Thursday Service Play Thread 07/09/2020

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Let's go Brandon!
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Mike McClure - Golf

Outright Bets:

Collin Morikawa +3300
Patrick Reed +3300
Sungjae Im +4000
Matthew Fitzpatrick +6000

Top 5 bets:

Marc Leishman +750
Sungjae Im +800
Matthew Fitzpatrick +1000

Top 20 bets:

Matthew Fitzpatrick +250
Kevin Streelman +300
Corey Conners +333
Joel Dahmen +350
Cameron Tringale +650

H2H Matchups

Sungjae Im -110 vs. Matt Kuchar
Patrick Cantlay -110 vs. Brooks Koepka

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Justin Thomas (11-1)
2. Jon Rahm (14-1)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (16-1)
4. Patrick Cantlay (14-1)
5. Xander Schauffele (18-1)
6. Collin Morikawa (33-1)
7. Patrick Reed (33-1)
8. Sungjae Im (40-1)
9. Justin Rose (25-1)
10. Viktor Hovland (22-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Brooks Koepka
12 Gary Woodland
13 Marc Leishman
14 Joel Dahmen
15 Matthew Fitzpatrick
16 Corey Conners
17 Matt Kuchar
18 Harold Varner III
19 Joaquin Niemann
20 Byeong Hun An
21 Rickie Fowler
22 Scottie Scheffler
23 Kevin Streelman
24 Adam Hadwin
25 Emiliano Grillo
26 Cameron Tringale
27 Jim Furyk
28 Jason Day
29 Jason Kokrak
30 Louis Oosthuizen
31 Shane Lowry
32 Carlos Ortiz
33 Rory Sabbatini
34 Bud Cauley
35 Billy Horschel
36 Brendan Steele
37 Vaughn Taylor
38 Max Homa
39 Russell Henley
40 Bubba Watson
41 Jordan Spieth
42 Ian Poulter
43 Sebastian Munoz
44 Matthew NeSmith
45 Cameron Champ
46 Nick Taylor
47 Keegan Bradley
48 Brandt Snedeker
49 Ryan Palmer
50 Mark Hubbard
51 Aaron Wise
52 Matthew Wolff
53 Chez Reavie
54 Maverick McNealy
55 Charles Howell III
56 Andrew Landry
57 Tom Hoge
58 Russell Knox
59 Patrick Rodgers
60 Scott Stallings
61 Brice Garnett
62 Denny McCarthy
63 Zach Johnson
64 Talor Gooch
65 Cameron Percy
66 Adam Long
67 Richy Werenski
68 Danny Lee
69 Harry Higgs
70 Bronson Burgoon
71 Brandon Wu
72 Chesson Hadley
73 Sung Kang
74 Hudson Swafford
75 Jhonattan Vegas
76 Fabian Gomez
77 Brian Stuard
78 Cameron Davis
79 Aaron Baddeley
80 Adam Schenk
81 Pat Perez
82 Henrik Norlander
83 Lanto Griffin
84 Phil Mickelson
85 Sam Burns
86 Nate Lashley
87 Graeme McDowell
88 Branden Grace
89 Charley Hoffman
90 Jason Dufner
91 Matt Wallace
92 Nick Watney
93 Seung-yul Noh
94 Matt Jones
95 Luke List
96 Dylan Frittelli
97 Zac Blair
98 Tim Wilkinson
99 Kyle Stanley
100 Ryan Armour
101 James Hahn
102 Stewart Cink
103 Troy Merritt
104 Brian Gay
105 Sepp Straka
106 Xinjun ZHANG
107 Andrew Putnam
108 Kyoung-Hoon Lee
109 D.J. Trahan
110 Charl Schwartzel
111 J.B. Holmes
112 Michael Thompson
113 Beau Hossler
114 Mackenzie Hughes
115 David Hearn
116 Sam Ryder
117 Keith Mitchell
118 Chris Stroud
119 Rob Oppenheim
120 Grayson Murray
121 Joseph Bramlett
122 Steve Stricker
123 Jerry Kelly
124 Kevin Tway
125 Chris Kirk
126 Bo Hoag
127 Scott Harrington
128 Robert Streb
129 Roger Sloan
130 Jimmy Walker
131 Robby Shelton
132 Si Woo Kim
133 Jonathan Byrd
134 Sebastian Cappelen
135 Jamie Lovemark
136 Lucas Bjerregaard
137 Chase Koepka
138 Cheng Tsung Pan
139 Luke Donald
140 Austin Cook
141 Hank Lebioda
142 Patton Kizzire
143 K.J. Choi
144 Ted Potter Jr.
145 Matt Every
146 Peter Malnati
147 Davis Love III
148 J.J. Spaun
149 Jim Herman
150 Vijay Singh
151 Kevin Stadler
152 Michael Kim
153 Bo Van Pelt
154 Martin Trainer
 

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #1 - Post: 12:50pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,500 Class Rating: 50

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#4 JUDY'S PRIDE (ML=9/2)

JUDY'S PRIDE - This filly's last speed figure registered on February 26th is at the top in last race speed figures. Getting a break of 9 lbs from last race at Mahoning Valley Race Cour. She should make the most of this advantage. Look at this pattern of improvement. 34/46/50 are the last 3 Equibase speed figs.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 NUNS ISLAND (ML=3/1), #2 GRAZIA WHO (ML=4/1), #5 MISS KETTLE ZIP (ML=6/1),

NUNS ISLAND - Unlikely for this participant to make a winning move with no recent good showings in a short distance event. GRAZIA WHO - Not probable for this participant to make a winning move with no recent good showings in a sprint event. This runner showed little last time out of the box finishing sixth. Don't expect any improvement today. Tough to bet on any animal like this that didn't hit the board after the extended layoff and comes right back. MISS KETTLE ZIP - Hard to play a pony that lays up for a long time then doesn't finish in the money off the extended vacation.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #4 JUDY'S PRIDE on top if we're getting at least 1/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Skip
 

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts


Emerald Downs - Race #6 - Post: 7:37pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,400 Class Rating: 48

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 VIA ALPINA (ML=4/1)
#8 STAR FUSION (ML=6/1)


VIA ALPINA - A repeat of that last performance on June 14th where she earned a speed figure of 51 looks lofty enough to prove victorious in this race. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is up against an easier field than in the last race at Golden Gate Fields. Three consecutive improved speed figs (40-44-51) make this one a solid contender. This equine is in the top spot in earnings per start. She looks strong in today's race. STAR FUSION - Cryderman drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more information to think this one has a good chance at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LIVING LEGEND (ML=9/5), #4 DRAGON LADY (ML=7/2), #2 DATCAT (ML=8/1),

LIVING LEGEND - If this race shapes up right, all the speed horses will force a ferocious pace duel early. Too bad this horse is one of those front runners. DRAGON LADY - Never really did much at all last out on Jun 24th. Hard to bet on today. No good fortune for this horse in a short distance race over the last couple months tells me that this mare is in a thorny situation The fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued contestant. DATCAT - Hard to bet on a runner that lays up for a long time then doesn't end up on the board off the extended vacation. Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some success lately in short distance affairs in order to support her. Registered a mediocre speed figure last race out in an $8,000 Maiden Claiming race on July 1st. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #1 VIA ALPINA on the win end if we get at least 9/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
 

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 61

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 SWEET MEDICINE 9/5

# 2 DINNER AT CRUMPIES 6/1

# 4 TWIRLINCOTTONCANDY 3/1

SWEET MEDICINE has a very good shot to take this race. Is hard not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been very strong - 52 avg - of late. Will probably come out solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the front end recently. Is a contender - given the 52 speed figure from his most recent race. DINNER AT CRUMPIES - Likely to see this horse to be close at the finish line versus these ponies. TWIRLINCOTTONCANDY - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group of animals as of late. Looks decent against this group and should be one of the front-runners.
 

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Emerald Downs - Race #6 - Post: 7:37pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,400 Class Rating: 48

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 VIA ALPINA (ML=4/1)
#8 STAR FUSION (ML=6/1)


VIA ALPINA - A repeat of that last performance on June 14th where she earned a speed figure of 51 looks lofty enough to prove victorious in this race. Looking at today's Equibase class figure, this horse is up against an easier field than in the last race at Golden Gate Fields. Three consecutive improved speed figs (40-44-51) make this one a solid contender. This equine is in the top spot in earnings per start. She looks strong in today's race. STAR FUSION - Cryderman drops her down to this level. You don't need too much more information to think this one has a good chance at this level.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 LIVING LEGEND (ML=9/5), #4 DRAGON LADY (ML=7/2), #2 DATCAT (ML=8/1),

LIVING LEGEND - If this race shapes up right, all the speed horses will force a ferocious pace duel early. Too bad this horse is one of those front runners. DRAGON LADY - Never really did much at all last out on Jun 24th. Hard to bet on today. No good fortune for this horse in a short distance race over the last couple months tells me that this mare is in a thorny situation The fig in the last race doesn't fit very well in this affair when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued contestant. DATCAT - Hard to bet on a runner that lays up for a long time then doesn't end up on the board off the extended vacation. Most of the time I need a sprinter to have some success lately in short distance affairs in order to support her. Registered a mediocre speed figure last race out in an $8,000 Maiden Claiming race on July 1st. Improbable to see an improved performance off of that figure.



STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Have to go with #1 VIA ALPINA on the win end if we get at least 9/5 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,8]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None
 

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $24000 Class Rating: 61

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 SWEET MEDICINE 9/5

# 2 DINNER AT CRUMPIES 6/1

# 4 TWIRLINCOTTONCANDY 3/1

SWEET MEDICINE has a very good shot to take this race. Is hard not to examine based on Equibase Speed Figures which have been very strong - 52 avg - of late. Will probably come out solid - I have liked the way this gelding has moved sharply to the front end recently. Is a contender - given the 52 speed figure from his most recent race. DINNER AT CRUMPIES - Likely to see this horse to be close at the finish line versus these ponies. TWIRLINCOTTONCANDY - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group of animals as of late. Looks decent against this group and should be one of the front-runners.
 

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Jeff Siegel's Day Makers - 7/09/20

July 9, 2020

* JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL DAY MAKERS FOR THURSDAY, JULY 9, 2020

* Jeff Siegel’s prime plays from around the country are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. Always the day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value and each selection should be given strong consideration both as a straight wager and as a key in vertical and horizontal exotics.



BELMONT PARK – 7th RACE. POST TIME: 4:32 ET
3 – On Base (5-1)

Was entered and scratched out of last week’s Kent Stakes at Delaware Park and instead surfaces in this more realistic first-level allowance race in his first outing in more than four months following an impressive Tampa Bay Downs maiden win at this nine furlong trip. The 3-year-old son of Empire Maker didn’t show much in his debut but left that form far behind when adding blinkers, display good tactical speed, and then pulverizing his foes in the final furlong despite racing a bit green and erratic. There’s no doubt that the natural talent is there, and as he gains experience this J. Thomas-trained colt could be more than just okay. At 5-1 on the morning line we’ll gamble that he’s progressed sufficiently to handle this more difficult assignment.

* KEENELAND – 8th RACE. POST TIME: 4:57 ET
4 – Mom’s Red Lipstick (15-1)

Tackles older rivals in her 3-year-old debut in a difficult and contentious second-level allowance sprint but has a touch of real quality and probably is better than her morning line of 15-1 gives her credit for. The daughter of Race Day was miles the best in her debut win last summer at Arlington Park and then captured the Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes impressively before concluding her juvenile campaign with good runner-up effort in the Glorious Song Stakes despite a less-than-ideal trip. She makes her first start over conventional dirt after a recent bullet drill at Churchill Downs :)46 1/5 fastest of 97), so we’ll assume she’ll handle the main track just fine. We know she can fire fresh and the gamble is that she’s grown up and matured in her first outing in eight months. We’ll take a shot.
 

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#6 Madam Deputy Cox firster (15%) lures Castellano and is by hot young sire Constitution, has a slew of works showing for this, and meets two sketchy MSW dropping favorites; call to come out running.
#7 Belleza MSW miss hasn't been out since a distant 2nd to a repeat winner in Nov., so the layoff and the fact she's in for a tag off of it isn't a great sign, plus she'll be overbet; underlaid contender.
#5 Allure Fortune The other MSW dropper was a decent 3rd on debut in Sept. then returned last month and was awful, so sure, the drop works, but yikes, she didn't do any running off the break; no thanks.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 6, as you want to see her live and taking money, and if that's the case it's a great sign, since the two favorites don't inspire and have some serious knocks, and so you can play the pick in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.

Belmont Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#6 Simply Sweet Mott firster (10%) is out of BC Juvenile Fillies winner Sweet Catomine, so there's a serious pedigree here, and that 6/29 bullet work sure says she can run, which is something the proven gals haven't really shown in spaced; look out.
#6 Back Channel ML favorite was a distant 2nd on debut for Rice, who never cranks them and is 26% with second-out maidens, so you know she's firing today, but it's not like the debut was any great shakes, plus she'll be overbet too; second-best.
#10 Harlem Heights Phipps homebred has a big pedigree herself and showed a bit of talent in a pair of 2yo starts, but that Oct. layoff is a worry, especially since you can surmise has a bullet circled on Saratoga for the serious run; tabbing for next time.
Race Summary We've got another tote tab here, as the 6 is supposed to be at or even below this 6-1 ML, and if that's the case play her in all the slots, and especially to in the early Pk5 (tab the DD from R5 into this one), and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, as she could fall through the wagering cracks a bit, which means a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.

Belmont Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#3 On Base Rousing MSW winner added blinkers and that sure did the trick in his second start at Tampa, and while these are the big boys here, he fits on paper, has a world of upside, and will be a square price too; upset special.
#5 No Word The chalk for Pletcher was a good 3rd to a potential Brown star last time, and a repeat wins this, but the cutback could hinder his chances, as his shorter runs weren't as solid as that 1 1/4-mile effort last time; still, plenty scary.
#1 Sharocket Local MSW winner finally got over the hump last time, and while taking on winners is never easy, he has some confidence now after so many nibbles, and that can often be a springboard to another big run; looms in the mix.
Race Summary You should get fair value on the 3, and you need it too, as this is a significant rise in class, but he tipped his hand last time and should be able to build on that sterling run, so play him in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win in this deep field would add plenty of value to both sequences.
 

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Emerald Downs - Race #3
Picks Notes
#4 Bearcreek Mountain Finished with some energy in the comeback run, and if he's able to move forward off that one, he's right there tonight.
#3 Balius Ran okay locally in the debut and then held his own against some better groups at Golden Gate. Looks like the one to beat, but not sure he has to win this.
#7 Hard to Deny Blinkers go on for this one after a couple of really even kinds of runs. The addition of the blinkers might be enough to get him in the mix a bit earlier.
Race Summary Bearcreek Mountain rallied nicely in that comeback run, and he has a bit of upside with that recent start under his belt in a spot where his main competition will be running off the bench.

Emerald Downs - Race #5
Picks Notes
#6 Code Charlie Draws better than his main pace rival, and he should be breathing down that guy's neck from the start. Maiden win here was solid, and he was in too deep last time out.
#4 Tiz Manny Finisher owns solid local performances from last year, and the hope here is that he'll get a decent pace from the two forward players in this easier spot.
#2 Violent Behavior Reliable type usually shows up, but he's still 1-for-17 and hasn't been a serious win threat late in his last few races. Beat him to cash, but he'll get bet.
Race Summary Code Charlie might get a little overlooked with the other two listed here likely to take their share of cash, and the hops it that he'll put away the other pace early on and find something left to hold off the Golden Gate shippers.

Emerald Downs - Race #9
Picks Notes
#3 Sunshine Emily Must overcome the layoff here, but she has been a huge handful when facing claiming company in her career, and the overall form is better than it looks with a trio of tries with better clouding the form.
#2 Fortune's Freude Form can be hit or miss, and though she has done most of her good work going long, she owns some decent sprint races would make her competitive here.
#7 Guardian One Has been in with much better than this for quite some time, so she's a player on the drop with some solid back sprint races to her credit.
Race Summary Tough race. Sunshine Emily has speed off the bench, and the hope is that she'll run them off their feet. She has been very tough at this kind of level in the past and goes for a barn off to a hot start.
 

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 WISENHEIMER Chased odds-on, co-favorites at notch above, one to beat.
#6 IZOH Sustained first-over rally to beat lesser after six months away.
#3 APLOMB HANOVER Drops, starts from better spot in third start of cycle.
Race Summary Wisenheimer followed a pair of 4-to-5 shots around the track while saving ground and got caught late for third. He gets class relief, draws the rail and seeks his 35th victory. Play 1-3 and 1-6 exactas.

Yonkers - Race #1
Picks Notes
#1 AMATEUR HOUR Benefits from return, draws rail in weak field, no excuses today.
#7 ROCK N ROLL ROSIE Invader starts fresh, trying to recapture 2019 form (41/7-9-5).
#5 LINE DANCER Led clear, held second at this level early in the year at Yonkers.
Race Summary Amateur Hour is 2-51 the last two years, but she has a recent race over the strip, takes a class drop and should be forwardly placed from the rail in a field that is a combined 4-66 this year. Play 1-5 and 1-7 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #3
Picks Notes
#10 SABINE PASS Can upset if he minds his manners, poor post offset by inflated price.
#8 THE REV Lost contact with 2-1 winner through :27 final quarter as the favorite.
#1 MARTY MONKHOUSER Led until late at half-mile track, will be underlay.
Race Summary Probably a week early on Sabine Pass with post 10 starting spot; however, his price will be good and he finished a willing third last week despite racing a bit erratically early and being parked by the favorite. Play a 1-8-10 exacta box
 

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