Friday Service Play Thread 07/03/2020

BuzzKill · Jun 28, 2020

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BuzzKill · Jul 3, 2020

Newsletter - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=307&p=13175125&viewfull=1#post13175125

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Evangeline Downs - Race #6 - Post: 8:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 48

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 CARLENA (ML=4/1)

CARLENA - This mare should find these state breds easier than what she faced in her last contest on September 2nd. Ran last race out against tougher competition at Louisiana Downs. The move to a lower class rank should suit her well. Have to forget about that last race on the turf. This mare should do better hitting the main track right here in this race. You have to really like that most recent race speed fig, 44, which is the top recent race speed figure of this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 AWISHFORGREELEY (ML=9/5), #1 SHAKETHAHATERSOFF (ML=5/2), #2 GIDDY UP GEAUX (ML=6/1),

AWISHFORGREELEY - A bit of a less than stellar outing when this filly finished eighth. SHAKETHAHATERSOFF - That was merely not a very good display in the last race. GIDDY UP GEAUX - Likely won't make much of a mark this time around.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#5 CARLENA is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

07/03/20, GP, Race 8, 3.30 ET
07/03/20,GP,8,1M [Turf] 1:31:02 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000 (includes up to $4,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. Weight, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since April 3 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500, if for $10,500, allowed 2 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $10,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 120 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.0000 6 Keepsakekitten 7/2 Zayas E J Joseph. Jr. Saffie A. JTFEC 56.25 1.94/$1
096.6821 8 Uncle Andrew 5/2 Camacho S Maker Michael J. W 28.13 1.39/$1
096.6466 7 Verdict Is In 8-1 Reyes L Dibona Bobby S. S 28.13 1.39/$1
096.6343 9 Blazing Desire 2-1 Jaramillo E Sanchez Amador Merei L 33.90 1.09/$1
095.8374 3 Shanghai Moon 15-1 Lebron V Hurtak Daniel C. 17.14 1.35/$1
094.1673 1 Mr. Cesco 12-1 Trejos J Hurtak Daniel C. 33.90 1.09/$1
094.0019 4 Atakan 20-1 Lugo C D Sancal Murat 23.02 1.05/$1
093.6816 5 Scar 10-1 Vasquez M A Silva Daniel 33.90 1.09/$1
092.3315 2 Inconveyance 20-1 Panici L Biancone Patrick L. 28.13 1.39/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 21.05, ROI 0.60/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.0000 6 Keepsakekitten 7/2 Zayas E J Joseph. Jr. Saffie A. TFEC 35.92 1.19/$1
098.8131 9 Blazing Desire 2-1 Jaramillo E Sanchez Amador Merei SL 35.92 1.19/$1
097.9100 8 Uncle Andrew 5/2 Camacho S Maker Michael J. J 35.92 1.19/$1
096.5392 7 Verdict Is In 8-1 Reyes L Dibona Bobby S. 35.92 1.19/$1
095.7198 4 Atakan 20-1 Lugo C D Sancal Murat 35.92 1.19/$1
095.5483 2 Inconveyance 20-1 Panici L Biancone Patrick L. W 34.23 1.21/$1
094.0850 5 Scar 10-1 Vasquez M A Silva Daniel 35.92 1.19/$1
091.3989 3 Shanghai Moon 15-1 Lebron V Hurtak Daniel C. 35.92 1.19/$1
089.7512 1 Mr. Cesco 12-1 Trejos J Hurtak Daniel C. 35.92 1.19/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.10, ROI 1.02/$1

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Bob Weir

HORSE RACING

In January he crushed the Pegasus World Cup, giving out an $8 exacta and a $1 trifecta, winning $757.60. He nailed the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park on both April 9 and April 10, hitting for $827.65 and $394.65. On June 13 Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes that paid a whopping $1,039. And he hit the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park on June 18, 19, 25 and on Thursday with last week's score returning a whopping $2,159.50. Those are just some of his hits this year.

Belmont Park Race 7 (4:32 p.m. ET)
7 Magnolia's Lady (7-2) looks like the classic Linda Rice second-time starter who is well meant. Rice hits at 26 percent with second-time starters. In her debut, Magnolia's Lady was slow away and finished well to get fourth. Fitter in her second start, she has every chance.

12 Snicket (3-1) finished second in her last start, as the favorite. She could not get by a 47-1 first-time starter who held on to win. That's a little concerning, but she can definitely improve in her second time on turf. She's the one to beat but no cinch.

9 Pure Bode (8-1) is a first-time starter for trainer Mark Hennig. This setup isn't perfect for Hennig, but this homebred for Patricia Generazio is interesting. The dam has produced several turf runners, most notably Pure Sensation who's been one of the top East Coast turf sprinters for several years. Chance.

11 Fractorzation (6-1) ran OK in her comeback race on June 3. She's the one horse with form and a semblance of speed. If none of the first-time starters show speed, she might get a dream trip on the lead.

A: 7,9,12
B: 11

Belmont Park Race 8 (5:04 p.m. ET)
5 Bourbon Bay (4-1) finally drops back into a first-level allowance. After he cleared his maiden in December, the connections gave him a straight diet of state-bred stakes races (and one open attempt). He often ran competitively, so they kept trying. But after four attempts, the connections finally drop him into allowance company. He might be tough in here.

Trainer Rudy Rodriguez sends out a pair, 2 Yankee Division (2-1) and 2b Big Thicket (2-1). Ideally they will both go as Yankee Division looks like the speed in a paceless race, and Big Thicket can lay off and run late. Regardless, I will use one even if the other scratches.

Like Rodriguez, Orlando Noda sends out an entry, 1 Danny California (5-2) and 1a Vintage Hollywood (5-2). Both have run competitive speed figures and fit in here. Either is a must-use even if the other scratches.

3 Six Percent (9-2) returns as a gelding, moving into the James Jerkens barn. He had trouble closing the deal last year for Brad Cox but clearly fits. If the various changes work, he has a chance.

A: 1,2,5
B: 3

Belmont Park Race 9 (5:36 p.m. ET)
License Fee Stakes
8 Dalika (5-2) ran a huge race in her first attempt at a turf sprint. She may have found her calling. The extra half furlong here should only help. She's the one to beat. Single A.

I will use a few B horses in case Dalika doesn't transfer her form to Belmont. 2 A Great Time (10-1) ran an OK third off a long layoff and is eligible to improve in her second start back... In her last start, 3 Getmotherarose (6-1) ran on yielding turf against tougher. I'm willing to toss that race... A Jonathan Thomas trainee, 6 Escapade (9-2) always runs well and fits here on or near the lead.

A: 8
B: 2,3,6

Belmont Park Race 10 (6:08 p.m. ET)
9 Adios Amigos (5-2) was a little disappointing in his comeback run on the dirt, but this horse prefers the turf. He's the most likely winner with his first attempt at this level on the turf.

6 Shandian (6-1) and 7 Our Troubadour (3-1) are very similar looking horses. They've lost 12 and nine races respectively. I would normally throw them out, but they are clearly better on the turf, so they are not as hopeless as they look at first glance. There's not a lot to like in here, so I'll give them both a chance.

1 J's Warrior (12-1) is worth a look. His lone turf race was terrible, but that was his first start. He then immediately was laid off for 11 months. He has shown speed since returning, and maybe he can transfer that to the turf now that he's proven he can run a little.

10 Determined One (10-1) has run twice on turf, and both starts were going long against tougher. He showed some speed in his last start on dirt. Worth considering.

11 Mommie's Jewel (12-1) is anyone's guess with the switch to turf, but he's bred decently for the move. He also drops from maiden special. He has a chance if he takes to the surface.

A: 6,7,9
B: 1,10,11

Wagers
Preferred-A ticket
$2 Pick 4: 7,12 with 1,2,5 with 8 with 9 ($12)

All-A ticket
$1 Pick 4: 7,9,12 with 1,2,5 with 8 with 6,7,9 ($27)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 11 with 1,2,5 with 8 with 6,7,9 ($4.50)
$0.50 Pick 4: 7,9,12 with 3 with 8 with 6,7,9 ($4.50)
$0.50 Pick 4: 7,9,12 with 1,2,5 with 2,3,6 with 6,7,9 ($40.50)
$0.50 Pick 4: 7,9,12 with 1,2,5 with 8 with 1,10,11 ($13.50)

Total: $102

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 3, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

The 0.50 Late Pick 4 at Hawthorne Racecourse begins in Race 9. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout and will be my focus. If there ever was a Pick 4 devoid of form this would be it. But with randomness sometimes comes an opportunity for a nice payout.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 9

1-I Am Will (3-1)-Makes the 1st start for new connections, was claimed for $8,000 on 3/10 and now in for a $4,000 tag + allowances. 9-year-old doesn't take many pictures these days but this spot is about as soft as it will get.
4-Sports Creek (7-1)-Leonard's choice over #3 and #9 takes a considerable drop in 2nd start off the bench. This is only the 2nd race since 9/1/2018 but Leonard should keep in play versus a suspect bunch.
6-In Your Eye (5/2)-Program chalk is 1-23 which spans the past 2-years but does get a positive driver change as Husted takes a spin. Won here in March with a 155.2 mile and raced 155.4 last week in the slop, should contend here.

Race 10

1-Brooklyn Flight (5/2)-Drops and has had post #9 in both races off the restart. Could get sucked around from this spot and sneak by late.
4-I Dreamed A Dream (6-1)-10-year-old is 0-23 and that could be enough to avoid but the entire field has won only 34 races in 2019-2020. Last was better and now tries Lasix for the 2nd time.
5-Heartland Desire (9/2)-Did race better in the slop when dropped to this level last week. Trip dependent but can pass horses late so best to consider.
10-Dinky Dune (7/2)-Has won 11 of 53 at Haw, was used hard early in last and faded. Wilfong could leave and find a close-up seat without draining the tank this time. Could take a picture with the right trip.

Race 11

6-Parklane Eagle (7/2)-Beaten chalk got on the engine last time and just missed. Willis barn has been going well, may get the top tonight and not look back.
7-Park Official (9/2)-Nice effort in the slop last week and now drops. Looks like a player but will need Wilfong to work the right trip.

Race 12

1-Chick Magnet (2-1)-Broke at the start last week in the slop and had no chance in 1st try for new barn. Looking for better tonight and will respect connections. Does have the speed to cash the top check if minds manners.
8-Hello Rooster (7/2)-Even effort in the slop after winning on 6/21. Leonard was the winning pilot then and is back in the bike tonight. Should be in the hunt if finds a live cover flow.

0.50 Pick 4

1,4,6/1,4,5,10/6,7/1,8
Total Bet=$24

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Jeff Siegel's Day Makers - 7/3/20

July 3, 2020

JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL DAY MAKERS FOR FRIDAY, JULY 3, 2020
*

Jeff Siegel’s prime plays from around the country are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. Always the day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value and each selection should be given strong consideration both as a straight wager and as a key in vertical and horizontal exotics.
*

LOS ALAMITOS RACE COURSE – 3rd RACE. POST TIME 1:58 PT
2 – HARVEST MOON (8/5)

Made her debut in a difficult spot when facing a seasoned group of winners in a first-level allowance turf miler last month and actually acquitted herself very well. The daughter of Uncle Mo made a strong bid on the turn to loom a threat and then stayed on nicely to be beaten less than three lengths to a stakes-quality filly, and today surfaces in a maiden race over a Los Alamitos main track that she received all of her early training over. With the switch to F. Prat for a barn that is solid with second-timers, she looks like a logical play and rolling exotic single at anywhere near her morning line of 8/5.

*

BELMONT PARK – 9TH RACE. POST TIME: 5:36 ET
8 – DALIKA (5/2)

This German-bred filly seems to have found her niche as a late-running turf sprinter after a series of long distance races that really didn’t bring out her best. A visually pleasing win at Churchill Downs in late May – she won despite traffic trouble and was geared down late – was a smart way to return to competition after a five month vacation and not much more will be needed to land the A. Stall, Jr.-trained filly in the winner’s circle in this listed grass dash for fillies and mares. J. Rosario stays aboard and should have her free of trouble from her comfortable outside post position. There’s value here at 5/2 on the morning line if you can get it.

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#1 Movie Score Price player had a ton of stretch trouble at huge odds last time yet just missed when a neck behind in 3rd, and while the 63-1 is long gone today, that will still scare some, and it's not like she meets any world beaters here; upset special.
#6 Hetty G. Heavy hitter made her first dirt start for Ward a winning one at CD last time, while stalking and pouncing, and the dirt racing on that circuit has been strong this spring, which says this class rise won't deter her; seems the gal to beat.
#2 Kiny Sox Fellow N2L riser looked good drawing clear here last time while posting the best recent figure in the field, and a repeat puts her on the line with these, though you wonder if a regression is coming off such a big run; mixed signals here.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 1, and that makes the risk-reward enough to find out if the run last time was a fluke or not, so give her a look in all the spots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she's likely to fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win in the 6-1 range would add plenty of value to both sequences.

Belmont Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Topper T Stalker has been awful in his last two but now drops in class, and while blinkers is just a 1-for-33 move for Mott, this one will like getting away from an inside speed track like last time, has the best finisher in Rosario, and catches a field when literally every other runner he meets wants to be involved early in some way; mows them down late.
#6 Spokane Eagle CD invader rises in class off the Pino claim (15%) after a good 2nd against a weaker in Kentucky, but it's a great sign to see Irad to take the reigns here, and you'd think he can settle this veteran just a tad early too, which would help late, though there's little doubt he needs to improve more than a few lengths to get there first; exotics appeal.
#5 Eye Luv Lulu Unappealing ML favorite is one of the best off-track lovers in recent memory (20-8-5-2) but is just 3-for-35 on dry land, and many of those big runs were with the magician Dubb too, and while Atras is sharp too, improving off this barn is near impossible, not to mention the losing streak is at seven, and dates back a year and a half; no thanks.
Race Summary The race flow is the big bonus for the 3, as he's the one in here that has shown the ability to settle early and fire home late, so provided you get near that 6-1 ML you can play him in all the slots, while getting value by using him to end the early Pk5/Pk4, as a win in a toughie like this, in the $14 range, might play a lot longer in both sequences, and with such a positive race flow, he's getting all the best of it to pull it off.

Belmont Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#4 I'llhandalthecash Lightly raced and talented miss has teased more than a few times without winning and just had a nightmare trip at CD yet ran well to be a close 4th, gets a monumental jock upgrade to Jose Ortiz, and has the tactical speed to get the jump on the favorite; finally her time.
#8 Dalika Closer came off the break and mowed them down at CD last time, while lagging behind a crawling pace too, and Rosario fits her perfectly, as he's dynamic in these turf sprints, though spotting a few lengths to the pick off the turn won't make it easy; runs out of room late.
#3 Getmotherarose Fellow closer hasn't done a lot of running of late, but she came off the break and caught yielding ground last time, and was doing two turns before that, so she's back in her element here, and will get some pace, though getting there first is another question; using underneath.
Race Summary There's a decent chance the 4 simply isn't good enough against this kind, even if she puts it all together, but if you can sneak out 4-1 or so you can string along to find out one last time, so play her in all the slots, and in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she should offer value, and it's not like she's all that far behind the 8 to begin with, so if she does deliver, she may finally break through.

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#5 Patriot's War The barn doesn't get good numbers with debuters, but there are some serious questions about those who have run. He's bred to love the trip and may not need to be a star to score here.
#1 Substantial Looks like the one to beat, but he has never gone long and didn't show a whole lot last time out when going short. Wouldn't be that interested at something like the 8/5 ML offering.
#6 Asher's Music Didn't show much at a huge price in the debut, but the longer trip might offer some hope for improvement at a fair price.
Race Summary Patriot's War lands in what feels like a fairly modest spot for this debut run, and the barn has had a really good stretch over the last several months.

Ellis Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#9 Hard to Access Adds blinkers for this and brings a bullet work with her to this second try, and while she'll obviously need much better than she showed in the debut run, the equipment change that led to the recent work seems like a positive one.
#3 Sariah Sariah Has seemed to be working forwardly for this debut run, and she may still offer a playable kind of price. Useful here.
#6 Zebra Cake Debuter has a progressive looking worktab, the pedigree has some win-early appeal. Would want a fair offering on the board.
Race Summary Hard to Access is a bit of a shot here, but she has plenty of room to improve, and the addition of blinkers and the recent bullet work offer some hope that she's ready to do just that today.

Ellis Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#1 Truculent Has only run one bad one when last in the Grade I Champagne last year behind Tiz the Law, and the November FG graduation run was pretty solid. He handled the turf in his only run over it, and he's a logical alternative to the guy outside of him.
#2 Limnery The clear one to beat, but he always gets bet and really hasn't been a serious danger for the win inside the final sixteenth in most of his recent races. He can win here, but you're allowed to try and beat him.
#9 Clear for Action Speedy player sheds the blinkers today, and that might allow for a bit more relaxed trip today. His best stuff keeps him in the mix with the top pair.
Race Summary Truculent will need to fire fresh, but he has been heading in the right direction and handled the local turf nicely here last year

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #5
Picks Notes
#8 IDEAL WHEEL Loomed boldly, flattened out in comeback at Pocono.
#7 YUPPER Sustained first-over rally to catch the 3-to-5 favorite.
#1 IC A FREE SPIRIT Has a lot of seconds and thirds on resume, draws rail.
Race Summary Ideal Wheel raced close-up to the stretch but lost contact with the favorites through a :27 closing quarter at Pocono Downs. Early position will be the key to finding the winners’ circle today. Play 8-1 and 8-7 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 MAGICAL WINNER K Could be now or never to regain winning form from last year.
#2 Y A MUSCLEMAN Earned top recent speed figures, moves outside in, won nine times in ’19.
#8 PINK PISTOL Mare can use her speed well despite starting from post 8, use in exotics.
Race Summary Magical Winner K takes an all-or-nothing type class drop as he looks to recapture his 3-year-old form. He can be excused for drawing post 10 last week, lures McNair to drive and faces weak field. Play 6-2 and 6-8 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 PEAKY SNEAKY Could play spoiler with ideal set-up for top connections.
#7 I’M VERY SPECIAL Big number in latest, can rate, versatility comes in handy.
#2 LADY LOU Ran to fast qualifiers in popular victory, steps up in class.
Race Summary In a field loaded with speed, Peaky Sneaky could rally for an upset victory for a hot barn. She’s at least usable as part of a 2-5-7 exacta box.

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#8 Omaha City Pressed the pace and gave way inn his debut, which came on dirt. The Temple City colt is bred to run on grass and will likely have a significant improvement here. Gets Hall of Famer Prado along for the ride.
#10 Futmini Moves over to the turf after a third on debut. Improved position from the start and has a good chance to improve on grass.
#9 Ninja Has a long list of mostly decent works as he makes his debut today. Would not be a major surprise at 1st asking.
Race Summary Omaha City gave way on the dirt but is more suited for grass and be a threat from the start.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#4 Krammy Boy Was on the board in six of his last seven and was 3rd at this level last time. Can get the mile and the pace sets him up for a strong late move.
#3 French Quarter Was an easy winner against quality claimers, has often bounced around several levels and has been in many different barns. The 9-year-old is always eligible to bring his best for the trip.
#7 R U Lucky Was up in time in two of his last three and likely will be part of the pace; capable of sticking around.
Race Summary Krammy Boy can benefit from following a fast pace and is capable of getting past the front runners late in the game. Well suited for this one.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Champagne Bliss Improved position going short and should appreciate the mile. Makes her 3rd start off the claim by Nihei stable and can take aim at this group. One to hold off.
#4 Sky Chaser Was close up in sprints and has the chance to get on the front end here; fits very well here.
#8 Free to Fly Comes off a win going five furlongs and was claiming by Delgado stable; can be in the mix throughout.
Race Summary Champagne Bliss will have plenty of targets in this one and has shown the ability to finish; gets the ideal trip today.

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Derby - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $98150 Class Rating: 100

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, OLD SOUTH DERBY - FOR THREE YEAR OLD QUARTER HORSE FOALS OF 2017 WHICH HAVE QUALIFIED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE OLD SOUTH DERBY. WITH $25,000 ADDED PLUS ALL NOMINATION, SUSTAINING, AND SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION FEES WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AS FOLLOWS: 50% TO FIRST, 17% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 7% TO FOURTH, 6% TO FIFTH, 2% TO SIXTH, 2% TO SEVENTH, 2% TO EIGHTH, 2% TO

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 FREIGHTTRAIN REBA 15/1

# 2 MR TERESO 8/1

# 9 MS DIAMOND PRIZE 2/1

FREIGHTTRAIN REBA looks to be a competitive contender especially at a such a nice price. MR TERESO - Could provide positive profits based on very good recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 85. With Vivanco in the saddle guiding him, this gelding should be able to break out sharply in this contest. MS DIAMOND PRIZE - Has a strong shot in this contest if you like back class. Is a solid choice - given the 102 speed figure from her most recent race.

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

07/03/20, BEL, Race 9, 5.36 ET
07/03/20,BEL,9,6F [Inner Turf] 1:06:04 STAKES. License Fee Stakes. Purse $80,000. INNER TURF FOR FILLIES AND MARES, FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. By subscription of $100 each which should accompany the nomination. $200 to pass the entry box and an additional $200 to start. For horses not originally nominated a supplemental payment of $1,000 (along with the entry and starting fees) may be made at any time prior to the closing of entries. The purse to be divided 55% to the owner of the winner, 20% to second, 12% to third, 6% to fourth, 4% to fifth and 3% divided equally amongst the remaining finishers. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners of a sweepstake in 2019-20 allowed 2 lbs., of two races other maiden, claiming, starter or state-bred allowance in 2020 allowed 4 lbs.; of such a race since then allowed 6 lbs (overnight race scratch rules will apply). Closed Saturday, June 20, 2020 with 24 Original Nominations and 2 Supplements. (Rail at 9 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.0000 1 Bridlewood Cat 4-1 Ortiz. Jr. I Thomas Jonathan J 34.12 1.10/$1
098.8030 8 Dalika (GER) 5/2 Rosario J Stall. Jr. Albert M. 34.12 1.10/$1
098.6670 7 Miss Auramet 6-1 Saez L Duarte. Jr. Jorge TFL 34.12 1.10/$1
097.6871 6 Escapade 9/2 Castellano J Thomas Jonathan S 34.12 1.10/$1
096.6103 4 I'llhandalthecash 5-1 Ortiz J L Handal Raymond 34.12 1.10/$1
095.5382 2 A Great Time 10-1 Velazquez J R Trombetta Michael J. W 34.12 1.10/$1
094.5288 3 Getmotherarose 6-1 Lezcano J Bush Thomas M. EC 34.12 1.10/$1
094.5075 5 Souper Escape 12-1 Franco M Trombetta Michael J. 34.12 1.10/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 38.81, ROI 1.22/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.0000 1 Bridlewood Cat 4-1 Ortiz. Jr. I Thomas Jonathan J 44.00 1.04/$1
099.9700 7 Miss Auramet 6-1 Saez L Duarte. Jr. Jorge TFL 44.00 1.04/$1
099.5860 6 Escapade 9/2 Castellano J Thomas Jonathan S 44.00 1.04/$1
098.9990 8 Dalika (GER) 5/2 Rosario J Stall. Jr. Albert M. 41.79 1.14/$1
097.8625 4 I'llhandalthecash 5-1 Ortiz J L Handal Raymond 41.79 1.14/$1
097.5562 5 Souper Escape 12-1 Franco M Trombetta Michael J. 41.79 1.14/$1
097.3758 2 A Great Time 10-1 Velazquez J R Trombetta Michael J. W 41.79 1.14/$1
096.2876 3 Getmotherarose 6-1 Lezcano J Bush Thomas M. EC 41.79 1.14/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 20.83, ROI 0.51/$1

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Monmouth Park - Race #5 - Post: 7:00pm - Stakes - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $75,000 Class Rating: 111 Oceanport Centennial S.

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 FACTOR IT IN (ML=6/1)
#3 AMERICAN PASTIME (ML=4/1)

FACTOR IT IN - This colt has been posting some excellent workout times. AMERICAN PASTIME - This horse is in the top spot in earnings per race. Give the once over to this animal in the post parade.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 CHATEAU (ML=5/2), #6 AWESOME ANYWHERE (ML=3/1), #7 MIDTOWNCHARLYBROWN (ML=5/1),

CHATEAU - You think this animal is going to win today just because he's always close. Just doesn't get the job done regularly. I think this morning-line choice needs this race under his belt to start getting back into shape. AWESOME ANYWHERE - Today's race is 5 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance event in the last sixty days. Not the best of indicators. MIDTOWNCHARLYBROWN - Can't invest in this runner in today's sprint of 5 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint event recently. If today's race shapes up right, all the speed horses will force a ferocious speed battle early. Too bad this horse is one of those front runners.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #2 FACTOR IT IN to win if we can get at least 9/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [2,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $37000 Class Rating: 90

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 ASHER'S MUSIC 8/1

# 2 PAINISMYGAIN 12/1

# 1 SUBSTANTIAL 8/5

ASHER'S MUSIC is my selection and is a respectable value bet given the line. He has to be considered given the respectable speed figs. Ought to come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved rapidly to the lead recently. Has to be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last race. PAINISMYGAIN - Has been racing well and has among the most respectable speed in the race for today's distance. Over time, this trainer has a quite good ROI at this distance/surface. SUBSTANTIAL - He has been running well as of late while recording solid speed figs. Morse has him trained soundly to break swiftly out of the starting gate.

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Alan Scozzari

GUARANTEED B WAGER
Italy Serie B Chievo 0 -0,5 +110

TIP OF THE DAY C WAGER
Poland Ekstraklasa LKS Lodz – Wisla UNDER 2,5 +110

bmd1803 · Jul 3, 2020

Micah Roberts

HOT DOG!!!

12:40 ET

Joey Chestnut and Miki Sudo will try to extend their dominance in the world's premier hunger game when they take on the best competitive eaters in the world in the 2020 Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest on July 4th. Chestnut, a 12-time champion, is a -1400 favorite in the men's competition, while Sudo, a six-time winner, is a -700 favorite on the women's side. The event starts at Noon ET from Coney Island in New York.

SportsLine analyst Micah Roberts has broken down the odds for the competitors and the number of hot dogs that will be consumed. A former Vegas Bookmaker who follows the hot dog competition closely.

Men's competition
Joey Chestnut -1400
Field (Any other competitor) +700
PICK: This is where a point spread of laying hog dogs would be helpful to even out the odds. No one wants to lay -1400 when the competitors haven't been named. But with Chestnut winning 12 times in the past 13 years and setting his best marks in the last four years says there is no one in his class. His results the past four years have been aided by the embarrassment of losing to Matt Stonie in 2015. Because of the coronavirus pandemic, no crowd will be pushing him, but he'll still win.

Over/Under total eaten by men's winner
Over 72.5 -150
Under 72.5 +120
PICK: Chestnut has topped this number only once, and while he won't be in front of the fans and air-conditioning could help, I'll go with the trends and stay under 72.5.

Will Joey Chestnut break his own record of 74 hot dogs eaten?
No -180
Yes +150
PICK: This price is interesting considering No is such a big favorite when Over 72.5 was favored. Anyway, I'll take No and lay the price.

Women's competition
Miki Sudo -700
Field (Any other competitor) +400
PICK: Miki Sudo has won the last five Nathan's contests for women and should do it again.

Over/Under total eaten by women's winner
Over 36.5 -160
Under 36.5 +130
PICK: Sudo won last year but ate "only" 31 hot dogs, which is the fewest amount she's consumed while winning. Her most was 41 in 2017. Under is the play.

ivyconniver · Jul 3, 2020

Anyone have Machine’s hammer play, overnight baseball. Thx

Friday Service Play Thread 07/03/2020

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