Monday Service Play Thread 08/10/2020

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NBA
32-7 last 39

Jazz +2

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12-4 last 16

Over 8.5 Milwaukee

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Ralph Michaels MLB


Game:913 Arizona at 914 Colorado
Date/Time: Aug 10 2020 8:30 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Home -130

4% Colorado -130 vs Arizona (Gray & Ray)

Kevin Dolan

4% EUROPA LEAGUE KNOCKOUT
Game224405) FC Copenhagen at (224406) Manchester United
Date/Time: Aug 10 2020 3:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 4%
Play: 1H Total Under 1.25 (-115)

We expect a tight opening to this game and FC Copenhagen to set up in a very defensive system looking to catch Manchester United late via a set piece. We see any goals coming in the 2nd half in this one and recommend a play on the 1H Under 1.25 goals.

Mike Barner
NBA SPECIALIST
10:30 AM

DENVER +5
DENVER @ L.A. LAKERS | 8/10 | 9:00 PM EDT
The Nuggets are still without Will Barton (knee) and Gary Harris (hip), but having Jamal Murray back is huge. They have also received stellar play from Michael Porter Jr., who has averaged 29.3 points and 12.5 rebounds across their last four games. Meanwhile, the Lakers have locked up the top seed in the West and are just trying to stay healthy for the playoffs. They have lost three straight, with each defeat coming by at least five points. The Nuggets could pull out the win here, but even if they lose, this should be a close contest, so I’ll take the points.

107-64-3 IN LAST 174 NBA ATS PICKS | +3660
13-6-1 IN LAST 20 LAL ATS PICKS | +635

Larry Hartstein

L.A. DODGERS -153
SAN DIEGO @ L.A. DODGERS | 8/10 | 9:40 PM EDT
11:41 AM
Dustin May is 1-0 with a 2.63 ERA and he thrived against the Padres last time out, striking out eight in six innings while allowing two runs on three hits. This is a reasonable price on the 11-5 Dodgers, who are at home, and I'm laying it.

15-2 IN LAST 17 MLB PICKS | +1187
25-13 IN LAST 38 LAD ML PICKS | +1323

37-18 IN LAST 55 SD ML PICKS | +1276

DENVER +5.5
DENVER @ L.A. LAKERS | 8/10 | 9:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:53 PM
The Lakers have looked indifferent since clinching the West's top seed; they've been the worst offensive team in the bubble. Now they face a Nuggets team that just got Jamal Murray back. Denver has won three of four since coming out flat in its opener in the bubble, and the Nuggets have more than enough pieces to keep this close if not win outright.

106-89-3 LAST 198 NBA SIDES | +824
38-28-3 IN LAST 69 DEN ATS PICKS | +725

15-11-1 IN LAST 27 LAL ATS PICKS | +286

Sam Quinn

PHOENIX -5
OKLAHOMA CITY @ PHOENIX | 8/10 | 2:30 PM EDT
7:49 AM
The thing that made the Thunder special all season isn't available to them right now. Dennis Schroder's absence robbed the Thunder of their dominant 3-point guard lineups, and without them, they've been utterly ordinary in Orlando, posting a plus-0.3 net rating since Schroder left. The bubble Suns have decimated teams by 8.0 points per 100 possessions in Orlando. This line is based on ideas of who these teams were before arriving in Florida, not who they are now.

16-10 IN LAST 26 NBA PICKS | +494
3-1 IN LAST 4 OKC ATS PICKS | +190

SDQL

OVER 9.5
OAKLAND @ L.A. ANGELS | 8/10 | 9:40 PM EDT
8:30 AM
The Athletics are 7-0 OU in the first game of a series with no rest on the road when the opposing starter has a strikeout-per-walk ratio less than 2.0 on the season, zooming Over by an average of a whopping 6.29 runs per game. In their last two game in this spot, the Athletics scored 19 and 14 runs, respectively. The Angels are 8-0 OU in the first game of a series with no rest after a game in which their opponent scored first and 9-0 OU before their 80th game of the season as home underdogs when they lost their last two and they are facing a team that won their last two. These nine games have gone Over by an average of 5.78 runs per game and the final score in their last two games in this spot were 11-5 and 16-7. We are on the Over.

16-10 IN LAST 26 MLB PICKS | +297
OVER 9
CHI. WHITE SOX @ DETROIT | 8/10 | 7:10 PM EDT
8:27 AM
Chicago is 10-0 OU as a 140+ favorite off a home game in which it struck out at least 10 times, flying Over the number by an average of 4.6 runs per game. The White Sox have scored at least six runs in each of their last five games in this spot. Detroit is 7-0 OU at home coming off a road game in which it had more strikeouts than hits, flying Over by an average of 5.00 runs per game. The finals of their last four games in this spot have been: 13-4, 12-1, 12-11 and 14-6. We make the play the Over.

16-10 IN LAST 26 MLB PICKS | +297
L.A. DODGERS -160
SAN DIEGO @ L.A. DODGERS | 8/10 | 9:40 PM EDT
8:25 AM
San Diego is 0-11 SU as a 140-plus dog after striking out at least 10 times and 0-15 SU as a road underdog coming off a home game in which it had more than 10 team left on base and walked fewer than 10 times. The Dodgers are simply 13-0 SU as a favorite of more than 130 after they had fewer team-left-on-base than their opponent. Los Angeles has won these 13 games by an average of 4.62 runs, with each of the last seven victories by at least three runs. The Dodgers, easy.

16-10 IN LAST 26 MLB PICKS | +297
4-0 IN LAST 4 LAD ML PICKS | +420

3-1 IN LAST 4 SD ML PICKS | +167

PHILADELPHIA -153
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 8/10 | 6:05 PM EDT
8:23 AM
The Phillies are 13-0 as a 120-plus favorite off a game in which they allowed 12-plus hits, winning by an average of 4.15 runs per game. Atlanta is 0-7 SU as an underdog after a game in which it had a higher team-left-on-base than its opponent, and 0-7 SU as a dog off a game as a favorite when it is not the first game of a series and facing a divisional opponent with fewer wins. In their last five games in this spot, the Braves have allowed 10, 8, 9, 9, and 7 runs respectively.

16-10 IN LAST 26 MLB PICKS | +297
4-0 IN LAST 4 ATL ML PICKS | +400

CHI. WHITE SOX -153
CHI. WHITE SOX @ DETROIT | 8/10 | 7:10 PM EDT
8:21 AM
The White Sox are 9-0 SU as road favorites after a game as home underdogs in which they hit at least one home run. They're also 9-0 SU as road favorites when they scored two or fewer runs for their starter in his last start, including 8-1 on the run line. Detroit is 0-10 SU as an underdog in the first game of a home series with no rest coming off a game as an underdog in which it did not hit a home run. Each of Detroit's last five losses were by multiple runs. We make the play the White Sox.

16-10 IN LAST 26 MLB PICKS | +297

Bill Marzano

DENVER +5
DENVER @ L.A. LAKERS | 8/10 | 9:00 PM EDT
10:49 AM
There's no reason for the Lakers to push LeBron James or Anthony Davis in this one, as they've wrapped up the No. 1 seed in the West. The Nuggets match up well and I wouldn't be surprised if they won outright.

4-1 IN LAST 5 NBA PICKS | +290
2-1 IN LAST 3 LAL ATS PICKS | +91

OVER 220
INDIANA @ MIAMI | 8/10 | 8:00 PM EDT
10:48 AM
The Heat should have their top two scorers back. I expect a fast-paced game with a lot of 3-point attempts. The Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings, and 6-0 the last six times the Pacers dressed up as underdogs.

4-1 IN LAST 5 NBA PICKS | +290

OKLAHOMA CITY +5
OKLAHOMA CITY @ PHOENIX | 8/10 | 2:30 PM EDT
10:44 AM
The Suns are undefeated since the restart and clawing to get into the playoffs. The Thunder are 3-2 and chasing the Rockets for the fourth seed. OKC is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 games playing on no rest. Steven Adams and Andre Roberson both could return for this one. Look for the Thunder to improve to 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings.

4-1 IN LAST 5 NBA PICKS | +290

INDIANA +3.5
INDIANA @ MIAMI | 8/10 | 8:00 PM EDT
10:42 AM
This is a fantastic matchup, as Indiana and Miami have identical records. But the Pacers are 4-1 since the restart, and T.J. Warren is on fire. Indiana is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings with the Heat. Miami is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven on one day's rest. Grab the points.

4-1 IN LAST 5 NBA PICKS | +290

6-2-1 IN LAST 9 IND ATS PICKS | +376

ATS

4 wash
3 oak over

Power Plays (Theswami)

10 Top Total Play · Under 228 Toronto Raptors vs. Milwaukee Bucks

Larry Hartstein

PHOENIX -7.5
OKLAHOMA CITY @ PHOENIX | 8/10 | 2:30 PM EDT
12:49 PM
The Suns are undefeated in the bubble, and they should continue that Monday against an OKC team missing five key players. Look for DeAndre Ayton to dominate inside as Phoenix takes advantage of a depleted Thunder side playing on zero days' rest.

106-89-3 LAST 198 NBA SIDES | +824
48-29 IN LAST 77 PHO ATS PICKS | +1657

37-27 IN LAST 64 OKC ATS PICKS | +790

Mike Barner

PHOENIX -7.5
OKLAHOMA CITY @ PHOENIX | 8/10 | 2:30 PM EDT
12:49 PM
The Suns are undefeated in the bubble, and they should continue that Monday against an OKC team missing five key players. Look for DeAndre Ayton to dominate inside as Phoenix takes advantage of a depleted Thunder side playing on zero days' rest.

106-89-3 LAST 198 NBA SIDES | +824
48-29 IN LAST 77 PHO ATS PICKS | +1657

37-27 IN LAST 64 OKC ATS PICKS | +790

Adam Goodwyn


DETROIT +130
CHI. WHITE SOX @ DETROIT | 8/10 | 7:10 PM EDT
1:32 PM
My model has the Tigers winning this game 49.37 percent of the time. WIth any price above +125, bettors are looking at an edge of roughly 5 percent. The price of +125 translates to a 44 percent expected win rate. Take the Tigers on Monday.

5-3 IN LAST 8 MLB ML PICKS | +377

ATLANTA +143
ATLANTA @ PHILADELPHIA | 8/10 | 6:05 PM EDT
1:30 PM
My model has the Braves winning this game 45.3 percent of the time. Anything over a +135 payout, and you are looking at an edge of 3-4 percent. The price translates roughly to a 42 percent expected win percentage for the Braves. I like the value Monday on one of the best offenses in baseball.

5-3 IN LAST 8 MLB ML PICKS | +377

Accu Picks

NBA
3* Dallas/Utah under 224

Sports Handicapping Service. MIT group.

Mets ml
Phiilies ml
Twins ml

VIP Sports. (Not Steve Stevens)

Giants ml
Padres ml
Brewers over
Phillies under

Dr. Chuck

5% Monday Massacre
Oakland Athletics -130

Manaea v. Teheran (listed)

I am not certain how long it is planned for Teheran to go in this game...he came over from the Braves having been only a starter, but really in an ideal Joe Maddon world, would likely not be already making his 2nd start this early in the season were it not for serious issues with the main 5, including Ohtani being shut down completely. So we benefit from this, as those of you who were with me in year 1 remember the number of times we faded ole JT in 2019. His first outing was rough...2 innings, 2 runs, 2 walks, and a little all over the place...as he is habitually. The A's facing RHP have been unbelievably patient at the plate when playing away from Oakland...and actually walk AND K at an identical 20% rate so far, which is a league best walk rate against RHP on the road...while splitting 3.5/.383/152!

On the other side we have Manaea, with a glorious 8+ ERA that the public HATES, but is not the real truth...his record also stares at those in the preview at 0-2...further allowing us a solid -130 price on the favorite and MUCH better team all the way around.

Manaea boasts a 0.73 BB/9 rate through 3 starts, with also a 3.18 xFIP....but with a .375 BABIP and just 33% LOB rate...both so much higher than average, both for himself and the league, that it is almost fun to find these numbers that will normalize to a great degree! Both of those happen to fall direcly in line...his personal averages fall at .280 BABIP and 73% LOB rate...while this year's league averages oddly enough, fall at .278 BABIP and 73.5% LOB rate!

On top of any of this personal stuff....the Angels have been HORRIFIC facing left handers of late...coming in at a 29th or 30th in most analytics...including a split of -6.5/.234/54 over the last 100+ PAs!

I could write about this game all day long and never get the play up...haha...but to add insult to injury...the A's bullpen has always been known to be a strength...but of late have REALLY been flexing!

A's bullpen: FIP of 1.38, K rate of 35% with BB rate of 4.8% and K/BB rate of 7.0 and a BAA of .169!

Let's win a big, easy one tonight and hopefully less stressful than our winning opening 5% play in this same matchup!

4% 1H Utah Jazz -4.5 (-105)
Maybe I'm confused...but I don't know what number I am supposed to think is appropriate here....and similar to the 1H play from the end of last week...I think the full game spread has gotten a little too wide...largely due to fatigue throughout the game as it goes 4 quarters. Carlisle has announced, a la Quinn Snyder last week...that he plans to lose the game to the Jazz today...with only Tim Hardaway Jr a go at all in this game...with DFS, Luka, Porzingis, Powell, Lee, Brunson at the least all sitting...and maybe even Curry.

The Jazz will be basically at full strength, though Spida Mitchell may be out for the game...which would be smart to sit...and maybe even lop a point off this spread closer to tip off for folks looking for a later play....the Jazz should be ahead by 10 or so at the break!

Tony Finn

NL WEST GAME of the MONTH

5% Colorado Rockies