Sunday Service Play Thread 07/05/2020

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Newsletter - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=307&p=13175125&viewfull=1#post13175125

Mike McClure

NASCAR

The model began its season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven top-10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and Toyota 500 at Darlington. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in a bet for Hamlin at 10-1 for his win at Miami. And in both races at Pocono, two of the model's top three racers finished first and second.


The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Kevin Harvick (4-1)
2. Joey Logano (12-1)
3. Denny Hamlin (4-1)
4. Kyle Busch (9-2)
5. Brad Keselowski (9-1)
6. Ryan Blaney (12-1)
7. Martin Truex Jr. (15-2)
8. Chase Elliott (15-1)
9. Kurt Busch (28-1)
10. Clint Bowyer (40-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11. William Byron
12. Erik Jones
13. Alex Bowman
14. Aric Almirola
15. Jimmie Johnson
16. Matt Kenseth
17. Matt DiBenedetto
18. Tyler Reddick
19. Christopher Bell
20. Ryan Newman
21. Austin Dillon
22. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
23. Chris Buescher
24. Bubba Wallace
25. Cole Custer
26. John Hunter Nemechek
27. Ryan Preece
28. Michael McDowell
29. Ty Dillon
30. Daniel Suarez
31. Timmy Hill
32. Brennan Poole
33. Quin Houff
34. JJ Yeley
35. Corey Lajoie
36. Joey Gase
37. Garrett Smithle

-----

Mike McClure

NASCAR

Joey Logano +1200
Clint Bowyer +4000

Joey Logano +110 vs. Brad Keselowski
Martin Truex +150 vs. Kyle Busch

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Kevin Harvick (4-1)
2. Joey Logano (12-1)
3. Denny Hamlin (4-1)
4. Kyle Busch (9-2)
5. Brad Keselowski (9-1)
6. Ryan Blaney (12-1)
7. Martin Truex Jr. (15-2)
8. Chase Elliott (15-1)
9. Kurt Busch (28-1)
10. Clint Bowyer (40-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 William Byron
12 Erik Jones
13 Alex Bowman
14 Aric Almirola
15 Matt Kenseth
16 Matt DiBenedetto
17 Justin Allgaier
18 Tyler Reddick
19 Christopher Bell
20 Ryan Newman
21 Austin Dillon
22 Ricky Stenhouse Jr
23 Chris Buescher
24 Bubba Wallace
25 Cole Custer
26 Ross Chastain
27 John H. Nemechek
28 Ty Dillon
29 Michael McDowell
30 Daniel Suarez
31 Ryan Preece
32 Corey Lajoie
33 Timmy Hill
34 BJ McLeod
35 JJ Yeley
36 Brennan Poole
37 Quin Houff
38 Garrett Smithley
39 Josh Bilicki
40 Joey Gase

Micah Roberts

NASCAR

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to one of the country's most storied sporting venues on Sunday when the flag drops on the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The green flag drops at 4 p.m. ET. Former Vegas Bookmaker Micah Roberts, who was the first to offer expanded NASCAR betting, now hands out NASCAR winners to his followers on SportsLine.

Roberts is the nation's premier NASCAR betting expert, and his top pick won the first two races of the 2020 season. In the season-opening Daytona 500, he nailed Denny Hamlin's win at 10-1 odds, and he hit eventual winner Joey Logano at 13-2 odds in the Pennzoil 400 a week later. He also nailed Hamlin's victory in the Toyota 500 last month, even though he wasn't one of the top three favorites.

Roberts also crushed the 2019 NASCAR season. Those who wagered $100 on Roberts' predicted winner in each of the 40 NASCAR races last year (an investment of $4,000) finished with a strong profit of $2,100. In addition, those who put down $50 on each of Roberts' top four choices in each of those races (an investment of $8,000) were up a head-turning $3,400.


Here is Roberts' analysis:

The NASCAR Cup Series will be racing for the 27th time on the famed bricks of Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Sunday's Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400. The bonus we all get this week is that the set-ups used on the cars in the two races last week at Pocono will be used at Indy. There's no practice or qualifying this week, but the two Pocono race results serve better than a practice for Indy.

Here's how I see things unfolding Sunday:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (4-1) -- He's never won at the Brickyard, which is surprising because his best tracks have always been of the flat variety, such as the 2.5-mile Indy layout. The reason Hamlin gets the nod here is because of what he did last week at Pocono, finishing runner-up on Saturday and winning on Sunday. Those set-up notes are still fresh, and the only track that is similar to Pocono's 2.5-mile triangle layout is Indy with each track having the longest straights in the series. His four wins and nine top-fives this season lead the series. This is one of the races he's yet to check off his list of things to do.

2) #4 Kevin Harvick (7-2) -- Just like Hamlin, Harvick came away with a win and a runner-up over the weekend at Pocono. But he's been his best at the Brickyard with two wins, the last coming in 2019. He also leads all active drivers with an 8.9 average finish between 19 Brickyard starts.

3) #18 Kyle Busch (9-2) -- The defending Cup Series Champion still doesn't have a win after 15 races, and he sits third in points among drivers with no wins. He was fifth at Pocono on Saturday but wasn't ever considered a candidate to win. He grinded his way to a top-five, his seventh of the season. The top reason to believe in him this week is that he's won the Brickyard 400 twice and has led the most laps (324) among active drivers.

4) #10 Aric Almirola (30-1) -- He is a must-play this week in all betting strategies because you can see his team stepping up its game and giving him cars capable of winning. His first 11 starts included no top-fives. In his last four starts he's had four, the most important coming at Pocono where he was one of three drivers to finish in the top-five of both weekend races. He led a race-high 61 laps on Saturday before finishing third behind Harvick and Hamlin. Pocono and Indy use similar set-ups.

5) #2 Brad Keselowski (9-1) -- In last year's race he was involved in an early wreck and finished 38th, but before that, he had almost always found his way to the front and led laps. In 2018 he won the Brickyard 400, and in 2017 he was runner-up. He's been sitting on two wins since winning the Coca-Cola 600 on May 24.

6) #14 Clint Bowyer (40-1) -- He's part of the Stewart-Haas Racing team that produced fast cars for Harvick and Almirola. He was eighth or better in the two Pocono races last weekend. He was fifth in each of the last two Brickyard races.

7) #24 William Byron (35-1) -- There were no signs last weekend that Chevrolet had anything for Harvick or Hamlin, and that may be the case again, but this is a good track for him. He was fourth last season and seventh at Pocono last week. He also won a 2017 Xfinity Series race at the Brickyard.

8) #22 Joey Logano (12-1) -- He has the second-best average finish at Indy (10.9) among active drivers, and that includes two runner-up finishes (2015, 2019). The concern with him has to do with the lack of speed using this week's race package with engines producing 550 horsepower. He doesn't have a top-five in nine of his last 10 starts using the package. His two wins this season came before the pandemic shutdown.

9) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (17-2) -- He's had a lot of poor luck at Indy, particularly the last three seasons with finishes of 27th or worse in what have been his prime years everywhere else. He has only one top-five in 15 starts and a 21st-place average finish at Indy. But what's most concerning is his team's current form: He has one top-five in 10 races using this week's race package.

10) #12 Ryan Blaney (12-1) -- He's had seven top-fives and a win this season but didn't run well at Pocono, which is a huge indicator as to how drivers will run at Indy. He had his best career effort at Indy last year with a seventh-place finish in his fifth start there.

11) #9 Chase Elliott (15-1) -- Indy has been one of his worst tracks, with a 19th-place average finish, but he did score a career-best ninth-place last season. The good news is he's been very good with this week's race package and finished fourth with it at Pocono on Sunday.

12) #48 Jimmie Johnson (50-1) -- He's the active leader with four Brickyard 400 wins, and this is likely to be his last race on the famed track. His last win came in 2012, and his last top-five came in 2016. He has only one top-five using this week's race package, and it came at Las Vegas; nine races have passed since then. It's part of the reason his odds have risen.

13) #20 Erik Jones (22-1) -- He's good at Indy just because he's one of the best at Pocono, where he finished third on Sunday. He's been involved in accidents in two of his three Indy starts but was runner-up in 2018. He's a good longshot play just because of having a fast Joe Gibbs Racing car.

14) #88 Alex Bowman (30-1) -- The power he showed during a Fontana win and a runner-up at Darlington has been non-existent. He has had no top-fives using this race package since Darlington. The drought began about the same time he got a contract extension. He went from single-digit odds to a 30-1 longshot.

15) #1 Kurt Busch (30-1) -- This hasn't been his best track over his career. As a rookie in 2001, he finished fifth, and that remains his only top-five after 18 other starts. One of the defining moments of his career came in 2002 when, after being wrecked by Jimmy Spencer, Busch got out of his car, waited for Spencer to come around and motioned wildly. That started his string of poor luck at the Brickyard.

16) #3 Austin Dillon (125-1) -- He's sitting 17th in points, one spot away from the final playoff position. He's been consistent this season and also at Indy, where he ran 12th last year and has two other top-10 finishes.

17) #42 Matt Kenseth (125-1) -- He's had lots of success at Indy over the years but has never won there. Still, three runner-ups and nine top-fives between 19 starts are impressive. But he's had only one top-10 this season since taking over for Kyle Larson.

18) #41 Cole Custer (300-1) -- The rookie gets a strong look only because his three Stewart-Haas Racing teammates had great cars at Pocono last week, all finishing eighth or better between the two races.

19) #8 Tyler Reddick (100-1) -- It's hard to dismiss all the speed he had at Homestead three weeks ago when he was running in the top-five most of the race and finished fourth. Keep in mind that Richard Childress Racing gave Paul Menard his only career Cup win at the Brickyard.

20) #6 Ryan Newman (100-1) -- The Indiana native captured the 2013 Brickyard 400 win from the pole for Stewart-Haas Racing. He was third in 2017 and eighth last season in his first year driving for Roush Fenway Racing.

Bob Weir

HORSE RACING

On June 13 Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes that paid a whopping $1,039. And he hit the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park on June 18, 19, 25 and July 2 with the June 25 score returning a whopping $2,159.50. Those are just some of his hits this year.


Belmont Park Race 7 (4:32 p.m. ET)
6 Stone Tornado (2-1) looked like a potential winner midway through the stretch in her last start. She maybe moved a little early into a fast pace and was caught, but she should improve out of that race. A more relaxed ride at a mile can take this.

7 Madeleine Must (8-1) comes out of Stone Tornado's race and definitely appeared to need that race off the layoff. She stayed close to the pace inside Stone Tornado and then was flat in stretch, but she didn't completely cave in. Like the top pick, she should improve and has a chance to upset at an improved price.

In her last race, 5 Madita (5-2) was clear on easy lead, and I loved the performance. There's a chance she may get a similar trip depending on the tactics of others. If they let her roll early, she can repeat.

8 She's Got You (4-1) makes her first start in the U.S. for trainer Chad Brown. She did race credibly at Newmarket and Ascot for John Gosden and appears to have talent. She could be ready off the bench.

9 Chaleur (7-2) lost as the favorite in her U.S. debut at Churchill Downs. The winner was 74-1, which is a red flag for me. That run was at nine furlongs off the layoff, and the turnback to one mile could work. I don't love her, but I must include her at the "B" level.

A: 5,6,7
B: 8,9

Belmont Park Race 8 (5:04 p.m. ET)
8 Tale of the Union (2-1) lost all chance at the start in his last race. He still put in a run three-wide on the turn in the slop before tiring down the stretch and finishing a distant third. He has continued to train well since that race and makes his third start back after a long layoff. The one to beat.

7 Quickflash (3-1) was able to get the better of Tale of the Union in his last race and adds blinkers today. If I'm being too forgiving of Tale of the Union's last race, Quickflash is a logical player.

6 Kid d'Oro (12-1) tried a 1 1/16-mile race in his last start, his first for trainer Kelly Breen after leaving the barn of Jason Servis. He predictably tired in that race but should be tighter on Sunday. Upset chance.

2 Big Thicket (5-2) ran well in his last start and won, surviving an inquiry that could have gone the other way. He was best that day and could fit at this level after improving off the claim for trainer Rudy Rodriguez.

A: 8
B: 2,6,7

Belmont Park Race 9 (5:36 p.m. ET)
This is a good seven-furlong allowance race with two of the top contenders exiting the June 7 First Defence stakes at Belmont. I will give Chad Brown's 2 Delaware (5-1) another shot. He had a middling run in his U.S. debut, never looking particularly comfortable. He switches to jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and can improve for Brown making his second start off the layoff.

6 Majestic Dunhill (4-1) finished a close second in the First Defence race. A repeat of that effort puts him right there.

7 Front Run the Fed (3-1) is the second in here for Chad Brown and returns off a disappointing fourth as the favorite in his Churchill Downs return. The last time he ran this distance at Belmont, he had a career-high Beyer Speed Figure (99) and won by 13. Obvious player.

I will give 5 Vici (15-1) an outside chance. In the First Defence he set a fast pace and was caught late. He's the clear speed again and could be tighter in his second start back.

A: 2,6,7
B: 5

Belmont Park Race 10 (6:08 p.m. ET)
The sequence ends with a wide-open six-furlong sprint on the turf for New York breds. I'll spread a little. 6 More Like It (6-1) ran pretty well in his last start at this level. He encountered a little trouble but tried hard to the end. He can improve.

In his debut race as a 2-year-old, 7 Sanctuary City (9-2) earned a Beyer Speed Figure that's the best in this field. In his second start he tried to stretch out but ran evenly without making a real bid. He looks best on paper, but I'm concerned with the barn change to trainer James Ferraro. The return to a sprint distance makes sense, and he may just be better than these, but there are some things to keep me from making him a single.

8 Striking Causeway (7-2) showed big speed in his first turf attempt, finishing third in the More Like It race. This 4-year-old could be the speed of the speed. Wire-to-wire chance.

On the B line, I will use four more: 2 Boom Boom Kaboom (12-1) may have needed the last race, and he can improve in his second start back for trainer George Weaver (who wins at 29 percent with runners making their second start after a 45- to 180-day layoff)... The turf sprints 4 Smite (12-1) ran as a 2-year-old were not bad. Any natural maturity as a 3-year-old could close the gap here... 5 Spiritual King (4-1) turns back after showing speed and stopping at longer. Moving horses up off Todd Pletcher is difficult, but he fits moving back into state-bred races... Trainer Horacio Depaz is 3-for-6 at the meet and is winning at 26 percent on the year. His stable is not big, but everything is running right now. 1 Silver Token (6-1) has a chance off the layoff and trainer change.

A: 6,7,8
B: 1,2,4,5

Wagers
Preferred-A ticket
$2 Pick 4: 6,7 with 8 with 2 with 6,7,8 ($12)

All-A ticket
$1 Pick 4: 5,6,7 with 8 with 2,6,7, with 6,7,8 ($27)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 8,9 with 8 with 2,6,7, with 6,7,8 ($9)
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,6,7 with 2,6,7 with 2,6,7, with 6,7,8 ($40.50)
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,6,7 with 8 with 5 with 6,7,8 ($4.50)
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,6,7 with 8 with 2,6,7, with 1,2,4,5 ($18)

Total: $111

TERRY TURRELL LOS ALAMITOS QUARTERS HANDICAP, SUNDAY, JULY 5, 2020

FIRST POST IS 5:25 P.M.

FIRST RACE

#1 VIVIAN’S BOY might have been best in his last start losing ground on the far turn finishing bit late to be second at 7-1 odds, draws the rail tonight and once again will be protected facing field at this 1000-yard distance. #6 WESTERN SMOKE has steady works to his credit since last Santa Anita start in February for trainer Craig Dollase, adding blinkers tonight with jockey Edwin Maldonado aboard. #3 HAIR OF THE CAT exits same heat as the top pick finishing third, beat one-half length, for trainer Brian Koriner and jockey Barrington Harvey. Longshot - #5 GENIAL CHARLIE

SECOND RACE

#5 TROMADOR claimed out of his last Santa Anita in June and is not stranger to Los Alamitos and this 1000-yard distance, making first start for trainer Richard Rosales, reunited and runs well for jockey Ramon Guce. #2 CHICO BABY veteran at 870-yards turned in solid effort testing 1000-yards for the first time finishing second, beat a head, at 7-1 odds, cannot be ignored for and reunited with winning jockey Vinnie Bednar. #6 SPARKLING GEM breezed at this 1000-yard distance making only second career start and is the other runner from the Brian Pitnick barn. Longshot - #1 DERBY FACTOR

THIRD RACE

#3 DF DOCS BEST DOLLAR missed the break facing tougher and drops in class tonight for veteran conditioner Jaime Gomez, jockey Jesus Ayala aboard for the first time. #8 VERBOSE first time starter for trainer James Glenn, who is winning at a twenty-two percent win clip this meet, and he draws the outside post in field of eight, jockey Oscar Andrade aboard. #7 NEON MOON SHINE filly in the barn of John Cooper spotted at competitive level for her career debut, after the top choice this field blends together. Longshot - #2 THREE ALARM

FOURTH RACE

#3 DIVA ON FIRE missed the break in both her career starts for high percent conditioner Mike Robbins, winning at a twenty-six percent win clip, and will be adding the Flipping Halter tonight, jockey Oscar Peinado sticks. #6 TEARFULLY lost all chance at the start returns to her best distance of 300-yards for trainer James Glenn, will have the services of jockey Vinnie Bednar tonight drawing the outside post in field of six. #2 DA BLUE DIABLITA improved to be second making her fourth career start and will keep pressure on the top two. Longshot - #4 SWEETIE CARTEL

FIFTH RACE

#2 JUST A DASHA HERO exiting a tough Trial heat in a better then looked effort finishing fourth at 41-1 odds for trainer Jose Flores and jockey Erasmo Gasca, drops into as good spot for his first career win. #4 KENNY WAYNE will move up off with racing experience in his first career start for conditioner Matthew Fales and jockey Vinnie Bednar. #6 MAGICAL PRIZE battled from flag to wire finishing second at 9-1 odds making firs start for trainer Jesus Nunez, draws the outside post in field of six with jockey Cruz Mendez at the controls for the first time. Longshot - #1 DELIGHTED

SIXTH RACE

#3 JSGSTROKERSLITTLESIS three wins from her last four starts and was eliminated at the start when breaking poorly for trainer Roberto Dominguez, adding the Flipping Halter and reunited with jockey Oscar Andrade who was aboard for those three victories. #5 FIRES AWAY popular at the claim box making third start for third new barn off recent claim by trainer Jesus Mendoza, jockey Guillermo Suarez aboard tonight. #4 MINI SPEIGHTS in a contentious five horse field from top to bottom the trip will determine the winner, trainer Patricia Visscher will give a leg up to jockey Jesus Ayala tonight, adding the Flipping Halter. Longshot - #2 OLIVERSSWEETPRINCES

SEVENTH RACE

#2 MIA CARTEL three wins from five starts this year and not worse than third will be making her second start for trainer Paul Jones off $16,000 claim, winning jockey Oscar Andrade retains the assignment. #5 CHECK MY CARTEL fresh off solid victory for trainer Lindolfo Diaz drawing the outside post in field of five tonight, adding the Flipping Halter, jockey Jesus Ayala no stranger having been the pilot for two of his three career wins. #3 CHANCER claimed and confidently raised in class making first start for trainer Valentin Zamudio and jockey Ruben Lozano. Longshot #1 UNIQUE WAYS

EIGHTH RACE

#6 MISTER APPOLITICAL nine wins from fourteen wins working on his sixth consecutive victory in The Vessels Maturity, trainer Terry Knight has gelding on edge and primed for another big effort, jockey Jesus Ayala aboard. #8 CHOCOLATITO has been the bridesmaid in last two starts facing the top choice but this sharp gelding in the Scott Willoughby barn more than capable of the upset tonight, jockey Vinnie Bednar aboard. #9 GET AWAY CAR beat a neck by the top pick in his Trial for the Vessels Maturity for trainer Rodolfo Viamontes and jockey Armando Viramontes, adding the Flipping Halter. Longshot - #3 JESS MACHO CORONA

Best Chance Bet – JUSTA A DASHA HERO (4)

Best Bet – MIA CARTEL (7)

Jeff Jeter

Kevin Harvick +500- Kevin started the 2019 race at Indy on the pole and came away with the victory. Harvick led 118 if the 160 total laps of the 2019 Indy race. Harvick won at Pocono back last Saturday, and that victory was his first at Pocono Raceway. Harvick has the best average driver rating over the last 2 Indy races at 128.6. Also, Keving has the best average driver rating over the last 8 races between Indy and Pocono of 123. I would be getting action in early on Harvick as the price will go down.

Denny Hamlin +600- Denny won the previous race on the Cup Series circuit back on Sunday at Pocono. Denny has never won at Indianapolis, but he has come close a few times in his career. Over the last 2 Indy races, Denny has the 2nd best average finish of 4.5 and the 3rd best average driver rating of 109.6. Denny traditionally runs well at Indy and Pocono, and over the last 8 races has 7 top 10 finishes at these 2 tracks. I am looking for Denny to keep this momentum going at Indy this weekend, and he must be in consideration.

Kyle Busch +650- Kyle Busch has no doubt been having a very frustrating 2020 Cup Series season. The crash back on Sunday at Pocono was unfortunate, but back on Saturday at Pocono finished 5th. Over the last 8 races at Pocono and Indy, Kyle has an average driver rating of 110.5 which is 3rd best among active drivers. I have been off Kyle over the last few weeks, but I think it’s time we get back on the wagon. Indy is another track for Kyle to get back to winning ways, and needs to be considered for Sunday afternoon.

Clint Bowyer +2600- Clint is my dark horse pick to win on Sunday at Indianapolis. Clint has 5 top 10 finishes over the last 8 races at Indy and Pocono. Clint has an average 9th place finish in the last 8 races at Indy and Pocono with an average driver rating of 99.7. Over the last 2 races at Indianapolis, Bowyer has the 2nd best average driver rating of 118.1. Clint has top 5 upside here at Indy, and I will have a little bit of action on him to win the race on Sunday.

Aric Almirola +4200- Aric is my long shot play for the Indianapolis race on Sunday. Almirola has an average driver rating of 93.1 over the last 8 races between Indy and Pocono. Most of Almirola’s success had come at Pocono, as he has struggled at Indy over the last 2 races. Almirola ran very well Saturday at Pocono finishing 3rd and he had a great run Sunday at Pocono finishing 5th. Almirola has put together some solid finishes over the last 5 Cup series races in 2020, and I have no issues with him on Sunday.

Match Ups

Kyle Busch -115 vs. Denny Hamlin -115

Denny has won 5 of the 8 match ups against Kyle in the races mentioned above. The flat 2.5 mile tracks fit Denny’s style really well, and no doubt Kyle has been excellent as well at Indy and Pocono. Over the last 8 races between Pocono and Indy, Hamlin has an average driver rating of 114, while Kyle has an average driver rating of 110.5. The matchup between Denny and Kyle has been close over the last 8 races. At this moment, I feel Denny is a touch faster than Kyle, so I will lean to Denny in this matchup.

Denny Hamlin -115

Brad Keselowski -115 vs. Joey Logano -115

Brad has won 6 of the last 8 matchups against Joey at Indy and Pocono Raceway. Brad won the 2018 race at Indy, but wasn’t so lucky in 2019 has he was involved in a crash on lap 48. Joey has run well at Indy over the last 2 races with an average finish of 7.5, but has struggled at Pocono over the last 6 races. The matchup between teammates Keselowski and Logano is closer than the statics tell us on paper. I think Keselowski can finish ahead of Logano at Indy this weekend, but I expect it to be close.

Brad Keselowski -115

Chase Elliott -115 vs. Martin Truex Jr. -115

Chase has won 5 of the matchups mentioned above, and Truex has won 3. Chase has an average finish of 14th in the races mentioned in the intro, and Truex has an average finish of 17.13. On paper, Truex and Elliott are close at the 2.5 flat tracks. Truex has struggled in the last 2 races at Indy finishing 27th in 2019 and 40th in 2018. Chase has performed way better than Truex at Indy with an average 12th place finish. I will take Chase over Truex at Indy on Sunday

Chase Elliott -115

Ryan Newman -115 vs. Ricky Stenhouse Jr. -115

Newman has outrun Ricky 6 times over the last 8 races between Indy and Pocono Raceway. Over the last 8 races at Indy/Pocono, Newman has an average finish of 14.25 with 3 top 10s and 4 top 20 finishes. Stenhouse has an average finish of 23.25 with only 3 top 20s in the 8 races mentioned above. Newman and Ricky split Pocono 1 and 1 last weekend, but I still think Newman will prevail. Newman finished 10th at Indy in 2018 and finished 8th in the 2019 race. I will take Newman over Stenhouse.

Ryan Newman -115

Jeff Siegel's Day Makers - 7/05/20

July 5, 2020

JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL DAY MAKERS FOR SUNDAY, JULY 5, 2020
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Jeff Siegel’s prime plays from around the country are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. Always the day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value and each selection should be given strong consideration both as a straight wager and as a key in vertical and horizontal exotics.
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GULFSTREAM PARK – 9th RACE. POST TIME: 4:00 ET
6 – PRINCESS SECRET (9/2)

Tackles the boys in this first-level allowance sprint but should be too quick for this group and clearly is doing well since her debut romp in early May, having just breezed five furlongs in :58 4/5 at over the deeper Gulfstream Park West main track. The daughter of Khozan is comfortably drawn outside so she can stalk and pounce if the situation dictates, but we’re thinking that she won’t be waiting around for anybody. At 9/2 on the morning line she’ll offer considerable value both in the win pool and especially in the rolling exotics.

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BELMONT PARK – 7th RACE. POST TIME: 4:32 ET
6 – STONE TORNADO (2-1)

Was extremely well-meant in her U. S. debut in a similar second-level allowance turf affair last month but was caught very wide without cover every step of the way and paid the price close home when worn down to wind up third beaten a half-length in a fast, highly-rated affair. The lightly-raced import shows two easy breezes since that race, retains I. Ortiz, and was a listed stakes winner in France at this distance last summer, so if she can settle in behind leaders and find room to rally when called upon the C. Brown-trained filly should be along in time. We’ll embrace her morning line of 2-1 in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play if we can get it.

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BELMONT PARK – 8th RACE. POST TIME: 5:04 ET
8 -TALE OF THE UNION (2-1)

This lightly-raced but talented son of Union Rags is trying to make amends (again) after twice failing as the favorite in his first two outings since returning off a long layoff. He really should have no excuses. Two runs back he was simply dead short in his first outing in 21 months and then in his most recent start he stood in the gate and lost all chance at the break. Today, he’s drawn comfortably outside in a sprint with a modest amount of early speed, so the B. Baffert-trained hopefully will load last, break first, and then settle into an ideal stalking or pressing position before kicking on with it when called upon. A recent half mile bullet breeze 46 3/5, fastest of 43) should have him on edge, so at 2-1 on the morning line he’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

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BELMONT PARK – 9TH RACE. POST TIME: 5:36 ET
2 – DELAWARE (GB) (5-1)

French graded stakes winner was below his best form in his U.S. debut last month, getting shuffled back early in heavy traffic and then failing to produce his typical late kick when eighth beaten five lengths vs. listed stakes foes over this course and distance. Today, the son of Frankel adds Lasix and blinkers for the first time and switches to I. Ortiz while dropping into the conditioned allowance ranks, so we’re expecting the English-bred colt to deliver his best stuff. If he leaves cleanly from his inside draw the C. Brown-trained colt should be prominent throughout and have dead aim at the head of the lane. At 5-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic key.

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 5, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Hawthorne Racecourse has 13-races ready to roll with the 0.50 Late Pick 4 set to begin in Race 10. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout and it will be my focus.

The driver with the hottest hands on Saturday was Casey Leonard with five trips to the winner's circle. The top conditioner on the card was Derek Burklund with two wins.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

2-Spicy Lil Hope (2-1)-Program chalk has hit the board in 3 of 10 starts all of which were at Haw. Barn still isn't rolling but has enough ability to beat this crew. Husted needs to be close to the lead turning for the wire.
6-Dancin Eyes (7/2)-Last outing was the best at Haw this year and if upswing continues it could be time for a picture.
9-Pootie Cat (5/2)-Could finally graduate, Oosting needs to work the right trip but has been facing stiffer competition. This will be the 9th race at Haw and has placed once and finished 3rd five times.

Race 11

3-Hello Art (9/2)-Made a trip to the winner's circle on 6/13 at 52-1 and hasn't started since. Offers some value at the ML odds if ready to roll. Has hit the board in 5 of 7 starts in Stickney.
5-Crookshanks (15-1)-Looking for a price. From this post Wilfong can hang around and look to use one move down the lane to surprise.
6-Dirt E Rock (3-1)-Program favorite has won 4 of 6 starts all at Haw. Has been facing better, Warren may look to get on the engine and not look back.
7-Bright Boy (7-1)-Only 1-16 lifetime but is another who can be forwardly placed and take advantage of a ground saving trip. Has been closing well and if Smolin can provide a smooth journey, there is a chance to beat this field.

Race 12

5-Fancy Creek Jolene (5-1)-Only 1-32 but now drops a couple of levels. Barn is still cold, but this mare has won 8 of 45 starts at Haw. This is not a deep group and it could be the spot to capture a long overdue win.
7-Queens And Tens (4-1)-Makes 3rd start off the bench and faced better here and at HoP on 6/18. Makes 3rd start since the break and will use instead of the ML chalk #1, who is 0-6 at Haw.

Race 13

3-Lilly Von Shtupp (7/2)-Was bet down to 4/5 in last and raced well but not as good the winner who stopped the clock in 152.0. Lilly should get a great trip and might be able to cash the top check tonight.
5-Rollin Coal (5-1)-This 5-year-old has speed but is basically a one-move horse. Gets post relief and from this starting spot Franco should be able to provide a better steer and not empty the tank too soon.
9-Boogie On Down (4-1)-Drops out of Open company and should have her way with this field with a top effort. But there have not been any top efforts since the restart. Wilfong is back and will respect connections.

0.50 Late Pick 4

2,6,9/3,5,6,7/5,7/3,5,9
Total Bet=$36

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Mister Bobby Stalker was running well at the level without winning this winter, comes back in a race loaded with speed, and goes for a Bond barn that usually starts rolling at this time of year; look out.
#7 Coach Villa Pace presser drew well for his style and will get first run on the pick too, and that N3L win last time was sharp, though where it came from is another question altogether; second-best.
#2 Frevola Brown speedster laughed at a 50k MCL field last time but now steps way up, catches a group that will nag him the entire way, and will be way overbet as well; making him prove it on top.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that will really aid the chances of the 1, so play him to win and place, and to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since he's getting all the best of it here, and yet could be the third-choice in the betting.

Belmont Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Big Thicket Class riser aired off the Rodriguez claim last time and meets a modest field on the rise, and if he runs back to that last, he's going to bury this meek group; love his chances here.
#1 Giant Shoes Price player has only run once on a fast track and it was a solid 3rd, goes turf-to-dirt and second-off the break, and will be a very square number as well; thinking he fires a biggies.
#7 Quickflash Logical contender caught slop last time and was a clear 2nd to a runaway winner, now adds blinkers for a bit more focus, but will probably be a bit overbet as well; underneath only.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 2 but if he runs back to his win off the claim last time he's beating this group, and that makes $7 in the win end not too bad at all, so play him aggressively to win and place, and get some added value by keying him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since this is the perfect type of field to face on the rise.

Belmont Park - Race #10
Picks Notes
#8 Striking Causeway Pace presser drew perfectly to be outside, really woke up on turf the last time, should only improve off that tightener, and doesn't meet much; look out.
#5 Spiritual King Speedster now faces NYB's for Sacco off a pair of GP turf routes for Pletcher, no runs as a first-time gelding too, and might need to be caught; big chance.
#6 More Like It Logical sort was a close 6th on the turf last time off the break, and is another who should improve, though he'll have to to get there first; exotics appeal.
Race Summary Taking $9 on the pick would seem mighty fair off his last, and with his upside as well, so make an aggressive win and place bet, while getting value by keying him to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he looks poised to build off that run, which means he'd be throwing down a race the rest of these simply won't be able to handle.

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Petrov Worth a little look with these from the inside as he's quick enough to get in the mix from the fence in the early going. His form is spotty, but his best stuff fits here.
#3 Horse Doctor No knocks on the recent form, and it was good to see that he backed up the Oaklawn upset with another good run last time out. He should be able to get another good go of things from close range.
#4 Hard Belle Has some forward ability in a race without a ton of serious early burn, and but he'll need to hold his form off the claim. Figure he tires late and lands underneath.
Race Summary Petrov has a little bit of early speed at times, and using that would serve him well in this spot while breaking from the inside. His best races would be good enough to win this at a square price.

Ellis Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#2 Cuzzywuzzy Eddie Kenneally's barn has done really good work with two-turn turf maidens here over the last few years, and this filly brings what appears to be a pretty forward worktab with her to this debut run.
#6 Beautiful Star Impossible to count this one out as she'll debut out of the Brad Cox barn, and they have also been a dominant force in races like this over the last several years.
#3 Couger Has an experience edge on most of these and has a pedigree that suggests she might appreciate the move around two turns for this second trip to post.
Race Summary Cuzzywuzzy debuts for a team that has done really good work with maidens like this over the years, and the hope is that Beautiful Star takes more cash than she deserves to based on the Cox/Geroux connections.

Ellis Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#10 Complicit Woke up last out when getting back to the grass, and something like that effort might be enough to keep her in the picture here at another big price.
#9 Mitchell Road Should be able to handle this kind of company, but she might not be quite as good as she was at times last year. The clear one to beat with another good trip looming near the top.
#5 Our Bay B Ruth Reliable finisher looks logical here having won four of the last five, and she is just quick enough to find the right spot behind the pace today.
Race Summary Complicit needs every bit of a repeat of that last one, and maybe then some, but she'll be the right kind of price to take a swing against this group.

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 Frenchmen Street Showed signs of finishing last out and stretches out to 7.5 furlongs; won three in a row not long ago and is rounding back into form.
#3 Harbour Master Rallied off a slow pace last time and should get more help from pacesetters this time; late threat.
#4 Lahinch Regained good form last time as he won off the pace going 5 furlongs; likely to be on or near the front end and can be a player all the way.
Race Summary Frenchmen Street got a wake-up call last time, improved, and now gets more distance; looking at a top effort here.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#7 Glory Roll Has good speed and can clear from the outside; has been in good races and can dig in with these.
#1 Fiber Optic Has won three of her last four, has been claiming in his last three and runs for the Sancal stable; close from the start.
#4 Solarte Tired last time but has been in the mix in all of his races; can hang on for a piece of it.
Race Summary Glory Roll does well when she gets the lead and has good chance of it here; was caught right at the wire and can stay this time.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 Isla Road Lost a three-horse photo on turf last time and wins if she improves slightly off that one; has been competitive in stakes at GP.
#8 Crown and Sugar Set the pace and was caught late in a stakes race last time; takes on open company and can be a player all the way there.
#2 Midnight Soiree Ran evenly behind slow fractions last out and likely will get a better trip in this one; can make a late run.
Race Summary Isla Road just missed in his 1st in three months and is perfectly placed; can get the stakes victory this time around.

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $9195 Class Rating: 81

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 JSGSTROKERSLITTLESIS 5/2

# 2 OLIVERSSWEETPRINCESS 5/2

# 5 FIRES AWAY 9/2

JSGSTROKERSLITTLESIS figures to be the wager in here. With one of the most respectable jocks in terms of profits at the window, don't count this filly out. Has to be given consideration here if only for the very good speed figure put up in the last outing. She has been running well recently while recording sharp Equibase Speed Figures. OLIVERSSWEETPRINCESS - She ought to be carefully examined given the competitive speed numbers. She has a good opportunity here as conditioner, Fales, has strong win clip with horses going this distance. FIRES AWAY - She has a very good distance/surface win record - 2 - 12.

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Bar

Lone Star Park - Race #4 - Post: 4:35pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 62

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#8 SWEET LINDA (ML=2/1)


SWEET LINDA - This speed freak is running a shorter distance today. Should help her chances to win. Trainer Willis moves this horse down in class to face a lower level today. Look for a good race in this race. The latest speed fig of 59 is the best last race speed fig in the group. This filly should be in top form, this far into her form cycle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 GIDGET (ML=3/1), #3 TAKE CHARGE WOMAN (ML=7/2), #7 CATCH THE DEVIL (ML=9/2),

GIDGET - In all probability won't make much of an impression this time. TAKE CHARGE WOMAN - Will be tough for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed rating. Not likely to improve enough to run a figure close enough to today's class rating, so put her on the questionable contenders list. CATCH THE DEVIL - Recorded a quite unimpressive speed figure in the last race in a Maiden Special race on June 15th. Not probable to see an improved performance off of that fig.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - SWEET LINDA - This horse's pace figures lead me to believe that she will use her energy to take this event from start to finish.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #8 SWEET LINDA on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
8 with 4

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Bar

Mountaineer Park - Race #9 - Post: 9:56pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,300 Class Rating: 70

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#9 KING'S RECKONING (ML=6/1)
#7 SHACKLESON (ML=9/5)
#4 FIRST TALENT (ML=5/2)


KING'S RECKONING - The 88 most recent race speed figure looks sound in the TrackMaster PPs. SHACKLESON - Last time he ran at this trip he registered a speed figure good enough to win today's affair. Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last work was second fastest of the day for the distance. FIRST TALENT - He must like the track here. He just won over the track after shipping in. This gelding should be at the peak of fitness, this far into his form cycle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SPOTTY ZEALOUS (ML=6/1), #8 PERPETRATOR (ML=8/1), #2 TWINSANITY (ML=8/1),

SPOTTY ZEALOUS - I cannot play this confirmed non-winner. Gets the assignment completed from time to time. PERPETRATOR - Severe stretch drive on Jun 8th and last time out. Probably won't have anything to give down the stretch this time around. Going to have a difficult go of it with all the early speed in this affair. TWINSANITY - Tough to keep stabbing at this sort of 'bridesmaid' horse. Hard to put your dough on this early speedster. Too much speed in the event.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - KING'S RECKONING - Taking a very big class rating tumble today. Let's cash in on the drastic descent.





STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #9 KING'S RECKONING to win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
9 with [4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [4,7,9] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
[4,7,9] with [4,7,9] with [1,4,7,8,9] with [1,4,7,8,9] Total Cost: $36

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $37000 Class Rating: 72

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. HOURS PRIOR TO POST TIME FOR THE RACE.). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 3 COUGER 12/1

# 7 I'LL MAKE IT COACH 10/1

# 6 BEAUTIFUL STAR 2/1

COUGER looks like the bet in here and could score at a price in here. Her 60 average has this filly with among the most favorable Equibase Speed Figures in this contest. Should be given a chance here if only for the strong Equibase speed fig garnered in the last race. Is difficult not to look at given the company run in recently. I'LL MAKE IT COACH - Will most likely be one of the leaders of the group going into the midpoint of the competition. Could provide positive gains based on very good recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 62. BEAUTIFUL STAR - I can't pass on this filly given one of the strongest jock and handler combos on the grounds.