Thursday Service Play Thread 08/06/2020

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BuzzKill

BuzzKill

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Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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ConleyPicks

ConleyPicks

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Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
YESTERDAY 7:41 PM

L.A. CLIPPERS -4
L.A. CLIPPERS @ DALLAS | 8/06 | 6:30 PM EDT
My projection model loves the Clippers as a short chalk Thursday against the Mavericks. I've got Los Angeles winning this game by an average of 12 points and covering the number a whopping 70 percent of the time. History suggests this is a great spot: The Clippers are on a 4-1 ATS run in the series and also have gone 21-6 ATS following a straight-up loss.

29-7 IN LAST 36 NBA PICKS | +2128
21-12 IN LAST 33 DAL ATS PICKS | +804

11-4 IN LAST 15 LAC ATS PICKS | +656
 
ConleyPicks

ConleyPicks

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Strike Point Sports

​PGA Tour 8-Unit Play Adam Scott (+120) over Matt Fitzpatrick
 
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ConleyPicks

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Vernon Croy

8-Unit Play - #7949 Webb Simpson -120 over Hideki Matsuyama for the PGA Championship Tournament
 
ConleyPicks

ConleyPicks

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VEGASSI
THURSDAY 8/6/2020
FREE MLB PICKS
Reds @ Indians
TIME: 6:10 PM EST
PICK: UNDER 8
 
ConleyPicks

ConleyPicks

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Ricky Tran

Aug 06 '20, 10:38 PM in 15h
NHL | Flames vs Jets
Play on: UNDER 5½ -125

Ricky's 8* play on under 5.5
Key Angle: It's important to remember that Ricky never makes a bet on any game based on just one angle. In order to make the grade, all his premium picks must meet several important criteria. He doesn't share all his secrets within his analysis, instead he chooses to reveal only the angle that he feels is the most significant. Here in this game the recent history of these two teams is particularly significant.
Key Trends:
- The under is 4-1-1 in the Jets last six games as an underdog.
- The under is 3-1-1 in the Flames last five games as a favorite.
- The under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
The verdict: This looks like another inflated total.
 
ConleyPicks

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MLB public betting, line movement for August 6
Patrick Everson

Aaron Judge has been on fire so far in the shortened season, with seven homers through 11 games. Judge and the Yankees are -151 favorites against the Phillies on Thursday night.

MLB betting odds hit the board and drew some early dollars for Thursday’s matchups. The Yankees wrap up their four-game home set against the Phillies, while the defending American League champion Astros aim to avoid falling back to .500.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s contests.

MLB line movement

Aaron Judge has already pounded out seven home runs through 11 games, helping the Yankees to a 9-2 start, including a split of Wednesday’s doubleheader against the Phillies. New York opened -155 at Caesars books for a 6:05 p.m. ET first pitch, with Philadelphia +145 late Wednesday evening, and the line moved to -151/+141 within a few minutes.

The Astros gave up two touchdowns Wednesday in absorbing a 14-7 shelling from the Diamondbacks. For Thursday’s 7:07 p.m. ET start, Houston opened -133 and dropped to -123 within about an hour Wednesday night, with Arizona +113. And the always-popular Cubs, out of the gate with a 9-2 record, opened -170 and dialed back a tick to -166 against the struggling Royals (+153) in another 7:07 p.m. ET game.

MLB public betting

In the Consensus, no team is getting more early love than the Cubs, landing 85 percent of the picks against the Royals. But the Yankees aren’t far behind at 82 percent against the Phillies.
 
ConleyPicks

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NBA public betting line movement for August 6
Patrick Everson

James Harden and the Rockets take on the Western Conference-leading Lakers on Thursday night in the NBA Bubble. FanDuel Sportsbook opened the Lakers -2 and quickly moved to -1.

NBA betting odds are on the board and drawing dollars for Thursday’s six-game docket. The marquee matchup in the NBA Bubble is the nightcap between the Rockets and the Lakers, with LeBron James and Co. playing the second of a back-to-back.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s matchups. Covers will update this action report with NBA sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the day.

NBA line movement

The Lakers have already clinched the West’s No. 1 seed, and it showed Wednesday in a 105-86 loss to the Thunder. FanDuel, among limited sportsbooks posting the Lakers-Rockets line Wednesday night, opened Los Angeles -2 and quickly moved to -1 for a 9 p.m. ET tipoff.

Meanwhile, the Bucks look to rebound from the biggest point-spread upset in the NBA since April 1993. Milwaukee was an 18.5-point favorite against Brooklyn on Tuesday and lost outright, 119-106. The Bucks opened -8.5 against the Heat for a 4 p.m. ET matchup.

And the Trail Blazers continue their charge to make the playoffs, sitting just one game behind eighth-place Memphis in the West. Interestingly, FanDuel oddsmakers opened Portland a 3.5-point favorite against Denver, and the line moved to -4 late Wednesday night for an 8 p.m. ET clash.
 
ConleyPicks

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NHL public betting, line movement, sharp money for August 6
Patrick Everson

Auston Matthews and the Maple Leafs take on the Blue Jackets in Game 3 of an Eastern Conference qualifying-round series Thursday. Caesars sportsbooks have Toronto a -155 favorite.

NHL betting odds hit the board for a quintet of Thursday games, as the revamped NHL playoffs resume in the double bubble. The schedule includes a couple of noteworthy matchups in round-robin playoff seeding, along with Game 3 of the Toronto Maple Leafs-Columbus Blue Jackets best-of-5 qualifying series.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on NHL opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s contests.

NHL line movement

The Maple Leafs and Blue Jackets collide in a pivotal Game 3, with the winner gaining a 2-1 upper hand in the battle to advance further into the postseason. Toronto, which notched a 3-0 win in Game 2 Tuesday, opened a -155 favorite at Caesars books for this 8 p.m. ET puck drop, with Columbus +140.

There was no line movement as of late Wednesday night.

In Eastern Conference round-robin play, the Washington Capitals and Philadelphia Flyers each play their second game in the bubble. Washington is a -120 favorite and Philadelphia a +105 underdog, with no line movement yet for a 4 p.m. ET faceoff. And in the Western Conference round-robin, the Vegas Golden Knights opened -115 to the St. Louis Blues’ even money, with that line stagnant so far for a 6:30 p.m. ET start.

NHL public betting

Consensus shows solid early backing of the Maple Leafs, drawing 70 percent of the picks, and Blues, at 63 percent. The Caps-Flyers contest is much closer to two-way play, with Washington at 56 percent and Philadelphia at 44.
 
ConleyPicks

ConleyPicks

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WNBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, August 6

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SEATTLE (4 - 1) vs. ATLANTA (2 - 3) - 8/6/2020, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 3-3 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-3 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CONNECTICUT (0 - 5) vs. DALLAS (2 - 3) - 8/6/2020, 8:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 5-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 5-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 6 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (4 - 1) vs. PHOENIX (3 - 2) - 8/6/2020, 10:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 6-1 against the spread versus PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 6-1 straight up against PHOENIX over the last 3 seasons
6 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

sailfish

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Ian Cameron

Winnipeg Jets +141
Winnipeg-Calgary over 5.5 +116


Half unit plays:
Vancouver +108 (29) (Source: Pinnacle)
Vancouver/Minnesota Over 5.5 +114 (30) (Source: BetOnline)
St. Louis -102 (32) (Source: Pinnacle)
Toronto/Columbus Over 5.5 +123 (24) (Source: Pinnacle)
 

sailfish

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Brian Bitler

9* MLB Investment

Blue Jays

Nate Pearson looked serviceable in his first outing where he went 5 innings and gave up no runs against the Nationals. Touki Toussaint got hit around in his start a little bit and I believe the Jays are a hungry young team that we still are getting very good value with early on this season. Jays sitting at 4-5 need wins and need them in a hurry in this ultra compressed 60 game season. Invest 9 units on the Jays here rotation #915
 
ConleyPicks

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GAMEDAY NETWORK

FREE NHL WINNER 8/6/20
Golden Knights vs Blues
Time: 6:35 PM EST
Free Pick: Golden Knights -113
 
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