Saturday Service Play Thread 08/08/2020

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Please remember, this forum is not here for regular posters who cap their own games to post their daily plays. Please use our individual sport forums to post your plays. Professional cappers (those that sell plays) must remain in the Site Promotion Forum.

Please do not post Twitter plays or forum member plays in this thread.

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Eddie Olczyk's Travers Day Spot Plays

August 6, 2020

Saratoga's Travers Stakes (Race 11) runs through the obvious favorites #6 Tiz the Law and #3 Uncle Chuck. I’ll try to get #2 Country Grammer to split them in some trifecta plays, hoping to net a $20-type return. Here are a few of the most appealing plays on the undercard.

Race 1

#1A Chocolate Bar (8-1 morning line)

He exited a live maiden race two starts back at Churchill where the winner won right back at Ellis Park in an allowance race. Forget his last Keeneland start from a bad post where he was a speed and fade-type. He needs to rate a little bit because there’s pace in this race to run into. Chocolate Bar appeals around 5-1 as part of an entry.

Race 3

#4 Ava K’s Girl (5-1 morning line)

In a race with plenty of early speed to stalk, expect jockey Manny Franco to follow the pace of #1 Violent Point and #3 Risky Mischief by saving ground and making one run down the lane. Ava K’s Girl is proven at the Spa, and I’m targeting about 6-1 odds.

Race 7

#6 Pink Sands (10-1 morning line)

Late-running Pink Sands will just let the inside speed of #1 Serengeti Empress and #2 Cookie Dough knock heads and hope the pace collapses. The race sets up for a finisher and Pink Sands should be running late. An 8-1 price would be nice.
 

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Red Dog Sports

Aug 08 '20, 11:30 AM in 10h
Soccer | FC Rostov vs Tambov
Play on: FC Rostov -112 at betonline

FC Rostov 2
Tambov 1
 

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Rob Vinciletti

Aug 08 '20, 7:05 PM in 18h
MLB | Twins vs Royals
Play on: Twins -158 at 5Dimes

$$ Saturday Featured Bonus Play $$
The MLB Comp play for Saturday is on the Minnesota Twins at 7:05 eastern. The Twins are 14-2 as a road favorite of 140 or more and fit a 41-14 system based on last nights loss. Odorizzi goes for the Twins and he has won 4 straight as a road favorite. KC is 2-6 off a home dog win and has Duffy making his first home start taking on a Minny team that is 8-1 on the road if they scored 2 or less on the road in their last game. Look for Minnesota to get the win. For the MLB Comp play. Play on the Twins. RV- GC Sports.
 

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ANDY LANG

Event: (7519) Martin Truex Jr at (7520) Kyle Busch
Sport/League: MOT
Date/Time: August 8, 2020 4PM EDT
Play: Martin Truex Jr 0.0 (-145)

The fade Kyle Busch tour continues as we cash another ticket against him last week when his car again couldn't get the setup right again and he blew a tire and wrecked into the wall. When gambling in NASCAR, you can hit some streaks by fading a driver who can't get it together and goes into a funk, or by hitting a guy who's in a hot streak, and in this matchup we get a guy in a funk, and a guy who might be starting one of his hot streaks. Kyle is struggling and only has 1 stage win since the restart, and Truex has averaged a top 3 finish the last 2 races showing me Truex is ready to rip off a string of good finishes. We've also seen a trend with Truex where he can get the setup right on his car during this stretch of no practices on tracks he likes, and he likes Michigan. Combined in both races last year at Michigan he averages the highest finishing position at 3.5, and Kyle has been open that the lack of practice has really hurt him since the restart. Michigan is a tough track to set up for, it's big with huge banked turns, so if Kyle and his team have struggled at other tracks setting the car up, this track might prove as difficult as ever. I'll happily take the driver with the momentum over the driver with the struggles.
 

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GIANNI THE GREEK

Event: (24341) Justin Jaynes at (24342) Gavin Tucker
Sport/League: MMA
Date/Time: August 8, 2020 11PM EDT
Play: Gavin Tucker -125
 

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Kyle Marley


Tim Means by TKO (+400)
 

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NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS
THE LEGEND!
FREE MLB PICKS
Orioles @ Nationals
TIME: 6:10 PM EST
PICK: UNDER 9
 

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Lou Finocchiaro (GambLou)



Derrick Lewis -180

“I rarely take the favorite, but there’s value on Lewis at that price. The public seems to think Oleinik is going to be able to run around and buy enough time to tire the big man out, drag him to the floor and submit him.

“But the Russian is the much smaller man, well older (at 43) and, to top it all off, he has a glass jaw. He’s in there fighting the fourth-ranked heavyweight, a huge, powerful man who only has one trick, and that’s to hit you and knock you out.”


Finocchiaro also is banking on the bout to go under 1½ rounds (-110). He expects Lewis to end it quickly.


“I believe Lewis is going to rush right out there and try to knock Oleinik out. With two huge men in the smaller cage, engagement is going to be more prevalent because of the lack of space.”



Here are Finocchiaro’s other two best bets:

Holtzman (+165) over Dariush

Finocchiaro said his best bet on the card is Scott Holtzman over Beneil Dariush in a lightweight fight on the main card.


“Holtzman is an ex-hockey player who’s tough as nails, very athletic and really improving as a striker. In every UFC fight he’s had, he’s never been finished. Like Lewis, Holtzman must keep it on his feet. If Dariush gets it to the floor, he’ll have the advantage. But it’s my estimation that Holtzman is too strong and his footwork and striking are too refined.


Jaynes (+106) over Tucker

Justin Jaynes knocked out Frank Camacho 41 seconds into his UFC debut in June. Finocchiaro likes Jaynes to make it two wins in a row against Gavin Tucker in their featherweight fight on the preliminary card.

“Tucker has been very inactive with three fights the last three years. He has a tendency to get hit. His success has been against relatively mediocre competition. Jaynes is the taller fighter, longer fighter and I believe the more explosive fighter. He’s coming off that impressive debut win and has got the momentum as well.”
 

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MMA expert Casey Olson



MAIN EVENT PREDICTION

#4 DERRICK LEWIS 23-7 VS #10 ALEXEY OLEINIK 59-13-1

This will be an amazing sight to see. We have one of the most exciting knockout artists against one of the most technical grapplers in the sport and at heavyweight! Derrick Lewis, the former title contender, is coming in off of two consecutive wins, looking to stay the course and position himself for another future title shot once we get out of the log jam at the top of the division. Oleinik has professional fights across four decades, and dare I say he’s looked better than ever in his last two fights? Oleinik is still in great shape despite being 73 fights into his career. He also has a consecutive win streak, most recently knocking off Fabricio Werdum and Maurice Greene. With a win Saturday night, the “Boa Constrictor” shakes up the division in a big way.

On the feet, Oleinik is going to be in trouble against Lewis. He’s very hittable and has been known to take some damage to get inside to implement his submission work. This will cause some issues with the heavy shots from Lewis coming his way. He gets hit clean even once, and I could see him turtle up, which would secure Lewis a TKO. With five rounds to work, if he can avoid the grappling, he should wear down the 43-year-old Oleinik across the 25 minutes, eventually causing an error ending Oleinik’s night.

On the other hand, Lewis has been known to be a slow starter and let his opponents into fights before ultimately landing a big shot. His last two wins were razor close and against grapplers Ilar Litifi and Blagoy Ivanov. Lewis was taken down three times in each of those fights, yet was able to do enough on the feet to sway the judges. (Note going into this fight, Lewis has a 53% takedown defense) In my opinion, Oleinik is more of a threat on the mat than these two former opponents, so things could get very interesting if this one gets down to the mat. The Oleinik line continues to get hit, moving Lewis more and more in the direction I like to see by fight time. I have taken a position on the under 1.5 rounds as of write up at plus money. I believe with two very contrasting styles, we could see a very cautious chess match between the two, though the small cage will eventually force the engagement between the two. We will see one of two finishes in this one, in a fight that highly likely should end early. Lewis looks to be a great shape, and I know the guy above him in the ranks has been chirping his way a bit for taking this so-called “easy fight.”

Nothing easy about facing a guy with 59 victories and 46 of them by way of submission as a pro, though. I anticipate we see Lewis looking to score earlier than we have in the recent past. If we look into Oleinik’s last four fights, he was finished in one round by Alistair Overeem and Walt Harris. After taking punishment and almost gassing after one round, beat a very green Maurice Greene (no pun intended), and most recently edged out a split decision against the shell of Fabricio Werdum, who was coming back after a two-year layoff and out of shape. Oleinik has four losses under the UFC banner, and three are by way of KO. On the other hand, Lewis has only lost via submission once, and that was to a former double champ, Daniel Cormier. That’s a big neck to get your hands around.


PREDICTIONS

- OLEINIK/LEWIS U1.5 ROUNDS +100
- DERRICK LEWIS -200 (look via TKO/KO -135)



OTHER WAGERS

MAKI PITOLO 13-5 VS DARREN STEWART 11-5

“Coconut Bombz" vs. "The Dentist." You know what that means. Maki Pitolo has looked good at 185, but this will be a step up in competition for him. Darren Stewart is a lackluster 3-3 outside of the UK, but this is his to lose, in my opinion, and I don’t think he will. Stewart has proven his durability and will be able to stand up with Pitolo and make this one war. He’ll also have more speed and power, and just might be able to finish Pitolo. Pitolo is coming off of a TKO win against Charles Byrd in June, where Byrd was set to retire post-fight. Byrd gave a great effort for one round then was pretty much ready to call it a day. Stewart won’t be doing the same. Expect a war.

PREDICTION: DARREN STEWART -155


#14 BENEIL DARIUSH 18-4-1 VS SCOTT HOLTZMAN 14-3

No bathroom break fight here—tons of skill in this one. Dariush looks to be back on track with four wins in a row, including finishes in his last three against some tough opponents. Holtzman is tough himself, and has never been finished in 17 fights, and is coming in to probably his toughest test to date. Dariush just has more ways to win here. I believe he’s more technical everywhere, coupled with some power, as we saw against Drakkar Klose in March, resulting in a first-time knockout. Holtzman is getting up there in age (36) but always comes in ready, in shape, and ready to go to war. He has one path to victory here, and it via KO. I got Dariush.

PREDICTION: BENEIL DARIUSH -160


YOUSSEF ZALAL 9-2 VS PETER BARRETT 11-3

Peter Barrett is making his UFC debut here and coming down from 155 to take on Youssef Zalal, who’s been very busy this year (3rd fight scheduled in 2020). Zalal is a very young prospect and is dangerous wherever the fight goes. Barrett has been inactive for the last year, with two fights being canceled this year, and is finally getting his much-anticipated shot under the bright lights. Zalal should be better everywhere. Barrett’s strength is on the feet with his striking, so I expect Zalal to do what we didn't see against Jordan Griffin in his last match, and that is taking this one to the mat to expose Barrett’s limited grappling ability. Zalal is great with the chokes, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he doesn’t get another one here.

PREDICTION: ZALAL via SUB +400



FULL MAIN CARD & PRELIM PREDICTIONS

DERRICK LEWIS defeats ALEXEY OLEINIK
OMARI AKHMEDOV defeats CHRIS WEIDMAN
DARREN STEWART defeats MAKI PITOLO
JULIJA STOLIARENKO defeats YANA KUNITSKAYA
BENEIL DARIUSH defeats SCOTT HOLTZMAN
KEVIN HOLLAND defeats JOAQUIN BUCKLEY
LAUREANO STAROPOLI defeats TIM MEANS
NASRAT HAQPARAST defeats ALEX MUNOZ
WELLINGTON TURMAN defeats ANDREW SANCHEZ
JUSTIN JAYNES defeats GAVIN TUCKER
YOUSSEF ZALAL defeats PETER BARRETT
IRWIN RIVERA defeats ALI AL QAISI



UFC FIGHT NIGHT BET SUMMARY

Fight card predictions overall: 229-128-7 (65%)

Targeted matchups (wagers): 90-39-3 (70%)
 

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Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Hambo Day Analysis


August 8, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has a big star-studded 16-race card for Hambletonian Day starting with the first post at 12 noon EST. This will be the first time the Hambletonian will be a one race final and the $1 million trot is carded as Race 11. The Hambletonian Oaks goes in Race 9 and has a $600,000 purse. There will be a total of 10 stake races with combined purses of over $3.5 million.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7-Sam McKee Memorial FFA Pace-Purse $229,660

8-Bettor's Wish (7/2)-All 3 of my top selections could win this race but will lean towards the Ryder trainee who tries Lasix for the 2nd time. This should be a great race and if the fractions for the opening half are sizzling Dunn could leave and duck and come on again. This 4-year-old gets the edge on versatility and the fact Dunn can get the most out of him.
2-Dancin Lou (3-1)-Lou qualified well on 7/31 but hasn't raced since 7/18, when he won the Haughton. There is nothing to criticize, Sears will likely go for the lead and it remains to be seen how many will challenge. Could snag 4th win in 6 starts this year as long as the trip isn't too taxing. Lou is a monster and should be a threat for top honors once again.
3-Hurrikane Emperor (6-1)-McDermott trainee should be in position at the top of the lane and it will be interesting to see how MacDonald works the trip. Has the gate speed to leave but may look to follow the same script as in the Graduate. Could duck, then fly by down the lane at a square price and should be used in gimmicks as well.

$10 Exacta key 8/2,3
$2 Exacta Box 3-8, 2-3
Total Bet=$28

Race 9-Hambletonian Oaks-Purse $600,000

12-Hypnotic AM (5/2)-Has been burdened with outside posts in last 3 starts, but in my view this filly is the best trotter in the field. Sears won with Gimpanzee from the 2nd tier in the Hambo Maturity a few weeks ago. Maybe he can work his magic again and #2 could be leaving so that may help. Either way some luck will be needed but will respect chances as winner of 3 of 4 starts at the Big M could be posing again.
7-Sorella (7/2)-Nancy Takter's pupil has been tough to beat, winning 3 of 4 this season and 3 of 5 lifetime at the Big M. She gets a significant post advantage over contenders starting in the 2nd tier. Gingras will likely leave and get on the engine but will probably need to outgun a couple of leavers from the inside to take control. If Gingras and can steal a quarter this gal will be tough to catch.
11-Panem (6-1)-Another top trotting filly from the Takter barn. Hasn't had the success of Sorella but she does seem to be getting better. Consistent filly has been 1st or 2nd in last 5 races and is a threat for top honors if Dunn can somehow work a decent trip.

$10 Exacta Key 12/7,11
Total Bet=$20

Race 10-John Cashman Memorial FFA Trot-Purse $291,350

2-Atlanta (3-1)-This mare loves the Big M with 7 wins in 11 starts and has never been worse than 2nd. Gingras has a post edge over Gimpanzee the morning line chalk and has some options. The only 2 loses this year were to Manchego and will look for a mild upset here.
3-Marion Marauder (6-1)-Captured 1st win in 2 years on 8/24 and did it in style. Set a personal best winning in 150.2 and was 1st over but like a champion found a way to get his noise on the wire 1st. Comes in off a big effort and might be better today.
7-Gimpanzee (2-1)-Melander's prize pupil is a winner of 4 straight this year and has been great. It would be no surprise to see him take another picture and add to earnings of over $2.1 million. But takes on older for the 1st time so I will look to others who should offer more value.

$10 Exacta Key 2/3,7
$5 Eaxcta Key 3/2,7
Total Bet=$30

Race 11-Hambletonian Final-Purse $1,000,000

5-Ramona Hill (5/2)-Comes into the big race off 2 wins, both were great and came from the 10 and 7 holes. Looks the best on paper and McCarthy should be able to get a good trip from this post. But could be bet down.
6-Threefiftytwo (6-1)-Was used early and late in last week's Hambo Elim and finished an impressive 2nd. Dube could be in position to work a really good trip and the Blais barn has been red hot in the last 30-days. Should offer a square price. Could be an upset possibility if chalks falter and should be used in gimmicks.
1-Ready For Moni (3-1)-Nancy Takter looks to win the Hambo after winning the Meadowlands Pace, which seldom happens. Moni has never started from the rail and versus this field it may not be an advantage. There is no denying this colt is in fine form and should be right there at the wire if Gingras works the right trip.

$10 Exacta Key 5/1,6
$5 Exacta Key 6/1,5
Total Bet=$30
 

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Jeff Siegel's Saratoga/Del Mar Wagering Strategies - 8/8/20


August 8, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Saturday, August 8, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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Today’s Del Mar Best Plays:

Del Mar – Fifth Race – Post Time: 4:10 PT
1 – Beguiled (15-1)

In her first start since March, this P. D’Amato-trained filly was badly victimized by an extreme outside post position, and after losing considerable ground every step of the way paid the price in the final furlong, weakening to finish eighth, beaten five lengths. The daughter of Orb will leave from the coveted rail today against the same type of competition and this time, with better racing luck, she figures to improve a ton. It’s worth noting that she recently outworked Carpe Vinum (the filly that beat her last time out) (view workout), so we have no doubt she’s much better than her last race shows, so at 15-1 on the morning line, she’s a major play both in the win pool and in the rolling exotics and can be used in exactas and trifectas with 4-Mind Out and 7-Merneith.

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Del Mar – Tenth Race – Post Time: 6:40 PT
4 – Superman Shaq (7/2)

Half-brother to Breeders’ Cup Distaff S.-G1 winner Monomoy Girl doesn’t show any fancy workout times in his past performance chart, but make no mistake about it, this colt is a smoker. Breezed a furlong in 20 3/5 seconds at the OBS April Sale and then brought $550,000 at auction before being sent West to trainer P. Miller. Powerful colt by Shackleford is fit, fast, and ready to roll (view workout) for this six furlong maiden special weight sprint for 2-year-olds, and at 7/2 on the morning line offers considerable wagering value at that price if you can get it.

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Del Mar – Eleventh Race – Post Time: 7:10 PT
11 – Ya Beauty (7/2)

Irish invader arrives ready to win right off the plane after finishing a strong second in a maiden race at Naas to Soul Search (subsequently Group-3 placed) while almost four lengths clear of the others at the finish. Her 84 Timeform rating makes her a strong fit in this nine furlong maiden turf event for fillies and mares, and with F. Prat taking the call this Irish-bred filly seems set to graduate in her U. S. debut. At 7/2 on the morning line she’s worth consideration in the win pool and as a rolling exotic key.

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Saratoga Analysis and Wagering Strategies:

RACE 1: Post 12:00 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Glynn County; 3-Doswell; 4-Bay Street Money

Forecast: A fairly competitive maiden special weight middle distance turf affair kicks off proceedings on Travers day. Bay Street Money (6-1) is a progressive son of Street Sense making his third career start, but his first with Lasix. The J. Jerkens-trained colt closed against the grain when second in a similar affair at Belmont Park last month while earning a strong speed figure, and with another forward move today might be able to tag the speed. Doswell, away for 11 months and now in the B. Tagg barn, has back form that is good enough to win and has worked like he should be plenty fit. Based on speed figures he’s the one to beat and projects to enjoy a comfortable ground-saving, pace-stalking trip. Glynn County, a $40,000 claim by M. Maker earlier this meeting, was a solid runner-up with a career top number in his first since December, moves into straight maiden company in a sign of confidence, and has every right to improve with that tightener behind him. The Kitten’s Joy colt is worth some consideration at 8-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 2: Post 12:38 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1a-Musical Heart; 3-Shalako

Forecast: Musical Heart, a first off the claim play for R. Atras (powerful 24% with this angle) steps up a notch after missing in a photo over this track and distance last month. With any kind of forward move, he may be able to turn the tables on Shalako, who edged Musical Heart in that race to record his ninth career victory and should be competitive right back. In a race that doesn’t really offer any wagering value, we’ll pass other than to include the two major players in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post 1:15 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Risky Mischief; 9-Light in the Sky

Forecast: Light in the Sky had a legitimate excuse when settling for second as the favorite in a similar state-bred first-level allowance grass sprint for fillies and mares last time out and gets a chance to make amends, but at what should be another short price (she’s 6/5 on the morning line). The Tale of the Cat filly lacks tactical speed and always is susceptible to traffic trouble and/or wide trips, but with a clear path today she could be along in time. Risky Mischief is a “must use” on your ticket. In her second start off a layoff for J. Englehart (superior stats with this angle), the daughter of Into Mischief certainly can improve after flashing speed before fading to fourth in a state-bred dirt sprint at Belmont Park in late June. With this return to the allowance ranks and the switch to grass, she’s a strong threat to take this field a long way. In a recent easy breeze around dogs over the turf training track (view workout), she got over the ground very well while giving indication that she’ll handle the switch in surface just fine.
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RACE 4: Post 1:49 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Sliding Spring; 3-Field of Courage; 5-Hieroglyphyics

Forecast: Hieroglyphics drops again in class after vanning up from Gulfstream Park and is good enough to beat this field over a course he’s been known to like. The M. Maker-trained gelding has been sparingly raced in 2020 (just four starts) and his last pair were far below his standard, but with a return to the Spa against this level of competition the late-running veteran should have every chance to produce the last run. Sliding Spring, also dropping in class, lands the good rail and seems certain to employ front-running tactics. He’s always been suspect under pressure in the final furlong but if not respected early he could lead this field on a merry chase. Field of Courage is unproven around two turns and is winless in two years but this is his fourth start off of a layoff and he’s not being dropped in class by Rudy, so we’ll take this as a sign of confidence. His speed figures are steadily rising and he appeared to finish with interest in a hot grass sprint earlier this month, so at 8-1 on the morning he’s worth tossing in somewhere.
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RACE 5: Post 2:26 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Shackleford Strong; 6-Bottle Rocket Man; 7-Mutasaabeq

Forecast: Here’s a hot maiden 2-year-old sprint featuring a pair of Into Mischief colts making their debuts breaking right alongside each other and another intriguing first-timer shipping up from Ellis Park. Bottle Rocket Man acts like a colt with plenty of speed – he really hasn’t been allowed to show any of it in the morning (view workout) and looks extremely dangerous first crack out of the box for C. Brown (22% with debut runners). Produce by a half-sister to Munnings, this impressive colt brought $350,000 as a yearling and gives every indication of being a win-early type. Mutasaabeq is listed at even money on the morning for T. Pletcher after doing everything asked of him in the morning while easily handling his workmates without ever being set down. Drawn comfortably outside and in a position to pop and go or stalk and pounce, the $425,000 weanling purchase by Shadwell has enough of a foundation to be plenty fit for a top effort right now. Shackleford Strong is a first-timer from the S. Asmussen barn with a few noteworthy drills at Ellis Park. We have to believe his connections think he can run at this level; otherwise, why not run him where he’s been training? It’s a guess, but at 8-1 on the morning he’s worth tossing in on a ticket or two.
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RACE 6: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Secret Potion; 4-Hidden Enemy; 6-Mystical Man

Forecast: This middle distance turf affair for juveniles has several possibilities; those that have raced don’t impress so let’s go with three newcomers and hope that at least one runs to his potential. Mystical Man lands J. Rosario and has worked well since arriving at Saratoga while strictly on his own, typical for the A. Stall, Jr., barn. A $155,000 purchase at the OBS March sale where he was very impressive previewing in :21 2/5 over the all-weather surface, the son of Mucho Macho Man is a leggy colt with plenty of scope and a long stride, and acts like he’ll very much enjoy grass and a distance of ground. He’s at 8-1 on the morning line at that price may be the gamble in the race. Secret Potion is a first-timer by Into Mischief that brought $475,000 as a yearling; he’s out of half-sister to Point of Entry so it’s not surprising that he debuts going long on the lawn. His dirt track drills were just okay but a recent breeze around dogs on grass over the Saratoga training track caught the eye. The C. Brown barn is strong with first-timers (22%) and from the rail under I. Ortiz, Jr. he looks very much like a live item. Hidden Enemy is a son of the world class stallion Galileo from Spinster S.-G1 winner Acoma but went for “only” $150,000 at Keeneland. The work tab is just so-so but he did display ability in a recent breeze over the local lawn and could perk up in the afternoon for the always-productive S. Asmussen/R. Santana, Jr. combo.
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RACE 7: Post 3:42 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Serengeti Empress; 5-Letruska; 6-Pink Sands

Forecast: Morning line favorite Bellafina (9/5) certainly can win but she’s been a beaten choice six times during her career and simply isn’t one to trust. Let’s try to get by without her. Letruska has won nine of 11 career starts though never against this level of competition; still, the daughter of Super Saver has a legitimate chance at a price after winning a listed stakes with a career top speed figure at Gulfstream Park in her most recent outing. She’s undefeated around one turn and may actually be most effective at this shorter trip. Drawn outside the other speed types and therefore with the option to stalk the pace if the race shape dictates, she had a nice recent :47 flat breeze over the track (view workout) to have her right on edge. Serengeti Empress is another that should enjoy the turn back in trip. She hasn’t sprinted in more than a year but in 2019 over this track and distance she finished narrow second to Eclipse Award winner Covfefe in the Test S.-G1 and repeat of that performance today will make her very hard to catch. However, as a need-the-lead type she has no options from her rail draw other than to bust and go and take heat every step of the way. Pink Sands, a prototype late-running sprinter, has a prior win over this track and will get the patient ride she needs from I. Ortiz, Jr. The faster the early pace, then better shot she has, and at 10-1 on the morning line the veteran daughter of Tapit is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post 4:22 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Imprimis; 6-Pulsate; 7-Chewing Gum

Forecast: This is a race in which the speed types look vulnerable, so we’ll concentrate on the closers and hope they receive sufficient help up front. Imprimis has a chance to regain his best form in his first start since splitting the field in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint-G1 last November at Santa Anita. He has a history of firing fresh, but now as a six-year-old it’s hard to be sure which version we’ll see in this Grade-3 grass dash that looks fairly wide open. The son of Broken Vow is listed at 8/5 on the morning line – that seems a bit short – but if he can negotiate a clear run from his rail post the late-running specialist could get up in time. Chewing Gum is another deep closer with a chance to make some noise with good racing luck. The son of Candy Ride is solid in the speed figure department and regular jockey J. Rosario knows him well. If a contested early pace materializes the W. Mott-trained horse will be heard from late. Pulsate probably is too big of a number at 15-1 on the morning line and is yet another that could make an impression if the race shape sets up as we expect. This will be his second start off a layoff and the son of Speightstown can be expected to move forward and at least outrun his odds.
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RACE 9: Post 5:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Mrs. Sippy; 4-My Sister Nat

Forecast: My Sister Nat has yet to register a victory since arriving from France but after a solid prep when finishing second in the New York S.-G2 in her comeback she should be primed for her best effort. A Group-3 stakes winner in France last year and beaten a neck in the 11-furlong Long Island S.-G3 the Big A last November, the C. Brown-trained 5-year-old is quite comfortable at this marathon trip and may be able to produce the last run and tag the other main player, Mrs. Sippy. The G. Motion-trained daughter of Blame, away since the Breeder’s Cup Filly & Mare Turf (she finished ninth) last November, has proven she can fire fresh, having won the Glen Falls S.-G2 over this course and distance in her U.S. debut last year. She’s the 6/5 morning line favorite and probably deserves to be. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll go with the better price – My Sister Nat – slightly on top.
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RACE 10: Post 5:39 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Gamine

Forecast: Gamine made a mockery of the Acorn S.-G1 with a Ruffianesque performance and if she comes anywhere close that type of effort today she’s home free. Both of her one-turn races resulted in easy, dominating victories, and at this seven furlong trip the B. Baffert-trained daughter of Into Mischief should be able to shrug off whatever pressure Venetian Harbor may apply and then go on with it. At 3/5 on the morning line there’s no value to be found, but you can use her as a short price rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 11: Post 6:15 ET. Grade: X
Use: 3-Uncle Chuck; 6-Tiz the Law

Forecast: We know how good Tiz the Law is but we don’t know how good Uncle Chuck is, and that’s pretty much why we expect ‘Law will be odds-on and ‘Chuck to be leave around 2-1 or 5/2 in this year’s edition of the Travers S.-G1. Tiz the Law has the home court advantage and has looked terrific breezing over the Saratoga main track while staying on edge since his dominating Belmont S.-G1 win, while ‘Chuck has been turning heads in the a.m. at Del Mar while acting every bit like B. Baffert’s best 3-year-old since Justify. Is this a two-horse race? It sure looks that way. Since Uncle Chuck will be three-times the price (as he should be) we’ll go with him on top but include both in our rolling exotics in a race that may decide who goes favored in next month’s Kentucky Derby-G1. For more: In Depth Video Analysis with Jeff and Eddie

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RACE 12: Post 6:52 ET. Grade: B
Single: 9-Bankers Beast

Forecast: Bankers Beast exits a fairly strong maiden special weight turf sprint and didn’t run badly while splitting the field with an even effort. Bred better for dirt, the daughter of Central Bankers switches to the main track, picks up L. Saez, and goes for a barn that has excellent stats with second time starters (24%). The Monmouth Park shipper lands the cozy outside draw and can pick her spot move when she wants to. At 9/2 on the morning line she’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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MLB public betting, line movement for August 8
Patrick Everson

The Marlins are 5-0 since returning to action Tuesday, following a COVID-imposed shutdown. Miami beat the host Mets 4-3 Friday night, and Game 2 in that series is at 7:10 p.m. ET Saturday.

MLB betting odds are on the board for Saturday’s games, and this crazy season is at a point where the Miami Marlins cannot be ignored. Since returning Tuesday from their COVID-imposed shutdown, the Marlins are 5-0 fielding a platoon squad and lead the NL East heading into a Saturday night game against the Mets.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s contests.

MLB line movement

After sweeping four games at Baltimore, the Marlins posted a 4-3 Friday win over the Mets to improve to 7-1. However, with a starter not yet named by late Friday night for Saturday’s 7:10 p.m. ET contest, Caesars books haven’t yet posted the opening line.

Clayton Kershaw takes the ball for his second start of the season when the Dodgers host the Giants at 9:10 p.m. ET. Not surprisingly, Kershaw and Co. are hefty favorites, opening -300 at Caesars, with San Francisco +250. There was no movement by late Friday night.

The Braves are among the hotter teams at the moment, on a 7-2 run entering Saturday’s 6:05 p.m. ET matchup at the Phillies. That game was also waiting on an opening line late Friday night.

MLB public betting

The Dodgers are among the most popular picks, even laying -300. Late Friday night, Los Angeles was landing 72 percent of picks against Johnny Cueto and the Giants.
 

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NHL public betting, line movement for August 8
Patrick Everson

Marc-Andre Fleury and the Golden Knights face the Avalanche for the Western Conference's No. 1 seed. Caesars sportsbooks installed Colorado a -115 favorite, with Vegas at even money.

NHL betting odds are on the board for a slimmed-down Saturday slate of two games, as a chunk of the 24-team playoff field got whittled down Friday in qualifying-round games. There are two round-robin matchups Saturday, with the Western Conference and Eastern Conference No. 1 seeds on the line.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on NHL opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s contests.

NHL line movement

The Golden Knights and Avalanche are both 2-0 in the round-robin seeding of the top four teams in the West, so the winner nabs the top seed in the Edmonton bubble. Caesars sportsbooks, which will surely see plenty of public money on the Knights at Las Vegas locations, still made Colorado a -115 favorite, with Vegas even money. There was no movement Friday night for this 3 p.m. ET faceoff.

Likewise, the Flyers and Lightning are 2-0 in the East round-robin, battling for the top seed in the Toronto bubble. Caesars books opened Tampa Bay -135 and Philadelphia +120, and this contest also saw no line movement by late Friday night for an 8 p.m. ET puck drop.

NHL public betting

Consensus often provides insight into where the public is on a game, and in the case of Knights-Avalanche, there’s two-way action with a lean to Colorado. The Avalanche are landing 57 percent of picks and Vegas 43 percent.

Consensus is a more clear cut on Flyers-Lightning, with Tampa Bay drawing 65 percent of early picks to Philadelphia’s 35 percent.
 

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NBA line movement for August 8
Patrick Everson

LeBron James sat out Thursday in a loss to the Rockets, and the Lakers star is questionable for Saturday's game against the Pacers. Despite that, DraftKings opened the Lakers 8-point favorites.

NBA betting odds are posted and seeing money for Saturday’s five-game slate. The marquee matchup in the NBA Bubble is an East-West clash between the Pacers and the Lakers, though Los Angeles might again be without LeBron James as he rests a sore groin.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s matchups. Covers will update this action report with NBA sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the day.

NBA line movement

James sat out Thursday’s 113-97 loss to the Rockets, and he’s questionable for Saturday’s 6 p.m. ET tipoff. As such, and with Los Angeles having already wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the Western Conference, Lakers-Pacers wasn’t on the board at most books Friday night. However, DraftKings had L.A. up at -8, with no early moves.

Oddsmakers face a challenge with LeBron and other stars resting ahead of the playoffs.

“It’s gonna be a wild bubble ride these last few regular-season games,” CG Technology risk analyst Dave Sharapan said. “With spots clinched and guys using ‘load management,’ the lines are going to be all over the place.”

The Bucks and Mavericks play the nightcap at 8:30 p.m. ET, but much like the Lakers, Milwaukee already has the top seed clinched in the Eastern Conference. That has many books waiting to post a number, seeking clarity on who will be in the Bucks’ lineup. DraftKings went ahead and posted Bucks -5.5 and saw no moves on Friday.

Meanwhile, the Suns are the only unbeaten bubble team, at 4-0 SU and ATS, as they try to navigate an unlikely path to the Western Conference playoffs. Phoenix, 2.5 games behind eighth-place Memphis but with three other teams in the way, has a 7:30 p.m. ET date with the Heat. DraftKings opened Miami -2.5, and there was no line movement Friday.
 

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Bob Valentino

I want you to forget the pair of regular season meetings between the Clippers and the Trail Blazers - one in early November and one in early December - that both landed Under the total.

We are living in a new NBA world right now, one that exists inside of a bubble in Orlando, Florida and in this new world, the Over is the way to go when Los Angeles and Portland both play their 5th of 8 games before the postseason gets underway.

The Clippers are a 126 point performance in their Thursday game versus Dallas in a game that easily landed Over the posted price. So, after a pair of Unders in the bubble, Doc Rivers' team has now landed Over in their last 2 and chances they complete the "hat trick" look good a the Blazers have been the story thus far of the bubble.

Portland now looks like the odds-on favorite to lock down the # 8 seed in the Western Conference, as Damian Lilliard and his mates have come out and blazed their way to 3 wins in 4 games and have also landed Over the total in 3 of those 4 games.

Lilliard's offense had been a little "sluggish" in Portland's first three games back, but he was able to light things up for 45 points as the Blazers shot 23 of 39 from behind the arc to set a franchise record.

With Jusef Nuric back in the paint and fresh off a 22 points performance on Thursday, Terry Stotts' team is able to get a few more open looks from the perimeter that they simply are not missing.

I have the feeling this game will feel like a playoff-type contest and the points will be adding up.

Clippers-Blazers Over the total on Saturday afternoon.

2* L.A. CLIPPERS-PORTLAND OVER
 

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Stephen DeAngelo

That’s four straight complimentary winners after the Rays blanked the Yankees 1-0 on Friday. I’m now on a solid 15-7 roll with these freebies heading into Saturday’s play on the Twins on the run line (-1½ runs) over the Rivals



Despite Kansas City’s 3-2 victory in Friday’s series opener, these two AL Central rivals have been going in totally opposite directions since the season started. Even including last night’s result, Minnesota is still 10-4 (tied for the most wins in MLB) and Kansas City is 5-10 (second most losses in MLB). Not only that, but nine of the Twins’ 10 wins have come by multiple runs, while the Royals have failed to cover the run line in six of their defeats (including four of the last five).



Last year, Minnesota owned this rivalry, taking 14 of 19 meetings (including six of nine in KC). Two of those Twins victories came at the expense of Royals lefty Danny Duffy, who gets the start in this one. Duffy gave up 12 runs (11 earned) in 12 2/3 innings last year against Minnesota, losing 11-3 and 5-3. Throw in a 6-5 loss in August 2018, and Duffy has come up short against the Twins each of the last three times he’s faced them, posting a gruesome 8.20 ERA in the process (17 earned runs allowed in 18 2/3 innings).



Even more unsettling if you’re a Royals fan (or a relative of Danny Duffy): Dating to September 2016, Kansas City is just 2-7 in the nine games Duffy has started against Minnesota.



Duffy has been decent to start the 2020 season, giving up seven runs, nine hits and five walks while striking out 16 in 15 1/3 innings (4.11 ERA). But the Royals have lost all three games. In fact, they’re just 1-5 in his last six starts since mid-September of last season.



Meanwhile, Twins right-hander Jake Odorizzi is making his first start of 2020 after a strong bounce-back season last year when he went 15-7 with a 3.51 ERA. Odorizzi was a model of consistency down the stretch in 2019 as he helped Minnesota rack up a shocking 101 victories and an AL Central title. Including a 5-1 victory over the Yankees in the divisional playoffs, he surrendered three earned runs or fewer in each of his final 12 trips to the mound.


More importantly, after the All-Star break, the Twins last year were money in the bank with Odorizzi on the hill, posting an 11-3 record! They’ll be money in the bank once again today as they resume their dominance of the Royals (and continue their dominance of Duffy) with a blowout win.

4* MINNESOTA Run Line (-1 1/2 runs)
 

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Mitchell Newman

Saturday night in Arlington how about the Angels and the Rangers to head Over the total?

Friday night saw the Halos offense which had scored 5 runs or more in 9 straight games get held to just 3 runs as the Under was the winning side for totals players.

Prior to that Under, LA had boasted Overs in 6 of their previous 9.

Even with last night's Under, the Rangers are still trending towards the Over column, with 6 of their last 8 Over the total despite last night's rare Under.

Kolby Allard gets the task of slowing down the hot-hitting Halos, and Allard he will get his first start after Corey Kluber was shut down with a tear in his pitching shoulder.

Allard did will in his first stint of 2020 as he worked 4 innings with just 1 run allowed on 2 hits. Let's see if he can work deeper into the game tonight without getting nicked up. My guess is the deeper he goes the more he will allow.

Patrick Sandoval will go for Los Angeles and he is making his second start of the season. Sandoval made 2 appearances against the Rangers last season with mixed results as he allowed 4 runs on 8 hits in his 3-plus innings the first time he faced them, but was able to redeem himself with 5 scoreless frames in his second start against them.

Both teams have been generating offense, so there is no reason to think we are going to see a pitcher's duel tonight.

Angels-Rangers Over the total.

3* L.A. ANGELS-TEXAS OVER
 

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Cappers Access

MLB (Sat) Indians
MLB (Sat) Brewers
NBA (Sat) Clippers
NHL (Sat) Avalanche
NHL (Sat) Lightning
 

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