Friday Service Play Thread 08/07/2020

BuzzKill · Aug 2, 2020

Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

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BuzzKill · Aug 7, 2020

Newsletters - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=307&p=13209252&viewfull=1#post13209252

ConleyPicks · Aug 7, 2020

Red Dog Sports

Aug 07 '20, 3:00 PM in 16h
Soccer | Real Madrid vs Manchester City
Play on: Manchester City -139 at pinnacle

Manchester City -139
Real Madrid 1
Man City 2

ConleyPicks · Aug 7, 2020

NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
THE LEGEND!
FREE MLB PICKS
Astros @ Athletics
TIME: 9:10 PM EST
PICK: UNDER 9

ConleyPicks · Aug 7, 2020

Weekly Bankroll Builder: August 7 Stronach 5 Play

August 5, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau

Weekly Bankroll Builder: August 7 Stronach 5 Play

Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, which once again has a 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some
prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.

*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update. ***

Leg 1: Laurel Park R6 (3:21 ET) – 2yo MSW at 5 furlongs

A seemingly tough, non-descript 2yo dash kicks off the sequence, though at least we have the benefit of being able to watch the tote to see who’s live and taking money, and who isn’t, which can often be a key indicator in these events. And that becomes even more imperative here, as those who have run don’t seem to be any great shakes, which means the firster #1 DEPOSITORY (10-1) has to hit hard off a slew of encouraging works for Lynch, who is a stiff 22% on debut and 28% with 2yos. With that being said, experience is a big edge at this time of the year with 2yo, so Lynch’s other runner, #4 SAN ANTONE (5-2), who was 2nd in both starts at Del Park, along with #9 ALWAYSINAHURRY (7-2), and #7 DON’T DARE ME (7-2), who were also 2nd in their respective debuts up in Wilmington, also merit strong consideration.

Pk5 A horses: 1,4,9,7 (listed in order of preference)

I was tempted to put both #8 ALPHA QUEUE (10-1) and #10 KAKE’SCHARMINGBOY (8-1) on the top line, as they debut for strong connections, but with Gaudet at just 8% with firsters, and Matz a slightly better 11%, I’ll it’s best to limit their use to a secondary role, unless the tote screams ready.

Pk5 B horses: 8,10

Potential B add-ins: #5 Gallant George (15-1), #6 Ladneedsahandler (12-1)

Leg 2: Gulfstream Park R8 (3:40 ET) – 3up AOC (25k/N1X) at 5 furlongs (turf)

Toss the two-turn dud last time and #5 FRENCHMAN STREET (5-2) is close to a single, as his turf sprint form against much better is stellar for Maker, and this attack post and his tactical speed are going to make him mighty tough to beat—if that last didn’t throw him for a loop. If it did, just maybe #10 SOVEREIGN WARRIOR (8-1) can take advantage, as he was a very sharp and close 4th in a stakes last time, will be close throughout, and could be four times the price as well.

Pk5 A horses: 5,10

I’m going to go it alone on the top line, as ‘Street looks close to a single, but I’m also using ‘Warrior equally, so I don’t think it’s prudent to add to the ticket, when I have two very strong opinions on the top line.

Pk5 B horses: NONE

Potential B add-ins: #9 Cable Channel (4-1), #7 Tench (6-1), #2 Go Gone Gone (3-1)

Leg 3: Laurel Park R7 (3:59 ET) – 3upfm 5k N3L* at 1-mile

This one won’t make things easy on your bankroll, as there are countless runners you could use, yet all of them are impossible to trust off class drops and mixed form. I’m going to use as many as I can, between the two slots, since I have no strong opinion and want as much coverage as I can cram in. The list starts with #8 WIN THEN GRIN (4-1), a Charles Town invader who was facing allowance runners at two turns and held her own, and has a pair of local wins on her resume, so she should have some foundation for this one-turn mile, over a track she seems to like. If things get too hot early then both #10 PRINCESS GEORGIA (10-1) and #9 ORTINOLA (6-1) will be herd from late, as both drop in class, and the former should like getting back to the dirt after a no-show on turf last time.

Pk5 A horses: 8,10,9

I’ll slide in the speed of #7 SI MAMACITA (9-2), who may be fastest of all in a race that has a few pace players, but none that can match her early foot, and rising in class off a N2L win and being the fresh new face here might now be a bad thing, though she almost blew a 4-length late lead, which gives cause for concern. I don’t know what to make of #3 CALINAS SONG (6-1), who has been in for a much higher tag sprinting lately at Del Park but didn’t do much running, but with Gonzalez calling the shots I think her presence here is noteworthy, and it’s not like she needs to freak to be a threat either.

Pk5 B horses: 7,3

Potential B add-ins: #2 Carousel Magic (6-1), #1 Simmard Shenanigan (15-1), #5 Hand Rail, #11 Hoss Kitten (12-1)

Leg 4: Gulfstream Park R9 (4:14 ET) – 3up 10k MCL at 1-mile

I’d like to think we can lock this up by using #8 ATCAPOTE (4-1) and #9 TONY SMALL (2-1), as they simply seem a lot better than a slow bunch, are best on figures, and, with each being 0-for-10 lifetime, they still haven’t quite checked off the lifetime maiden box just yet. As for who I’m actually taking on top, I’ll take the former for the small surprise, if only because he’s a better price and is proven going this far.

Pk5 A horses: 8,9

The next logical runner is #6 MOZANO (7-2), who is tactical enough to get the jump on the top pair and has been in the money in three straight, though he also seems a few lengths them, hence I’m using him underneath.

Pk5 B horses: 6

Potential B add-ins: NONE

Leg 5: Laurel Park R8 (4:32 ET) – 3up AOC (35k/N2X) at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)

I don’t want to quite call this a match race between #4 PAGLIACCI (3-1) and #6 TEMPT ME TWICE (7-2), but it sure looks that way on paper, as the former was 2nd, and a half-length ahead of the latter, in a race four of the eight entered come out of on 7/15 at Del Park. And once again it looks like ‘Twice’s tactical speed gives him a big edge over the closing kick of Pagliacci, so I’ll play it that way, though I’ll use them both equally, since the margin is a slim one.

Pk5 A horses: 6,4

The only true alternative I can see is #1 ALLTHEWAY TO CAIRO (12-1), who was 5th behind the top pair last time, but only 2 ½ lengths behind ‘Twice, and considering it was his turf debut too, he’s eligible to run better here, though the rail offers no bargains.

Pk5 B horses: 1

Potential B add-ins: #7 Sky Magician (6-1), #8 Fort Fortitude (7-2), #5 Cuestion de Tiempo (9-2)

The tickets:
Main Ticket: 1,4,9,7 with 5,10 with 8,10,9 with 8,9 with 6,4 = $96
Leg 1 B Backup: 8,10 with 5,10 with 8,10,9 with 8,9 with 6,4 = $48
Leg 3 B Backup: 1,4,9,7 with 5,10 with 7,3 with 8,9 with 6,4 = $64
Leg 4 B Backup: 1,4,9,7 with 5,10 with 8,10,9 with 6 with 6,4 = $48
Leg 5 B Backup: 1,4,9,7 with 5,10 with 8,10,9 with 8,9 with 1 = $48

ConleyPicks · Aug 7, 2020

MLB public betting, line movement, sharp money for August 7
Patrick Everson

Oakland rides a six-game winning streak into a weekend series against Houston. Caesars opened the host Athletics slim -106 favorites, with Zack Greinke and the Astros -104 in Friday's game.

MLB betting odds are up for the Friday slate, and sportsbooks are seeing action on the opening numbers. Among the highlights: the defending AL Champion Astros traveling to face the streaking Athletics, winners of six in a row and leaders of the AL West.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s contests.

MLB line movement

The A’s sit 9-4 and 2.5 games ahead of the Astros heading into the 9:10 p.m. ET opener of a three-game weekend set. Caesars opened Oakland a favorite, but by the slimmest of margins at -106, because Houston (-104) is sending out Zack Greinke.

The Yankees are 9-4 and atop the AL East entering a four-game road set against the Rays, including a Saturday doubleheader. Friday’s 6:40 p.m. ET start is another tight opener at Caesars, with New York -106 and Tampa Bay -104.

And the Cardinals return after eight days off due to COVID concerns within the team. St. Louis hosts the Cubs, who are out to a 10-3 start and already four games up in the NL Central. Caesars held off on posting this game Thursday night for an 8:15 p.m. ET first pitch.

MLB public betting

The Consensus indicates Greinke and the Astros are much more appealing than the surging A’s, even with Oakland sending out Chris Bassitt, who’s 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in two starts. Houston was drawing 69 percent of picks in the Consensus on Thursday night.

The Yankees weren’t quite as popular early in the Consensus, but were landing 63 percent of picks against the Rays

ConleyPicks · Aug 7, 2020

Your free brandXsports.com winner
for August 7, 2020 is the Boston Red Sox on the ML

ryangenero · Aug 7, 2020

Football Jesus FREE pick for FRI NBA , is Raptors -pts, ( 21-8 since July 1st ) says he will have best bets later

ConleyPicks · Aug 7, 2020

NHL public betting, line movement for August 7
Patrick Everson

Max Domi and the 12th-seeded Canadiens can knock out the fifth-seeded Penguins in Friday's Game 4 of their qualifying-round series. However, Caesars has Pittsburgh a -160 favorite.

NHL betting odds hit the board for Friday’s six qualifying-round games, as the revamped NHL playoffs resume in the double bubble. Among the noteworthy matchups is Penguins vs. Canadiens, with Pittsburgh playing for its postseason life in Game 4 of the best-of-5 series.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on NHL opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s contests.

NHL line movement

Pittsburgh blew a 3-1 second-period lead in Game 3 against Montreal, ultimately losing 4-3 as the Canadiens took a 2-1 series lead. Still, Caesars books opened Penguins -160/Canadiens +145 in a 4 p.m. ET faceoff, and there was no line movement Thursday night.

The Blue Jackets notched a 4-3 overtime victory against the Maple Leafs on Thursday, and there’s no rest as the two teams meet in Game 4 Friday. Columbus can clinch the series in this 8 p.m. ET puck drop. Caesars held off on posting the moneyline Thursday night.

The Blackhawks can also advance with a Game 4 victory over the Oilers. However, Caesars pegged Edmonton a -125 favorite, with Chicago +110 in a 6:45 p.m. ET meeting.

NHL public betting

Consensus can often help discern where the public is, and it appears the desperate Penguins are the play, getting 67 percent of early picks. Oilers-Blackhawks was a little closer to two-way play, with Edmonton seeing 59 percent of early picks in Consensus.

ConleyPicks · Aug 7, 2020

NBA public betting, line movement for August 7
Patrick Everson

Pascal Siakam and the Raptors aim to lock down the East's No. 2 seed in a Friday night battle against the Celtics. The SuperBook opened Toronto -3, and that line held steady Thursday night.

NBA betting odds are posted and seeing money for Friday’s six-game slate. The marquee matchup is the day’s final game, an Eastern Conference clash between the Boston Celtics and the defending NBA champion Toronto Raptors.

The SuperBook at Westgate provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s matchups.

NBA line movement

Toronto is a perfect 3-0 SU and ATS in the NBA Bubble and aims to seal the Eastern Conference’s No. 2 seed Friday night. The SuperBook opened the Raptors a 3-point favorite over the Celtics, and there was no line movement Thursday night for a 9 p.m. ET tipoff.

The Grizzlies are clinging to the eighth seed in the West, but face a tough chore against the Thunder, who are coming off a 105-86 rout of the Lakers on Wednesday. Oklahoma City opened a 3.5-point favorite and moved to -4.5 late Thursday evening for a 4 p.m. ET start.

NBA public betting

Consensus in the Celtics-Raptors clash indicates a solid preference for Toronto, which was drawing 65 percent of picks Thursday night. The preference is even greater for the Thunder, landing 72 percent of Covers Consensus picks against the Grizzlies.

sailfish · Aug 7, 2020

[h=2]McInnis Hockey[/h]

3% PL Situational Play
Game:(51) New York Islanders at (52) Florida Panthers
Date/Time: Aug 7 2020 12:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: New York Islanders -1.5 (+195)

ConleyPicks · Aug 7, 2020

Mike Barner
NBA SPECIALIST
8:41 AM
OKLAHOMA CITY -4.5
OKLAHOMA CITY @ MEMPHIS | 8/07 | 4:00 PM EDT
It’s been an ugly restart to the season for the Grizzlies, who have lost all four of their games. They didn’t exactly play any world beaters, either, considering their losses came against the Trail Blazers, Spurs, Pelicans and Jazz. Their last two losses were both by at least nine points and they are shorthanded now with Jaren Jackson Jr. (knee) out. Meanwhile, the Thunder are coming off of a very impressive 19-point win against the Lakers on Wednesday. They have a stellar 25-9 record ATS at home or at a neutral location, so I’ll take them to cover once again.

105-63-3 IN LAST 171 NBA ATS PICKS | +3570
12-2 IN LAST 14 OKC ATS PICKS | +981

12-7 IN LAST 19 MEM ATS PICKS | +429

Sam Quinn
NBA JOURNALIST
8:30 AM
OKLAHOMA CITY -4.5
OKLAHOMA CITY @ MEMPHIS | 8/07 | 4:00 PM EDT
The Thunder have the best net rating in the bubble at +9.8. The Grizzlies have the fifth-worst at -5.8. The Thunder probably aren't quite as good as their shellacking of the Lakers suggests, and the Grizzlies probably aren't as bad as their 0-4 record suggests, but these are two teams trending in decidedly different directions, and a 4.5-point line is extremely generous considering the net rating gap of more than 15 points. The Grizzlies are without arguably their best player in Jaren Jackson Jr. They are also without the backup point guard that led the bench lineups that were actually winning them games before the shutdown in Tyus Jones. The Grizz are overvalued based on their regular season, and now is the time to take advantage.

16-9 IN LAST 25 NBA PICKS | +604
3-0 IN LAST 3 OKC ATS PICKS | +300

Tim Doyle
BIG TEN BALLER
8:27 AM
OKLAHOMA CITY -185
OKLAHOMA CITY @ MEMPHIS | 8/07 | 4:00 PM EDT
Full disclosure: I have bet against Memphis every game in this bubble, and we have to keep riding the wave. Losing Jaren Jackson Jr destroys this team. All signs point to the Grizzlies losing this 8th spot in the West. OKC has the best ATS in the NBA this year. This actually looks too easy, but that’s why I won’t lay points. Roll Thunder.

21-10-1 IN LAST 32 NBA PICKS | +1184
3-0 IN LAST 3 MEM ML PICKS | +301

Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
12:00 AM
OKLAHOMA CITY -3.5
OKLAHOMA CITY @ MEMPHIS | 8/07 | 4:00 PM EDT
The Grizzlies are in a free-fall and they just lost Jaren Jackson to a torn meniscus. Dating back to before the shutdown, Memphis has lost 11 of its last 15 straight-up. While OKC continues to play without Dennis Schroder, the Thunder are playing great defense and Chris Paul is elevating them. Lay it.

46-34-1 IN LAST 81 NBA PICKS | +864
39-24 IN LAST 63 MEM ATS PICKS | +1286

37-25 IN LAST 62 OKC ATS PICKS | +1010

ConleyPicks · Aug 7, 2020

SDQL
OVER 8.5
COLORADO @ SEATTLE | 8/07 | 9:40 PM EDT
9:07 AM
The Rockies are 9-0 OU since May 14, 2018 in the first game of a series with no rest coming off a home game in which they scored in, at most, two separate innings. The average final score in these nine games has been 8.89 runs to 6.44 runs. The Mariners send Yusei Kikuchi to the bump tonight, and he has produced nothing but Overs in games that the oddsmakers rate close to a toss-up. Seattle is 14-0 OU in Kikuchi’s career when he starts and the line is within 30 cents of a pick'em. We are on the Over.

14-4 IN LAST 18 MLB PICKS | +941

HOUSTON +101
HOUSTON @ OAKLAND | 8/07 | 9:10 PM EDT
9:04 AM
In Zack Greinke’s last start, the Astros took a 4-3 lead into the bottom of the ninth, but lost 5-4 in extras. Houston has picked up its pitcher in this spot, going 10-0 SU in a series opener with no rest when blowing a lead in its starter's last start and lost. The Athletics, on the other hand, are 0-7 SU in the first game of a home series with no rest when their line is within 20 cents of pick'em, and they are off a home game in which they had more strikeouts than hits. Houston has the value at this price.

13-3 IN LAST 16 MLB ML PICKS | +956

MINNESOTA -153
MINNESOTA @ KANSAS CITY | 8/07 | 8:05 PM EDT
9:01 AM
The Royals are 0-14 SU at home off a home game when they blew a lead in their starters' last start and lost. Note that the Royals are 0-14 on the run line in this spot and they have lost by an average of 4.93 runs per game. Minnesota has been tough in series openers, going 14-0 SU in the first game of a series with no rest when they are coming off a game as a road favorite and facing a team that has a worse record. Also note that the Twins are 13-0 on the run line in this spot and they have won by an average of 5.57 runs. The Twins are the play.

13-3 IN LAST 16 MLB ML PICKS | +956
5-0 IN LAST 5 KC ML PICKS | +500

WASHINGTON -177
BALTIMORE @ WASHINGTON | 8/07 | 6:05 PM EDT
9:00 AM
The Orioles are 0-18 SU as an underdog in the first game of a road series with no rest when coming off a game as an underdog in which they allowed six-plus runs. Washington is 11-0 SU as a home 140+ favorite after a game in which it did not hit a home run, 15-0 SU as a 130+ favorite after drawing one or fewer walks, and 15-0 SU as a favorite by more than 125 off a home game in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs, winning by an average of 4.80 runs per game. We are laying the price.

13-3 IN LAST 16 MLB ML PICKS | +956

ConleyPicks · Aug 7, 2020

Tim Doyle
SAN ANTONIO -7.5
UTAH @ SAN ANTONIO | 8/07 | 1:00 PM EDT
9:44 AM
Even though the Jazz knocked off Memphis on Wednesday, I’m not buying in. Heck, everyone has knocked off Memphis in this bubble. Life without Bojan Bogdanović (out for season) is only going to get tougher for Utah, which also will rest four starters Friday -- including Donovan Mitchell and Rudy Gobert. The Spurs are playing small ball and playing with nothing to lose. Go Pop’s squad!

21-10-1 IN LAST 32 NBA PICKS | +1184

sailfish · Aug 7, 2020

Master Sports

NBA
3* New Orleans -7.5

sailfish · Aug 7, 2020

King of the Court (The Swami)

Thunder/Grizzlies Under 222.5

sailfish · Aug 7, 2020

Buster Sports

3% Islanders-Panthers over 5 (-125)
2% Predators -130

sailfish · Aug 7, 2020

Gianni the Greek

NHL
Game: (53) Nashville Predators at (54) Arizona Coyotes
Date/Time: Aug 7 2020 2:38 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Over 5.5 (+115)

NHL
Game: (55) Pittsburgh Penguins at (56) Montreal Canadiens
Date/Time: Aug 7 2020 4:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 5.5 (-125)

NHL
Game: (57) Toronto Maple Leafs at (58) Columbus Blue Jackets
Date/Time: Aug 7 2020 8:08 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Total Under 5.5 (-125)

sailfish · Aug 7, 2020

Dave Cokin

FRIDAY MLB BEST BET!
Game957) Detroit Tigers at (958) Pittsburgh Pirates
Date/Time: Aug 7 2020 7:05 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Detroit Tigers -110

Game973) Arizona Diamondbacks at (974) San Diego Padres
Date/Time: Aug 7 2020 9:10 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 3%
Play: Arizona Diamondbacks +105

ConleyPicks · Aug 7, 2020

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	Baseball – Yankees over 8
2.	Gameday Network	Baseball – Reds -115
3.	VegasSI.com	Baseball – Phillies +100
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	Baseball – Rockies +115
5.	Sports Action 365	Basketball – Spurs -8
6.	Point Spread Report	Basketball – Celtics over 219.5
7.	Lou Panelli	Basketball – Nets +4.5
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	Basketball – Pelicans -7.5
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	Baseball – Red Sox -115
10.	William E. Stockton	Baseball – Yankees over 8
11.	Vincent Pioli	Baseball – Dodgers -1.5
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	Baseball – Astros over 8.5
13.	SCORE	Basketball – Celtics +2
14.	East Coast Line Movers	Basketball – Spurs -8
15.	Tony Campone	Basketball – Nets under 231
16.	Chicago Sports Group	Basketball – Magic over 222.5
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	Baseball – Angels -170
18.	VIP Action	Baseball – Yankees -105
19.	South Beach Sports	Baseball – Nationals -170
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	Baseball – Red Sox -115
21.	NY Players Club	Basketball – Magic +4.5
22.	Fred Callahan	Basketball – Spurs -8
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	Basketball – Thunder -4.5
24.	Michigan Sports	Basketball – Celtics +2
25.	National Consensus Report	Baseball – Cardinals over 8.5

Friday Service Play Thread 08/07/2020

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