Sunday Service Play Thread 07/12/2020

BuzzKill · Jul 5, 2020

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bmd1803 · Jul 12, 2020

My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Keeneland

July 11, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

Two of the greatest recent of examples of retaining form are on display in half of the races in the Sunday Late Pick 4 at Keeneland.
Hard to beat the form sustainability of Whitmore and Zulu Alpha, a pair of 7-year-olds.
Whitmore is a closing pure sprinter with whom we are all familiar. Through his 14 wins in 34 starts and $3.1 million in earnings, we’ve seen him uncork his late run and has done most of his damage at Oaklawn. He’s raced just three times at Keeneland and has a win and two seconds. His latest Keeneland appearance was in the G2 Phoenix last year, when he was 7th in mid-stretch, made his usual late run and just missed, finishing second to Engage.
Whitmore is by far the most accomplished in the eighth race, which an optional claiming race. Not to worry, Whitmore’s folks are taking the “no’’ option on claim possibilities, but some in there are eligible to be claimed for $150,000. However, his running style makes him a difficult single. For that reason, he’s not alone in Race 8 (third in the sequence). Nitrous has taken on graded sprinters and has a chance to show up prominently in the stretch.
Zulu Alpha is the biggest of the big in the ninth as he’ll go postward as the favorite in the G2 Elkhorn Stakes at 1.5 miles on grass. His form is impeccable, especially in his last three. He’s never been better. He climbed to the head of the class with wins in the G1 PWC Turf Invite and the G2 Mac Diarmida, but just as a reminder that he’s not invincible, he lost by a neck to Bemma’s Boy in the G2 Pan American. He was favored in the 2019 edition of the Elkhorn and finished third as the favorite, beaten by Bigger Picture and Red Knight. He’s 1 of 3 over the Keeneland turf and that gives hope to the connections of others. Certainly a single of Zulu Alpha would not be out of line, but coupled with his Keeneland record and with the capabilities of others, using a couple of price horses with him looks like the thing to do. Nakamura and Oscar Dominguez appear headed in the right direction, and if an upset should occur, it could be with either of those.
The suggested ticket with three runners in the finale totals $45. As an option for those who believe Zulu Alpha is a no-lose proposition, that it takes is down to $15. For the same $45 total, one could go with a $1.50 Pick 4 instead of the customary 50-center. Here’s a look at the Pick 4 races:

Race 6 (3:51 p.m., ET, maidens)
MARKET RUMOR closed well for fourth last time at Churchill Downs, which isn’t always easy to do. He’ll welcome the two turns. Slight improvement makes her a huge player. MY FAVORITE DAY is an Asmussen first-times. Stonestreet put down $700K for the Pioneerof the Nile filly and she lands in a doable spot. HEAVENLY SIS was flying at the end of her last one at Churchill and just missed. Probably gets a more close-up run today.

Race 7 (4:24 p.m., ET, G3 Transylvania Stakes)
This is the spread race in this sequence. FIELD PASS comes in off a gate-to-wire score in the Audubon at CD and earlier took the G3 Jeff Ruby Steaks at Turfway. Other than dirt surfaces, he’s got it covered and fits well. VINTAGE PRINT hasn’t seen this level but has won three straight. IRISH MIAS has been a stakes regular, and rider Velazquez and trainer Motion have been particularly hot lately. FANCY LIQUOR was on the board in all three and always a front-end threat. BAMA BREEZE was second to FIELD PASS and is the best late threat. The pace will probably work in his favor.

Race 8 (4:57 p.m., ET, optional claiming $150,000)
WHITWORE is a standout in the class category and does his best from well back. He has has some starts in which he’s been fairly close to the lead. NITROUS was mid-pack against powerful sprinter Vekoma in the G1 Carter and was a fast-closing fourth behind WHITMORE in the Count Fleet. You don’t know what you’re going to get with NITROUS, but he’s eligible to be a late threat. Each of those will require a fast pace and clean trip.

Race 9 (5:30 p.m., ET, G2 Elkhorn Stakes)
ZULU ALPHA is as good as it gets in the older turf division but he’s 11 of 33 and has a late-running style. He’s clearly the one to beat. NAKAMURA and OSCAR DOMINGUEZ are decent routers that are ready to run against the best. NAKAMURA won three straight and earned his way into higher levels and tends to drop far back. He’ll need some things to work in his favor. OSCAR DOMINGUEZ brings his game from the West Coast and going this distance should be closer to the lead than usual. Like ZULU ALPHA, he’s a 7-year-old and only seems to be getting better as he goes.

Late Pick 4 Sunday at Keeneland:
6) #1 Market Rumor, #3 My Favorite Day, #6 Heavenly Sis.
7) #1 Field Pass, #5 Vintage Print, #6 Irish Mias, #7 Fancy Liquor, #11 Bama Breeze.
8) #9 Nitrous, #11 Whitmore.
9) #2 Nakamura, #5 Zulu Alpha, #9 Oscar Dominguez.
50-cent Late Pick 4 suggested ticket: 1-3-6 with 1-5-6-7-11 with 9-11 with 2-5-9 ($45).

bmd1803 · Jul 12, 2020

TERRY TURRELL LOS ALAMITOS QUARTERS HANDICAP, SUNDAY, JULY 12, 2020
FIRST POST IS 7:10 P.M.

FIRST RACE

#6 TALIA first career start Santa Anita facing high priced maiden claimers, next start over the Golden Gate turf course, now ships to Los Alamitos facing bottom level maiden claimers and racing under the lights for the first time. #3 ELEMENTAL also tumbles in class off disappointing effort facing tougher during the LRC meet making first start for trainer Keith Craigmyle, factor at this level with Vinnie Bednar aboard. #2 DERBY LADY overcame a rough start to be a distant second for trainer Angela Aquino and jockey Christian Aragon. Longshot - #4 MONCHICHI

SECOND RACE

#6 B S CYCLOTRON will appreciate the drop and class and will improve off making first start since September 2019, jockey Ramon Guce aboard for trainer Sergio Morfin. #4 HOSS CARTWRIGHT quick gelding in the Reed Saldana barn fresh off dominating victory beating similar bottom level claimers, winning jockey Eduard Rojas sticks. #2 NOVA #2 NOVA runner up effort in his last start figures to be on or near the lead from flag to wire. Longshot - #3 MELCHIOR

THIRD RACE

#4 SECRET OF WAR broke her maiden with impressive victory making first start for trainer Keith Craigmyle and jockey Vinnie Bednar, spotted at competitive level facing winners for the first time and figures to be value in a wide open heat. #2 GREY TSUNAMI wide trip throughout finishing fourth as the heavy odds on choice, claimed and wheeled back facing similar making first start for trainer Sergio Morfin and jockey Ramon Guce. #1 SHE BE FIRE N ICE pair of runner up efforts after finishing fourth in her previous three starts draws the rail and will be in striking position for the final furlong run. Longshot - #5 INDIAS LUTE

FOURTH RACE

#3 HAPPIER TOGETHER winner of her last two starts at this level is hard to deny top billing for the team of trainer Keith Craigmyle and jockey Vinnie Bednar as she takes aim at the hat trick. #6 BLOOMING HANNAH drops to her lowest claiming level to date making only third start in 2020, draws the outside post in field of six and will appreciate an honest pace to complement her closing kick. #1 NIGHT OF IDIOTS draw line through last facing tougher as she returns to her purchase price and proper level for trainer Brian Cunningham, draws the rail and reunited with jockey Ramon Guce. Longshot - #2 KAJA

FIFTH RACE

#5 TIZ TOFFEE set pace to deep the stretch before tiring making her first start since February of this year during the LRC meet, she should favor this 1000-yard distance for trainer Rosemary Trela and jockey Barrington Harvey. #3 BACK BEAUTY turned in strong effort as the odds on choice winning impressively at this 1000-yard distance for trainer Salvador Naranjo and jockey Edgar Payeras, will keep pressure on the top pick throughout. #6 CIOPPINO PASADINO back to back wins for this mare in the Jesus Uranga barn drawing outside the top pick, she has speed and cannot be ignored. Longshot - #7 TACY

SIXTH RACE

#6 BETTER VERSION pair of rough trips in both his career starts gets chance to make amends tonight drawing the outside post in field of six for trainer Chris O’Dell, jockey Eduardo Nicasio aboard. #1 BIG FABULOSO colt by One Fabulous Eagle from the Matthew Fales barn, who has a winning ROI with runners making first career start, rail draw a concern, jockey Erasmo Gasca aboard. #5 BAIL ME OUT BEBE bumped at the start recovering to be third for trainer Felix Gonzalez draws inside the top pick tonight, jockey Jonathan Roman aboard. Longshot - #4 YES BUT GO

SEVENTH RACE

#2 JUST BE REAL gets top billing in the first of two Governor’s Cup Derby Trials, winner four times from eight career starts was eliminated at the break in his February race, freshened primed for big effort for the high percent team of trainer Scott Willoughby and jockey Vinnie Bednar. #7 FIRE BY NIGHT only one win from fourteen career starts but seldom misses a check and is his own worse enemy at the gate, drawing the outside post in field of seven a plus. #1 UP FOR SPEED the other runner from the Scott Willoughby barn with jockey Jesus Ayala aboard must overcome the rail draw. Longshot - #4 COME FORTH

EIGHTH RACE

#8 RUNFORYOURLIFE hard hitting gelding in the Chris O’Dell barn with $583,753 in career earnings lost momentum in his January start recovering to be third, has a pair of easy maintenance works in June to his credit, jockey Eduardo Nicasio aboard. #7 CATTAIL COVE stumbled at the start losing all chance can make amends tonight in the final Governor’s Cup Derby Trials, trainer Juan Aleman will give a leg up tonight to jockey Oscar Peinado. #4 NOMADIC another entry from the barn of Scott Willoughby with talent and ability to win this heat with a big effort, jockey Vinnie Bednar aboard. Longshot - #5 BONO IS GOOD

Best Chance Bet – SECRET OF WAR (3)

Best Bet – TIZ TOFFEE (5)

BuzzKill · Jul 12, 2020

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Sunday Service Play Thread 07/12/2020

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