Sunday Service Play Thread 07/19/2020

BuzzKill · Jul 12, 2020

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BuzzKill · Jul 19, 2020

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bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Saratoga

July 18, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

Unless you own a horse running at Saratoga on Sunday, there’s to be no onsite viewing of races at the Spa, but from your easy chair and a big screen TV, you are right there.
The card (and late Pick 4) features the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes, and while a little short of Grade 2-type talent (at this point in their career), it includes a lot of up-and-coming 3-year-old fillies who will likely become regulars to the graded ranks after this one. The Lake Placid carries a $150,000 purse and will be contested over 1 1-8th miles.
Cat’s Pajamas, a Street Sense filly trained by Graham Motion, is unbeaten on turf after two dismal performances in dirt races. After eight months off, she came back on May 17 at Churchill and was a clear winner in her first turf race – a maiden special weights races – and she was able to keep that form at Belmont as she ran back for an allowance.
The Lake Placid is the ninth race on the 10-race card, and it’s the third leg of the late Pick 4, which runs from races 7-10. Here’s a look at a $75 suggested ticket, and a capable look at each of the races of the sequence:

Race 7 (4:40 p.m. ET, maiden special weights)
CALDEE is a Brad Cox trainee, and most of those are ready to go. This one is usable in a difficult-to-handicap field of first-timers. PEACHY QUEEN posted a bullet work and has other nice drills for her debut. DRESSY is another with good works and looks like she fits with these. LUCIFERS LAIR has everything you look for in a first-time starter and is poised to run well. OUR FLASH DRIVE put forth a good drill last out and from the outside can avoid a lot of the traffic.

Race 8 (5:14 p.m. ET, allowance)
New York-bred conditioned allowance runners hit the green and two of them looking particularly solid. MY SASSY SARAH broke her maiden and most recently was third in an allowance after trying the Grade 2 Miss Grillo. She has an edge in quality experience. LIGHT IN THE SKY lost a photo at Belmont in her only 2020 start and has impressive closing move on occasion. She will benefit from a good pace in this short race and will be the late runner to watch.

Race 9 (5:46 p.m. ET, G2 Lake Placid Stakes)

SPEAKTOMEOFSUMMER won a stakes race at Aqueduct and then moved up to the G3 Wonder Again last out. She didn’t make much of an impact but was an even fourth and has a better chance to run on late against these. STUNNING SKY was third two back at Gulfstream and then never really got involved while sixth in the G3 Regret. She’s came on some heavy heads and should move way up in this spot. CAT’S PAJAMA turned over a new leaf once she pointed toward the turf. This is a perfect opportunity for her first stakes attempt.

Race 10 (6:18 p.m. ET, claiming)
A nine-furlong claiming race is a crapshoot and usually requires quite a few options.
CONTROL GROUP has been hanging out at higher levels of competitions and drops to his lowest claiming price. Rodriguez claimed him two back, tried him on the turf and is now back to dirt. He might be able to right the ship. SHADOW RIDER is another (from the same barn) looking for a reversal in form and is taking a class drop to try it. He’s a late threat. MALIBU PRO was third against better and is usually comfortable when he gets on or close to the front end. MILLS comes in with the best form, having won three of his last four. The 10-year-old was claimed by the Barker stable two races back and responded with a win last time. His form and tactical speed make him a big threat to all the droppers. STREET TRUST came on well for third last four after trying much tougher. Late threat here.

Saratoga Late Pick 4:
7) #4 Caldee, #6 Peachy Queen, #8 Dressy, #9 Lucifers Lair, #10 Our Flash Drive.
8) #4 My Sassy Sarah, #5 Light in the Sky.
9) #1 Speaktomeofsummer, #6 Stunning Sky, #8 Cat’s Pajamas.
10) #2 Control Group, #5 Shadow Rider, #7 Malibu Pro, #8 Mills, #9 Street Trust.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 4-6-8-9-10 with 4-5 with 1-6-8 with 2-5-7-8-9 ($75)

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Mike McClure

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

The model began its season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven top-10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and Toyota 500 at Darlington. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 at Bristol.

The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami. At The Brickyard this month, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season, and then nailed four of the top-five drivers in the All-Star Race at Bristol.

Bets I'm making:

Joey Logano +1100

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Kevin Harvick (5-1)
2. Joey Logano (11-1)
3. Chase Elliott (10-1)
4. Ryan Blaney (11-1)
5. Kyle Busch (6-1)
6. Martin Truex Jr (8-1)
7. Denny Hamlin (11-2)
8. Brad Keselowski (11-1)
9. Kurt Busch (25-1)
10. Aric Almirola (25-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Erik Jones
12 Clint Bowyer
13 Jimmie Johnson
14 Alex Bowman
15 William Byron
16 Matt DiBenedetto
17 Cole Custer
18 Tyler Reddick
19 Matt Kenseth
20 Christopher Bell
21 Austin Dillon
22 Ryan Newman
23 Ricky Stenhouse Jr
24 Chris Buescher
25 Ty Dillon
26 John H. Nemechek
27 Bubba Wallace
28 Ryan Preece
29 Daniel Suarez
30 Corey Lajoie
31 Michael McDowell
32 Joey Gase
33 JJ Yeley
34 Timmy Hill
35 Brennan Poole
36 Gray Gaulding
37 Quin Houff
38 BJ McLeod
39 Reed Sorenson
40 Garrett Smithley

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 19, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

As usual the Sunday night card at Hawthorne Racecourse features a 0.50 Late Pick 4 with a $25,000 guaranteed pool. The sequence has a 15% takeout, the pools have been well above the guarantee, and it will be my focus.

The drivers with the hottest hands on Saturday were Casey Leonard and Todd Warren, both had three wins. Mike Brink, Steve Searle and Terry Leonard led the trainers, each had three trips to the winner's circle.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

1-Final Prize (2-1)-3-year-old had a big try from the 10-hole in last and off that effort he has been made the program chalk. Should be a player, this looks like an easy spot.
3-Captain Classic (6-1)-Hoosier invader has been facing better and has been stuck with the 9 or 10 post in all three starts. Should be in the hunt if he takes to the track.
6-Rock Jagger (12-1)-Was stuck with the 9-hole in last on a sloppy track and had a nice effort to finish 2nd. Gets a positive driver change in Todd Warren and he has been hot. Best to not overlook camera shy price shot.
8-Master Ken (3-1)-Team Leonard trainee comes off an easy win. This won't be as easy but can beat these if upswing continues.

Race 11

3-Johnnys Gal June (9-1)-Husted steers tonight and this filly took the long way around last week but didn't quit. That was her best effort in 7 starts. Could get sucked around from this post and might surprise at a nice price.
5-Sporty Miss Dune (6/5)-Steps-up after picking up a win off a nice trip. Doesn't offer any value at 6/5 and will include but look to beat.
8-Scorecard Nitelife (20-1)-1st time starter is Franco's choice over #3. Qualified on 7/4 and paced the back half in 57.1. Will likely race from the rear of the pack and could pick off a few down the lane. This is another who should be a price.
10-Yummy Candy (5-1)-Had a big effort with Bates in the bike and now Wilfong steers. Seemed to wake-up when dropped to this level and will use versus a suspect group.

Race 12

4-Shedaisy Ten (3-1)-Driver change to Todd Warren and drops to the lowest level in a while. 7-time winner in 2019 has won 3 of 10 in Stickney and has no excuse tonight.
6-The Second Star (8-1)-Has been stuck outside versus better and now drops in 3rd local start. Has been racing from the back and did go the 2nd half in .56. Fits better here and looking for an aggressive try.
7-My Kind Of Dance (7/2)-Only 3 for the last 46 but last start was better and now drops. This will be the 3rd start off a sick scratch and all systems could be "go" tonight.
10-Admit One (10-1)-Will take a swing with Oosting from the 10-hole instead of Franco from the rail. Oosting has driven this mare off cover before. My guess is the pace will be quick enough she can grind and roll by at a price.

Race 13

3-Brooke's Ocean (4/5)-Morning line choice is 3-3 and this crew isn't any better than those the filly beat on 7/4 in 152.4 on the engine from the 9-hole. Leonard steers and barring some bad luck it looks like another picture is set for tonight.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,3,6,8/3,5,8,10/4,5,7,10/3
Total Bet=$32

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #4
Picks Notes
#5 Releasethethunder Stalker did well to draw outside the chalk, got the comeback last time, and should be primed for a big effort now; look out.
#3 Candy Cornell Aforementioned chalk will be tough on the drop and may be in front, but s short price makes him an underlay; second-best.
#1 American Rule Longshot didn't fire from a bad draw last time but will be closer here, and will like the race flow; could blow it up underneath.
Race Summary You won't get rich on the 5 but $6 in a short field isn't bad either, especially from this post, so play him aggressively to win and place, and get some added value by keying him in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a lot of budget players will be singling the 3, even though the race flow may play against him early.

Saratoga - Race #7
Picks Notes
#1 Iaintfraidnoghost Jeremiah firster goes for a barn that crushed with debuting 2yos here last year, has a slew of works, and lures Jose Ortiz; thinking she's very live.
#9 Lucifers Lair Pletcher firster did well to draw outside for a potent debut barn, and this doesn't seem to be a loaded field, and she can probably run; plenty scary.
#6 Peachy Queen Gargan firster (11%) goes for a sharp barn and has some solid works showing, and note Franco is a wild 42% riding for this barn; do not ignore.
Race Summary Tab the tote here as we kick off the late Pk4, as live money is a good thing at the Spa, and if the money shows on the 1 then you can play her in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5, as well as the Pk4, since she goes for a barn that has some wild success up here with its 2yos last year, and this miss could continue the trend.

Saratoga - Race #8
Picks Notes
#2 Saratoga Love Speedster looked good wiring last time over MCL foes, and while she steps up and faces winners, she has a big tactical edge on her two main rivals; call right back.
#5 Light in the Sky Dangerous sort was a big 2nd off the break/trainer change last time and will fly home late, but she'll also be spotting a lot of ground to the pick; runs out of room late.
#4 My Sassy Sarah Stretch runner is another who fits nicely but has no early speed, so like the 5, she too might be left with too much to do in the lane; can't see her getting there in time.
Race Summary Pace makes the race and there's not a lot here that will keep the 2 from making the front, which will really help her chances, while hurting those of the 4 and 5, so play her in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win over two heavy favorites will add plenty of value to both sequences.

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #4
Picks Notes
#3 Short Summer Dress Ran the best one of her career last time out on the local turf, and she only tried the main track here in her debut, so there's a chance she can transfer the sharp form from last out to the new footing.
#2 Miss Behave Posted the maiden win over the local footing last year, and she's got the right kind of tactical pace to get another good trip near the top.
#7 Betwixting Really put things together nearing the end of last year, and her comeback race suggests she's probably got a useful season in front of her.
Race Summary Short Summer Dress comes off a solid effort, and while the main worry is that she isn't proven at passing horses, she might be sitting on a big enough effort to handle these at a price.

Woodbine - Race #6
Picks Notes
#9 Forester's Turn Should get a dreamy spying run behind a trio of potential pace players, and he's likely the right one with this group.
#3 Stormfuhr Longshot doesn't always fire a big one, but he has some past races that would be plenty good to land a spot in the gimmicks. Price chance in the mix.
#6 Buttermilk Pike Pace has to go, but he's in excellent form with a couple of easy scores under his belt in recent races. All or nothing here?
Race Summary Forester's Turn should trip out from the wide draw while spying some sharp pace players, and he'd be attractive at something a little bit shorter than his 7/2 ML offering.

Woodbine - Race #9
Picks Notes
#5 Speedy Moonlite Nothing cute here, this guy showed pace and dug in nicely before just giving way last out. Repeat of that would probably do.
#9 Keen Samurai Drew wide last time out and went sort of evenly in a quick race, and he should offer another nice price.
#10 Last American Exit Has shown some talent in two races, but he has so far lacked the final bid to get the job done. He's got some upside in this second start off the break.
Race Summary Speedy Moonlite was quick and game in the debut run, and while the price gets shorter this time around, he's the one to beat off the impressive debut try.

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 Dana Grace Just missed in a race that came off the turf and was on the board in her last two grass attempts; can adjust to the pace and lands in a good spot.
#1 Get Rewarded Was too late vs. much tougher last time, drops in class and can be a late threat.
#10 Calentita Goes for her third straight win and after an 0-for-4 start in California is perfect at Gulfstream; steps up in class but can make a run late.
Race Summary Dana Grace ran well on grass earlier in the season and is well-spotted under these conditions.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#8 Renaissance Frolic Was third in a strong race last time and has won four of his last seven; can handle these.
#1 On a Spree Won four of her last seven and checked in at second last out; pace factor.
#4 Rijeka Was a convincing winner two back and ran in several starts last year; can run on late.
Race Summary Renaissance Frolic came up short last time and has be on or close to the lead throughout; has the class to prevail.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#3 Glory of Florida Was claimed two back by Maker, tired in his 1st for the new connections going long, and turns back to 6.5 furlongs; has won three over the strip and can improve here.
#8 Joe Di Baggio Shoots for his third straight win, was claimed two back and won in a spot similar as this last time; expect a strong bid.
#6 Lemniscate Showed speed going longer and will be in the mix from the start; was good enough last year to run in the G2 Amsterdam in which he pressed the pace vs. quality runners.
Race Summary Glory of Florida should benefit from moving back to a sprint and has experience at this level; can improve in his second for Maker.

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

PITBULL BARKING SOCCER

Sun Jul 19, 2020
Norway - Eliteserien- Aalesunds vs. Stabaek OVER 2.5 -160 (12:00 PM)
USA - MLS - Chicago Fire vs. San Jose Earthquakes OVER 2.5 -171 (8:00 PM)
Iceland - Premier League- Vikingur Reykjavik vs. IA Akranes OVER 2.5 -183 (3:15 PM)
Greece - Super League- PAOK vs. Aris Thessaloniki UNDER 3.5 -155 (1:00 PM)

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grand Prairie
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 1 - Claiming - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $4050 Class Rating: 67

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 LUCKY ROYAL RABBIT 3/1

# 5 LINDA HUNNY (T) 9/2

# 2 LOUISIANA PURCHASE (T) 6/1

LUCKY ROYAL RABBIT looks to be a very strong contender. This horse is highly ranked this field in earnings per start at the distance/surface. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group recently. With a sound 73 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. LINDA HUNNY (T) - Solid profits have been scored by bettors using this jock and conditioner tandem lately. LOUISIANA PURCHASE (T) - Has formidable front-end speed and will probably fare strongly versus this group of horses. Will make a strong showing versus this lot.

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Mountaineer Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:06pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $15,500 Class Rating: 51

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#2 NYMPHESA (GER) (ML=2/1)
#1 DOUBT (ML=4/1)

NYMPHESA (GER) - Rounding her way back into form. Each of her finish positions is getting better in her recent starts. This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +179. DOUBT - I like that this first-timer has been working over the Mountaineer Park oval and makes her debut here today. First timer here. An overlooked stat is the breeding, especially the dam. Dam's foals have won 50 percent of the time as first-timers.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 WATERLOO SUNSET (ML=9/5), #4 POSH TOTTY (ML=8/1),

WATERLOO SUNSET - I find it hard to bet on this vulnerable equine this time out. Make her show you something in a sprint race before you play her in a race of 5 furlongs. Awfully hard to bet on this mount when she hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness recently. POSH TOTTY - Finished sixth on July 7th after the long vacation. Doubtful if there will be improvement in this contest.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - NYMPHESA (GER) - Highest average class number puts this filly in a prime position to run well against these horses.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #2 NYMPHESA (GER) to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/5 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Box [1,2]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Mile
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12600 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500 WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING $15,625 ALBERTA BREDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,625.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 1 BANDED PEAK 8/1

# 5 DEUCES ARE WILD 2/5

# 3 LONE PIONEER 15/1

I've got to go with BANDED PEAK particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. Has formidable speed figs and has to be considered for a bet for this race. With Galviz in the saddle guiding him, this gelding should be able to break out quickly for this event. Has to be carefully examined versus this field displaying strong figures recently and an average Equibase speed fig of 72 under similar conditions. DEUCES ARE WILD - Has run well when running a dirt sprint race. Could best this group of animals based on the speed rating - 81 - of his last outing. LONE PIONEER - Rycroft is very serious with this one, wheeling him back in next to no time. This gelding looks like a playable longshot.

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga
PURCHASE

07/19/20, SAR, Race 4, 2.54 ET
07/19/20,SAR,4,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 CLAIMING. Purse $54,000. (UP TO $9,396 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race In 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.0000 4 Queen's Mason 10-1 Ortiz J L Levine Bruce N. FW 48.00 1.85/$1
098.9763 5 Releasethethunder 2-1 Rosario J Clement Christophe S 35.29 1.29/$1
098.9698 3 Candy Cornell 1-1 Ortiz. Jr. I Diodoro Robertino JEC 35.29 1.29/$1
096.4452 1 American Rule 30-1 Cardenas L Tournas Peter 36.36 1.68/$1
096.3578 6 Twelfth Labour 5/2 Cohen D Diodoro Robertino 36.36 1.68/$1
096.2666 2 Ryan's Cat 20-1 Carmouche K Englehart Chris J. L 36.36 1.68/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.55, ROI 1.00/$1

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts
PURCHASE

Bar

Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,500 Class Rating: 74

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 DARK ALE (ML=3/1)

DARK ALE - Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should be aided by today's shorter distance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DIXIE WIL (ML=7/5), #4 HEAD KITTEN (ML=4/1), #5 SOUPER DEPUTY (ML=6/1),

DIXIE WIL - I usually try to beat these types of morning-line choices off the extended layoff. HEAD KITTEN - This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's race. SOUPER DEPUTY - This steed will probably be at the back of the pack as this group crosses the finish line.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - DARK ALE - Looks like Berringer has been trying to find the right level for this horse. Took a big drop in class in last race, but returns to a similar level in this affair. What that tells me is he may win today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Putting our cash on #3 DARK ALE to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though

EXACTA WAGERS:
Skip

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park
PURCHASE

07/19/20, MTH, Race 14, 7.04 ET
07/19/20,MTH,14,5 1/2F [Turf] 1:01:01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $23,000. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000, For Each $2,500 To $25,000 1 lb. (Rail at 12 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.0000 2 Hyperloop 5-1 Gallardo A A Dini Michael JS 60.87 1.68/$1
098.8131 11 Trapped N My Mind 9/2 Peterson F Cruz Jesus FC 63.16 1.87/$1
097.4158 3 Passionfortreasure 9/2 Ferrer J C McCarthy Brenda 38.89 1.21/$1
095.5431 5 Beans N Rice 10-1 Diaz. Jr. H R Barrera. III Oscar S. TW 54.84 1.50/$1
095.2517 1 Sudden Brilliance 7/2 McCarthy T Cruz Jesus EL 54.84 1.50/$1
095.2116 6 Aiken to Belong 12-1 Peterson F Berrios Manuel 57.14 1.66/$1
094.7178 7 Giggle Factory 4-1 Garcia W A Albertrani Thomas 54.84 1.50/$1
094.1466 9 Charlettee 20-1 Mejia T B Harris Holly L. 57.14 1.66/$1
094.0211 10 Luscious Linda 12-1 Torres J Einhorn Skip 57.14 1.66/$1
093.8363 4 Cash Code 6-1 Carrasco V R Trombetta Michael J. 54.84 1.50/$1
093.1657 8 Hey Leocadia(b-) 6-1 Hernandez C J Kendall. Jr. Dennis S. 54.84 1.50/$1
* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 37.14, ROI 0.93/$1
If Race Is Off Turf
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.
Rating P# Horse Name M/L Jockey Trainer Flags WPC ROI *
100.0000 11 Trapped N My Mind 9/2 Peterson F Cruz Jesus FEC 47.06 1.72/$1
099.0921 1 Sudden Brilliance 7/2 McCarthy T Cruz Jesus L 47.06 1.72/$1
097.8080 5 Beans N Rice 10-1 Diaz. Jr. H R Barrera. III Oscar S. W 47.06 1.72/$1
097.7861 3 Passionfortreasure 9/2 Ferrer J C McCarthy Brenda S 47.06 1.72/$1
097.1493 7 Giggle Factory 4-1 Garcia W A Albertrani Thomas 40.48 1.18/$1
096.2206 6 Aiken to Belong 12-1 Peterson F Berrios Manuel 47.06 1.72/$1
095.5860 2 Hyperloop 5-1 Gallardo A A Dini Michael JT 47.06 1.72/$1
094.7142 10 Luscious Linda 12-1 Torres J Einhorn Skip 55.56 1.71/$1
094.5560 4 Cash Code 6-1 Carrasco V R Trombetta Michael J. 47.06 1.72/$1
094.3251 9 Charlettee 20-1 Mejia T B Harris Holly L. 55.56 1.71/$1
093.9913 8 Hey Leocadia(b-) 6-1 Hernandez C J Kendall. Jr. Dennis S. 47.06 1.72/$1
* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.00, ROI 0.92/$1

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Gjelstad and Norheim

Sunday, July 19

Bournemouth v. Southampton (9 a.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +260

Total goals: Over 2.5

Likely score: Bournemouth 2, Southampton 2

Tottenham v. Leicester City (11 a.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +240

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Tottenham 1, Leicester City 1

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

Micah Roberts

NASCAR

Here is Roberts' analysis:

The 18th race of the NASCAR Cup Series season takes us to Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday for the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500, which will be the seventh race of the season on a 1½-mile layout. So far, between the six races run on 1½-mile tracks, there have been six winners. It's also the 13th race of the season using a race package featuring engines that produce 550 horsepower, which Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin have used to win seven of the first 12 races. Both of those drivers should be respected this week, but I'm going way off the usual grid and looking to cash the most on a driver at 25-1 odds.

Here's what I'm looking at this week:

1) #10 Aric Almirola (25-1) -- He's my top cash play this week even though all of his wins have come on Superspeedways at Daytona and Talladega. He's got to first beat his teammate, Kevin Harvick, which he failed to do last fall when he led 62 laps and won the second stage. Stewart-Haas Racing cars finished 1-2-3 with Almirola finishing second. But this play is more about a team being on a roll. Last week at Kentucky Almirola led a race-high 128 laps but finished eighth after being bogged down by dirty air in the second half of the race. That race ended a streak of five consecutive top-finishes. SHR equipment and a hot team are a great combination, and I'm going big on it. Who's coming with me?

2) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (8-1) -- He has been the King of half-mile tracks over the last four seasons, but he doesn't have a win so far in the first six races on them and none in the 12 races using the 550-horsepower package. He's never won at Texas, but I'm encouraged by top-fives in two of his last three on 1½-mile tracks. He looked to have the best car late at Kentucky (where he was the runner-up) but couldn't control the restart, allowing Cole Custer to win.

3) #4 Kevin Harvick (13-5) -- He went his first 29 races at Texas without a victory, but in the last five, he's won three times, which coincides with the track's new surface. He's got top-10 finishes in his last 11 races at Texas since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014. All four of his wins this season have come with this week's race package. I'll use him more as an insurance policy in my betting strategy where I'll look to recoup half of my bankroll if he wins. I won't be rooting for him, but I respect what his team keeps giving him.

4) #11 Denny Hamlin (11-2) -- He's a three-time Texas winner, the last coming last spring. He's got three of the 12 wins this season using this week's race package, as well as a runner-up at Charlotte and Pocono, a fifth-place at Atlanta and the first Darlington race, and a sixth at Fontana. He also was leading at The Brickyard with six laps to go until a tire blew. He saves his tires better than anyone, and he's got the best set-up among Joe Gibbs cars. He has four wins on the season, and Kyle Busch has zero. Hamlin has to be in any betting mix this week.

5) #12 Ryan Blaney (11-1) -- He's been the steady driver at Team Penske, and, since joining the team, he's got both of his career top-fives at Texas. Even with lesser equipment in 2017 driving the No. 21, he won the first two stages and settled for 12th after leading a race-high 148 laps. He also won a 2018 Xfinity Series race at Texas, but the reason to bet him to win this week is five straight top-six finishes on 1½-mile tracks.

6) #9 Chase Elliott (10-1) -- He was 13th or worse between both Cup races at Texas last season, leading 35 laps in the spring. But before that, he was 11th or better in all six of his starts there. He comes off a huge All-Star Race win using the 750-horsepower package, but has been great with the 550-horsepower package as well, with his only points-paying win (Charlotte) and runner-up (Homestead).

7) #18 Kyle Busch (6-1) -- He's a three-time Texas winner in the Cup Series, the last coming in 2018, and he's got 13 other wins between the Xfinity and Truck Series. But he has zero Cup wins this season. I feel he's going to win soon, but he can no longer be among the top two or three drivers to invest in anymore. I'm thinking of dumping him altogether in my weekly betting portfolio until he wins a race.

8) #1 Kurt Busch (25-1) -- His lone Cup win at Texas came in 2009, but he's on a roll, finishing ninth or better in his last five starts there. He also has been seventh or better in four of the six races on 1½-mile tracks this season. I'll be on him in driver matchups.

9) #2 Brad Keselowski (11-1) -- He's a two-time Texas winner in the Xfinity Series but doesn't have any in the Cup Series. Since his last Texas top-five in the Cup Series in 2017, he's had four finishes outside the top-10, including three of them finishing 33rd or worse. He has two wins this season, one of them being the Coca-Cola 600, which was on sister-track Charlotte.

10) #20 Erik Jones (40-1) -- This guy loves Texas, and I'm on him to win at such high odds. He's finished 10th or better in his last five Texas Cup starts, which includes three straight fourth-place finishes. He's a three-time Texas winner in the Xfinity Series, doing so against a bunch of Cup drivers like Kyle Busch. He also won a 2015 Truck Series race there.

11) #88 Alex Bowman (30-1) -- Bowman has me perplexed. It was kind of the same thing after a runner-up at the 1½-mile track at Kansas and then winning on the 1½-mile track at Chicagoland. He'd finish fifth at Texas as his only top-five on a 1½-miler after winning. In 2020, he won at Fontana, was runner-up at Darlington and then had no top-fives in any other race using the same race package. As his odds rise, I keep throwing him in my betting mix believing he'll roll again, and I keep losing with him.

12) #22 Joey Logano (11-1) -- His lone Texas win came in 2014, but it's been one of his most consistent tracks with finishes of seventh or better in his last eight starts. He was fourth last fall during the playoffs. The problem with him this week is that this race package has been horrible for him since the restart to the season; he has no top-fives in 11 starts using it since winning at Las Vegas.

13) #41 Cole Custer (100-1) -- He won at Texas in a 2018 Xfinity Series Race and makes his Cup debut there on Sunday. The strength of Stewart-Haas Racing's set-up showed last week when Custer won at Kentucky, at 300-1 odds. The race before that using the same package he finished fifth at Indy. The win wasn't a fluke.

14) #14 Clint Bowyer (60-1) -- He led laps in both Texas races last season, tying a career-best runner-up in the spring, and then ran 11th in the fall. He doesn't have any top-fives using this week's race package but is still attractive because he's got SHR equipment.

15) #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (125-1) -- He doesn't have any top-10s in 14 Cup starts at Texas, but he does have a 2012 Xfinity Series win there. He's got two top-fives between the six races on 1½-mile tracks.

16) #48 Jimmie Johnson (25-1) -- He's the King of Texas with seven wins, 16 top-fives and 1,152 laps led in 33 Cup starts. No one in history has done better than JJ. But he doesn't have any top-fives in his last 10 races using this week's race package.

17) #8 Tyler Reddick (75-1) -- His last three races using this week's race package have produced top-10 finishes with a best of fourth-place at Kentucky last week. He's on the upswing, and I'm sure with a rookie winning at Kentucky he'll be a popular bet because of the recent top-10s.

18) #42 Matt Kenseth (100-1) -- He is one of two active drivers to average better than a 10th-place average finish at Texas. The veteran has 14 top-fives in 30 Cup starts, which includes two wins. He showed some speed at Indy using this week's race package, finishing second.

19) #3 Austin Dillon (100-1) -- He has a 20th-place average finish in 14 Cup starts in Texas with his only top-10 coming in 2018. But he's not a bad addition to your fantasy lineup or betting matchups this week because he's finished 14th or better in all six races on 1½-mile tracks.

20) #21 Matt DiBenedetto (30-1) -- He's had a 28th-place average finish in nine Cup starts at Texas while driving underfunded cars. But he's been close to winning twice with this week's race package that produced a second at Las Vegas and a third last week at Kentucky. But 30-1 odds seem like an overreach from the Bookmaker, knowing that no one is betting him at 30-1 or 50-1.

bmd1803 · Jul 19, 2020

FAIR MEADOWS

RACE #1 FAIR MEADOWS $9,900 Maiden Claiming
4 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 7:00 PM ET

#5 KIPPER

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8/5 5 Kipper F Wethey Jr.
PLACE 4-1 6 A Flicker Ofsilver L H Cormier
SHOW 2-1 3 Read the River J A Medina
WILD CARD 3-1 1 Suprematif J A Leon

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 2 Visions of Indians J R Eads
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 4 Dreams Affirmed O Sanchez

* EXACTA: 5-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-1 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 1/3/6 BOX

RACE #2 FAIR MEADOWS $4,950 Maiden Claiming
6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 7:25 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9/5 2 Natalies Boy J R Eads
PLACE 4-1 6 Seven Visions E McNeil
SHOW 2-1 3 Crowned Leader J A Medina
WILD CARD 3-1 4 Paraiso Legacy J A Leon

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 1 Red Rooster B L Goff Jr.
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 5 Bud Minister G Herrera

* EXACTA: 2-6 BOX, 6-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/6 BOX, 3/4/6 BOX

RACE #3 FAIR MEADOWS $5,500 Claiming
4 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 7:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8/5 5 Test the Water T Cunningham
PLACE 9/5 7 Oh So Playful O Sanchez
SHOW 5-1 1 Drexel G Herrera
WILD CARD 8-1 4 Shackmandu J A Leon

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 6 Shawn Again J A Medina
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 2 Un Nameable Street J R Eads

* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/5/7 BOX, 1/4/7 BOX

RACE #4 FAIR MEADOWS $4,950 Claiming
6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 8:15 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5-1 2 Intimidating F Wethey Jr.
PLACE 12-1 7 Elusive Blueboy J A Medina
SHOW 3-1 1 Totally Tiger J A Leon
WILD CARD 7/2 10 Blazingulch O Sanchez

ALTERNATE 1 6-1 8 Its a Sweet One G Herrera
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 3 Toast Time G Steinberg

* EXACTA: 2-7 BOX, 7-1 BOX, 1-10 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/7 BOX, 1/7/10 BOX

RACE #5 FAIR MEADOWS $9,900 Maiden Claiming
4 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 8:40 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 1-1 5 Always a Tiz G Steinberg
PLACE 3-1 7 Sister Shirley F Wethey Jr.
SHOW 4-1 3 My Password G Herrera
WILD CARD 6-1 4 Goddess of Wonder J A Leon

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 6 Gospel Josy Jan T Cunningham
ALTERNATE 2 20-1 1 Smokin Sheets B C Landeros

* EXACTA: 5-7 BOX, 7-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/7 BOX, 3/4/7 BOX

RACE #6 FAIR MEADOWS $3,500 Maiden Claiming
300 Yards ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 9:05 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 1-1 3 Tlc Wagon D A Torres
PLACE 8-1 1 Sr Loaded Pistol E G Escobedo
SHOW 6/5 5 Coronado de Boss J Klaiber
WILD CARD 8-1 2 Df Fabulous Power B L Goff Jr.

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 4 Lota Feared Memories A R Samaniego

* EXACTA: 3-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX, 5-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/5 BOX, 1/2/5 BOX

RACE #7 FAIR MEADOWS $3,800 Claiming
300 Yards ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 9:30 PM ET

#6 PC TOMAHAWK ROCKET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 6 Pc Tomahawk Rocket Z Ziegler
PLACE 5/2 4 Wicked App Memories B C Landeros
SHOW 3-1 5 Sm Quick N Fast D A Torres
WILD CARD 7/2 3 Phq Kickn Cody E G Escobedo

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 1 Judys Last Silk K J Camacho
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 2 Bold Moon Carver A R Samaniego

* EXACTA: 6-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/5/6 BOX, 3/4/5 BOX

RACE #8 FAIR MEADOWS $5,200 Allowance
300 Yards ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 9:55 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 3 Captain Blood A R Samaniego
PLACE 3-1 4 Baby Doll Wire Z Ziegler
SHOW 8/5 5 Jf Princess Storm D A Torres
WILD CARD 8-1 6 Mia Cash Money J Klaiber

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 2 Sotogrande R Raudales
ALTERNATE 2 15-1 1 Giorgis Prize B L Goff Jr.

* EXACTA: 3-4 BOX, 4-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/4/5 BOX, 4/5/6 BOX

RACE #9 FAIR MEADOWS $6,700 Claiming
250 Yards ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 10:20 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 8/5 3 Mjsguerita A R Samaniego
PLACE 3-1 2 First Tee for Two R Raudales
SHOW 5-1 1 Ms Jetta B C Wainscott
WILD CARD 2-1 4 Ivoreemoon One E G Escobedo

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 5 Loftin B L Goff Jr.

* EXACTA: 3-2 BOX, 2-1 BOX, 1-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/3 BOX, 1/2/4 BOX

RACE #10 FAIR MEADOWS $7,600 Claiming
250 Yards ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 10:45 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6/5 5 Cleopatra E G Escobedo
PLACE 7/2 2 Winnlastcapo A R Samaniego
SHOW 3-1 3 My Mommas Corona D A Torres
WILD CARD 4-1 4 Bills Handsome Hawk J Klaiber

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 1 Volcoms Quick B L Goff Jr.

* EXACTA: 5-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-4 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/4 BOX

RACE #11 FAIR MEADOWS $12,300 Maiden
350 Yards ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 11:10 PM ET

#4 DYAUB

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 1-1 4 Dyaub J Klaiber
PLACE 5/2 2 Jess Molly Brown D A Torres
SHOW 2-1 3 American Red Sunrise E G Escobedo
WILD CARD 15-1 5 Laico Fool B Ernst

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 1 Pals a Flyen J Hernandez-Gallardo

* EXACTA: 4-2 BOX, 2-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/4 BOX, 2/3/5 BOX

RACE #12 FAIR MEADOWS $12,000 Allowance
300 Yards ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 11:35 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5/2 7 Nice Socks Ms Hocks R Raudales
PLACE 7/2 3 Carson City Train D A Torres
SHOW 4-1 6 Chicks With Coronas C Wainscott
WILD CARD 20-1 8 Lulu James E G Escobedo

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 4 Scaredy Pants A R Samaniego
ALTERNATE 2 6-1 5 Valiant Memorie J Klaiber

* EXACTA: 7-3 BOX, 3-6 BOX, 6-8 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/6/7 BOX, 3/6/8 BOX

Sunday Service Play Thread 07/19/2020

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Let's go Brandon!

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