Thursday Service Play Thread 07/23/2020

BuzzKill · Jul 19, 2020

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bribux · Jul 23, 2020

baseball33

Los Angeles Dodgers -2

BuzzKill · Jul 23, 2020

Newsletters - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=307&p=13193231&viewfull=1#post13193231

BuzzKill · Jul 23, 2020

bribux · Jul 23, 2020

baseball33

Los Angeles Dodgers -2

bmd1803 · Jul 23, 2020

Rob Veno

MLB Season Over/Under Win Total

5% Twins over 34.5

bmd1803 · Jul 23, 2020

The Spot Player

2* Yankees -132
2* Brewers +115
2* D'Backs +115

MLS
Vancouver +1

bmd1803 · Jul 23, 2020

Mike McClure

Golf

Mike McClure, has been RED-HOT since the PGA Tour resumed in June. At the Memorial Tournament, McClure used the model to identify winner Jon Rahm (22-1) as one of his best bets from the start. It also had him as the projected winner heading into the weekend. The model was also all over long shot winner Collin Morikawa at the Workday Charity Open. It identified him as a top contender from the start despite his long odds and McClure recommended an outright bet on him to win at 33-1. The model also called Bryson DeChambeau taking the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

Using the model for his best bets, McClure returned a whopping +788 during the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, including nailing top-five bets on Xander Schauffele at 13-2 and Collin Morikawa at 9-1.

The model was also extremely high on 30-1 long shot winner Webb Simpson at the RBC Heritage. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure's best bets included Simpson winning outright. Those who followed that advice saw a whopping +3000 return!

This same model predicted Gary Woodland's first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn't the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Brooks Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka's historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he'd hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, the advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend, including two of the last three.

Bet's I've made this week as of 9:45 AM EST 7/20

Outright Winner:

Lucas Glover +3500
Doc Redman +5000
Max Homa +8000
Talor Gooch +10000
Aaron Wise +12500

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Dustin Johnson (10-1)
2. Tommy Fleetwood (14-1)
3. Brooks Koepka (12-1)
4. Tony Finau (14-1)
5. Paul Casey (25-1)
6. Lucas Glover (35-1)
7. Doc Redman (50-1)
8. Max Homa (80-1)
9. Erik Van Rooyen (40-1)
10. Harris English (35-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Ryan Moore
12 Matthew Wolff
13 Russell Henley
14 Brendon Todd
15 Jhonattan Vegas
16 Luke List
17 Bubba Watson
18 Patrick Rodgers
19 Henrik Norlander
20 Talor Gooch
21 Matthias Schwab
22 Jason Kokrak
23 Sam Burns
24 Aaron Wise
25 Brian Harman
26 Cameron Tringale
27 Rafa Cabrera Bello
28 Dylan Frittelli
29 Sepp Straka
30 Emiliano Grillo
31 Danny Lee
32 Scott Stallings
33 Kyle Stanley
34 Scott Piercy
35 Brice Garnett
36 Charles Howell III
37 Carlos Ortiz
38 Chesson Hadley
39 Bernd Wiesberger
40 Adam Long
41 Tom Hoge
42 Vaughn Taylor
43 Matthew NeSmith
44 Alex Noren
45 Adam Schenk
46 Si Woo Kim
47 Tom Lewis
48 Michael Thompson
49 Keith Mitchell
50 Jason Dufner
51 Branden Grace
52 Chase Seiffert
53 Troy Merritt
54 Chris Kirk
55 Charley Hoffman
56 Sam Ryder
57 Xinjun Zhang
58 Cameron Davis
59 Russell Knox
60 Pat Perez
61 Hudson Swafford
62 Denny McCarthy
63 Ben Martin
64 Bronson Burgoon
65 Stewart Cink
66 Richy Werenski
67 Joseph Bramlett
68 Ryan Armour
69 Nick Watney
70 Kyounghoon Lee
71 Harry Higgs
72 Grayson Murray
73 Wes Roach
74 Chris Baker
75 Will Gordon
76 Seamus Power
77 Scott Brown
78 Aaron Baddeley
79 Wyndham Clark
80 Austin Cook
81 Kristoffer Ventura
82 Charl Schwartzel
83 Andrew Putnam
84 Tim Wilkinson
85 Kramer Hickok
86 Fabian Gomez
87 Cameron Percy
88 Seung-Yul Noh
89 David Hearn
90 Brian Gay
91 Sahith Theegala
92 Bo Hoag
93 Mark Anderson
94 Josh Teater
95 Roger Sloan
96 Peter Uihlein
97 Beau Hossler
98 J.J. Spaun
99 Bill Haas
100 Brandon Hagy
101 Shawn Stefani
102 Robert Streb
103 Rob Oppenheim
104 Roberto Castro
105 Scott Harrington
106 Hank Lebioda
107 Doug Ghim
108 Chris Stroud
109 Kevin Tway
110 Johnson Wagner
111 Peter Malnati
112 Robby Shelton
113 D.J. Trahan
114 Jamie Lovemark
115 Tyler McCumber
116 Luke Donald
117 Ryan Blaum
118 Vincent Whaley
119 Patton Kizzire
120 Ryan Brehm
121 Alex Cejka
122 Sebastian Cappelen
123 Zack Sucher
124 Jonathan Byrd
125 Derek Ernst
126 Ted Potter Jr
127 George McNeill
128 Michael Gligic
129 Matt Every
130 Michael Gellerman
131 Sangmoon Bae
132 Ben Taylor
133 K.J. Choi
134 Chad Campbell
135 David Lingmerth
136 Nelson Ledesma
137 Rhein Gibson
138 Dominic Bozzelli
139
140
141 Ricky Barnes
142 Tommy Gainey
143 John Merrick
144 Greg Chalmers
145 Arjun Atwal
146 Bo Van Pelt
147 J.J. Henry
148 Tom Lehman
149 Chase Koepka
150 Tim Herron
151 Michael Kim
152 Angus Flanagan
153 Chris Couch
154 John Senden
155 Peter Kuest
156 Martin Trainer

bmd1803 · Jul 23, 2020

Rick Gehman

Course Preview

TPC Twin Cities will host the 3M Open for the second year, as this was among the tournaments added to the PGA TOUR schedule last season. It plays as a par 71, over 7,400 yards, and yielded a winning score of -21 to Matthew Wolff last season. Low scores are certainly available as evidenced by the low round of 62 shot in each of the four rounds last season.

Field Preview

This will be the first tournament since the TOUR's restart that will have a weaker field than last season. The top players in the world opted to sprint out of the gate and with a WGC event and the PGA Championship lurking the next two weeks, this became a natural resting point for the world's best players. With that being said, we still have a few big boppers here including Brooks Koepka and Dustin Johnson. Also, Tommy Fleetwood will be making his first start since the TOUR resumed.

#1 Matthew Wolff

The defending Champion almost won at the Rocket Mortgage Classic before falling to Bryson DeChambeau. After his opening 77 at The Memorial, he finished with rounds of 68-70-76 and had the 7th best Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green number from Friday to Sunday.

#2 Tony Finau

Finau melted down over his last 27 holes to finish 7th at Muirfield Village last week but has been in the midst of a stellar run of golf. He shot a 59 at his home course in Utah two weeks ago, then was stellar for 2.5 rounds last week. His raw power will come in handy at TPC Twin Cities.

#3 Brooks Koepka

Koepka has been battling an ailing knee since 2019 and has admitted that some days it's better than others. Even with that inconsistency, he has flashed brilliance at times in the last two weeks. If he wants any chance of making the TOUR Championship he needs to start posting high finishes immediately.

#4 Tommy Fleetwood

Making his first start since the Arnold Palmer Invitational, Fleetwood will bring his elite ballstriking ability to TPC Twin Cities. We will see how he plays after a long break that ended with a 3rd place finish at the Honda Classic and a MC at the Arnold Palmer Invitational.

#5 Dustin Johnson

I have no idea what to make of Johnson right now. He won the Travelers Championship and immediately followed it up with a pair of 80s at The Memorial. He was brutal in two rounds at Muirfield Village, losing 6.6 strokes from tee-to-green and another six lost on the greens.

#6 Paul Casey

Casey missed the cut on the number last week (+4) but all the damage came on #12 during his second round. He took an eight on the par 3, while playing the other 35 holes at one-under. That gives me optimism that Casey actually played better than his score would indicate.

#7 Bernd Wiesberger (80-1 longshot)

The #29 ranked player in the world hasn't played anywhere in the world since the WGC Mexico in February. Primarily playing on the European Tour, he finishing 2019 in a flurry, winning the Italian Open and notching two more Top 10s. He finished third in the Race to Dubai last season, the European Tour equivalent of the FedExCup standings. He actually wins tournaments, which is huge. Three wins last year and he plays in all the WGC events. This will be, by far, the weakest field he's ever played in on the PGA Tour.

#8 Bubba Watson

After opening with a 78 on Thursday at The Memorial, Watson was able to rebound and finish T32. The most impressive aspect was that he ranked sixth in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green last week and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach.

#9 Brendon Todd

Twice a winner this season, Todd tied Jon Rahm with the low round of the day on Saturday at The Memorial before finishing T22.

#10 Henrik Norlander

Norlander has four consecutive cuts made on TOUR including a T6 last week at The Memorial, one of the best finishes of his young career.

#11 Harris English

English finished 17th at the RBC Heritage before finishing XXX last week. He's incredibly solid, gaining strokes in all four major stat categories which is a feat that only a handful of golfers in this field can boast.

#12 Brian Harman

Harman's MC last week was his third straight but longer term, Harman had only missed one cut in his previous ten events. He's actually been better than the field from tee-to-green the last three weeks but absolutely brutal with the flatstick. If he can get his putting back to neutral, he can contend in this field.

#13 Luke List

Winner on the Korn Ferry Tour a few weeks ago, List finished T21 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic and then when 70-68 to open at The Memorial. He would go on to finish T10, his first Top 10 on TOUR since the 2019 PGA Championship.

#14 Lucas Glover

In the five events since the TOUR's restart, Glover has (4) Top 25 finishes. His T38 at The Memorial has been his worst finish which has made him one of the most consistent players on TOUR.

#15 Russell Henley

Henley didn't play The Memorial last week but finished T7 at the Workday Charity Open. That's his second Top 10 in his last four starts worldwide.

#16 Ryan Moore

Moore's T40 last week was his first made cut since the TOUR's restart. He gained strokes in three of the four major Strokes Gained categories which has me optimistic about him being able to continue playing well.

#17 Erik van Rooyen

Three solid finishing rounds of 69-73-73 for van Rooyen who notched a T22 at The Memorial. He has missed the cut in half of his last six starts, but the other three have been T22, T21 and T3. He's a "boom or bust" option.

#18 Doc Redman

Back-to-back 76s were the recipe for a missed cut at The Memorial, his first MC since the TOUR's restart. Statistically, he continued his excellent ballstriking but lost 2.12 strokes around the green and another 5.96 putting.

#19 Troy Merritt

Merritt was another casualty to the cut last week, the first time he hasn't played the weekend in five events. The predicted birdie-fest that we are likely to see at TPC Twin Cities should benefit Merritt.

#20 Will Gordon

Gordon's T3 at the Travelers Championship gave him temporary membership to the TOUR and he will tee it up for the first time since the Rocket Mortgage Classic. He has (3) Top 25s in his last four starts and a T10 at the RSM Classic earlier this season.

#21 Talor Gooch

Gooch couldn't rebound from his opening 78 at The Memorial despite beating the field average with a -2 round of 70 on Friday. He missed the cut on the number.

#22 Charley Hoffman

Hoffman didn't play last week, but finished T7 at the Workday Charity Open. He's been popping up on the first page of the leaderboard this season, including T13 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational and T9 at the Farmers Insurance Open.

#23 Patrick Rodgers

Impressive showing to finish T18 at The Memorial last week, his second Top 20 of the restart. He's accomplished both of those finishes in the two deepest fields this season.

#24 Max Homa

Homa's momentum from before the break has been stopped in its tracks. Now three straight missed cuts since the Travelers Championship but Homa's long term form is still significantly better than a large chunk of the field for this week.

#25 Alex Noren

Noren's T21 at the RBC Heritage has been his best finish in the restart and now gets to play in the weakest field since golf has returned. Even the best players in this field have big question marks!

#26 Rafa Cabrera Bello

Cabrera Bello finished T23 at Colonial and T37 at the Travelers Championship before missing the cut the last two weeks. He's the #52 ranked player in the world and his pedigree can go a long way at TPC Twin Cities.

#27 Sam Ryder

Ryder didn't play last week so his T7 at the Workday Charity Open was the last time we saw him. Ryder is getting used to seeing his name on the first page of the leader, he has another Top 5 finish at the Puerto Rico Open this season.

#28 Chase Seiffert

Seiffert turned heads with his 4th place finish at the Workday Charity Open, his best finish on the PGA TOUR.

#29 Dylan Frittelli

Fritelli finished T18 at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, T8 at the RBC Heritage and a T22 at The Memorial last week.

#30 Si Woo Kim

Four straight cuts made in the restart for Si Woo Kim who has also notched (2) Top 20s in that stretch.

bmd1803 · Jul 23, 2020

Mike McClure

Golf

Outright Winner:

Lucas Glover +3500
Doc Redman +5000
Max Homa +8000
Talor Gooch +10000
Aaron Wise +12500

Top 5 Finish

Max Homa +1200
Talor Gooch +1800

Top 10 Finish

Doc Redman +600

Top 20 Finish

Max Homa +300
Talor Gooch +400
Aaron Wise +400

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Dustin Johnson (10-1)
2. Tommy Fleetwood (14-1)
3. Brooks Koepka (12-1)
4. Tony Finau (14-1)
5. Paul Casey (25-1)
6. Lucas Glover (35-1)
7. Doc Redman (50-1)
8. Max Homa (80-1)
9. Erik Van Rooyen (40-1)
10. Harris English (35-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Ryan Moore
12 Matthew Wolff
13 Russell Henley
14 Brendon Todd
15 Jhonattan Vegas
16 Luke List
17 Bubba Watson
18 Patrick Rodgers
19 Henrik Norlander
20 Talor Gooch
21 Matthias Schwab
22 Jason Kokrak
23 Sam Burns
24 Aaron Wise
25 Brian Harman
26 Cameron Tringale
27 Rafa Cabrera Bello
28 Dylan Frittelli
29 Sepp Straka
30 Emiliano Grillo
31 Danny Lee
32 Scott Stallings
33 Kyle Stanley
34 Scott Piercy
35 Brice Garnett
36 Charles Howell III
37 Carlos Ortiz
38 Chesson Hadley
39 Bernd Wiesberger
40 Adam Long
41 Tom Hoge
42 Vaughn Taylor
43 Matthew NeSmith
44 Alex Noren
45 Adam Schenk
46 Si Woo Kim
47 Tom Lewis
48 Michael Thompson
49 Keith Mitchell
50 Jason Dufner
51 Branden Grace
52 Chase Seiffert
53 Troy Merritt
54 Chris Kirk
55 Charley Hoffman
56 Sam Ryder
57 Xinjun Zhang
58 Cameron Davis
59 Russell Knox
60 Pat Perez
61 Hudson Swafford
62 Denny McCarthy
63 Ben Martin
64 Bronson Burgoon
65 Stewart Cink
66 Richy Werenski
67 Joseph Bramlett
68 Ryan Armour
69 Nick Watney
70 Kyounghoon Lee
71 Harry Higgs
72 Grayson Murray
73 Wes Roach
74 Chris Baker
75 Will Gordon
76 Seamus Power
77 Scott Brown
78 Aaron Baddeley
79 Wyndham Clark
80 Austin Cook
81 Kristoffer Ventura
82 Charl Schwartzel
83 Andrew Putnam
84 Tim Wilkinson
85 Kramer Hickok
86 Fabian Gomez
87 Cameron Percy
88 Seung-Yul Noh
89 David Hearn
90 Brian Gay
91 Sahith Theegala
92 Bo Hoag
93 Mark Anderson
94 Josh Teater
95 Roger Sloan
96 Peter Uihlein
97 Beau Hossler
98 J.J. Spaun
99 Bill Haas
100 Brandon Hagy
101 Shawn Stefani
102 Robert Streb
103 Rob Oppenheim
104 Roberto Castro
105 Scott Harrington
106 Hank Lebioda
107 Doug Ghim
108 Chris Stroud
109 Kevin Tway
110 Johnson Wagner
111 Peter Malnati
112 Robby Shelton
113 D.J. Trahan
114 Jamie Lovemark
115 Tyler McCumber
116 Luke Donald
117 Ryan Blaum
118 Vincent Whaley
119 Patton Kizzire
120 Ryan Brehm
121 Alex Cejka
122 Sebastian Cappelen
123 Zack Sucher
124 Jonathan Byrd
125 Derek Ernst
126 Ted Potter Jr
127 George McNeill
128 Michael Gligic
129 Matt Every
130 Michael Gellerman
131 Sangmoon Bae
132 Ben Taylor
133 K.J. Choi
134 Chad Campbell
135 David Lingmerth
136 Nelson Ledesma
137 Rhein Gibson
138 Dominic Bozzelli
139
140
141 Ricky Barnes
142 Tommy Gainey
143 John Merrick
144 Greg Chalmers
145 Arjun Atwal
146 Bo Van Pelt
147 J.J. Henry
148 Tom Lehman
149 Chase Koepka
150 Tim Herron
151 Michael Kim
152 Angus Flanagan
153 Chris Couch
154 John Senden
155 Peter Kuest
156 Martin Trainer

bmd1803 · Jul 23, 2020

Rick Gehman

Golf

Last week's recap

The carnage witnessed at Muirfield Village last week extended to our betting slip, with a clean sweep of losses across the board. When betting golf, something like this is always bound to happen. We remain +25.93 units since inception, plus 32.93 units over the last 11 tournaments.

Event preview

Forget everything you saw at Muirfield Village because it'll be the opposite this week at TPC Twin Cities. A par-71 layout designed by Arnold Palmer is spacious and forgiving. Birdies will be critical. This is the weakest field we've seen on TOUR since the restart, withplenty of new names to consider.

Winner - Paul Casey (+2500) - 0.45 units

Top 5 - Paul Casey (+350) - 0.35 units

Casey was sublime last week...except for one hole. Seriously, Casey carded an 8 on the Par-3 12th hole on Friday, derailing his chances of making the cut. He missed the weekend by one stroke so it's easy to chalk that hole up as a fluke. He played the other 35 holes at -1 and one hole at +5. His ball-striking was excellent for the two rounds that he played and there's no reason to think Casey will have any lasting effects from one wacky hole.

Winner - Bubba Watson (+3500) - 0.40 units

Top 5 - Bubba Watson (+600) - 0.30 units

Watson is one of the streakier players on TOUR and he might be entering a heater at the moment. He gained 7.84 strokes on approach last week, the third-best number in the field. Watson is an elite driver, and he'll be able to unleash that skill around TPC Twin Cities.

Winner - Erik van Rooyen (+4500) - 0.38 units

Top 5 - Erik van Rooyen (+900) - 0.22 units

Van Rooyen is a "feast or famine" type player, who feasted at The Memorial. He gained 8.33 strokes on approach last week, second to only Ryan Palmer. He's sneaky long off the tee, 14th in driving distance, but lacks the accuracy to often take advantage of it. Luckily, TPC Twin Cities won't penalize you if you miss the fairway, so let it fly EVR!

Winner - Bernd Wiesberger (+9000) - 0.20 units

Top 5 - Bernd Wiesberger (+1000) - 0.25 units

The 29th-ranked player in the world is 90-1 to win a golf tournament. Winning a golf tournament is something he did on three separate occasions last year on the European Tour. His schedule is primarily played in Europe and he usually only comes to America for WGC events. This week will be, by far, the weakest field Wiesberger has ever been a part of on the PGA TOUR.

Top 10 - Doc Redman (+550) - 0.53 units

An atrocious week on and around the greens at Muirfield Village cannot scare me away from Redman. Those diabolical greens cost him 5.96 strokes to the field and he had another 2.12 lost around-the-greens. There's nothing like that lurking at TPC Twin Cities, where Redman's solid ball-striking can shine.

Top 10 - Dylan Fritelli (+550) - 0.42 units

Fritelli was the clubhouse leader at RBC Heritage before finishing 8th. That was the first of his (2) Top 25s in the restart, with the other coming last week at The Memorial. Fritelli has found himself on the first page of the leaderboard at both the Safeway Open and Sanderson Farmers Championship this season, both of which will strongly resemble the strength of field at this week's 3M Open.

Top 20 - Patrick Rodgers (+275) - 0.60 units

Rodgers has (2) Top 20 finishes in the restart, one at the Charles Schwab Challenge and another last week at The Memorial. Those are two of the strongest fields in recent memory. Also, Rodgers loves bentgrass, which is the surface for TPC Twin Cities. He's gained 0.56 strokes putting on bentgrass since 2015. That's the most of anyone in this field with at least 50 rounds on the surface.

Tournament Matchup - Harris English (-115) over Russell Henley (+105) - 1 unit

English is an absolute gamer, with Top 20 finishes in five of his last six starts. Two of those have come since the restart -- at the RBC Heritage and last week at The Memorial. He gains strokes in all four major categories, which usually provides a great floor

bmd1803 · Jul 23, 2020

Sal Johnson

Golf

3M Open

There have been six events since the break, and after this week we will have a WGC event, the PGA Championship and the Wyndham, followed by the three FedExCup playoff events.

Dustin Johnson is the only winner from the past six weeks who is entered this week, and there are a lot of question marks next to his name after he missed the cut at the Memorial with a pair of 80s. It was only the 40th time in 268 starts that he has missed the cut, and the first time he shot 80 or higher twice.

Since missing consecutive cuts at the 2017 Memorial and U.S. Open, Johnson has played in 55 events and missed four cuts. Two of those have come in his past four starts, but he also won the Travelers during that span.

It's hard to fathom he could go from a victory to his worst PGA Tour start, and there is no reason we can find for the poor performance. Although he does seem to struggle at the Memorial, where he has missed four cuts, his most in a single event.

Brooks Koepka added this week's event because, with just four weeks before the FedExCup playoffs, Koepka is not in the field. He ranks 153rd in the standings, and the top 125 make the playoffs. Koepka felt like he was healthy after the break, but that might not be the case.

During the Workday Charity two weeks ago, he had some discomfort, but an MRI revealed no problems. At the Memorial, he made the cut on the number but shot 73-80 on the weekend. His entire game is in distress aside from putting, and even that has been off from past years.

Koepka was 12th last year in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, while this year he is T-93. He was 11th in Greens in Regulation in 2019, and this year he is 179th. So something has to change, as in the coming weeks he will be defending his title at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude Invitational and will go for his third straight PGA Championship.

Only four of the players who had top-10 finishes at the Memorial are entered this week -- Mackenzie Hughes (T-6), Tony Finau (8th), Luke List (T-10) and Xinjun Zhang (T-10).

Of those, only Hughes has multiple top-10s since the break (he was T-3 at the Travelers). Hughes finished T-65 at the 3M Open last year, so there is no reason the think he could be a favorite.

Finau was T-23 here last year and played great in the first two rounds at Muirfield last week, but he closed with 73-78.

Lucas Glover is the only player of the top 15 finishers at last year's 3M Open who has played well since the break. He tied for seventh last year, and he tied for 38th at the Memorial; after four consecutive top-25 finishes since the layoff.

It looks like this week's 3M Open will be a wide-open event with no obvious favorite.

TPC Twin Cities

This is the second edition of this event after a successful beginning last year that taught us a lot about TPC Twin Cities.

The greens are 6,500 square feet, which makes them a bit small, but they are very manageable. Players won't find a lot of undulations, but the greens aren't flat and some breaks will come into play. On the whole, good putters love TPC Twin Cities.

The course relies on a combination of lakes (10 will be in play off the tee), bunkers (14 reachable off the tee) and rough for protection. Five of the holes have sharp doglegs, where players will need to lay back so they don't run out of fairway. Still, long hitters will have their way with the course, since the bluegrass fescue rough shouldn't be a problem for players. There are 72 bunkers on the course, with 39 guarding the greens.

The average drive last year was 290.7 yards, showing that players can rear back and drive it a long way. It has been dry in Minnesota, which should help shorter drivers, but winner Matthew Wolff and runners-up Bryson DeChambeau and Collin Morikawa all hit it long and dominated the course.

The field last year hit 73.38 percent of the greens, with only seven other courses allowing better stats on Greens In Regulation in 2019. So those who drive well and hit greens will have the advantage.

No course on Tour last year produced more than the 1,976 birdies made at the 3M Open.

Keys to winning

The motto for this week will be "hit it long." Since the rough won't be a challenge and fairway bunkers and trees are limited, the bombers will have an advantage. We also know the greens are easy to hit, but it is hard to get up and down if you miss, so those who scramble well also have an edge.

The three par 5s play at least 590 yards, but the average score is 4.60, so making birdies on those holes is important. Birdies also could be plentiful on the par 3s. Last year, they played to an average score of 2.96, with only two courses in 2019 yielding lower scores.

The course is new to 50 percent of the players, so there is little local knowledge advantage.

√ Hitting it far is more important than accuracy, as TPC Twin Cities is a bomber's delight.
√ Last year showed that hitting a lot of greens is one of the keys to playing well.
√ TPC Twin Cities allows a lot of birdies, so those high up in Par Breakers will do well this week.
√ Weather will be good and the fairways will be dry, meaning a lot of roll. Wind shouldn't be much of a problem, also bringing scores down.
√ There aren't many marquee names, so the player you least expect will probably be the winner.

One of these three should win

1. Tony Finau

√ This is his type of course, and he was T-23 last year at TPC Twin Cities.
√ His game showed signs of peaking last week with his eighth-place finish at the Memorial.
√ Ranks 17th in Driving Distance All Drives, 47th in Greens in Regulation and 13th in Par Breakers.

2. Dustin Johnson

√ Forget what happened at Memorial, as he has always struggled at Muirfield Village. He won at the Travelers on a course a lot like TPC Twin Cities.
√ Playing the course for the first time.
√ Ranks 14th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, T-41 in Proximity to Hole and 26th in Par Breakers.

3. Tommy Fleetwood

√ Making his first start since the Arnold Palmer, so he could be rusty. In his last seven worldwide starts before the break, he had a win, two seconds and a third and didn't finish worse than 18th.
√ Has never played in this event.
√ He hits it long, ranking 14th in driving distance, and is 26th in Greens in Regulation.

Others who can win

4. Matthew Wolff

√ Defending champion was second at the Rocket Mortgage.
√ Was T-22 last week at Memorial, but his game has been inconsistent this year.
√ Drives it long, ranking sixth in Driving Distance, so when he gets the putter going, he is tough to beat.

5. Harris English

√ Missed the cut last year at the 3M and was T-13 at Memorial.
√ Hard to believe that he has nine top-20 finishes in 14 starts for 2020.
√ Is 13th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 11th in Greens in Regulation and 11th in Scoring Average.

6. Lucas Glover

√ Was T-7 last year at 3M, shooting 62 in his final round. Is good from tee to green, but a disaster on or around the greens.
√ Since the break, he has played in five events, making the cut in all five. His best finish is a T-20 at Travelers.
√ Ranks 40th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 43rd in Greens in Regulation and 36th in Par Breakers.

7. Erik Van Rooyen

√ Playing for the first time at 3M, was T-22 last week at Memorial.
√ He likes to hit it long and is 14th on PGA Tour in Driving Distance.
√ Will surprise you to learn that in his 22 starts around the world, he has a win (2019 Scandinavian) along with a second and a third included in his eight top-15 finishes.

8. Henrik Norlander

√ Playing for the first time at 3M, was T-6 last week at Memorial.
√ His game has been strong since the break, and he has finished in the top-40 in his last four starts.
√ Is 34th in Greens in Regulation, 61st in Putting Inside 10 feet. He made 243 birdies in 2019, 20th-most on Tour.

Unexpected contenders

9. Doc Redman

√ Missed the cut last year at 3M, but his game has been solid since the break.
√ He missed the cut last week but was T-11 at Travelers and T-21 at Heritage and Rocket Mortgage.
√ A very good ball striker, was 18th in Greens in Regulation and 26th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee.

10. Troy Merritt

√ Was T-7 last year at 3M Open.
√ Missed the cut at Memorial but was T-8 at Rocket Mortgage.
√ Not long off the tee, but is accurate and with dry fairways he could hit it far. Also a great putter, ranking 36th in Strokes Gained Putting and seventh in Putting Inside 10 feet.

11. Luke List

√ Missed the cut last year at the 3M Open.
√ Was T-10 at Memorial and won his first start after the break at Korn Ferry Challenge.
√ Is 24th in Driving Distance, 70th in Greens in Regulation and 27th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee.

12. Sepp Straka

√ Missed the cut last year at the 3M Open.
√ Last three starts: T-8 at Rocket Mortgage, T-14 at Workday Charity and 61st at Memorial.
√ Is 56th in Driving Distance, T-47 in Proximity to Hole and 67th in Strokes Gained Putting.

Could go in either direction

13. Brooks Koepka

√ Playing for the first time at 3M and was T-62 last week at Memorial.
√ Game has not been sharp, and he could be having more problems with his knee.
√ It's best to be careful, as he can win, but it's very doubtful the way he is playing.

bmd1803 · Jul 23, 2020

Mike McClure

NASCAR

The projected top 10, according to the model (odds via William Hill):

1. Kevin Harvick (4-1)
2. Martin Truex Jr (8-1)
3. Chase Elliott (17-2)
4. Brad Keselowski (12-1)
5. Denny Hamlin (15-2)
6. Kyle Busch (13-2)
7. Ryan Blaney (13-2)
8. Joey Logano (12-1)
9. Erik Jones (28-1)
10. Kurt Busch (22-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Clint Bowyer
12 Jimmie Johnson
13 Aric Almirola
14 Tyler Reddick
15 Christopher Bell
16 Alex Bowman
17 Matt DiBenedetto
18 William Byron
19 Austin Dillon
20 Matt Kenseth
21 Cole Custer
22 Ryan Newman
23 Bubba Wallace
24 Chris Buescher
25 Ricky Stenhouse Jr
26 Ty Dillon
27 Corey Lajoie
28 Daniel Suarez
29 John H. Nemechek
30 Michael McDowell
31 Ryan Preece
32 JJ Yeley
33 BJ McLeod
34 Brennan Poole
35 Timmy Hill
36 Gray Gaulding
37 Reed Sorenson
38 Joey Gase
39 Quin Houff
40 Josh Bilicki

BuzzKill · Jul 23, 2020

Paul Leiner

MLB & Soccer picks 7/23

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:10 am
So happy MLB is back. I actually have an Under I like tonight. Enjoy opening day.

500* Under 8 Dodgers/Giants
100* Over 3 Lazio/Cagliari

XSPower · Jul 23, 2020

bmd1803 said:
The Spot Player

2* Yankees -132
2* Brewers +115
2* D'Backs +115

MLS
Vancouver +1

Not to bust ball but he only has one baseball selections today according to the website that track his plays. So I'm guessing the pick is the Yankees -132 since the Brewers and D'back don't play today?

Thank for posting

jjkop · Jul 23, 2020

Anyone have fezzik baseball opening night?

sailfish · Jul 23, 2020

Wayne Root
Millionaire NYY

sailfish · Jul 23, 2020

Adam Goodwyn

THE MONEYLINE GUY

WASHINGTON +120
N.Y. YANKEES @ WASHINGTON | 7/23 | 7:08 PM EDT
I'm taking the Nationals. My model has the champs winning 49.1 percent of the time. The spread (+120) currently translates to a 45.5 winning percentage, thus, my model sees an edge of 3.6 percent. Take the value in the first game back.

Lotterymoney · Jul 23, 2020

Lotterymoney · Jul 23, 2020

Buzz Kill said:
Paul Leiner

MLB & Soccer picks 7/23

Thu Jul 23, 2020 5:10 am
So happy MLB is back. I actually have an Under I like tonight. Enjoy opening day.

500* Under 8 Dodgers/Giants
100* Over 3 Lazio/Cagliari

what's his 2000?

Thursday Service Play Thread 07/23/2020

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