BoSox04 2020 MLB Season Thread

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Hey everyone. This is my first year posting my baseball picks on the forum. Baseball is my favorite sport and I am glad to have it back. I think this season could be a lot of fun and potentially see a couple under the radar teams make a run. Especially with expanded playoffs. All my plays will be 1-5 units and I will post my updated record daily. Good luck to everyone. I hope we all make money.

July 23rd

Yankees/Dodgers ML parlay- (EV)- 2 units
I don't typically like parlaying big favorites and I will be fading Gerrit Cole at times this year when he is on the mound and the line is inevitably too juiced. However, tonight is not one of those nights. Washington not having Soto is a big loss. He was supposed to anchor their lineup now that Harper and Rendon have left via free agency the last 2 years. I expect we will see both bullpens earlier then normal tonight which also favors the Yankees. Not much to say about the other game. The Giants stink.

Yankees/Nationals over 7.5- (-115)- 2 units

Good luck to all bettors. I will post some futures shortly.
 

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Futures:

All futures are for one unit. I am playing it safe due to the uncertainty of a shortened season.

Win Totals:

D-backs over 31.5 (-120)- this is a team I feel like people are sleeping on that could make a run. I like their off-season additions and their manager.

White Sox under 32.5 (EV)- I think we are a year early on this team and I will happily fade the public on this one at even money.

Rockies under 27.5 (-130)- This team has not done a good job of surrounding their top 3 players with talent and that will show itself this season.

Tigers under 22.5 (-115)

Giants under 24.5 (-140)

Rays over 34 (-125)- I really like this team. Three really good arms at the top of their rotation, good manager and a strong bullpen.

Pennant Winners:

Rays to win the AL (+800)- Same case I made for the over on their win total. I didn't like to see Poche go down for the season the other day, but they have a deep bullpen. The opener has been a weapon for them and I will take the trio of Snell, Glasnow and Morton in the playoffs. Offensively they aren't elite, but they have enough there combined with their pitching staff to win close games.

Reds to win the NL (+900)- The organization has actually invested in the team the last couple years through trades and free agency (Gray, Bauer, Moustakas, Castellanos, Strop, etc.) and I think they could foil the Dodgers in the postseason. They have a lot of positional versatility and depth offensively to be able to remain competitive if they lose a couple players to injury or Covid-19. The easy pick would be the Dodgers, but would anyone be surprised if the Dodgers don't get it done again this year? I think the Reds have a real shot and 9-1 is a fair price.

Win the World Series:

Rays (+1600)
Reds (+1800)
 

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The parlay is still a go tonight despite Kershaw being scratched. I like May a lot and he should have success against the Giants without Posey, Longoria and Belt.
 

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Yesterday 1-0/ YTD: 1-0, +2 units

July 24th

Mets -1.5 (+125), 2 units

I will have more later when I’m not at work.
 

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Added Plays:

Blue Jays ML (+130), 2 units

Red Sox -1.5 (-125), 3 units- As if the Orioles aren't bad enough, they don't have Dwight Smith Jr. or Trey Mancini to plug into the lineup. And the best player on their team, John Means, was scratched in favor of Tommy Milone. Should be a long day for Milone and a long season for the O's.

Athletics ML (-160), 2 units
 

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Yesterday 3-1, +5 units/YTD: 4-1, +7 units
July 25th

Cubs ML (-155), 2 units
Cubs/Brewers F5 under 5.5 (-110), 1 unit- Both teams looked to be a little behind at the plate last night. Darvish has had good success against the Brewers with a 1.67 ERA in 5 games.

Tigers/Reds F5 over 5.5 (-110), 1 unit- Ivan Nova is an old school type of pitcher meaning he often pitches to contact. I think that will get him in some trouble today. I'm not willing to lay -250 on the Reds but I will take a stab on this over.

More to come later. Good luck everyone.
 

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Adding:

Pirates ML (+140), 2 units

Braves ML (-125), 3 units- The Braves will breathe a sigh of relief going from facing DeGrom to Matz today. I like Fried better then Matz and will happily take Atlanta at a reasonable price this afternoon.
 

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Adding:

D-backs ML (+110), 4 units- I really like the D-backs in this one. I was high on them going into the season and look for them to get their first win tonight. I also noticed that as of the time I am typing this, every team who lost yesterday has won today with the exception of two (Mariners and Pirates). Early in the season I expect teams to really be focused on trying to avoid losing streaks due to the shortened season. Arizona's lineup and pitcher Robbie Ray should be motivated.
 

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Yesterday 1-5, -8.3 units/YTD: 5-6, -1.3 units
Bad day yesterday which happens once in a while especially early in a season. Let's try to get back on the plus side today.

July 26th

Rays/Blue Jays under 8 (EV), 2 units
Marlins/Phillies over 9.5 (-120), 2 units
Orioles/Red Sox over 11 (-120), 3 units- I like the Sox to bounce back today offensively after only scoring twice yesterday. I don't see Wade Leblanc or Ryan Weber consistently putting up zeros and I don't love either team's bullpen. It will be a hot one at Fenway and the ball will be carrying.

Nats F5 ML (-110), 1 unit- The starting pitching matchup clearly favors Washington. The Yankees will be without Sanchez and Hicks and will deploy Andujar in left field. However, I don't trust the Nat's pen which is why I am taking them in the first five innings versus the full game.
 

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Diamondbacks ML (+110), 3 units- This is a pretty even matchup today with a clear motivation edge to Arizona. They do not want to drop the first 3 games of this series. They absolutely want to come away with a 4 game split which means they have to win today. It seems the wrong team is favored and I like the D-backs to pick up their first win.
 

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Giants/Dodgers over 9 (-110), 2 units- I don't trust either of these starters, especially Smyly. LA scored 8 and 9 runs the first two games and could easily get there again tonight. The Giants got a little confidence yesterday scoring 5 runs for their first win. If they can get to 3 or 4, that should be enough. Good luck.
 

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Yesterday 3-2-1, +2.1 units/YTD: 8-8-1, +.8 units

Could have been a better day if Giles didn't blow it in the 9th with two outs and nobody on. The bullpen guys seem to be a bit behind right now which is something I will continue to monitor.

July 27th

Diamondbacks/Padres under 8.5 (-110), 2 units
Indians ML (-135), 3 units
 

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Rays ML (-140), 3 units
Royals/Tigers over 10 (-105), 2 units
Red Sox ML (-110), 2 units

The Indians game has been postponed putting the total at 3 games today. Hopefully MLB can weather this storm and players start making safer choices.
 

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Tribe was PPD due to weather
 

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Tribe was PPD due to weather

Yes I was incorrect. I had just read an article saying the White Sox manager had a cough and sinus issues. The next thing I saw was the game had been postponed. So i incorrectly thought that was the reason. But it was a weather postponement which is much better then another game being cancelled due to Covid.
 

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Yesterday 3-1, +4.8 units/YTD: 11-9-1, +5.6 units
July 28th


Indians ML (-140), 2 units- This is for Game 1 of the doubleheader
Nats F5 ML (-135), 1 unit
Astros F5 +.5 (-110), 1 unit

More to come later. Good luck everyone!
 

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Reds ML (-130), 3 units
Cardinals/Twins under 10.5 -110, 2 units
White Sox ML (+115), 2 units- This is for Game 2 of the doubleheader
 

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Thanks for sharing your plays and BOL this season!
 

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Thanks Timmy. Same to you!

Adding:

Diamondbacks ML (-115), 2 units
Giants ML (+135), 2 units
 

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Yesterday 3-5, -4.35 units/YTD: 13-13-1, +1.25 units

July 29th

Athletics ML (-160), 2 units
White Sox ML (-110), 3 units
Cubs/Reds under 9 (-105), 2 units- Lance Barksdale is the home plate umpire in this game. Over the last 5 seasons, 59% of his games have gone under and have averaged less then 9 runs per game. Hendricks and Gray were both solid their first time out and should play into this trend nicely.

Red Sox/Mets under 7.5 (EV), 2 units- Mike Estabrook is another under ump. His called strike percentage is over 64% and his strikeout to walk ratio is 3.07, both of which are among the highest in the game for umpires with over 100 appearances behind home plate. DeGrom is a stud and Eovaldi has been sharp from summer camp through his first outing on Opening Day.

Yankees/Orioles over 5 F5 innings (EV)- 1 unit

GL
 

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