Tuesday Service Play Thread 07/07/2020

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Let's go Brandon!
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Peter Kahn

BOXING

Jose Zepeda (32-2, 25 KOs) is facing late replacement Kendo Castaneda (17-1, 8 KOs) in a 10 round super lightweight bout. Boxing fans were originally slated for a treat with Zepeda and former IBF world champion Ivan Baranchyk set to fight, but Baranchyk pulled out one week ago with a rib injury. Instead of postponing the bout, Top Rank was able to get Castaneda to step in on short notice.

The oddsmakers have Zepeda, the former world title challenger, a -400 favorite to defeat the +300 underdog Castaneda. My personal belief is that this line is too low for Zepeda. I feel he should easily be a -1000 favorite in this particular fight.

Zepeda's two losses can be somewhat misleading. Both came in world title fights. His first loss to former world champion Terry Flannigan in 2015 was due to a dislocated shoulder in the second round. His second loss in 2019 was a close majority decision loss to Jose Ramirez, arguably the best super lightweight in the world. Zepeda had a unanimous decision win over former two-division world champion Jose Pedraza in 2019.

Castaneda has a two-inch height and reach advantage on Zepeda, and Castaneda's only loss came to a Top-50 rated super lightweight. Overall, though, he compiled his record against subpar opposition compared to the level of fighter he'll face Tuesday night. Castaneda is coming off his first career loss in February against Yomar Alamo. Coming back against Zepeda is a tall order. Zepeda is looking to establish himself as a world title challenger again and Castaneda won't stand in his way. Zepeda's southpaw stance, pressure, and experience are going to be the difference as he outclasses Castaneda en route to a victory.

Go with Zepeda, who could get a late TKO.
 

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Canterbury Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 Jess One Lane ML favorite really improved when beating a few of these in his local debut and second start, looks like the speed here, and still has plenty of upside; love his chances right back.
#1 Corona White Socks Price player was 3rd to the pick last time and is another who really woke up in his second start, so if he takes another forward leap, he's in with a serious chance; major player.
#6 Relentless Seis Logical sort split the top-2 when 2nd last time, so clearly he figures, though he's the one who is going to have to chase 'Jess early, which won't help him late; might come unglued.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 2 but that 5-2 ML would be a big overlay, so play him aggressively to win and place at 8-5 or better, though you'll get some real value by singling him in the 10% takeout Pk5, and the late Pk4 as well, as that will allow for some added coverage in the surrounding legs, as he looks like he's got this group over a barrel.

Canterbury Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Divas First Moon Intriguing sort was a one-paced 3rd to a few of these last time in the mud, but that came off an October break, while they had the recency edge on her, which is not the case today, as she figures to improve in a big way off that tightener; upset special.
#9 Tipsy Girl B The chalk was all-out to hold on last time over several here in a very game effort, and she had 3/4 of a length on the pick, but there's other speed here, and you're also allowed to wonder if she regresses off a very grueling effort; plenty scary, but no lock.
#1 Zoomn On Bye Major player was just a neck short of the chalk last time, so you know she's going to be in the mix here, though the rail s no bargain, and she's another who could come up a bit short off that huge run, especially on a fast track as well; using underneath only.
Race Summary The price will be right on the 5, and she has every right to move forward off that comeback, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially the 10% takeout Pk5, and the late Pk4 as well, since she could fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would go a long way in adding plenty of value to both sequences.

Canterbury Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#1 Pyc Jess Bite Mydust Stretch runner ran out of room going 300 last time, so the added ground should be to his liking, and the price will be square too; call to post the mild surprise.
#9 Danjer The chalk has some gaudy figures and will get first run on the pick, but note he's won just once in his last seven starts, and he'll be overbet; trying to beat on top.
#10 Heza Blues Man Veteran rarely wins but he usually comes with his run and gets a piece, and he's another who fits nicely on paper, and could be a price too; should be rallying late.
Race Summary That 8-1 ML seems fair on the pick, as he no doubt has to improve, but the added distance will be key, so give him a look in all the slots, and in the 10% takeout Pk5, and the late Pk4 as well, since a win would add plenty of value to both sequences, and he might get the right kind of setup to pull it off.
 

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 Mrs. Chapman Has shown better pace in recent races than she did in that only turf try in the career debut, so she's worth another look on the grass at a square price as she joins the local company for the first time.
#3 Mama Dune Really sharp score against a soft group in the debut, and though she's stepping up in price and condition here, she is bred to handle the turf and is definitely not exposed after just the one start.
#5 Hell's a Poppin Speed has never tried the turf but has handled synthetic footing just fine, and she proved a good fit with this level last out.
Race Summary Mrs. Chapman is worth a look as she faces the local company for the first time, and I'm not totally sold on the 2/1 ML chalk #2 Matzo Bella who was summarily tossed out of the Servis barn and now the Maker barn has had enough, too.

Mountaineer - Race #2
Picks Notes
#3 Mutasabeh Potential chalk to be tough in this spot with a good effort under his belt last time out. He was taken down from that win, but he has the speed to find another good spot in here.
#5 Soul Beam Should be right there in what looks like a very top heavy race -- these two and then a big gap in talent back to the rest. Still, he's 1-for-24 and I'm not jumping in at something like the 7/5 ML price.
#1 Frost Proof Looks fast enough to make an early impact from the inside, and he has a couple of back turf races that might be good enough to land an underneath piece.
Race Summary Probably the right race to decide which you like better between Mutasabeh and Soul Beam and let multi-race tickets ride on that decision. Unless you've got a big price somewhere else in the sequence that you like, don't double the price of the ticket to use both. Mutasabeh seems more likely to fire with fewer questions to answer.

Mountaineer - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 Level Seventeen Has a bit of pace in a spot where the splits may not be too hot, and perhaps he can stick around better with that last one under his belt.
#7 Honey Saver Looks like one of the ones to beat off the run last out when DQ'ed from the Belterra win, and something like that run keeps him in the mix as he steps up.
#3 Perfect Seeker Tough call between this gut and #2 Kings Highway for this third spot, but 'Seeker has been in with much better groups than this for almost all of his career.
Race Summary Level Seventeen should be a fair price here, and though she tends to give away ground late, she should get a pretty advantageous run of things near the top here, giving her a chance to hang around late.
 

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 CONCERTINA’S IMAGE Couldn’t sustain first-over bid, better set-up and price today.
#6 ALWAYS A Z TAM Responded to front-end tactics, beat several of same rivals.
#8 WILD NITE TINA Inched closer in outer flow on final turn, gets Palone off the claim.
Race Summary Concertina’s Image was flushed out of third midway on the backstretch, challenged pace-setting winner Always A Z Tam on the turn and was wrapped up while tiring in the stretch. She should get more pace to run at and could upset if she picks up cover this time.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 DOC’S HARMONY Held off the faves in second-out victory from the rail, taken to repeat.
#4 WIGGLE DELIGHT No threat against better in 1:51, gets second-time Lasix.
#2 MIA CULPA Snapped bout with seconditis with pair of recent victories over track.
Race Summary Doc’s Harmony showed promise with a late rush for second in her debut, then led throughout in her second start, holding off the 9-to-5 co-favorites through a :27.3 final quarter. Play 1-2 and 1-4 exactas in hopes that she continues to improve.

Pocono Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#8 SMOKEE MIRRORS Lacked running room, needs fast pace, use in gimmick wagers at a price.
#7 AXIOS Won before the break, won after the break, seeks 30th win overall.
#5 ONE DIRECTION Finished a distant third behind 1-to-5 repeat winner, draws better post.
Race Summary Taking a longshot stab on Smokee Mirrors, who was trapped in mid-pack and showed mild late interest last week. He switches pilots for high-percentage barn. Play a 5-7-8 exacta box.
 

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 Sentimentaljourney Was claimed by Amoss stable two back and post a win last out; very capable Indiana-bred and can be very tough stretching out to two turns here.
#4 Drinkatthecreek Held on to 2nd last time in her best performance since last August; she was in strong allowance company at Oaklawn and was 4th in a claiming race two back at Churchill Downs.
#6 Sister Gema Won and was claimed two back at Gulfstream Park and is now in the West stable; jockey Parker hitting at 20 percent and this gal should be tough with Indiana-breds.
Race Summary Sentimentaljourney beat Indiana-breds in a 5-furlong race, which is not her cup of tea; she was 3rd in a stakes race last year and looks like an improved filly this season.

Indiana Grand - Race #3
Picks Notes
#6 Mad Grace The only time she wasn't on the board in her last eight races came four back, when she reared and lost her rider; she can be on the front end or come from just off of it and has become a very competitive mare.
#7 Seeds of Time Was claimed off a win last time and joined the Bernard Flint barn; has won three of her last five and is a good finisher.
#4 Centerfold Angel Comes off a sharp score at Belterra Park and also won races at Turfway and Churchill; tough on or near the front end.
Race Summary Mad Grace has been a model of consistency and can adjust to any pace; likely to get a good trip, whether she's on the front end or just off the leaders.

Indiana Grand - Race #7
Picks Notes
#5 Quiet Company Was up in time for a maiden-claiming score at Churchill and takes a step up in class; has trained well since her latest and Geroux makes the trip or the ride.
#7 Trivial Scored in her last one at Fair Grounds in February and has taken on some tough allowance and upper claiming sorts.
#1 Ginseng Lost a photo and was claimed at Churchill last out and makes her 1st for Lovell; solid player throughout.
Race Summary Quiet Company goes for her 2nd straight after going winless in her 1st eight; capable of being in the mix throughout and it looks like she's developing into a turf router.
 

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