Tuesday Service Play Thread 07/21/2020

BuzzKill · Jul 19, 2020

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BuzzKill · Jul 21, 2020

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bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Al Cimaglia: Scioto Downs Pick 5 Analysis

July 21, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia

Scioto Downs has 15-races set to go with the 0.50 Pick 5 beginning in Race 5. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool with a 14% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5

1-R J P (9/5)-Hasn't raced since 7/4 and this will be the 1st start at ScD for 6-year-old Burke trainee. This is a significant price drop and the lowest level in quite a while. Offers no value but needs to be used.
4-Major Deception (3-1)-Beaten chalk was bet down to 9/5 and had no chance in last. Draws well and the Morgan barn has been rolling. Doesn't have much gate speed and is trip dependent, but can take a picture if Miller finds live cover.

Race 6

2-Badger Quinn (9/2)-Got on the engine from the 7-hole and didn't look back versus this kind on 7/9. Gets a new pilot and could be posing again if Badger is as good as in last.
8-Silver Spir (5/2)-Program chalk has won 7 of 15 at ScD. 11-year-old has won 2 straight and one was from the 8-hole. Best to not overlook, veteran likes to win.

Race 7

5-Town Icon (4-1)-Form has been dull but did leave aggressively in last and now get a ++ driver change. Page could leave and race close to the lead. Best to respect, could be sitting on a big try.
7-Ilikethemtrashy (9/2)-Drops, fits with this bunch and Noble sticks. Barn is ice cold but could leave and get the pocket ride behind #5 and trip out.
10-Air Force Hanover (9/5)-Drops to a spot to shine, went off as 3/2 chalk versus NW of $5k last 4 and came 2nd. The best horse has the worse post but if #1 leaves in 2nd local start, that might help Smith work out a winning trip.

Race 8

3-Can't Break Rosie (7-1)-Rosie is camera shy but is not alone and is worth using versus a suspect group. Page should keep her engaged from this post.
4-Itza Prince (4-1)-Tried hard versus better in last and now could leave from this post and get the top. There isn't much gate speed in the race and Smith could take control.
7-Attache (4-1)-3-year-old is 0-6 at ScD but has faced some tough company. Comes off a nice try versus better and if pace is honest Miller should have in striking range at the top of the lane.

Race 9

1-Upfront Supersonic (12-1)-Only 1-23 at ScD but that win came at this same class on 6/19 from the rail. Fits here and Sutton can be aggressive. Will take a swing versus a group without much form.
4-Christina One (7/2)-Steps-up after a confident win versus easier. Smith's choice over the 1, 2 and 10 should be put in play and could take another picture with a top a try.

0.50 Pick 4

1,4/2,8/5,7,10/3,4,7/1,4
Total Bet=$36

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Canterbury Park - Race #5
Picks Notes
#1 Thealligatorhunter Firster comes with bullets in the holster and another very sharp drill, lures local ace Quinonez, and goes for a 19% Padilla barn; looks very live.
#7 Kid's Inheritance Dangerous sort lures Eikleberry, so right away you know there's intent here, Berndt is 19% with firsters, and this attack post is perfect; very scary.
#2 Passthecat ML favorite was a distant 2nd on debut, and that gives him a big experience edge, though the top-2 appear to have some talent; needs to improve.
Race Summary Tab the tote on the 1, as we kick off the 10% takeout Pk5, and you want to see him live and taking money, and if that's the case you can play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the sequence, as they're only going 5Fs here, and if he breaks running, he may not come back.

Canterbury Park - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Dreaming Biz Price player returns from 11 months off, made her turf and two-turn debut, and still got up in time, and while facing winners is never easy, there's a ton of upside here; call right back.
#2 Lila's Lucky Lady Expected favorite closed with a rush to beat open 30k's last time, drew perfectly here, and meets a meek group of Mn breds, though she figures to be a bit overbet too; second-best.
#8 Two Be Royal Uninspiring ML favorite likely needed her last off the long break, so to be a closing 3rd bodes well here, but she drew poorly, and has no edge on paper either; using her underneath only.
Race Summary That 6-1 ML would be plenty of risk-reward to see if she can take the next step up the class ladder, and with plenty of room for improvement, she can be played in all the slots, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.

Canterbury Park - Race #8
Picks Notes
#5 Mischievious Mo Stiff class dropper was facing eons better in the MSW ranks at FG when last seen, and off those modest runs this drop makes sense, for a Berndt barn that is aces around here; look out.
#1 Cintarosa Ranch Intriguing sort got to the turf last time and really woke up when 3rd, and while the pick will be tough, this dude drew well and should only improve off that run; theft is on the agenda.
#7 Semi Charmed Day Class dropper has some middling form yet will be bet for Robertson, even though he seems to be going the wrong direction, and there's no guarantee the blinks right the ship; tread lightly.
Race Summary You certainly won't get rich on the 5 but he just likes a better horse than this group, especially since he's the class off the FG races, so play him aggressive to win and place, while getting some added value by singling him in the 10% takeout Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, as that will allow for more coverage in the deeper surrounding legs, as he looks like he's got this field over a barrel.

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1
Picks Notes
#6 Bret's at Caddies Hate to take too short a number here, but his guy should be tough here with what looks like a pace edge in a spot without much other early speed. He'll be in the mix from the start.
#8 Pence Not sure he's going to get the right kind of setup here. He needs a bit of pace to chase at this abbreviated trip, and he was pretty easily handled by the top choice a couple times last year.
#10 Tiz Wicked Tactical type can be involved out of the gate, and if the top choice can't see out the trip, he'd probably be the one to inherit the lead as that guy gives way.
Race Summary Looks like a single or spread kind of race. Bret's at Caddies likely won't be a fair price, he owns a long string of races that would probably handle this bunch. and he can move forward off the fading route try in the comeback.

Mountaineer - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 Creative Story Taking a price swing here on a guy who owns a couple of pretty decent back turf tries. Some of those Penn race from last year stack up nicely, and the price should be solid off the dull run last out.
#6 Atlantic Sun Reliable type is the one to beat at what is likely a short number, but he has some versatility that benefit him in this spot. Thinking he can sit a touch closer today.
#4 Discovered Occasionally shows some decent pace, and that might be his best way to land a spot underneath. He was in with better last out at CD, so he's got at least a touch of upside here at a square price.
Race Summary Creative Story should be a longshot tonight, but he owns a couple of pretty solid back turf races. Even if he doesn't offer all of his 20/1, something in the double digits is attractive to hope he can run back to one of those.

Mountaineer - Race #3
Picks Notes
#6 Smart and Broke Seems like a lot of the local marathon races are either won by pressing types who assume command early and draw off, or grinding finishers who simply don't stop. This guy is the latter and should appreciate the longer trip. Interesting enough.
#8 Delp Respect the team, but not super excited about taking this guy on his way out of the Amoss barn while in very flat form. He has a sort of miler pedigree, so he's a touch suspect stretching out, too.
#9 Mutashabeh Should really have the front end all to himself from the wide draw, but he doesn't have a ton of late kick, so there's a real chance that he's vulnerable late.
Race Summary Smart and Broke has a grinding finishing ability that might play well in a race where Mutashabeh should be the one to catch, but 'Broke might be the one plugging along best of all late in this 11f trip.

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #13
Picks Notes
#2 MALLOY Battled gamely outside of the favorite, figures close again.
#9 COPPERHEADROAD In good form cycle, coming off win, bad starting spot.
#3 DON’T SASS ME Late foot in latest, better post, Palone’s choice on a double call.
Race Summary Malloy dueled alongside the favorite and stayed on well to finish third at this level. He draws favorably and gets the nod to trigger 2-3 and 2-9 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #2
Picks Notes
#6 COMBS HANOVER Worked hard to win after three weeks away, take right back.
#5 THREEFIFTYTWO Responded to front-end tactics, earned top speed figure to go 5-for-11.
#3 HAYEK Good first gear, seeks three in a row for high-percentage tandem.
Race Summary Combs Hanover was wide early, made two moves and caught the pace-controlling favorite. He’s ready for a step up in class. Play 6-3 and 6-5 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4
Picks Notes
#6 BIG MYRTLE Burned money again, tries to upstage in-the-money finishes.
#4 NECTAR Held the 1-to-5 favorite at bay to win at Rideau.
#3 UPTOWN CALLIE Rallied for third at Yonkers, missed a week sick.
Race Summary Big Myrtle took late money but failed as the favorite for the third start in a row. She ran well, however, meeting a challenge while on the lead, but couldn’t hold off the trip-sitting winner. Play a 3-4-6 exacta box.

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #2
Picks Notes
#5 Stop Hammertime His last two-turn dirt race produced a second-place finish; prefers being up close and will likely do that today.
#4 Rainy Day Dreamin Toggles back and forth between claiming and allowance races and has the speed press throughout this route; could be overlooked.
#7 Max Express Closed to third in a quick sprint and makes his first dirt stretch-out of the year; capable and will be well backed.
Race Summary Stop Hammertime seems to enjoy two turns and can be a factor from flagfall to finish; rates an edge at the distance.

Indiana Grand - Race #6
Picks Notes
#1 Marv's Magic Closed stoutly in the quarter for a third-place finish last out; decent router is well placed.
#5 You Gotta Wanna Has taken on graded stakes coming going long and didn't fire in his first of the year, which came at Churchill; adds blinkers and has a ton of class.
#2 Tez Missed by a head last time and tries a longer distance; seems to get better the farther he runs.
Race Summary Marv's Magic finished full of run and can be a factor going today's distance of 1 3-8 miles; capable closer fits with these.

Indiana Grand - Race #9
Picks Notes
#9 Jess Go Blue Made a super run for 2nd after a bad start in her career debut on trial day and a good start day gives her a chance to break to maiden in this $186 grander.
#10 Stone Lake Clearly a big player as he's won both of his starts with something to spare; they'll have to step up their game to beat him.
#3 Zz Stones Ablazing Was up in time for a trial win and continued improvement will make him a solid factor; should be a good price.
Race Summary Jess Go Blue was well meant in the trial but wasn't sharp at the break and made a good run to quality; troublesome with a smooth trip today.

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Thistledown

Race 1:#10 Centsofstyle (3/1)
Race 2:#2 Designate (5/2)
Race 3:#7 Smokin Hot Energy (6/1)
Race 4:#5 Diamonds N Dew (5/2)
Race 5:#3 Roses for Sharon (5/2)
Race 6:#1 Miss Bliss (5/2)
Race 7:#5 Zulu Legend (9/2)
Race 8:#2 Leopoldo (5/2)

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Belterra

1 2-1 3 Flat Out Beauty
2 6-1 6 Absolute Love
3 9/5 1A Friendly Merger
4 2-1 4 Diamond Dust
5 5/2 8 Rollin My Own
6 4-1 1 Her Gold Mine
7 3-1 5 Our Flag
8 5/2 9 Competitive Queen

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Canterbury

1 5/2 6 Florida Two Step
2 9/5 2 Cynical Girl
3 2-1 3 Madisonian
4 5/2 8 Champagne Affair
5 3-1 2 Passthecat
6 6-1 1 Dreaming Biz
7 5-1 3 Golden Gopher
8 5/2 5 Mischievous Mo
9 5/2 7 Mas Takela

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Fair Meadows

1 2-1 3 Will I Ketchum
2 8/5 2 Nsm Ice Angel
3 2-1 2 Flattering Pose
4 5/2 4 Rare Poppy
5 8/5 6 My Claw
6 9/5 2 Imma Wild Bling
7 2-1 7 Uncail
8 9/5 8 Arkansas Invasion
9 8/5 1 Gospel Lucille
10 2-1 4 Lucky Liza Ann
11 2-1 5 Shannon C
12 7/2 4 Proper Decorum

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Fairmount

1 8/5 5 Cut to Order
2 4-1 6 Barbiello
3 2-1 7 My Fouroone Kplan
4 6/5 6 Triple Scout
5 3-1 9 Simply Fast
6 6/5 1 Khozans Valentine
7 3-1 7 Great Gret

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Fort Erie

1 5/2 2 Cape Desiderato
2 2-1 3 Classy Scarlett
3 3-1 2 Stormy Suzie
4 3-1 1 Red Frog
5 5/2 2 Express Banking
6 7/5 5 Dr Blarney
7 6-1 7 Orphan Queen

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Indiana Grand

1 2-1 9 Azzaro Steel
2 4/5 7 Max Express
3 9/2 2 Lettered Olive
4 8-1 5 Sparkling Justice
5 2-1 2 Cook Memories
6 5/2 2 Tez
7 10-1 1 Fire Marshall Bill
8 5-1 8 All Go
9 9/5 10 Stone Lake
10 9/2 9 Tomboy B

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

LA Downs

1 9/2 5 Squox
2 5/2 2 Paddy O
3 6/5 1 Senor Blair
4 3/2 2 Im Not Shy
5 4-1 8 Doolin
6 2-1 7 Much Class
7 7/2 10 Big Gig

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Lone Star

1 5/2 8 Veterans Holiday
2 6/5 4 Fika
3 6/5 3 T Cs Image
4 8/5 8 True Castle
5 6-1 2 Cypress Point
6 3-1 11 Sweet Linda
7 3-1 5 Beau Gosse
8 5/2 5 Top Hat Tantrum
9 3-1 11 Alberta Sun

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

MOUNTAINEER

RACE #1 MOUNTAINEER $4,000 Claiming
4 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 7:00 PM ET

#6 BRETS AT CADDIES

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 6 Brets At Caddies C Oliveros
PLACE 7/2 10 Tiz Wicked A Gonzalez
SHOW 9/2 8 Pence A Williams
WILD CARD 6-1 3 The Fazz Man L Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 2 Pequeno Grande K Serrano
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 5 Musicality A Flores

* EXACTA: 6-10 BOX, 10-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 6/8/10 BOX, 3/8/10 BOX

RACE #2 MOUNTAINEER $17,800 Allowance Optional Claiming
7 Furlongs ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 7:22 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 6-1 9 Clickjab J M Davila
PLACE 5/2 8 Judah A Gonzalez
SHOW 12-1 3 Victory L. W Ortiz
WILD CARD 20-1 5 Creative Story L Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1 12-1 1 Honor Life N Vigil
ALTERNATE 2 2-1 6 Atlantic Sun A R Ramgeet

* EXACTA: 9-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/9 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX

RACE #3 MOUNTAINEER $17,800 Allowance
1 3/8 Mile ON THE Turf - POST TIME: 7:44 PM ET

#9 MUTASHABEH

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5/2 9 Mutashabeh K Serrano
PLACE 2-1 8 Delp O J Mayta
SHOW 6-1 3 Buffalo Max M A Ccamaque
WILD CARD 5-1 5 Macho Mania C Oliveros

ALTERNATE 1 20-1 1 Kentucky Peerless Y Yaranga
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 6 Smart and Broke A Gonzalez

* EXACTA: 9-8 BOX, 8-3 BOX, 3-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/8/9 BOX, 3/5/8 BOX

RACE #4 MOUNTAINEER $4,000 Claiming
1 Mile ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 8:06 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 4 Port Maria A Gonzalez
PLACE 6-1 6 Lil Smartiepants O J Mayta
SHOW 5/2 7 Expressly W Ortiz
WILD CARD 6-1 2 Cincy Belle A R Ramgeet

ALTERNATE 1 5-1 3 Scoreearlyandoften A Williams
ALTERNATE 2 8-1 8 Anna Kate R Barrios

* EXACTA: 4-6 BOX, 6-7 BOX, 7-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 4/6/7 BOX, 2/6/7 BOX

RACE #5 MOUNTAINEER $4,000 Claiming
1 Mile 70 Yards ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 8:28 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 7/5 3 Replay L Hernandez
PLACE 2-1 5 Charming Indy Y Yaranga
SHOW 10-1 6 Super Echelon A R Ramgeet
WILD CARD 20-1 9 Forest Night W Ortiz

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 2 Discreetly Placed A Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 1 Inmyfathersimage A Flores

* EXACTA: 3-5 BOX, 5-6 BOX, 6-9 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 3/5/6 BOX, 5/6/9 BOX

RACE #6 MOUNTAINEER $4,000 Claiming
5 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 8:50 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 4-1 5 Tiz Beauty C Oliveros
PLACE 2-1 3 Daily Feature A Gonzalez
SHOW 9/2 2 Candy Coded A Williams
WILD CARD 3-1 6 Lightning Lilly A Flores

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 1 Tough Old Bird K Serrano
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 8 Precious Beth Y Yaranga

* EXACTA: 5-3 BOX, 3-2 BOX, 2-6 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 2/3/5 BOX, 2/3/6 BOX

RACE #7 MOUNTAINEER $17,800 Allowance
5 1/2 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 9:12 PM ET

#2 UNTAPPED ENERGY

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 2-1 2 Untapped Energy A Gonzalez
PLACE 4-1 8 Maddy Machen A Flores
SHOW 7/2 1 Glitzy Gala N Vigil
WILD CARD 3-1 5 Treasured Bond A Williams

ALTERNATE 1 15-1 4 Moms Magic C Oliveros
ALTERNATE 2 12-1 6 Dixies Dance W Ortiz

* EXACTA: 2-8 BOX, 8-1 BOX, 1-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/8 BOX, 1/5/8 BOX

RACE #8 MOUNTAINEER $4,000 Claiming
6 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 9:34 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 9/5 3 Leading Indicator Y Yaranga
PLACE 5/2 6 To Honor and Run L Hernandez
SHOW 7/2 1 Anditsafact O J Mayta
WILD CARD 6-1 2 Dixie Red N Vigil

ALTERNATE 1 10-1 4 Jagger Baby A Gonzalez
ALTERNATE 2 10-1 7 Stealing Sunshine C Oliveros

* EXACTA: 3-6 BOX, 6-1 BOX, 1-2 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/3/6 BOX, 1/2/6 BOX

RACE #9 MOUNTAINEER $4,000 Claiming
5 Furlongs ON THE Dirt - POST TIME: 9:56 PM ET

PICK ORDER M/L P# HORSE NAME JOCKEY

WIN 5/2 1 Lady David K Serrano
PLACE 8-1 2 Olga Again W Ortiz
SHOW 7/2 8 Policy Mistake A Gonzalez
WILD CARD 6-1 5 A Little Flattered L Hernandez

ALTERNATE 1 8-1 3 Cherorama R Barrios
ALTERNATE 2 4-1 6 Berry Strong A Williams

* EXACTA: 1-2 BOX, 2-8 BOX, 8-5 BOX
* TRIFECTA: 1/2/8 BOX, 2/5/8 BOX

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Thistledown

1 8-1 5 Sassy Sister
2 5/2 2 Designate
3 6-1 7 Smokin Hot Energy
4 5/2 5 Diamonds N Dew
5 7/2 6 Wild Cowgirl
6 7/2 6 Dream Fever
7 3-1 6 Lovely Heir
8 3-1 1 Overwatch

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Hastings Park
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $10000 Class Rating: 66

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000, FOR EACH $1,750 TO $12,500 3 LBS. BRITISH COLUMBIA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 7 ATOMIC HAZE 5/2

# 4 WE GOT IT COVERED 3/1

# 2 TARGETED 8/1

ATOMIC HAZE has a very strong shot to take this race. Hernandez has a win percentage of 26 over the last month. Earned a strong Equibase Speed Figure in the last race. Can run another good one in this race. Keep this gelding in your exotics as Hernandez has given backers some double digit profits. WE GOT IT COVERED - Exhibits the look of a profitable play, averaging a solid 54 speed figure which is one of the most favorable in this group of horses in this race. He has a good opportunity for this event as conditioner, Pedersen, has sharp win rate with horses going this distance. TARGETED - Has a solid shot for this event if you like back class. Magalhaes has him trained soundly to break sharply out of the gate.

bmd1803 · Jul 21, 2020

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Meadows Tulsa
PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 12 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $4950 Class Rating: 83

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED AT THE CURRENT MEET AND DID NOT FINISH 1ST, 2ND OR 3RD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
The Walker Group Picks

# 6 MALLORY'S BANDIT 4/1

# 1 SURVEY 5/2

# 5 CONSUMERCONFIDENCE 10/1

MALLORY'S BANDIT has a decent shot to take this race. Displays strong Equibase Speed Figures on average overall when measured up against the rest of this group. Has very good Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. Reliable average Equibase speed figs in dirt sprint races make this racer a solid choice. SURVEY - Lately Ferrell has provided wagerers with a decent winning percentage with horses running in dirt sprint races. CONSUMERCONFIDENCE - This equine has to be in sound condition coming back to race so soon.

Tuesday Service Play Thread 07/21/2020

Let's go Brandon!

Let's go Brandon!

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