Sal Johnson
The Memorial Tournament
Since the restart, we have had quite a list of winners. It started with Daniel Berger, who was considered a star of the future until he hurt the index finger on his right hand at the 2018 Travelers. Just short of two years after the injury, Berger won the Charles Schwab last month after the PGA Tour took three months off in the midst of the COVID-19 crisis.
Since then, it has been a string of marquee names atop the leaderboard, from Webb Simpson at Harbour Town to Dustin Johnson coming off his own injuries to win at The Travelers. Bryson DeChambeau won at the Rocket Mortgage, and then there was the great battle where Collin Morikawa won the Workday Charity, beating Justin Thomas in a three-hole playoff.
Coming off that win, Morikawa is among the favorites this week at 22-1, according to William Hill, while Thomas is the second favorite at 11-1 behind DeChambeau (10-1). Morikawa is 23 and turned pro just 13 months ago. He has two Tour victories, and in 54 weeks he has gone from 623rd in the Official World Golf Ranking to 13th.
In 24 PGA Tour starts, Morikawa has more wins (2) than missed cuts (1), and he has become one of the better players from tee to green. He is first on Tour in Strokes Gained Approach and eighth in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. The key to his game is consistency, and he doesn't have many high numbers. In his 24 starts, he has shot 74 or higher just four times, with 75 his worst round. Fans and bettors will be watching Morikawa closely at the Memorial.
Thomas deserves to be a favorite this week despite not closing the deal after having a three-shot lead with just three holes left at the Workday Charity. He bogeyed two of his last three holes on Sunday then bogeyed the third playoff hole after hitting behind a tree.
DeChambeau has been the best player on Tour since the restart. In four starts, he has a win and finished T-3, T-6 and T-8. During that stretch, he is 69 under par and has gone over par just once. He won the Memorial in 2018, and that should end any debate on who the favorite is this week.
Another player to watch will be Daniel Berger (40-1), who took three weeks off after a T-3 at the RBC Heritage and a win at Colonial.
Dustin Johnson returns after two weeks off, and in 11 starts at Muirfield Village he has been in the top 10 three times. Johnson has the added confidence of his Travelers win. His game was good from tee to green, and he had a great putting week at the Travelers, finishing fourth in Strokes Gained Putting.
Kevin Streelman has been hot and also plays well at the Memorial, so he might be a player to watch. In his last two starts, he was second to Johnson at the Travelers and T-7 at the Workday Charity. He finished fourth at last year's Memorial.
After DeChambeau, the second-most consistent player since the break is Viktor Hovland. He has gotten better in every one of his starts, finishing T-23 at the Charles Schwab, T-21 at RBC Heritage, T-11 at Travelers, T-12 at Rocket Mortgage and third at the Workday Charity.
A surprising player since the break has been Ian Poulter, who was T-29 at the Charles Schwab, T-14 at RBC Heritage, 64th at the Travelers and T-5 at the Workday Charity. A second week at Muirfield Village could be good for him.
You also have to like defending champion Patrick Cantlay. He was T-11 at the Travelers and T-7 here last week, going 11 under. In his last 12 rounds at Muirfield Village, he is 44 under par.
Everyone also will be wondering about Tiger Woods, who is making his first PGA Tour start since the Genesis Open in February. He looked good at the charity match in teaming with Peyton Manning to beat Phil Mickelson and Tom Brady, so you have to think he will be OK. He hasn't played in five months and will be a bit rusty. He isn't likely to win, but he should play well.
About Muirfield Village
This is the 45th edition of the Memorial, on a course that was the dream of Jack Nicklaus. During the 1966 Masters, Nicklaus told some close friends he wanted to bring a major championship to his childhood home of Columbus, Ohio. The best course in town, Scioto Country Club, was not big enough to hold a tournament, Jack thought he could find some land and build a course with the same characteristics as Augusta National. He wanted an event that would mirror The Masters.
Nicklaus bought land in the suburb of Dublin and built Muirfield Village, which almost bankrupted him. The course opened in 1974, and the tournament started two years later. The course also has hosted several major events, including the 1986 U.S. Junior Amateur, the 1987 Ryder Cup, the 1992 U.S. Amateur, the 1998 Solheim Cup and the 2013 Presidents Cup.
The 34 different champions of the Memorial have accounted for 511 wins on the PGA Tour, while 17 of the winners have combined to win 68 major championships. What's more, 15 of the last 27 Memorial champions have been a winner of a major championship.
Keys to winning
Accuracy is critical at Muirfield, and 11 of the last 17 winners have been in the top 10 in Driving Accuracy. It's also important to be a great shotmaker, with 11 of the last 23 winners finishing in the top four in greens hit, and four leading that stat. Only three of the past 12 winners have been higher than 13th in Greens in Regulation.
Scrambling and putting are also keys. Making eagles and birdies on the course is tough, which was what Nicklaus had in mind when he designed the course.
√ The fairways are demanding. There are a lot of trees and high rough, and the fairway bunkers make it tough to get the next shot to the green. So you have to think of accuracy before distance. Justin Thomas saw a bit of this in Sunday's playoff, as he hit his drive on the third playoff hole (the 10th) just off the fairway but behind a tree. That led to the bogey that cost him the tournament.
√ Hitting greens is very important. Last week, players hit only 63.62% of the greens, making it the sixth-hardest course in 2020 to get on in regulation.
√ If players miss the green, it is not pretty. Last week, players got up and down only 52.32% of the time, making the course the hardest to scramble on in 2020.
√ It's tough to keep it together for four days at Muirfield Village. Since the event began in 1976, 4,787 players have competed, and only 392 have played all four rounds under par. Only 11 of those players have been in the 60s all four days, and defending champion Patrick Cantlay was one of them.
√ If you want to win at Memorial, you have to play well on the par 5s. These are normally avenues for making eagles and birdies, but in the last 23 years at Muirfield, only seven players have played the par 5s double digits under par. Cantlay was 12 under on the par 5s last year.
√ Weather again will be a problem, with poor weather expected Thursday and Friday, so the luck of the draw will play an important role and players will have to be patient.
One of these three should win
1. Bryson DeChambeau
√ Won at Muirfield in 2018, he knows how to throttle back on this course
√ Has been dominating for the whole year. Yes, he is 69 under since the break, but he also finished T-5 at Genesis, second at WGC-Mexico and fourth at Arnold Palmer, all before the break.√ Is sixth in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, fifth in Greens in Regulation, third in scrambling, 12th in Strokes Gained Putting and fifth in Par Breakers.
2. Dustin Johnson
√ His game finally jelled at the Travelers with his 19-under, one shot win.
√ Mixed results at Memorial, but he was fourth in 2011, third in 2016 and T-8 last year, so he knows how to play well at Muirfield Village.
√ His stats for the year are not good, but at Travelers he was first in Strokes Gained Total, sixth in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and fourth in Strokes Gained Putting.
3. Justin Thomas
√ His game is in a good place. He was T-10 at Colonial, T-8 at RBC Heritage and second at Workday, going 45 under in his last 14 rounds. If he can erase the one bad round per event, he will be a winner.
√ Was T-4 at the Memorial in 2017, T-8 in 2018 and missed the cut last year. You never know what he is going to do, and he might be worried after blowing a three-shot lead with three holes left last week.
√ Is second in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 15th in Greens in Regulation, 11th in scrambling and fourth in Par Breakers.
Coming in with momentum
4. Patrick Cantlay
√ Has shown he can be a top player on Tour, finishing T-7 last week at Workday and T-11 at Travelers.
√ Has played very well at Muirfield Village, finishing fourth at the Memorial in 2018 and winning last year, and he was T-7 last week. In those three starts he is 44 under over the 12 rounds.
√ His stats for the year have been reasonable, as he is fifth in Strokes Gained Total, seventh in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 46th in Strokes Gained Putting and third in Par 5 Scoring.
5. Collin Morikawa
√ The big question is if he is able to win again. He is young and confident, so we don't see any reason why not.
√ Has never played in the Memorial, but in his first event at Muirfield Village, he won with a score of 19 under.
√ Is eighth in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and third in Par Breakers.
6. Abraham Ancer
√ His game has been great since the break with a T-14 at Colonial, second at Heritage and T-11 at Travelers.
√ Has made two cuts in two starts at the Memorial, where he was T-57 in 2018 and T-65 last year.
√ Is 11th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, eighth in scrambling and 34th in putting inside 10 feet, all great stats for the Memorial.
7. Viktor Hovland
√ Has proven to be a workhorse, played all five post pandemic-events, and his game seems to be getting better. He was T-12 at Rocket Mortgage and third at Workday in his first visit to Muirfield Village.
√ Another of the young studs who turned professional last summer and already has a victory at Puerto Rico.
√ Is ninth in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green and 35th in Greens in Regulation. His biggest problem is scrambling and putting, but he has improved in his last couple of starts
Players who should do well
8. Brooks Koepka
√ His game seems to be getting better, even though he missed the cut at Workday. He played his final 10 holes last week in six under.
√ Has always struggled at Memorial, finishing T-52 in 2015 and T-31 in 2017.
√ Forget what his yearly stats are, as his game has been coming around.
9. Webb Simpson
√ Won at RBC Heritage and was T-8 at Travelers. The only question is how he can play at Muirfield Village.
√ Only has one top-10 at the Memorial, finishing T-7 in 2011. He doesn't play regularly in this event, but he might think his game suits the course.
√ Is 12th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, T-9 in Greens in Regulation and ninth in scrambling, indicating he could have a good week.
10. Daniel Berger
√ Won at Colonial and finished T-3 at RBC Heritage and returns after three weeks off.
√ Has not played well at Memorial, missing the cut in 2015 and finishing 67th in 2018. Seems to struggle on bent grass, with only seven top-10 finished in his 25 starts on courses with bent grass.
√ Is 17th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 10th in Strokes Gained Putting, second in Scrambling and ninth in Par Breakers. He has the game, but the course may not be right for him.
11. Tiger Woods
√ Hasn't made a official PGA Tour start since finishing 68th at the Genesis, but he seems healthy and happy
√ He played well in May at the Capitol One charity event and was hitting the ball great.
√ He is Tiger Woods, and healthy. which is big news. He has won the Memorial five times, and he was ninth last year. He should play well and get a top-20 but not a win.
Their games are in flux
12. Rory McIlroy
√ Game hasn't looked sharp as he finished T-32 at Charles Schwab, T-41 at RBC Heritage and T-11 at Travelers. If you ask him, that's OK, since he isn't a fan of Colonial or Harbour Town.
√ He is a fan of Muirfield Village, where he has four top-10 finishes in eight starts, with his best a T-4 in 2016 and fifth in 2011. He missed the cut last year and was T-8 in 2018.
√ Stats are great, ranking first in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 45th in Greens in Regulation, fourth in Scrambling and sixth in Par Breakers. He tends to struggle on the greens and in the final round, but the course should be perfect for him.
13. Kevin Streelman
√ After missing the cut at Colonial and Harbour Town, finished second at Travelers and T-7 at Workday.
√ Has played well at Muirfield Village, finishing fourth last year and T-8 in 2016. Between last year's Memorial and last week's at Workday Charity, Streelman is 24 under at Muirfield Village.
√ His stats don't stand out, but he is 35th in Strokes Gained Total, 24th in Driving Accuracy and T-34th in Greens in Regulation. If he can get his putting going, he could do very well this week.
14. Gary Woodland
√ He was great in finishing ninth at Charles Schwab and T-5 last week at Workday and only shot over par once in those events, so his game is close.
√ At the Memorial, he has a knack for hanging around for four rounds, and he was T-4 in 2016 and sixth in 2011.
√ Is 36th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, sixth in Greens in Regulation and 22nd in Strokes Gained Putting.
Don't see it happening
Jon Rahm
√ His game seems stuck in second gear, but he did have his best start since the break in finishing T-27 last week after a final-round 64.
√ Has only played in the Memorial once, missing the cut. His stats for the year aren't good, aside from his putting. He is 23rd in Strokes Gained Putting, but I would still wait him out.
