New cases, what the numbers mean, and they don't mean a second wave

Willie99 · Jul 8, 2020

There are 3,000,000 known cases in America

The CDC estimates unknown cases to be 10x to 20x greater. That means unknown, almost entirely asymptomatic, cases range between 30,000,000 and 60,000,000 people. That translates to 8% to 16% of Americans have COVID-19 and we don't know about it.

If we test 1,000,000, we expect to have 80,000 to 160,000 positive results. That doesn't mean new cases, it means new known cases or new positive results.

If the positive results are within the 8% to 16% range, THAT'S NOT A SPIKE, THAT'S EXPECTED.

If results are 25% positive, that's clearly a spike.

For the week ending June 27, 2020, positive results averaged 8.7%, on 1,873,571 tests. That's at the low end of expectations, THAT'S NOT A SPIKE

Here's the problem we're having. Instead of being told the truth, we fully expect these numbers, we're told the virus is spiking and our criminal corrupt colluding always lying democratic media sells 1000% hyperbolic fear mongering.

There is no honesty or credibility in their reporting. There's zero balance, no mitigating factors presented, all bullshit all the time.

We are being sold their agenda. They think they finally have a lie that's working, and they're going to ride it as long as they can. Four years and counting of the same old same old.

StevieRay · Jul 8, 2020

Bingo

StevieRay · Jul 8, 2020

StevieRay · Jul 8, 2020

bodyforlife · Jul 8, 2020

Wille,

I'm sure you remember the line from the movie North Dallas Forty when Steve Forrest says to Nick Nolte "seeing through the game is not the same as winning the game". I think that's the classic case here. Knowing everything you know (and most of this stuff is blatantly obvious) doesn't change the narrative or who controls it.

If I tried to have a rational political conversation with many of my clients and actually took them to task on many of their flawed arguments, I would simply have far fewer clients. A great example was yesterday when I had a brief conversation with a client touching upon the uptick in hospitalizations. I mentioned I felt it was because of the lack of social distancing at the riots. Personally I should have known better than to open that can of worms again. Prior to these protests, even the media said they were concerned about the impact the riots would have. Fast forward 3 weeks, and just like clockwork, there's an uptick. Then suddenly the narrative is changed. And the minute I brought it up, there was this adamant "it was the bars!" response followed by some story about how her and her husband saw some people in a small town partying (obviously not exactly rational when I had just mentioned in the 3 major cities of Texas, there were well over 100k people protesting, many with arms locked, and just inches from each other). Next we had the comment about opening up too early. I told her the interesting thing about that is when I asked what I perceived as a simple question ..."if it's too early to open up, what is your metric for when we should open", I got nothing but crickets. Instead of answering the question, she went on about how her firm based their opening on the Governor's orders but she had figures that showed we had opened too early. I looked at her and knew if I went on to ask what those figures were and re-ask the question on her metric for re-opening, the next response would have been "maybe we don't need to work together any more". And this woman is a partner in a very successful law firm (yet, I'd never want her on my side on a controlled debate because I know we'd be crushed).

Many of the arguments on this board are completely rational (some aren't and some people have blinders on regardless of what side of the aisle they're on). Ultimately, we just have to understand the audience. I know you well enough to know that despite how rational your arguments are, you would never think of making many of the comments to your clients (sometimes I need to put a sock in it and take my own advice, especially since I am fortunate to be working right now).

Right now, this is my reality...

https://austin.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/0ad7fa50ba504e73be9945ec2a7841cb

That number was 14.6 on June 12th (3 days before the re-opening of my health club). I at least can take my hat off to my business as they had metrics for every stage (albeit a bit unrealistic). If we got down to below 5, the masks could come off but social distancing stays in place. To go completely back to normal, the number had to be zero (completely ridiculous). With us now being above 70, whether I want to believe the narrative or not, we are nearing going back to shutdown. Are hospitalizations subjective and is it possible that people that were being sent home 2 months ago are told they now need to be admitted? Of course they are. But what's the likelihood I'll be successful making that argument....ZERO!

Again...."seeing through the game is not the same as winning the game". I would be better serve planning for this and understanding my options, instead of making rational arguments that are going to go nowhere. We both know that when this election is over, most of this stuff will go away. It's not going to do me any good getting my blood pressure jacked up over this.

StevieRay · Jul 8, 2020

[h=1]St. Augustine sued by state representative over face mask ordinance[/h]

StevieRay · Jul 8, 2020

StevieRay · Jul 8, 2020

“Friends dad died from liver failure before 911 call... Get the DEATH certificate and covid was a reason for death... WTH “

Heatwave · Jul 8, 2020

Have said it a few times here. People need to be prepared for a final case number of 30M at the minimum, which is 10% of our population.

Problem is, people are making assumptions that 5-10% of people with cases will die, because when testing was lower in April, that number was true. 10% of 30M cases is 3M deaths, which will not happen. Not even the most ridiculous model suggests this. Less people will die over time as the virus weakens, medical folks get better at treatment, and we stop doing dumb things like protesting during a pandemic, or pretending that this virus is gone and go to crowded places.

The numbers shouldn't be shocking to people, I agree. But most people don't think things through very well, and math is not good for most.

crudebar · Jul 8, 2020

Second wave? When did the 1st wave end?

Serbone · Jul 8, 2020

We have been lied to all along... it will be shoved up our ass until Nov 4, then taper away. The Democrat states and cities (mayors) all have marching orders.

We should protect >65 with underlying conditions, the rest can go live their lives, no masks or other BS.

busterhyman · Jul 8, 2020

butttttttttttt..didn't you read fuckfacenothings newest thread

Jax · Jul 9, 2020

For the people here who don't think Corona Virus is a serious health problem, why have the vast majority of first world nations, implemented a successful and coherent national strategy to fight Corona Virus and have been vastly more successful than the US in mitigating the virus' spread?

The US had a supposed travel ban on China in the early stages. Now the EU has a travel ban on AMERICANS.

In March we did not want be like Italy. Now, IF ONLY we could be like Italy.

South Korea and the US both had their first confirmed case of Corona Virus on the same day, Jan 20, 2020. South Korea had a TOTAL of less than 300 deaths in the entire pandemic and did not even need to shut down their economy. The US has over 130,000 deaths, and we're bordering on having to shut down the economy in many states for a second time.

Trump said in late Feb that we now have 15 cases and in couple days we'll be down to zero. Not quite. Now we have over 3 million cases in the US.

This New York Times chart outlines the worst outbreaks in the world and is from July 8, and compares individual STATES compared to other nations. Basically, we're doing about as well or worse than third world nations like Oman, Bahrain, and Kazakhstan.

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bodyforlife · Jul 9, 2020

Jax said:
For the people here who don't think Corona Virus is a serious health problem, why have the vast majority of first world nations, implemented a successful and coherent national strategy to fight Corona Virus and have been vastly more successful than the US in mitigating the virus' spread?

The US had a supposed travel ban on China in the early stages. Now the EU has a travel ban on AMERICANS.

In March we did not want be like Italy. Now, IF ONLY we could be like Italy.

South Korea and the US both had their first confirmed case of Corona Virus on the same day, Jan 20, 2020. South Korea had a TOTAL of less than 300 deaths in the entire pandemic and did not even need to shut down their economy. The US has over 130,000 deaths, and we're bordering on having to shut down the economy in many states for a second time.

Trump said in late Feb that we now have 15 cases and in couple days we'll be down to zero. Not quite. Now we have over 3 million cases in the US.

This New York Times chart outlines the worst outbreaks in the world and is from July 8, and compares individual STATES compared to other nations. Basically, we're doing about as well or worse than third world nations like Oman, Bahrain, and Kazakhstan.

Honestly all the rebuttals to your post have been made over and over for the past 3 months, so I'm guessing no one's in the mood to reinvent the wheel here. Ultimately, the biggest problems from the start on this thing has it's been wrongly politicized. The media has been disingenuous, as has the CDC, estimates have been grossly inaccurate, and the goalposts have been moved constantly. If the media had an ounce of integrity (including the source you're quoting), it would do wonders to unite people. Instead the MSM is all about dividing. Have a nice night. No need to waste any time at all having a debate. You're not changing anyone's mind and they won't change yours. Do have a nice evening.

daboyzinblue · Jul 9, 2020

It maybe political inside the walls of the US but what about the other 9m cases in countries around the world? Countries have been put on lockdown with much stricter policies than the US. So whats their reasons for doing so? Politics too?

JavyBaez9 · Jul 10, 2020

daboyzinblue said:
It maybe political inside the walls of the US but what about the other 9m cases in countries around the world? Countries have been put on lockdown with much stricter policies than the US. So whats their reasons for doing so? Politics too?

Politics in America impacts every square inch of this earth.

VIEJODINOSAUR · Jul 10, 2020

Sporting events need to come back in a huge way.....

bodyforlife · Jul 10, 2020

daboyzinblue said:
It maybe political inside the walls of the US but what about the other 9m cases in countries around the world? Countries have been put on lockdown with much stricter policies than the US. So whats their reasons for doing so? Politics too?

Exactly what does that have to do in relation to the entire comment I made?

Willie99 · Jul 10, 2020

daboyzinblue said:
It maybe political inside the walls of the US but what about the other 9m cases in countries around the world? Countries have been put on lockdown with much stricter policies than the US. So whats their reasons for doing so? Politics too?

Is their media fighting their reopening like our media is? Is their media blaming everything about the pandemic on one political party? Are they not reopening? Are they not going back to school? Despite doing FAR LESS TESTING?

If you test more, you find the cases we already know are out there, yet we're pretending otherwise

Yes, it's political, beyond any reasonable doubt

Willie99 · Jul 10, 2020

Jax said:
For the people here who don't think Corona Virus is a serious health problem, why have the vast majority of first world nations, implemented a successful and coherent national strategy to fight Corona Virus and have been vastly more successful than the US in mitigating the virus' spread?

The US had a supposed travel ban on China in the early stages. Now the EU has a travel ban on AMERICANS.

In March we did not want be like Italy. Now, IF ONLY we could be like Italy.

South Korea and the US both had their first confirmed case of Corona Virus on the same day, Jan 20, 2020. South Korea had a TOTAL of less than 300 deaths in the entire pandemic and did not even need to shut down their economy. The US has over 130,000 deaths, and we're bordering on having to shut down the economy in many states for a second time.

Trump said in late Feb that we now have 15 cases and in couple days we'll be down to zero. Not quite. Now we have over 3 million cases in the US.

This New York Times chart outlines the worst outbreaks in the world and is from July 8, and compares individual STATES compared to other nations. Basically, we're doing about as well or worse than third world nations like Oman, Bahrain, and Kazakhstan.

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Nobody said it wasn't serious, you're attacking a strawman you created. Furthermore, my OP was about a very argument you're trying to make. We're not experiencing a spike in new cases, we're just finding more of the 30 to 60 million Americans that we're told have it but are asymptomatic. If you test 1,000,000 such people, we're supposed to find 100,000 positive tests.

Putting things in perspective makes a huge difference

New cases, what the numbers mean, and they don't mean a second wave

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