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Thread: Saturday Service Play Thread 08/01/2020

  1. #1 Saturday Service Play Thread 08/01/2020 
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    Anyone have fezzik 3* game of the week?
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    Red Dog Sports

    Aug 01 '20, 1:30 PM in 16h
    Soccer | Dinamo Minsk vs Neman Grodno
    Play on: Draw +217 at jazz

    draw +217
    Dinamo 1
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    The free soccer pick takes place in Russia on Saturday. I think we see a 1-1 draw.


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    Saturday Bi-Coastal Stakes Analysis

    July 31, 2020 | By Johnny D

    The $100,000 Shared Belief, to be contested Saturday at Del Mar, has never been a prep for the Kentucky Derby. Makes sense. Del Mar’s meet normally extends from late-July through Labor Day and the Kentucky Derby is run on the first Saturday in May. However, in case you haven’t noticed, nothing’s ‘normal’ this year.

    Not since 1918 have people worldwide simultaneously sacrificed so much so quickly. While critical issues continue to swirl about, we turn to horseracing for entertainment and momentary shelter from reported growing totals of infected and deceased.

    This year, the Kentucky Derby will be contested September 5, and Saturday’s one mile and one-sixteenth Shared Belief serves as a significant Louisville prep race, especially for top ranked contender Honor A. P. and emerging Cezanne. The Shared Belief isn’t much of a wagering event but, as the second race on an 11-race card, it represents leg B of the early Pick 5.

    Based on 200 weekly players, top three finishers each Saturday will earn $2,100; $875 and $525, respectively. ‘Final Table’ top 3 finishers will collect $12,250; $3,500 and $1,750, respectively. And that’s not including the ‘live’ cash players accumulate while wagering on races at the Spa and Where the Turf Meets the Surf!

    Below is one man’s horse-by-horse analysis of the Shared Belief Stakes, followed by horse-by-horse comments on runners in three Grade 1 races from Saratoga:

    Del Mar—Race 2—Shared Belief Stakes

    1. Uncle Chuck has plenty of talent. He’s a good-sized, long-striding colt with natural speed and the look of a distance horse. Trainer Bob Baffert usually wins Kentucky Derbies and sometimes Triple Crowns with this kind. The colt has only had two races, so he’s a bit inexperienced. He changes leads back and forth in the stretch but never stops running. Expect this son of Uncle Mo to be scratched from this race in favor of a start against number one ranked Tiz the Law in next Saturday’s Travers at Saratoga.

    2. Thousand Words is one of two Bob Baffert-trained runners that will start in this race. The other is #6 Cezanne. This son of Pioneerof the Nile won his first three races but has managed just one in the money finish in as many races since—a well-beaten second to stablemate #1 Uncle Chuck. He’s got a stalking style and should ride the rail early.

    3. Anneau d’Or hasn’t improved much since his 2-year-old season. He is expected to scratch from this race for a start in the Ellis Park Derby. No matter where he actually races, he will need to show more than previously shown at age 3. He seems a classic example of a colt that didn’t improve from age 2 to 3.

    4. Kiss Today Goodbye seems completely overmatched in here but probably will earn fourth money just by showing up.

    5. Honor A. P. upset Baffert’s highly regarded Authentic last out in the Santa Anita Derby and is near the top of anyone’s sophomore rankings. This son of Honor Code has developed nicely for patient trainer John Shirreffs and may have even more in the tank. The colt won wire-to-wire to break maiden, but probably is best from a few lengths off the pace. Hall of Fame jockey Mike Smith is the regular rider and he will need to make some critical decisions in this short field that lacks much early pace. It should be noted that this last out Grade 1 stakes winner normally wouldn’t make his next start in an un-graded $100k stakes race but he needs this outing as a tune-up for the rescheduled September 5 Kentucky Derby. A win isn’t critical. A solid effort and a forward move are the goals.

    6. Cezanne draws the outside in this six-about-to-be-four-horse field and he’ll likely use his speed to clear foes early. He’s unbeaten in two starts—a maiden at six and one-half furlongs and a first-level allowance/optional $40k claiming race at Los Alamitos. He’s talented but maybe not quite as gifted as stablemate #1 Uncle Chuck. His weapon in this heat is his speed and he will use it. An important question is ‘How close can/will #5 Honor A. P. be to #6 Cezanne early?’ If Cezanne is able to clear as expected, he will win.

    Bottom Line: #5 Honor A. P. doesn’t need to win this race and the pace picture doesn’t favor him. #6 Cezanne does need to win to garner Kentucky Derby starting gate points—50-20-10-5. Therefore, the prediction is that #6 Cezanne goes wire-to-wire for the win under jockey Flavien Prat for trainer Bob Baffert.


    Saturday, on the opposite coast, at Saratoga, they will run a trio of Grade 1 races that include some of the nation’s top Thoroughbreds. Midnight Bisou headlines the $500,000 Personal Ensign at one mile and one-eighth; Tom’s de’Etat and Code of Honor top the $750,000 mile and one-eighth Whitney Stakes and No Parole is the big dog in the $300,000 seven-furlong H. Allen Jerkens.

    Here’s a horse-by-horse look at each of these Grade 1 Spa main events:


    Saratoga--Race 5--Personal Ensign

    1. Abounding Joy is a 5-year-old mare that’s at her best right now, winning the Iowa Distaff by more than 5 lengths last out. This is her first graded stakes race and she should find the water much deeper than ever before. Jose Ortiz is aboard this winning-type mare seeking her fifth score in 10 starts.

    2. Motion Emotion was well-beaten by Midnight Bisou last out in the Gr. 2 Fleur de Lis at Churchill. It’s difficult to figure out how she’ll flip the script on that foe in here. She does have some speed and ought to be able to enjoy a rail-skimming trip. That and the presence of jockey irad Ortiz will help.

    3. Midnight Bisou is a legitimate star. She’s won 13 of 21 and over $7.3 million, but her most impressive performance may have come in a three-quarter length losing effort when she fell just short of Maximum Security in the Gr. 1 Saudi Cup. She won 7 of 8 starts last year, with her only loss coming when second behind Blue Prize in the BC Distaff. Last out, the 5-year-old mare romped by over 8 lengths in the Fleur de Lis at Churchill. She’ll be a deservedly short price to win this race under trainer Steve Asmussen’s main man Ricardo Santana, Jr. who’s substituting for Mike Smith. Many runners in this race will have new jockeys because of a restriction at Saratoga that prevents those from outside the local colony to ride there. Midnight Bisou has a first, second and a third in three tries over the Saratoga main track and she’s got three firsts, three seconds and two thirds in eight starts at the one mile and one-eighth distance.

    4. Vexatious delivered a lifetime-best effort last out to be second by two lengths to the accomplished Monomoy Girl in the Gr. 2 one-mile Ruffian at Belmont around one turn. The 6-year-old mare never has been good enough to win a race like this.

    5. Bossy Bride romped home in a $50,000 allowance starter at Belmont last out over a sloppy track. She also completely dominated six foes by more than 13 lengths in a $25k non-winners of two. This Grade 1 test ought to be much more difficult than either of those two triumphs.

    6. Point of Honor is the kind of filly that could pose a problem for #3 Midnight Bisou. She’s a 4-year-old that’s in great form—second by a nose to She’s a Julie in the Gr. 1 Ogden Phipps last out at Belmont. She has been second twice in two starts over the Saratoga main track—in the Grade 1 Coaching Club Oaks and in the Gr. 1 Alabama. She doesn’t have early speed but doesn’t get too far out of it either. Javier Castellano has been aboard her for the majority of her 9 lifetime starts. She has three wins and four seconds. The Black-Eyed Susan winner probably has a Grade 1 with her name on it, but she’ll need to go through #3 Midnight Bisou in here to win.

    Bottom Line: There’s really not much to be gained by wagering on #3 Midnight Bisou, but she looks strictly like the one to beat and should handle this field. #6 Point of Honor is the most likely to make ‘Bisou earn it.


    Saratoga—Race 9—The Whitney

    1. By My Standards needs to find about four and one-half extra lengths in order to turn the tables on #5 Tom’s d’Etat. They ran 1-2 in the one mile and one-eighth Stephen Foster roughly a month ago. Jose Ortiz takes over for Corey Lanerie aboard this 4-year-old colt. The loss to #5 Tom’s d’Etat was only this colt’s second defeat in his last seven races and it snapped a three-race 2020 winning streak. By My Standards has some pace and should be close up on the rail to whatever early action develops. The millionaire’s quality, with five wins and 3 seconds in 10 lifetime starts. He’s also been successful in 3 out of 4 attempts at the distance.

    2. Improbable hails from the Bob Baffert barn and posted the best effort of his 12-race career last out in the Gold Cup at Santa Anita. He was able to take control of the race early, open up and keep going for a three and one-quarter length win over Higher Power. That was his first win since he took the Shared Belief at Del Mar last August. In the start before that, #5 Tom’s d’Etat ran him down by three-quarters of a length in the Oaklawn Mile in April. Irad Ortiz, Jr. takes over aboard Improbable and there’s good reason to expect this guy to be running with the early pace.

    3. Code of Honor loves Saratoga with two wins in as many tries here including a first-out maiden sprint in 2018 and last season’s Gr. 1 Travers. He fired an accurate shot last out in the Gr. 1 Metropolitan Mile, but it wasn’t quite enough firepower to drop red-hot, speedster Vekoma. A mile and one-eighth is a better distance for Code of Honor but in this small 6-horse field there’s concern that there might not be enough pace to set things up for his grinding finish.

    4. Mr. Buff has speed and can be counted on to attempt to use it early under Junior Alvarado. Unfortunately, this New York bred really will need to run much better than he has before against open company to have a say in this one. He will be heard from early and that’s music to #3 Code of Honor’s ears because he could add spice to the early pace. It’s just doubtful he’ll be able to maintain an early advantage against these.

    5. Tom’s d’Etat is among the top older horses in the nation. What’s notable is that he seems to have found the fountain of youth at age 7 and is performing at a consistently high level this year and last. He’s working on a string of four consecutive wins, including the Gr. 1 Clark and Gr. 2 Stephen Foster. This son of Smart Strike has enough speed to sit comfortably off whatever early pace develops. He has won 5 of his last 6 and 11 of 18 overall. He’s banked just over $1.5 million. Oh, and he also loves the Spa with 3 wins in 4 starts there and 6 wins in 9 tries at the distance. He’s strictly the one to beat.

    Bottom Line: #5 Tom’s d’Etat has plenty going for him and will be a deserving favorite. #3 Code of Honor is the major threat. The 4-year-old will run well and, if he gets enough early pace, could win.


    Saratoga—Race 10—H. Allen Jerkens

    1. Hopeful Treasure he’s not fast enough to win this race and will be a big price from the rail.

    2. Eight Rings burst onto the scene in 2019 with three initial notable races. First out, he broke maiden at Del Mar by six and one-quarter lengths going five and one-half furlongs. Next out, heavily favored in the Del Mar Futurity, he ducked in after the start and lost his jock. He then returned triumphantly to win the Gr. 1 American Pharoah at a mile and one-sixteenth at Santa Anita by six lengths. He hasn’t been able to regain that winning form since, showing speed and fading in two races--2019 BC Juvenile and Oaklawn Park’s Bachelor in April. He’ll need to turn the ship around and run much faster than he ever has before.

    3. Sonneman’s maiden and optional claiming $75k wins at Belmont and Gulfstream are respectable, but he’s got to do way more to have a say in this one.

    4. Echo Town is a consistent colt with 3 wins and 2 seconds and a third from 6 starts. He finished second to #6 No Parole and ahead of #7 Shoplifted last out in the Gr. 1 Woody Stephens at Belmont. Don’t think he’s quite fast enough to win this race, but you’ll want his fighting spirit on your side if you’re playing exotics.

    5. Mischevious Alex ran 3 consecutive corkers—won the Parx Juvenile, Gr. 3 Swale at Gufstream and Gr. 3 Gotham at Aqueduct—before finishing fourth last out in the Gr. 1 Woody Stephens against some of these same foes. He’s just about as fast as favorite #6 No Parole on his best day and gets an interesting rider switch to Irad Ortiz. The son of Into Mischief was bumped at the start of his last and does his best running close to the early pace. He’ll pressure #6 No Parole early and should fare better than last time in the lane.

    6. No Parole is one sharp cookie. He’s won his last two sprint races by more than 2 and more than 3 lengths, respectively. Those bring his win total to 5 out of 6—failing only when going two turns in the Gr. 2 Rebel in the slop which certainly is excusable. He’ll be a short price to handle this field, many of which he dusted last out in the Gr. 1 Woody Stephens. There’s a small chance that he could react from his powerful performance, but that scenario should be limited to select backup tickets only.

    7. Shoplifted would need to improve in a hurry to win this race. He was a well-beaten third last out in the common Gr. 1 Woody Stephens. Jockey Jose Oritz bails in favor of next-door neighbor #7 Three Technique and Tyler Gaffalione will ride. This son of Into Mischief has 2 wins in 9 starts but has faced decent competition since breaking his maiden—all stakes, including 4 Grade 1 races. He’s a toss for us.

    8. Three Technique has two wins in as many starts at seven furlongs—one of those a maiden score at Saratoga. He was second in the Smarty Jones going a mile at Oaklawn in the mud. He returned in the slop to be fourth in the Gr. 2 Rebel. Connections wisely have chosen to return to one-turn race at a distance he loves. Still, he’ll need to step forward a bit to have any say in this outcome. His closing ability and route experience suggests he may be decent filler in bottom exotic rungs.

    9. Liam’s Pride’s last race was a major improvement over previous efforts. However, it looks more like a one-off over a sloppy track at 13-1 than a move toward continued improvement. We’ll pass on his chances in here.

    10. Captain Bombastic won the restricted Mike Lee last out going seven furlongs at Belmont. All three of his wins have come against fellow New York-breds. These are a bit more potent. Jockey Luis Saez understandably moves from here to #6 No Parole. Javier Castellano rides. Can’t see him in the picture.

    11. Tap It to Win broke maiden at Saratoga second time out and, most recently, set the pace in the Gr. 1 Belmont Stakes before fading to fifth with a double-digit losing margin. Before that he went wire-to-wire in a first-level allowance race. Often cutback plays from two-turn races back to seven-furlong sprints are interesting. This son of Tapit will need to run faster than he has before and won’t be alone on the lead—the scenario where he earned his top speed figure. He’s fit, though, has a nice outside post position and has a Hall of Fame jockey in John Velazquez to figure things out. May be an exotics play at a decent price.

    Bottom Line: #6 No Parole looks best but there may be a way to turn a short-priced triumph into a few bucks by using others underneath in exoitcs.

    Suggested H. Allen Jerkens Bets

    $2 Trifecta ($24 Total)

    First: #6
    Second: #4 #5, #8, #11
    Third: #4, #5, #8, #11

    $.50 Trifecta ($12 Total)

    First: #5, #6
    Second: #4, #5, #6, #8, #11
    Third: #4, #5, #6, #8, #11

    Race On!

    Race of the Week: Dr. Fager Stakes at Gulfstream Park

    July 29, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

    $100,000 DR. FAGER STAKES AT GULFSTREAM PARK
    Saturday, August 1, 2020
    By Jeremy Plonk

    The Lead:
    Gulfstream Park welcomes August with a bang, presenting a pair of races in the Florida Sire Stakes series. The $100,000 Desert Vixen for the fillies in Race 9 and the $100,000 Dr. Fager in Race 10 match 2-year-olds over 6 furlongs. Both were well supported in the entry box with 10 and 12 participants, respectively. We'll focus on the Dr. Fager division in the Race of the Week, which looks like a stronger betting race of the two.

    Over the years, this series has produced the likes of Hall of Famer Holy Bull and Breeders' Cup champions like Smile, Brave Raj, Big Drama and Awesome Feather.

    ​Field Depth:
    Nine of the 12 juveniles have a single victory on the resume, led by open company maiden special weight scores at Gulfstream from BREEZE ON BY and GATSBY, and at Tampa Bay Downs from VALIANT THOR. With such light resumes -- 16 starts among the dozen entrants -- it's folly to put a ceiling on anyone's class just yet.

    Pace:
    Exactly half of these runners made the first call lead in their most recent start. And with many of them extending some distance to 6 furlongs, expect a fast pace that could wilt those not up to the challenge. A horse with a solid finishing kick should certainly be considered for exotics, though speed on the win end generally remains strong for this age bracket.

    Our Eyes:
    Replay study was the first order of business handicapping this group.

    BREEZE ON BY and LITTLE DEMON race uncoupled for trainer Ralph Nicks. Both are extremely viable in this spot for owners who aim for the Florida Sires Stakes series annually. BREEZE ON BY will be the more ballyooed of the two going in, romping by 6 lengths as the 4-5 favorite in his only start. But he wheels back quickly in 3 weeks' time, squeezing a July 29 short breeze in-between starts. His 87 BRIS late pace figure was best of any in this field and his win was at the 6-furlong trip. He figures to be best among the front-end types, but will take pressure from post 2 and his gallop-out in his debut was just okay. LITTLE DEMON could fly under the radar some. He was runner-up in an open-company maiden special weight June 20 behind next-out allowance winner Papetu, who looks like the circuit's top early juvenile and one who is headed toward the Saratoga Special. LITTLE DEMON was game chasing throughout and did not have his spirit broken when chasing Pepetu in what was a very professional effort in defeat. His owner Jacks or Better Farm has a record 19 wins in the Florida Sire Stakes series all-time.

    SON OF A BEAST will take plenty of betting action after a debut win as the 3-2 favorite for trainer Todd Pletcher. But this son of The Big Beast needed 13.04 the final furlong at the 5-furlong dash trip and was ridden all-out in victory June 24. He did gallop out fine, but his runner-up pursuer returned July 17 and settled for second again at a short price. SON OF A BEAST might be an underlay price to avoid, though respected connections.

    GATSBY returns to Gulfstream after an unsuccessful, but bold, road trip to Churchill for the Grade 3 Bashford Manor Stakes. He was drilled there by leading national 2-year-old Cazadero, but was an April dash winner at Gulfstream in his debut. Jockey Hector Berrios takes over as Emisael Jaramillo opts to ride BREEZE ON BY. Statistically, Berrios has been riding as well as anyone at GP in the past few weeks.

    CASALSA goes off the claim for Mike Maker, joining rookie barnmate LOST LOVER. The former wired maiden claiming $50,000-types in his second start, where he visually didn't overwhelm with up-and-down action to the wire and a weak gallop-out at 5 furlongs. LOST LOVER debuts from a tough rail draw given the full field size. 1/ST BET stats show Maker rarely tries to debut a 2-year-old in stakes company, but did win with 2 of 3 attempts from 2013-'16 with 4-1 and 5-1 propositions. LOST LOVER is the more appealing of the pair.

    VALIANT THOR may be fastest the first quarter-mile. He blitzed a soft crew at Tampa Bay Downs early and late July 1 when never in doubt. The question is: What did he beat? The third-place finisher since returned in maiden claiming company at Gulfstream and mustered only a fourth-place finish. Jockey Ron Allen Jr. pulled off a trio of Gulfstream upsets last week at $15, $27 and $32 prices.

    PALADIO won for $25,000 maiden claiming in his May debut and then was no match for the aforementioned Papetu on July 5 in allowance company, where he was outfinished late by FAMOUS GENT. It's FAMOUS GENT who appeals most of this duo for trainer Eddie Plesa after a disastrous start. He should be well-suited for the additional distance.

    BOCA BOY rolled to victory at 18-1 in his July 17 debut for lower-profile connections. He was a bit green splashing through the slop with his head carried high, but didn't look bad at a price. If it's wet, BOCA BOY moves up. His time was .05 slower than a split division of the same-day race.

    Most Certain Exotics Contender: LITTLE DEMON intrigues after gamely chasing a bear in his only start, and he has posted 4 workouts since the debut to build foundation.

    ​Best Longshot Exotics Contender: MR TINGLES shocked a maiden group at 35-1 on July 17 with a bold move up the rail and held off a 4-way charge to the wire with a good gallop-out. He went .05 faster than BOCA BOY's victory the same day. In a race loaded with early speed, you could envision a similar late attempt, but he'll need some traffic help.

    Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $45 win LITTLE DEMON. $20 exacta part-wheel LITTLE DEMON over BREEZE ON BY and FAMOUS GENT ($40). $5 exacta part-wheel LITTLE DEMON, BREEZE ON BY and FAMOUS GENT over MR TINGLES ($15).

    Saturday, August 1: Saratoga & Del Mar Stakes Picks

    July 30, 2020 | By Dustin Fabian

    It’s another great Saturday for racing. After all, any day where Midnight Bisou, McKinzie, Honor A. P., Tom’s d’Etat and Code of Honor are in the entries is going to be a good one.

    Racing at Saratoga kicks off at 1:10PM ET and their 12-race card includes five stakes races, including the G1 Whitney and G1 Personal Ensign. Out west at Del Mar, the action starts at 5:00PM ET and features the G1 Bing Crosby and the ungraded Shared Belief, a ‘Road to the Kentucky Derby’ Points race.

    here’s a look at Saturday’s big races:

    Saturday Major Stakes Schedule

    3:28PM ET | Saratoga | Personal Ensign S. (G1)
    4:05PM ET | The Meadows (HRN) | Adios S.
    4:14PM ET | Gulfstream | Desert Vixen S.
    4:48PM ET | Gulfstream | Dr. Fager S.
    5:30PM ET | Del Mar | Shared Belief S.
    5:42PM ET | Saratoga | Whitney S. (G1)
    6:18PM ET | Saratoga | H. Allen Jerkens S. (G1)
    6:50PM ET | Saratoga | Bowling Green S. (G2)
    7:22PM ET | Saratoga | Caress S.
    9:30PM ET | Del Mar | Bing Crosby S. (G1)

    Saturday Stakes Picks

    Whitney Stakes (G1, $750K)
    Saratoga (5:42PM ET) | 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

    The downside: only five horses entered. The upside: this group is a combined 14: 9-3-1 this year, showing that losing has not been part of the equation for this quintet. TOM’S D’ETAT is a standout and a perfect 3-for-3 in ’20, including wins over BY MY STANDARDS (Stephen Foster) and IMPROBABLE (Oaklawn Mile). This race goes through him, but I’m pegging IMPROBABLE for the minor upset. When TOM’S D’ETAT beat IMPROBABLE in the Oaklawn Mile, IMPROBABLE was stuck in the outside post (11) which ensured a less-than-ideal trip. His subsequent win in the Hollywood Gold Cup was great and he seems to finally be living up to his potential. CODE OF HONOR is 2-for-2 at Saratoga but may be too pace-dependent in a race that is more tactical.

    1. IMPROBABLE
    2. TOM’S D’ETAT
    3. CODE OF HONR

    H. Allen Jerkens Stakes (G1, $300K)
    Saratoga (6:18PM ET) | 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

    A strong field of 11 is signed on here, including G1 Woody Stephens winner NO PAROLE, G3 Swale winner MISCHEVIOUS ALEX, G1 American Pharoah winner EIGHT RINGS and Belmont Stakes fifth-place finisher, TAP IT TO WIN. I think the pace is going to be quick here, given the inside-drawn EIGHT RINGS, the incredibly quick NO PAROLE, and the presence of MISCHEVIOUS ALEX and TAP IT TO WIN. If they go fast early, THREE TECHNIQUE should have a big shot. He hasn’t raced since March 14 – a big concern – but he has run well at Saratoga and is 4: 2-2-0 in one turn races.

    1. THREE TECHNIQUE
    2. SHOPLIFTED
    3. NO PAROLE

    Shared Belief Stakes ($100K)
    Del Mar, Race 2 (5:30PM ET) | 1 1/16 Miles (Dirt)

    Please note, UNCLE CHUCK is a planned scratch from this race and will instead run in the G1 Travers next Saturday. With that defection in mind, HONOR A. P. is going to be awfully difficult to beat. He handled next-out G1 Haskell winner Authentic with ease in the G1 Santa Anita Derby and continues to show more tactical speed with each race. Bob Baffert’s CEZANNE is a bit of an enigma. Coolmore bought him at auction for $3.6 million and he’s a perfect 2-for-2, but he’s yet to throw a ‘wow’ performance. His maiden and first-level allowance wins were more workmanlike than flashy and he’s going to need to step up to handle HONOR A. P. THOUSAND WORDS ran better in the G3 Los Alamitos Derby but he’s clearly not on par with the highest regarded horses in the Baffert barn.

    1. HONOR A. P.
    2. CEZANNE
    3. THOUSAND WORDS

    Bing Crosby Stakes (G1, $250K)
    Del Mar, Race 10 (9:30PM ET) | 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

    If there’s a time to beat MCKINZIE, I think it’s here. You have to admire what this horse brings to the table, but he might have lost a step (he can still beat this field having lost a step, mind you), but, most importantly, there’s no evidence to suggest he’s a true sprinter. He has excelled in stretch-out sprints (7 furlongs and one-turn miles), but what happens when he runs in a six-furlong dash? It’s to be determined and I don’t want to pay 4/5 odds to find out. I’ll take my chances with COLLUSION ILLUSION, a three-year-old that has won both races this year. He’s a perfect 4-for-4 in sprint races, a perfect 2-for-2 at Del Mar and should take advantage of a good setup from just behind the pacesetters. He should get the jump on MCKINZIE. Can he hold him off? I’ll take much nicer odds to find out.

    1. COLLUSION ILLUSION
    2. MCKINZIE
    3. P R RADIO STAR

    Saturday, August 1: Eddie Olczyk's Spot Plays

    July 31, 2020

    It’s great to have racing back at so many of North America’s premier venues and it’s hard not to get excited anytime we’ve got an afternoon at Saratoga and an evening at Del Mar.

    Here are my picks for six races on Saturday, including the day’s marquee event, the G1 Whitney at Saratoga.

    Stay safe out there and I’ll see you at the track soon!

    Saratoga, Race 4 (2:51PM ET) - #8 MATTY’S MARAUDER (30/1)
    Maiden Special Weight – 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

    Bombs away! Several enticing angles make this horse stand out to me. He’s cutting back from route to sprint and going from turf to dirt. He showed speed and faded last time, but maybe this go around he’ll try to come from off the pace. He’s a solid underneath horse and we should get every bit of 25/1 on him.

    Saratoga, Race 9 (5:42PM ET) - #3 CODE OF HONOR (5/2)
    G1 Whitney Stakes – 1 1/8 Miles (Dirt)

    They’ll all have to beat Tom’s d’Etat, who is just in phenomenal form for Al Stall Jr. That said, I thought CODE OF HONOR ran an impressive race to close and finish 3rd in the G1 Met Mile on July 4 at Belmont. I have upgraded that performance a bit since it came over what I believe was a speed-favoring track. He should get pace to run at in the Whitney as Mr. Buff and Improbable are both ‘forward’ horses and, like many of us, CODE OF HONOR loves the ‘Spa. He won the G1 Travers here last summer.

    Saratoga, Race 10 (6:18PM ET) - #8 THREE TECHNIQUE (6/1)
    G1 H. Allen Jerkens Stakes – 7 Furlongs (Dirt)

    There is plenty of speed signed on in this year’s Allen Jerkens and THREE TECHNIQUE (hopefully) gets back to a dry track after his last three races were competed over surfaces with varying degrees of wetness. I think he is a true one-turn horse – he flattened around two turns – and he broke his maiden here last summer. I am looking for Jose Ortiz to stalk and pounce on the leaders for what is hopefully a winning run.

    Saratoga, Race 11 (6:50PM ET) - #4 DOT MATRIX (9/2)
    G2 Bowling Green Stakes – 1 3/8 Miles (Turf)

    Draw a line through his last race in the G1 Manhattan where a pedestrian early pace forced him closer to the front than he seems to prefer. Plus, the horses in that race are a little better than the horses he faces today. With a little more pace expected here, he should sit a truer trip and have more punch down the lane. Getting Joel Rosario back (who piloted him to a pair of runner-up efforts in their last two races together) doesn’t hurt.

    Del Mar, Race 5 (7:00PM ET) - #7 DREAMS OF VALOR (4/1)
    Allowance – 1 Mile (Dirt)

    Yes, he’s winless on dirt. And yes, he’s stuck with an outside post. But his last couple of dirt races were pretty good and I like the fact that Craig Dollase set him up for this route race with two solid sprint efforts. Let’s let Tizamagician and Nolo Contesto take the money and hopefully we get 5/1 on DREAMS OF VALOR.

    Del Mar, Race 10 (9:30PM ET) - #9 COLLUSION ILLUSION (9/2)
    G1 Bing Crosby Stakes – 6 Furlongs (Dirt)

    With McKinzie an expected scratch, this race is wide-open and the best of this bunch just might be the outside-drawn three-year-old, COLLUSION ILLUSION. I love his outside draw and the fact that he’s 4-for-4 in sprint races and undefeated with Flavien Prat in the saddle is a feather in his cap. Taking on older horses is a big test, but I think he’s up for it.

    By Al Cimaglia
    It is Adios Day at the Meadows Racetrack which is the biggest card of the year at the Washington Pennsylvania oval. The Super Hi-5 will have a $50,000 guaranteed pool and it will be contested in Race 15 which is the Delvin Miller Adios Pace with a $375,000 purse. The sequence will have a mandatory payout plus a $50,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

    My two key horses probably won't have the lead initially but could benefit from a speed battle by others trying to get the top. My choice to win the Adios is #2-Capt Midnight and #1-Later Dudes will be used in the 2-3 slots in the Hi-5. If the #1 goes off at a nice price and #6, #8, or #9 hits the board the Hi-5 could pay nicely. That could be the case as long as Capt Midnight comes up with a big effort to take top honors. A solid payout for the Hi-5 hinges on the program chalk #3-Catch The Fire and the 3rd morning line favorite #4-The Greek Freak not finishing at the top of the ticket.

    Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

    Race 15-Delvin Miller Adios Pace-Purse $375,000

    1-Later Dudes (8-1)-Here is my key to getting a price involved in the Hi-5. This lightly raced 3-year old has started on the rail in the last 2. He might be overlooked and could go off higher than the 8-1 morning line. Dave Miller sat patiently in the Elim, pulled the plugs at the top of the lane, and then rallied nicely for 2nd. Many will say Sandbetweenmytoes, who sat in the pocket, would have finished 2nd if not for breaking. That will be another reason this Brian Brown pupil may not get bet and could provide some juice to the Hi-5. Miller could duck, get a good seat and rally late to hit the board at a nice price. This looks like a spot to be driven more aggressively and the colt did close last week in 26.1. He's learning and getting better. Miller will keep him in the hunt.

    2-Capt Midnight (4-1)-Barring a bad trip the Capt looks like the winner and should improve in its 2nd Meadows start. Catch the Fire went to the half last week in .55 and the pace should be quicker today. The Capt was hung 1st over the last 3/8's and did pace the 2nd half in a snappy 53.3 to fall short by a head. He finished well and this time McCarthy could wait for the dust to settle and pull earlier and roll to the top. Drawing inside of the #3 and #4 won't hurt and not sure the 4-1 morning line holds up, but there is value at those odds.

    3-Catch The Fire (3-1)-Not casting shade on this son of Captaintreacherous but he is not going to get the same kind of respect as in last week's Elimination. This colt may need to be leading at the top of the lane to win and that may not be the case this time. If Wilder goes for the lead off the gate, which will probably be the case, others could be committed to do the same. So, it will be a question of how much gas will be left after the 3/4's and my guess is the pressure applied early will cost the program chalk.

    4-The Greek Freak (5-1)-This has been a very good year for the Freak. He was gelded after going winless in 9-starts in 2019. Now the Burke trainee is riding a 4-race win streak, but he had an even easier path to an Elimination win than Catch The Fire. The Freak got on the engine and went to the half in .56 and was unchallenged for almost the entire mile. This is another nice-looking colt but probably a notch below #2 and #3.

    5-No Lou Zing (7-1)-Takter trainee has raced only 8-times and in my view, there is no value at the program odds of 7-1. Looks like a minor player and hasn't shown the same type of speed as others. The lack of seasoning, plus the pilot may not be in the same class as others drivers in this field works against Lou.

    6-Sweet Truth (12-1)-Sweet Lou 3-year-old appears to be getting better but is in tall cotton today. Not sure how Gingras can put him in play but wouldn't rule out for a piece of the Hi-5.

    7-Chief Mate (20-1)-This is not a win candidate in my mind and will need a close-up seat to hit the board. But could be in the hunt for the bottom of the Hi-5 ticket, but will probably need some luck to finish any higher.

    8-Captain Barbossa (8-1)-This is a very nice colt, and is in a similar position as #9. Dunn will need to work a great trip to hit the board from this post and winning seems to not be in the cards. But could add some juice to the Hi-5 payout if finishes in the top three.

    9-Elver Hanover (10-1)-This is another fine colt, but this post most likely crushed any chance for a win. Page may blast out and the question will be at what cost. This is probably the best horse of the three Burke has entered. So, if the trip goes well and lands a good seat or follows live cover, Elver could spice up the Hi-5.

    0.20 Hi-5
    2/1/3,4,6,8,9/3,4,5,6,7,8,9/3,4,5,6,7,8,9=$30.00

    0.20 Hi-5
    2/3,4,6,8,9/1/3,4,5,6,7,8,9/3,4,5,6,7,8,9=$30.00


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    Rotation #979
    Rangers -125 over Giants

    Rangers/Giants Over 8.5 runs
    Lyles/Smyly
    The Giants have been surprisingly decent with not the most talented of lineups and a new manager. This is a team that is getting decent hitting the last few games and will take advantage again of nice winds blowing out to center. The Rangers are off to a slow start, but do have power against left handed pitching. Both teams are on their number 4 starter so I believe it favors the offense. Texas needs to pick it up before they get too far in a hole. This is a great spot to play side and total. Take the Rangers and the Over.
    NBA
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    Rotation #723
    Sixers -5 over Pacers

    The Sixers have stayed with the same core group of players this season which helps when seasons get put on hold like we have seen. The Pacers have all kinds of injuries and have not played together as a unit as much as Philly has. This is an undersized Indiana team. Philly can really take advantage of their size advantage here. Take the Sixers.
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    Got a text message from Al Rossi Sports Investments
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    Saturday, Aug. 1

    San Jose vs. Minnesota (7:00 p.m. ET)

    Money line: Draw +265

    Total goals: Under 2.5

    Likely score: San Jose 1, Minnesota 1
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    The Spot Player

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    5% Tampa bay rays -1.5 runs
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    Rk Sports Services Free Sports Picks
    1. NSA(The Legend) Baseball – Astros -160
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    3. VegasSI.com Baseball – Yankees over 10
    4. Vegas Line Crushers Baseball – Cubs -160
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    Dustin Hawkins

    Aug 01 '20, 1:10 PM in 48m
    MLB | CIN vs DET
    Play on: UNDER 9 -113

    1 Dimer on Reds vs Tigers under 9 -113




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    Anyone have fezzik 3* nba?
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    Quote Originally Posted by ConleyPicks View Post
    Cappers Access

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    Cappers has Rockies, NOT Padres
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    Quote Originally Posted by engage View Post
    Cappers has Rockies, NOT Padres
    Whoops that what was posted on investwithsports
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    MLB: San Francisco Giants ML @ 2.00/+100 (3 Units)


    MLB: Cleveland Indians 1H ML @ 2.00/+100 (3 Units)


    MLB: Los Angeles Angels TT Ov3.5 @ 1.80/-125 (3 Units)
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