Saturday Service Play Thread 07/25/2020

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Kyle Marley

UFC

Before you make any UFC on ESPN picks for Saturday, you NEED to see the latest predictions from SportsLine MMA expert Kyle Marley. He won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past 16 months, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up more than $20,000.

Marley has hit 14 of his last 15 UFC main-event picks, a stretch that includes five upsets.

Robert Whittaker (-120) vs. Darren Till (+100): Whittaker by decision

I don't see either looking to take this to the mat unless they are hurt on the feet and looking to buy time, so this should be a 25-minute striking match unless we see a knockout. I think Till could have more one-shot power, but Whittaker is better at putting punches together and landing punishing volume. On average, Whittaker lands 4.77 significant strikes per minute compared to 2.41 from Till. I don't see the volume from Till changing because he will still have his bounce-around-the-cage style, so he is going to need to slow Whittaker's volume down with that style. Whittaker is the better overall striker and he is more likely to win rounds and get his hand raised if this goes to the scorecards. He is coming off three fights in which he took a ton of damage, so there's uncertainty surrounding how his chinw ill hold up against the powerful Till.

Mauricio Rua (-200) vs. Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+175): Rua by TKO

Rua has already beat Nogueira twice and he is six years younger. Both guys are toward the end of their careers, but I think Rua is still more durable and less likely to get knocked out. He is less active and could lose on the scorecards. He was out-struck in their last match and against Paul Craig in his last fight, and that is not a good look. Rua can still get takedowns and win rounds that way so I like him as the pick, but he is hard to trust at this line.

Alexander Gustafsson -300 vs. Fabricio Werdum +250: Gustafsson by TKO

On paper, Gustafsson should win a striking match and maybe even knock Werdum out. Werdum is not a great wrestler and Gustafsson should have the takedown defense to keep this fight where he wants. Werdum could be in trouble on the feet based on how he looked in his last fight. Gustafsson just retired after being submitted by Anthony Smith, and that is not a good look. Werdum is much more dangerous than Smith on the ground. I like Gustafsson but, when fighters start talking about retirement, it is hard to trust how into the fight game they really are and if he got submitted again here it wouldn't really shock me.

Carla Esparza (+130) vs. Maria Rodriguez (-150): Rodriguez by decision

This should be a clear striker versus grappler matchup. Rodriguez should win basically every second this fight stays standing. Esparza is going to be looking for takedowns and Rodriguez can be put on her back and spend too much time there. Esparza is going to need to get this fight to the ground enough to win two rounds with her wrestling because I don't see how she finishes Rodriguez. I think Rodriguez can be active enough off her back to maybe lock up a submission, but she really just needs to get back to her feet and tee off to get her hand raised.

Paul Craig (-110) vs. Gadzhimurad Antigulov (-110): Antigulov by TKO

This is a weird one to call. Craig is not very good, but he is slick off his back and he is probably more active than Antigulov. I think Antigulov is going to have the wrestling and power edge, but he is going to want the fight on the mat and that is where Craig is at his best. I think Antigulov is going to need a TKO or submission finish because I think the longer this fight goes, the more it will favor Craig. But I expect Antigulov to land an early takedown and try to get the round 1 finish, so I will just take that as my prediction.

Alex Oliveira (-175) vs. Peter Sobotta (+155): Sobatta by submission

I give Oliveira the advantage on the feet, but the ground game is going to be close and possibly the edge goes to the underdog. On the mat, I give the wrestling edge to Oliveir, but the grappling and submission edge to Sobatta. I would say this fight is close enough to call it dog-or-pass at this line, but we haven't seen Sobatta in 2.5 years and I really have no idea what to expect.

Khamzat Chimaev (-1,200) vs. Rhys McKee (+750): Chimaev by submission

Chimaev is making his return after making the world think he is the next Khabib two weeks ago. This guy could well be legit and maybe even a contender with his ground game. He looks like he can have the ground edge over most guys in the UFC, but he no resistance in his debut. I don't think any of his wins will look that easy going forward, but I am still high on him and this looks like a hand-picked fight to get him another win.

Jai Herbert (+135) vs. Francisco Trinaldo (-155): Herbert by decision

Herbert is making his UFC debut and he looks pretty decent. Trinaldo is a tough test and should have the edge in power, wrestling and experience. Herbert looks lighter on the feet and probably has the better overall striking. I expect him to be the guy throwing more volume, whereas Trinaldo only needs one big shot. I expect this fight to mainly play out on the feet and, at these odds, I have to say it is dog or pass.

Nicolas Dalby (-270) vs. Jesse Ronson (+230): Dalby by decision

Dalby should be the better fighter everywhere. I think he is going to be the fighter striking at a higher pace, and I would say he is more dangerous on the feet and the ground as well. I don't see him dominating, so this line could be a bit high. I could see this being a close 15-minute fight, but Ronson is coming up a weight class for this one and Dalby should do enough to get his hand raised and possibly even get a clear 30-27.

Tom Aspinall (-200) vs. Jake Collier (+170): Aspinall by TKO

Collier hasn't fought in almost three years and this will be his Heavyweight debut. There is just no way I could trust him at this point, and I think this is favorite or pass on the betting line. Aspinall will be the bigger guy and he looked pretty decent. He has solid boxing and I expect him to have a big power edge. I think he is going to be able to keep this fight on the feet and either win a striking decision or put Collier away.

Movsar Evloev (-190) vs. Mike Grundy (+170): Grundy by decision

I think this is a close one. Both guys are good wrestlers and I don't know who to give the edge to there. I think Evloev is the better grappler, but I don't know that he can have much success getting Grundy down and it cancels out enough to make this mainly a striking battle. On the feet, I think Evloev is the better overall striker and maybe the guy that will be throwing with more volume and combinations. Grundy looks like he would have more power and I don't see Evloev being so much better on the feet that he should be this big of a favorite. I think the value is on the dog in this matchup and I think this should be closer to a 50-50 fight.

Tanner Boser (-240) vs. Raphael Pessoa (+200): Boser by decision

I have not been high on Boser, but it's hard to not pick him in this one. I don't know about laying -this price, but he deserves to be the favorite. This should be a striking fight and I expect Boser to have the volume edge and I like his leg kicks. Pessoa might have the better hands and more power, he just doesn't throw them enough. I don't want to rely on him getting a knockout because he doesn't have scary power, either.

Bethe Correia (+100) vs. Pannie Kianzad (-120): Kianzad by decision

I think this will be a 15-minute striking battle and it should be close. I don't see either fighter having any big edges but, if I had to pick one of them to be the favorite, it would be Kianzad. I think -the price might be a bit too high, but she is more on the way up and Correia is on the way out, so it still might be favorite or pass.

Ramazan Emeev (-380) vs. Niklas Stolze (+310): Emeev by decision

Stolze is making his UFC debut and he has a tough test against Emeev. I would say Emeev is better everywhere, but he really lacks volume and that could be an issue for him moving forward. He is the better striker and wrester, but Stolze is live for a submission. I expect Emeev to keep this fight on the feet and win, I just don't think there is any value in him at this line.

Nathaniel Wood (-450) vs. John Castaneda (+370): Wood by TKO

I am high on Wood as a prospect and I think he is better everywhere. Castaneda didn't look bad, but I don't see any advantages for him in this matchup and I would think he is in a position of knockout or bust. Wood has a questionable chin and, if Castaneda can test it, maybe he can get a stoppage. If he doesn't, I expect him to get beat up and Wood can finish him on the feet or the ground.

Mike McClure

UFC

DFS

UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till

Top Picks: Mauricio Rua, Alexander Gustafsson and Khamzat Chimaev

baseball33

Colorado Rockies

The Spot Player

2* Brescia +0.5 (Italy 1)
2* Goztepe +0.75 (Turkey SL)
2* Genclerbirligi +0.75 (Turkey SL)
2* Kayserispor +0.5 (Turker SL)
2* Braga +0.25 (Portugal 1)
2* Montreal +0.5 (MLS)

Gjelstad and Norheim

Soccer

Saturday, July 25


Orlando City v. Montreal Impact (8 p.m. ET)

Money line: Orlando City -109

Total goals: Over 2.5

Likely score: Orlando City 2, Montreal Impact 1


Philadelphia Union v. New England Revolution (10:30 p.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +260 (after 90 minutes of play)

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Philadelphia Union 1, New England Revolution 1

Root

Perfect play- Twins

Cal Sports
3% Cleveland Indians -250

Inkbets

MLB: Pirates/Cardinals Ov9 @ 1.813/-123 (3 Units)
MLB: Milwaukee Brewers ML @ 2.37/+137 (2 Units)
MLB: Washington Nationals +0.5 1H @ 1.73/-137 (2 Units)

SPORTS INSURANCE ADJUSTERS

Bonus Play: Milwaukee +120 vs Chicago NL

MLB Service Plays:

Boston RL -1.5 -110 vs Baltimore

Philadelphia RL -1.5 +110 vs Miami

SLEEPY J all about the Padres today -125 ...

Says the padres homos were kissing and feeling each other up during the opening day victory yesterday

SLEEPY J says it's some kind of homo erotic warrior thing they have going on there in San Diego, kind of like Alexander the Great and his guys

Says take the Padres tonight at 9PM EST

Good luck with your wagers

GDaddy46 said:

Inkbets

MLB: Pirates/Cardinals Ov9 @ 1.813/-123 (3 Units)
MLB: Milwaukee Brewers ML @ 2.37/+137 (2 Units)
MLB: Washington Nationals +0.5 1H @ 1.73/-137 (2 Units)

Click to expand...

MLB: Dbacks/Padres Ov4 1H @ 1.87/-115 (2 Units)