Monday Service Play Thread 07/13/2020

BuzzKill · Jul 12, 2020

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BuzzKill · Jul 13, 2020

Newsletters - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=307&p=13180987&viewfull=1#post13180987

ConleyPicks · Jul 13, 2020

Pick Wise soccer picks
man united -1
Inter milan to win & over 2 1/2 goals
Real madrid moneyline

bmd1803 · Jul 13, 2020

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 13, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Woodbine Mohawk Park has 10-races scheduled for Monday evening. It's a competitive card and my focus will be on the 0.20 Late Pick 4 sequence which begins in Race 7.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

2-Siddhartha (9/2)-Took advantage of a quick pace and drew off with a .55 back half to snag a win and was bet down to 3/2. Meets a new crew tonight but Shepherd may work a similar trip, so best to respect.
3-Day Delight (8-1)-This colt has been tough to figure this year. Roy can work a nice trip from this post but will need to finish off the mile. Starts inside of the two program chalks and is worth a swing at a nice price.
6-Night Watchman (5/2)-Had a rough journey from a bad post in the Gold Final and now drops to a spot to start another winning streak. Program chalk is a threat but needs a smooth trip and to mind manners.
7-Sundown Kid (7/2)-Filion takes a seat on McIntosh trainee as Henry opts to #6. Raced the back half in 55.2 but couldn't catch the winner. Fits better versus this group and maybe Filion can find a little more down the lane.

Race 8

1-Salome (7/2)-Qualified at Phl in 201.4 all on her own. Kadabra filly was in the Nifty Norman barn and appears to have some ability. Could be over bet but best to respect.
4-Mag N Lady (6-1)-Qualified on 7/3 and raced the back half in 58.1 and Roy is aboard again. May race closer to the lead and pick off some gals down the lane.
8-Stonebridge Strong (8-1)-Qualified back on 6/19 and that is a concern but will assume ready. If they go to the half in a minute or so, this filly could be flying late. Did have the fastest 2nd half and last quarter of anyone in the field.

Race 9

1-Cliffhanger (7/2)-Should like the company, and there is not much gate speed in this race. Sometimes when that's the case many leave but it's doubtful the opening half goes in 54.3 this time. McNair can control things and steal a quarter.
8-Icy Blue Scooter (9/2)-Was better in last when dropped to this level but is 0-6 this year. The race will be in front of JMac and 7-year-old could win if the pace is lively and the steer is top notch.

Race 10

2-HP Bruxelless (7/2)-Filion wanted the lead in last and used up some gas to get it before being dispatched by #9. My guess is this time a pocket trip could fall into place which leads to a brush down the lane to roll by.
6-Lovedbythemasses (10-1)-Looking for better tonight than last at GeoD. Has hit the board in all 7 starts at Wbsb with 5 wins. Saftic has some options from this post and can come off cover at a square price.
9- Villefranche As (3-1)-Winner of 2 straight has gotten the top and wasn't threatened when leaving from post 5 & 6. With a smooth trip it could be picture time again and some may single. Will respect, but from the 9-hole will use others.

0.20 Late Pick 4

2,3,6,7/1,4,8/1,8/2,6,9
Total Bet=$$14.40

bmd1803 · Jul 13, 2020

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Canterbury Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#3 Bye Bye Bennie Class dropper was facing tons better off the long layoff last time when a middling 6th, now drops and goes second-off, and could offer a hint of value as well; looks primed.
#10 Gopher Gold ML favorite is the class and will like this easier group on the drop, but he's never tried turf, isn't bred for it, and is trying two turns as well; the horse to beat has some knocks.
#1 Dixie Blues The horse with the best turf form hasn't shown it in almost two years, but got his prep off the long break out of the way, and should improve returning to the grass; worth a look.
Race Summary You aren't getting that 12-1 ML on the pick, but even 5-1 or so in this field is plenty good enough, especially when it's easy to surmise this was the plan all along, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the 10% takeout Pk5, as he figures to improve in a big way off his return, and that would be plenty good enough to give him a big chance against a group like this.

Canterbury Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#5 Whiskyforbreakfast Stiff ML favorite drops in class off a solid 2nd in his return, meets a weak field, and still ha plenty of upside off just two starts; imposing.
#4 Don's Final Final Logical sort was a month behind the pick two-back then rebounded last time, and a repeat puts him in the picture clearly the main danger.
#7 Shattered Dreams Stalker has been running in some fast races and now drops in class, but he's never tried two turns, and drew poorly; using underneath only.
Race Summary Swing away with an aggressive win bet if you sniff that 8-5 ML on the pick, as he looks more in the odds-on range, but his real value comes in the 10% takeout Pk5, as well as in kicking off the late Pk4, as you can single him, which will allow for more coverage in the other legs, as he looks to have this field over a barrel.

Canterbury Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Off the Meds Price player was a fine 2nd off the small layoff last time, drew best of all, should get an honest pace to rally into, and could get a bit overlooked on the board; upset special.
#10 Heat Flash Broberg runner goes for a potent barn and showed he's back with a big run at LS, though this wide draw and underlaid price take away some of the appeal; still, plenty scary.
#8 Pine Grove Road ML favorite beat the pick by a 1 1/4 lengths last time and therefore will be a handful here, but the 10 will be glued to him the entire way, and he could regress too; trying to beat.
Race Summary You should get plenty of value on the, as not only is the horse who beat him last time back, but a top new shooter is here too, but it's the pick who drew perfectly, and has every right to improve on his last, so play him in all the slots, and especially the 10% takeout Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, since a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.

bmd1803 · Jul 13, 2020

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1
Picks Notes
#3 Tristan's Triology Finished with some enthusiasm last time out, and he'll go second off the bench here while getting class relief. Doubt he's offering the 4/1 ML price.
#1 Baysider Didn't miss by much at this trip two starts back, and after fading going long, the cutback should work in his favor.
#5 My Brother Steve Longshot makes the third start off the layoff, and while he almost never shows up with a run that would be competitive here, there are a couple of back tries that could land a piece at a huge number if he steps up today.
Race Summary Tristan's Trilogy is probably never getting back to the 2018 form, but he's capable of something a bit better than that try against allowance company last out.

Mountaineer - Race #2
Picks Notes
#9 Thisaintjumpstreet Has a little bit of versatility as far as running style, and he should be able to sit behind the two speed players and launch a bid ahead of the deeper finishers.
#8 Walking Princess She's the clear one to beat in this second start off the bench, and she hasn't been in this easy in quite some time. Probably handles these.
#1 Vaughn Finisher didn't really get rolling last time out, but she can do better with that run under her belt, and she has some races from last year that stack up nicely.
Race Summary Thisaintjumpstreet should be able to settle in behind Walking Princess and #2 J Z's Diva in the early going, and the price will be right to see if she can take advantage if that pace comes back.

Mountaineer - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 Duches of Grace Price player easily cleared the maiden ranks at Belterra last out, and there are a few players in here who are going to take plenty of cash, leaving this mare with a real chance in this second start off the layoff with the nice win in her pocket.
#6 Starry Affair Looked like she might have some potential off the mice maiden win back in 2018, but she went evenly in a stakes try and hasn't been heard from since. Would be no surprise if she got home first and no surprise if she finished last.
#9 Fancy Fierce Best stuff stacks up well here, but she's also going to get overbet off the 16-length romp with a perfect trip in the slop last time out. Deeper waters here.
Race Summary Duches of Grace will almost surely be double digits on the board in this one after an easy maiden win at Belterra that produced a slow fig, but that came off the bench, and she might have more to offer this time around.

bmd1803 · Jul 13, 2020

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 It's Cold in Dehere Ran on well to hit the board in her last three and Amoss stable has been tough everywhere lately; has beaten better rivals than what she faces today.
#4 Kalalou Ran on strongly and was up in time at Prairie Meadows last out and has the class to be a strong late threat.
#2 A.P. Princess Ran off to an easy 3 1-4-length score over overmatched foes at Belterra but was competitive at Oaklawn and Turfway earlier; her best gives her a big chance.
Race Summary It's Cold in Dehere can be closer to the pace than usual, can take advantage of a ground-saving trip and should have enough left to hold off her opponents.

Indiana Grand - Race #4
Picks Notes
#7 Glamour Gal Was 4th in a fast race here and tired against some of these two back at Churchill; she should get a more aggressive run through the early portion and can dig in here. Goldencents filly usable at a good price.
#5 Sister Kitten Was in the mix throughout and held second at Churchill (ahead of 3rd pick Loving Moment) and has some good late energy to show. Clearly a big player.
#3 Loving Moment Was too late in her bid vs. strong foes at Churchill and attempts to rally against a slow pace; gets a better pace set-up and could be motoring late.
Race Summary There are plenty of fillies and mares from good barns and will get there fair share of play. That leaves Glamour Gal as a possible very-good price and her best effort gives here a big chance at an upset.

Indiana Grand - Race #7
Picks Notes
#2 Comfort Me Now Was close-up through slow fractions and drew off to an easy score last out; he's at his best from just off the pace and won't have to improve much to get a repeat win.
#9 Classy Cowboy Has exceptional speed, will be on the front end and could back up the pace to his liking; could be hard catch today.
#3 Uphold Comes out of much tougher open allowance races in 2019 and fits well in his return; goes with blinkers off.
Race Summary Comfort Me Now's last race was too good to ignore and he really improved from 4th in a five-furlong to the 4 3-4-length win going two turns last out. Looks improved as a 4-year-old and could be dismissed at a good price as he just won last time vs. N3L state-bred foes.

bmd1803 · Jul 13, 2020

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Parx Racing - Race #6 - Post: 3:10pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1 ROLL ON BIG MAMA (ML=8/1)
#3 WHAT ABOUT TONIGHT (ML=4/1)

ROLL ON BIG MAMA - Racing over a familiar track, where she has won multiple times before, I have to put this one at the top of my list of top contenders. WHAT ABOUT TONIGHT - The June 22nd race at Parx Racing was at a class level of (90). Dropping down in the class scale significantly, so she should be in a good position to win. I like to play this handicapping angle, a pony coming back off a nice contest within the last month or so. That 82 fig this mare earned in her last event tells me she's a key player in today's event. 68-75-82 are last three Equibase speed figures. Improving each time out is something she should do again right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 NOT LEAVING (ML=5/2), #2 MONACO PRINCESS (ML=7/2), #5 KAREN'S GEM (ML=6/1),

NOT LEAVING - Today's event is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a short distance event in the last 60 days. Not the best of signs. Hasn't raced or had any drills since June 17th. Not much value on this morning-line favorite. Unlikely that the speed fig she earned on Jun 17th will be good enough in this affair. MONACO PRINCESS - Tough to bet on any horse like this that didn't finish in the money after the extended vacation and comes right back. Should have at least finished in the money in the last couple of months in a short distance race to be worth the chance at short odds in a sprint. KAREN'S GEM - 75/68/58, are the lessening Equibase speed figures for this questionable contender.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 ROLL ON BIG MAMA is the play if we get odds of 2/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,3]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

bmd1803 · Jul 13, 2020

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Meadows Tulsa
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9240 Class Rating: 69

FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 2 MONEY BARON 12/1

# 3 PRETTY SPECIAL 5/1

# 4 RANGER BOB 4/1

MONEY BARON has a decent shot to take this competition and is a strong value bet given the line at 12/1. Will almost certainly go to the front end and might never look back. Must be in form if the conditioner is bringing him back so quickly. PRETTY SPECIAL - He has strong class ratings, averaging 75, and has to be given a shot for this event. Earnings per start in dirt sprint races is strong for this horse. RANGER BOB - Look for a much better attempt with the drop. Over time, this conditioner has a very good ROI at this distance/surface.

bmd1803 · Jul 13, 2020

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fairmount Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 49

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 TOMASITA 5/1

# 10 LOGI 12/1

# 1 LITTLE MOLITTA 6/1

TOMASITA looks very good to best this field. LOGI - She has recorded very strong figures under today's conditions and should fare well against this group of animals. Looks to have a very good class edge based on the latest company kept.

bmd1803 · Jul 13, 2020

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Delaware Park - Race #5 - Post: 3:15pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $24,000 Class Rating: 85

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 I'M NOT JOKING (ML=3/1)
#4 NIKKI BELLA (ML=8/1)

I'M NOT JOKING - This mare was sharp enough to post a 'top two' workout recently. I think she's ready for today's event. Has run good races in the first or second starts back off of a vacation. Looking at this mare's running lines, I see she's almost always on the board. NIKKI BELLA - Bennett brings her back again. I recommend you stay with this strong mare.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 MIA BELLA ROSSA (ML=2/1), #6 BARLEY JACK (ML=4/1), #2 LE WEEKEND (ML=6/1),

MIA BELLA ROSSA - Tough to bet on any steed in a sprint event if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last couple of months. BARLEY JACK - Just cannot wager on this vulnerable equine. Didn't show me anything last time out or on March 9th. 87/83/56, are the declining speed figs for this vulnerable equine. LE WEEKEND - Hard to recommend any horse with lessening Equibase speed figs of 84/78/54.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - I'M NOT JOKING - I don't care what type of athletic competition you're in, when you drop down to easier competition the experience of facing stiffer competition strengthens you. This mount is live today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#3 I'M NOT JOKING is going to be the play if we are getting 3/2 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [3,4]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

ConleyPicks · Jul 13, 2020

Handicapped by Trackmaster Greg
PURCHASE
Race 7 Century Downs

9

FREEDOMS RESCUE

7/5

Kelly, David A - 25

425.40

1	1	RED STAR TIGER	8/1	Goulet, Rene J - 4	396.74
4	4	LIZARD KING	5/2	Sobey, Nathan K - 9	389.97
5	5	BEAUS COWBOY	20/1	Clark, Gary D - 0	379.76

10	AE	TOWN SPEAKER	N/A	Hennessy, Michael R - 21	378.91
3	3	ANYWHEREANYTIME	12/1	Gray, Jamie D - 9	375.32
7	7	SOMEWHEREINMEXICO	20/1	Hoerdt, Kelly O - 20	364.57
8	8	HAY HAY ALRIGHT	8/1	Grundy, Ryan - 4	353.29
2	2	TITO SANTANNA	15/1	Giesbrecht, Philip - 10	338.79
6	6	DUKE IT OUT	30/1	Gray, Brian J - 0	299.24

ConleyPicks · Jul 13, 2020

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium
PURCHASE
[h=3]Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.[/h]

[SIZE=+1]Race 12 -[/SIZE] Post: 7:37 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 80 - Purse:$5000 - FOR HORSES THAT STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $12,500 OR LESS

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 KISS A DRAGON 9/5
# 1 ALWAYS ROCK N ROLL 5/2
# 3 LETSMAKEAWISH 20/1

The choice here is KISS A DRAGON. He has been battling competitively and the TrackMaster Speed Ratings are among the most compelling in the field of horses. The number crunching team gives this solid standardbred a formidable chance to come home a winner, class ratings are tops in the group of horses. Squaring off well, earned a very promising TrackMaster speed fig in his most recent race (84). ALWAYS ROCK N ROLL - A very nice class horse should not be be glossed over. With an average class figure of 82 all signs point to yes. Not many folks know, but the 1 position here at Harrington Raceway has been terrific for an above average win statistic. LETSMAKEAWISH - The handicapping team keenly points out that when Foster trains this race horse, the odds of finishing hitting the board go way up. Appears that this solid standardbred's running style fits well in this race. Positively will be there at the finish.

ConleyPicks · Jul 13, 2020

Handicapped by Trackmaster Greg
PURCHASE
R4 Northfield Park

P#	PP	HORSE NAME	M/L	DRIVER - WIN%	POINTS
RACE 4
4	4	APPLE SOOZY	3/2	Shetler, Andy - 8	403.79
9	9	BEARCREEKHONEY	7/5	Sugg, Kurt - 14	379.58
6	6	GRACE OF ART	20/1	Grismore, Greg - 9	339.52
1	1	ROCKROCKCITYCHIC	20/1	Reynolds, Dan - 5	307.10
2	2	LIL MIFF MOLLY	20/1	Hawk, Alex - 15	287.26
5	5	WILLY THE FILLIE	20/1	Page, Chris - 17	279.14
8	8	POPS HOUSE	20/1	Stahl, Ryan - 11	260.78
3	3	MS PARKLANE POWER	6/1	Smith, Tyler - 13	0.00
7	7	SCRAPPY LIL NOBODY	20/1	Wrenn, Ronnie Jr - 26	0.00

ConleyPicks · Jul 13, 2020

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Yonkers Raceway
[h=3]Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.[/h]

[SIZE=+1]Race 3 -[/SIZE] Post: 7:45 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 76 - Purse:$12000 - NON-WINNERS OF 2 P-M RACES OR $25,000 LIFETIME. 3& 4 YEAR OLD COLTS, HORSES & GELDINGS

CONSORTIUM CHOICES
	# 2 MISTER REBBILY A 9/5
# 3 MV OK PALACIO BR 2/1
# 5 SUN OF A SHOW 9/2

MISTER REBBILY A will not be denied the score in this one. He's performing in fine form, recording bang-up speed ratings. An excellent choice. The consortium gives this solid standardbred a really good chance to take this race, class figures are tops in the field of horses. Running soundly, achieved a strong speed rating in his most recent competition (79). MV OK PALACIO BR - Many race players know speed is is such an important factor. This standardbred has credentials with a 76 average rating. Many expert selectors will recognize the top notch TrackMaster Speed Rating in the last contest. Stacks up against any horse in this field. SUN OF A SHOW - When starting from the 5 position, a much better than average win percentage has resulted. Should be considered in this race if only for the really good speed rating earned in the most recent contest.

Monday Service Play Thread 07/13/2020

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