Tuesday Service Play Thread 07/14/2020

BuzzKill · Jul 12, 2020

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BuzzKill · Jul 14, 2020

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bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Al Cimaglia: Scioto Downs Pick 5 Analysis

July 14, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Tonight, Scioto Downs has 15-races on tap and the 0.50 Pick 5 begins in Race 5. The contentious sequence has a 14% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5

1-Full On Rocknroll (8-1)-Gets post relief and has the gate speed to protect the rail. The program chalk #8, will likely be leaving and Beattie could end up with a pocket trip. Could surprise at a nice price and is a use in exacta's as well.
8-Blazin Baron (2-1)-Drops into a soft spot and has the speed to get the top. It could be picture time if lands on the engine without using a lot of gas.

Race 6

4-Lightning Belle (2-1)-Not loving the 2-1 morning line but is in a spot to be forwardly placed. Could get sucked around and rally down the lane.
8-Aqua Lillies (9/2)-Meadows shipper has been facing tougher foes than others and should have enough gate speed to get a close-up seat. Can take a picture with the right trip.

Race 7

3-Some Of You (7/2)-Will take a swing with this 3-year-old versus a suspect group of mares. Barn has been rolling, filly has won 2 of 8 at ScD, and Trevor Smith sticks.
9-I M McCited (9-1)-This gal has been bet and has burned some cash. Now draws outside and should be a price. My guess is Miller blasts out and hops on the engine. Has the gate speed to give that plan a shot and that's the best chance for a picture.

Race 8

1-Smoking Jet (7/2)-Finally draws inside in 3rd ScD start, does meet a stronger field but should stay in the hunt from start to finish.
5-Rose Run Valor (5/2)-Competitive Father Patrick 3-year-old makes 1st ScD and appears to be a player with a good a steer.

Race 9

2-Duel Of Truth (7/2)-Had a rough trip in last but kept coming with a 55.3 last half while racing wide. Should like the company and gets a positive driver change in 2nd start off the bench.
6-Major Deception (5/2)-Program chalk got caught racing wide in a very quick mile in the slop. Could not make up ground even with a 55.2 back half. Best to respect Morgan trainee in this spot.

0.50 Pick 5

1,8/4,8/3,9/1,5/2,6
Total bet=$16

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Canterbury Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#3 Sweeping Edge Expected stiff favorite has been facing open foes and now drops into a state-bred heat, is 5-for-10 locally, and goes for a potent Broberg barn; too much for these.
#7 Water Patrol Litfin claim (12%) enters off two laughers against open and should trip out, though the pick has more firepower on paper, so she needs to step up; the main danger.
#2 Public Safety Lightly raced runner was a decent 3rd in a state-bred stakes last time, so in theory this is a drop, but the top pair aren't your normal Mn breds either; underneath only.
Race Summary You certainly won't get rich on the 3, but that 2-1 ML would be an overlay, as he's simply better than these, so make an aggressive win and place bet if you can sniff 8-5 or better, though you can get some guaranteed value by singling him to kick off the 10% takeout Pk5, since that's not a move the betting public likes to make to kick off a sequence, and the 7 will take plenty of play as well, so a win would not only knock out some tickets, but will allow for more coverage in the upcoming four legs as well.

Canterbury Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#2 Viva Forever Veteran got back to the turf last time and really improved, and while she's winless in eight starts on the grass, a repeat of that run, which came at the level, would put her in the mix here, plus she drew well, and will offer plenty of value too; upset special.
#3 Trish the Dish Tricky read wins this by 4 with her best but was basically eased the last time we saw her at GP in Jan., and now she's in a new barn off the break, but there's also no drop, and she's been with Brinson here before, so the freshening may do her good; using.
#7 Carriage State-bred was just a close 6th with a big figure (for these) in her last, and is 2-for-6 over the local course too, and if you toss the no-show sprint return two-back her form really comes into focus, at what should be a nice price as well; contention runs deep.
Race Summary That 10-1 ML seems like plenty of risk-reward on the 2, as this isn't a great group, and the two (unmentioned) favorites, #4 and #1, look no better than any of the top-3 above, so give 'Viva a look in all the slots, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since she's in the mix with these off that last run, at a much better price too, which means a win would go a long way in blowing up both sequences.

Canterbury Park - Race #7
Picks Notes
#4 True West Class riser was a good 3rd off the break last time, should be able to build off that in what is a confident rise, and should get some speed to rally into as well; can surprise.
#6 Herbie The chalk didn't see out two turns last time, at ods-on, so the cutback makes sense, but with other speed here, a meek run, and a short price, he's no lock; underneath only.
#9 Blue Jeans N Beer Stalker beat the pick last time and therefore clearly fits here, and he'll get first run too, but you wonder if he regresses off what was his best run in a while; mixed signals.
Race Summary You'll get plenty of value on the 4, even though he's not far out of this on paper and has every right to improve on his last, so give him a look in all the slots, and in the 10% takeout Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, since he could fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would go a long way in adding plenty of value to both sequences.

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1
Picks Notes
#8 Selling Out Has hit or miss form, but there are some really solid tries on the page, and he has handled the turf in the past. Mid-range price chance?
#5 Heart in Hand Just handled some of these last time out, and he has been consistent and tough when facing this kind in the past. The one to beat at a shorter price than his $10 payoff last out.
#1 Arch Revenge Couldn't hold off Heart in Hand when they met last time out, but he also doesn't need to have the front end. Wouldn't be a total surprise to see him turn the tables.
Race Summary Selling Out is worth a look at what should be a playable price on the board, and he's capable of something better than he showed in the off going last out.

Mountaineer - Race #2
Picks Notes
#8 Loupacate Local debut went well while making the first North American start, and she should be in line for another nice trip near the top today.
#2 Baroness Vontrappe Comeback run wasn't much, but the move back to the turf might work in her favor, and she has handled two-turn trips in the past.
#5 Chasing the Kitty Winless from five starts on the turf, but that last try wasn't all bad when just fading late. Third start off the bench might produce a good one today?
Race Summary Loupacate ran well off a very long layoff last time out when just tiring late, and she should be tighter with that race under her belt. Any step forward makes her a real handful here.

Mountaineer - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Kitten's Man Maiden winner steps up to face better, but those two local races have been really sharp, and something like those efforts would get the job done here on the hike. Price won't be much, but he sure looks like the right one.
#2 Total Distraction Not quite sure what to make of this one, but the three-back Tampa run would fit very well here if he's able to run back to it. Would want better than the 7/2 ML offering.
#9 Zafir Should get a pretty nice run of things from the wide draw, and his spying style should serve him well here. He's another where I would want something very close to the 3/1 ML price to consider it.
Race Summary Kitten's Man probably gets bet here, and he might be the right kind of multi-race single. He'll get another good trip near the top and probably handles these at a short price with anything like his last pair.

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #2
Picks Notes
#2 DELCREST MAGICSTAR Escaped trap, closed 4-wide in stretch, finished third.
#5 JOPLIN Stacked up in lively outer flow, bothered by breaker on turn.
#6 RUSH LANE Gets needed class relief, must stay in closer contact early.
Race Summary Delcrest Magicstar tracked the pace 3-deep, found room to angle out when the rival to her outside went off stride near the ¾-mile mark, then closed wide to finish third. Play a 2-5-6 exacta box.

Pocono Downs - Race #1
Picks Notes
#9 KAFFIR KEMP Chased odds-on fave for second runner-up finish in a row.
#5 SORTIE HANOVER Burned money against similar, can awaken off the claim.
#7 AXIOS Carried speed to back-to-back wins since return and third straight overall.
Race Summary Kaffir Kemp got caught by the 2-to-1 pocket sitter two starts back, then chased the 1-to-5 winner around the track last week. Early position will be the key from a difficult starting spot, but his price should be better as a result.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #9
Picks Notes
#1 BIG MYRTLE Moves outside in, figures close-up throughout, offers some value.
#5 LANDRY SEELSTER Steady check-getter was beaten fave in prior sire stakes try.
#2 MACH ME ONEMORE Disappointed on trip to Georgian Downs, can’t be discounted.
Race Summary Big Myrtle tracked the 2-to-1 winner through solid fractions and held third as the favorite. She gets a favorable post switch for her first try in sire stakes competition. Play 1-2 and 1-5 exactas.

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #2
Picks Notes
#1 Sir Brahms Was up in time in his 1st one here and was claimed by Garcia stable; ran well vs. Arkansas-bred allowance runners and that should translate well to this starter allowance.
#3 Odie Crushed conditioned claimers at Indiana Grand last out and has taken two of his last three; super tough if he runs back to his last one.
#5 Most Mischief Was 3rd in his two attempts at Churchill Downs and is back on the right track after running poorly in three straight; capable of a big run and Bejarano makes the trip for the ride.
Race Summary Sir Brahms outgamed a good group last time and makes his 1st for Garcia, who is going at a 27-percent local clip.

Indiana Grand - Race #4
Picks Notes
#2 Midnight Blue Note Made a strong run from 9th to 2nd in the stretch during his 1st local start and Parker keeps the mount; fits nicely at this level.
#10 Soul Song Was tough on the front end vs. Louisiana-breds at Fair Grounds and trainer Amoss is hitting at 28 percent.
#12 Dance Proudly Ran a solid 3rd after three months off and can make another big run; has won 13 of 22 at Indiana Grand and seeks his 1st win of his 10-year-old season.
Race Summary Midnight Blue Note will have the pace in front of him and can get a better trip from the inside; will come rolling.

Indiana Grand - Race #7
Picks Notes
#8 Pretty Boy Dave Was an easy winner in his 1st Indiana Grand start of the year and much better than last year when he was a 2-year-old; clearly has figured this out and can get a repeat win if he runs back to his latest.
#10 Music to My Ears Was claimed at Santa Anita by Davis stable and took on some good company there and at Golden Gate and Del Mar; was a $400K purchase as a 2-year-old.
#5 Seminole Justice Has good speed and can get tot he lead vs. these; his best makes him a threat to wire this group.
Race Summary Pretty Boy Dave crushed state-bred maidens last out and can be in the hunt throughout; has done well since running poorly in his first two.

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Belterra

Race 1:#3 Traumarama (5/2)
Race 2:#9 Surge Pricing (5/2)
Race 3:#5 Tiger Trail (7/2
Race 4:#2 Crazy Sexy Munny (5/2)
Race 5:#7 Takechargecomanche (3/1)
Race 6:#7 Price to Pay (6/1)
Race 7:#1 Armada (5/1)
Race 8:#9 Her Gold Mine (5/1)

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Canterbury

Race 1:#3 Hamazing Vision (9/5)
Race 2:#1 Steal the Thunder (9/5)
Race 3:#4 Creative Art (8/5)
Race 4:#8 Drama Chorus (5/1)
Race 5:#3 Sweeping Edge (2/1)
Race 6:#1 Bonnet (7/2)
Race 7:#2 Drop the Gloves (9/2)
Race 8:#9 Geauxcro (2/1)
Race 9:#4 Amanda Story (9/5)

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Fairmount

Race 1:#1 Scarlet Position (5/2)
Race 2:#4 Beemie Award (2/1)
Race 3:#1 Victory Pie (8/5)
Race 4:#7 Wood Not Mind (3/1)
Race 5:#8 Catania (8/5)
Race 6:#6 Great Scat (6/5)
Race 7:#8 Virga (6/1)

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Fort Erie

Race 1:#3 Charlie’s Game (9/5)
Race 2:#4 Romantic Gizmo (2/1)
Race 3:#6 Obliviously (5/1)
Race 4:#2 Quality Brew (3/1)
Race 5:#5 Precious Badge (7/5)
Race 6:#5 Omar (6/1)
Race 7:#1 Annie O’Schiller (3/1)

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Hastings

Race 1:#1 Great Gasby (8/5)
Race 2:#4 Alucia (5/1)
Race 3:#7 Bold Arch (4/1)
Race 4:#7 Baldr (2/1)
Race 5:#3 Crackdown (4/1)
Race 6:#10 Cascade Billy (10/1)
Race 7:#3 Bad and Bougie (4/1)

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Indiana Grand

Race 1:#2 Passing On By (8/5)
Race 2:#6 Ace Destroyer (3/1)
Race 3:#2 Kingoftherainbow (6/5)
Race 4:#11 Bye Bye Birdstone (10/1)
Race 5:#2 She’s the Boss (4/5)
Race 6:#3 Full of Run (4/1)
Race 7:#2 El Bohemio (10/1)
Race 8:#7 Spanish Peaks (1/1)
Race 9:#6 Vegas Corona (3/1)
Race 10:#9 Wrs Raise the Bar (8/5)

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

LA Downs

Race 1:#4 Battalstown (7/2)
Race 2:#4 Pat Me Down (7/2)
Race 3:#7 Hanging Lake (6/1)
Race 4:#1 Stephen’s Answer (3/1)
Race 5:#2 Fun Paddy (3/1)
Race 6:#8 Budro Talking (9/5)
Race 7:#6 Mayan Ghost (3/1)

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Mountaineer

Race 1:#3 Thorpe d’Oro (6/1)
Race 2:#2 Baroness Vontrappe (3/1)
Race 3:#3 Jerzees One (9/5)
Race 4:#5 Roraima (6/1)
Race 5:#6 Charming Deputy (6/1)
Race 6:#2 Queens Dude (8/5)
Race 7:#8 Truly Val (3/1)
Race 8:#5 Kitten’s Man (5/2)
Race 9:#10 Za Woodman (6/1)

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Parx

Race 1:#1 Bayleaf (7/5)
Race 2:#2 Ana Lass (4/1)
Race 3:#6 Take Me Home (10/1)
Race 4:#6 Heatherly (9/5)
Race 5:#3 Antrim Aubrey (5/1)
Race 6:#1 Boat Over the Hill (4/1)
Race 7:#7 Glory Song (9/5)
Race 8:#6 Blue Buff (5/2)
Race 9:#8 Tig Tog (8/1)
Race 10:#5 Mr Phil (3/1)
Race 11:#2 Bet the Pot (5/2)

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Thistledown

Race 1:#1 Your Moms Calling (6/1)
Race 2:#5 Paint Dakota (4/1)
Race 3:#2 Ruby Two Shoes (5/1)
Race 4:#4 Paltarrevenge (3/1)
Race 5:#6 Rise to Power (3/1)
Race 6:#4 Shez Shacked Up (7/2)
Race 7:#6 Dare Day (6/5)
Race 8:#3 Pretty Stormy (6/1)

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 94

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OPTIONAL, STARTER, OR OHIO BRED. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 14 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 DARE DAY 6/5

# 1 HE'S NO BULL 6/1

# 4 JOSIE'S RIDDLE 10/1

DARE DAY is my choice. Has been racing very well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Tough to pass on this gelding with Rivera in the saddle. Looks very strong against this group and should be one of the front-runners. HE'S NO BULL - The average Equibase class rating of 87 makes this horse tough to beat. Has performed very well lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 87 avg speed rating. JOSIE'S RIDDLE - This gelding gets a boost with Ceballos in the irons. Must be considered - I like the figs from the last outing.

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2020 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 5 KELLER'S GOLD 4/1

# 4 CREATIVE ART 8/5

# 6 VALLEY WILDCAT 8/1

I think about KELLER'S GOLD here. Velazquez's return on investment over the last month automatically makes this horse a strong contender. Should be given a chance in this competition if only for the competitive Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last affair. Must be given consideration given the class of races run lately. CREATIVE ART - Has very strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in here. Should be given a shot based on the solid speed rating earned in the last competition. VALLEY WILDCAT - Garnered a formidable speed rating in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest.

bmd1803 · Jul 14, 2020

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Belterra Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:04pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#5 CAUSE FOR PARDON (ML=7/2)
#6 MOON LAUNCH (ML=5/1)

CAUSE FOR PARDON - Ran last out against a better group of horses at Gulfstream Park. The move to a lower class rank should suit him well. When I handicap a grass race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This thoroughbred has the highest average class in the entire group. You should overlook that last race at Gulfstream Park on the soft turf where he finished off the board. Should do well in this race without the slop. MOON LAUNCH - Nice return on investment for this jock and trainer twosome. I think the shorter trip will help this gelding stay the trip. I like that latest race on June 24th at Belterra Park where he finished first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 SURGE PRICING (ML=5/2), #10 CALIFORNIA SUN (ML=9/2), #3 ITS YES (ML=6/1),

SURGE PRICING - This gelding has already been defeated as the public's choice twice. Hard to give him another chance. Can't really back the favorite when he has multiple failures as the public's top choice. ITS YES - Tough to put your dough on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as frequently as this one does. A bit of a less than stellar performance when this colt finished seventh. This colt notched a speed fig in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Bet on #5 CAUSE FOR PARDON to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [5,6]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

Tuesday Service Play Thread 07/14/2020

Let's go Brandon!

Let's go Brandon!

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