Saturday Service Play Thread 08/15/2020

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Stephen Oh

PITTSBURGH +190
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 8/15 | 6:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:50 PM
Pittsburgh deservedly is an underdog against Trevor Bauer and the Reds, but it shouldn't be this big of an underdog. Three of Steven Brault's four outings this season have been scoreless. My model says that the Pirates win more than 40 percent of the time, so you're getting good value with Pittsburgh at this price.

11-6 LAST 17 MLB SIDES | +654
20-11 IN LAST 31 PIT ML PICKS | +783

23-18 IN LAST 41 CIN ML PICKS | +410

PORTLAND -6
MEMPHIS @ PORTLAND | 8/15 | 2:30 PM EDT
9:30 PM
The Grizzlies simply don't score enough to keep up with Portland. The Blazers have led the NBA in offensive efficiency in the bubble, averaging 122.5 points per 100 possessions. Memphis has been 18th (out of 22), at 107.1. My model says Damian Lillard & Co. cover more than 50 percent of the time, so you're getting value at this number.

37-8 IN LAST 45 NBA PICKS | +2818
9-5 IN LAST 14 POR ATS PICKS | +351

6-3 IN LAST 9 MEM ATS PICKS | +271

XS Sports Picks Saturday NHL

NHL: Yesterday (2-1) +$3,000 / Restart (23-7) 77% +$21,730

$3000 Boston -111 (12 pm)

$3000 Arizona Under 5.5 -130 (3 pm)

$3000 Columbus Under 5 +125 (7:30 pm)

XS Sports Picks Saturday KBO

KBO: Yesterday (2-0) +$800 / This Week (3-7) -$2,400

5* Kiwoom Heroes -135 (4 am)

5* Doosan Bears Over 11.5 (4 am)

3* NC Dinos -120 (4 am)

3* Kia Tigers Over 10 -115 (4 am)

bmd1803 said:

Stephen Oh

PORTLAND -6
MEMPHIS @ PORTLAND | 8/15 | 2:30 PM EDT
9:30 PM
The Grizzlies simply don't score enough to keep up with Portland. The Blazers have led the NBA in offensive efficiency in the bubble, averaging 122.5 points per 100 possessions. Memphis has been 18th (out of 22), at 107.1. My model says Damian Lillard & Co. cover more than 50 percent of the time, so you're getting value at this number.

37-8 IN LAST 45 NBA PICKS | +2818

Click to expand...

:monsters-:monsters-:monsters-

Good fella


UFC 252 3* TRIPLE DIME MAX BET BOMB

UFC 252 3* is on #24218 Sean OMalley -280​

SDQL

COLORADO -160
TEXAS @ COLORADO | 8/15 | 8:10 PM EDT
7:48 AM
The Rangers pulled out a 3-2 win after trailing over the first four innings in yesterday’s series opener. Texas is 0-16 SU as a 130-plus underdog in the second game of a series against a team with a better record. Colorado tends to avenge these defeats, as the Rockies are 21-0 as 140-plus home favorites during the regular season when coming off a game in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs, and it is not the fourth game of a series. We make the Rockies the play.

11-3 IN LAST 14 MLB PICKS | +711


PHILADELPHIA -172
N.Y. METS @ PHILADELPHIA | 8/15 | 6:05 PM EDT
7:46 AM
Since the start of the 2018 season Philadelphia is a perfect 12-0 SU as a 140-plus home favorite with Aaron Nola starting when he had more strikeouts than hits allowed in his last start. The last time that Steven Matz faced the Phillies, New York won 5-4. This is a negative indicator for the Mets, as they are 0-9 SU with Matz starting on the road when they won his last start against the current opponent. We are on the Phillies.

11-3 IN LAST 14 MLB PICKS | +711
3-0 IN LAST 3 PHI ML PICKS | +375


WASHINGTON -190
WASHINGTON @ BALTIMORE | 8/15 | 7:35 PM EDT
7:45 AM
The Nationals exploded for 15 runs yesterday, and they should not let up here. Washington is 9-0 SU coming off a game as a favorite in which it scored six-plus runs. More importantly, the Nats have never lost as a 135-plus favorite with Patrick Corbin as the starter when he has same-season revenge for a team loss the last time he started vs. that opponent. He's 8-0 SU and wins by an average of 3.25 runs in this spot. As for the Orioles, they are 0-19 SU as home underdogs of more than 150 in the second game of a series when they scored first and scored fewer than a dozen runs in the opener. Washington keeps it rolling.

11-3 IN LAST 14 MLB PICKS | +711
2-1 IN LAST 3 BAL ML PICKS | +98


HOUSTON -210
SEATTLE @ HOUSTON | 8/15 | 7:10 PM EDT
7:42 AM
Houston is 17-0 as a home favorite of at least 180 after a game in which it allowed six or fewer hits. Nestor Cortes was shellacked yesterday and the Mariners have not responded well in this spot, going 0-15 as an underdog of more than 160 when coming off a game in which their starter went fewer than three innings. In its last three games in this spot, Seattle has scored a total of one run. We are on the Astros.

11-3 IN LAST 14 MLB PICKS | +711

Sam Quinn
NBA JOURNALIST
7:40 AM

OVER 232.5
MEMPHIS @ PORTLAND | 8/15 | 2:30 PM EDT
Portland's eight seeding games have had an average of 249.4 total points scored. Memphis' eight have been decidedly lower-scoring, but at 227.5, the average between the two would still be far higher than the 232.5 line set here. Memphis may struggle to score right now, but Portland's defense is so bad that it won't have much say in the matter. The offense will do most of the heavy lifting to get us above this total.

17-10 IN LAST 27 NBA PICKS | +594

Kyle Marley

UFC

He won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past 17 months, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up more than $20,000!

Marley has hit 16 of his last 18 UFC main event picks, a stretch that included five consecutive upsets! At UFC Fight Night on Saturday, Marley went 10-2 for a profit of $850 for $100 bettors! His winners included a 4-1 mark on the main card that accurately called wins for Derrick Lewis (-200) over Aleksei Oleinik (+175) in the main event and Chris Weidman (-120) against Omari Akhmedov. (+100) in the co-main event.

Daniel Cormier (-115) vs. Stipe Miocic (-105): Cormier by decision

I am pumped for this one, and I hope it is as exciting as their last fight in which they landed more than 300 combined significant strikes. That is not a stat you will see often in the heavyweight division, but these guys are the best there is, and this should be fun as long as it lasts. Cormier won their first fight with a first-round knockout and Miocic won the rematch with a fourth-round stoppage. Cormier outlanded Miocic by nearly 100 strikes in the second fight and was up on all scorecards going into Round 4. Miocic found success with body shots that led to knockout. I think the current champ is probably still more likely to win this fight by knockout, but Cormier is more likely to win on the scorecards or possibly a submission.

Sean O'Malley (-330) vs. Marlon Vera (+270): O'Malley by TKO

I liked what I saw from O'Malley in his last two fights, but they were both ended in Round 1, and Vera presents step-up in competition. I think O'Malley is the more dangerous fighter and the better striker who should be landing the harder shots and more volume. Vera can keep it close on the feet and could have success in the clinch, as well as on the ground. I think a rear-naked choke or a guillotine submission are the most likely paths to victory for Vera, although O'Malley should be able to avoid those outcomes. His striking looks legit and much more dangerous than it was before his two-year layoff.

Jairzinho Rozenstruik (-155) vs. Junior Dos Santos (+135): Dos Santos by decision

Dos Santos is the better boxer but Rozenstruik is the more powerful striker with more tools in that realm. Dos Santos has a suspect chin these days and any big shot from Jairzinho could put him out. I think it is knockout-or-bust for Jairzinho and I don't like laying juice on those type of fighters. I think Dos Santos could get a knockout of his own and he will have success with his boxing if he can avoid the big shot. I also see him going for takedowns and wearing Rozenstruik down, taking the power away from his big shots. If Dos Santos stays conscious, he gets his hand raised.

Merab Dvalishvili (-180) vs. John Dodson (+160): Dvalishvili by decision

Dvalishvili is a new breed of wrestler. He is nonstop, and his pace is impressive. He has had five UFC fights and all have gone to decision. He still averages four significant strikes per minute along with a crazy 8.67 takedowns per 15 minutes. Dodson is going to be the better striker and much more likely to get a knockout, but Dvalishvili's pace is enough to beat him on the feet if he doesn't get knocked out. But it is the wrestling that sets Dvalishvili apart from basically everybody else, even against a guy with great takedown defense like Dodson. I still expect him to be taken down multiple times each round.

Magomed Ankalaev (-300) vs. Ion Cutelaba (+250): Fight canceled Thursday

Vinc Pinchel (-125) vs. Jim Miller (+105): Pichel by decision

These are two older guys who are still performing at a pretty high level. Miller is the younger guy in this and he is the better and more dangerous grappler. I think he could also have the better boxing. Pichel is the better wrestler and he has more power on the feet as well. I think he probably is more likely to take over late if it goes the distance. I think Miller will look better and could possibly get an early finish, but Pichel has the edge if he withstands an early barrage.

Livia Souza (-150) vs. Ashley Yoder (+130): Souza by decision

I think Souza is the more technical and dangerous striker and the better wrestler. Yoder is going to have the size advantage on the feet and she could win the striking battles with volume. I also think Yoder could be the better all-around grappler, but it is close. There will be a lot of grappling. I love betting Yoder at plus-money but I don't know that I can do it in this one because I see Souza being the aggressor and not giving Yoder the space that she needs to work with on the feet. I don't know that Yoder can consistently get takedowns, either.

Parker Porter (-125) vs. Chris Daukaus (+105): Porter by TKO

Porter looks like he is going to be the bigger fighter. He is a big boy, while Daukaus looks like he could cut to 185 pounds. Daukaus is the better striker, but he is going to need to keep this striking or get a knockout to have a shot. Porter is the more well-rounded fighter and I think he could get the fight to the mat and have success in top control. Porter doesn't look as dangerous as he should be, so I could see him not finishing and maybe getting caught on the feet if Daukaus can get back to the feet. Porter just has more ways to win this fight and should be able to use his size advantage to get this fight to the mat.

Virna Jandriroba (-310) vs. Felice Herrig (+255): Jandiroba by decision

Herrig is coming back from a torn ACL and she is now 35 years old. I think she will still be the better striker and the stronger fighter. She usually has the grappling edge and that won't be the case Saturday. I think this fight will mainly take place on the ground and both fighters could have their moments, but I favor Jandiroba because I think she could get a submission at some point. Her lone loss was to Herrig's friend and training partner, Carla Esparza, so maybe she has some solid insight. If she wasn't coming back from the ACL, I would probably take a small shot on Herrig. I just don't know that she can be trusted.

Herbert Burns (-260) vs. Daniel Pineda (+220): Burns by submission

Pineda is the much more experienced fighter and could keep this close on the feet. He has 41 total fights and 18 of his wins are by submission. And he has zero decision wins. Burns is going to be the better grappler and I think he might be the better striker as well. This is a great matchup for Burns and I think he gets a submission win like the UFC wants here.

T.J. Brown (-170) vs. Danny Chavez (+150): Brown by submission

There isn't a lot of footage on Chavez, but he looks to be a striker and his kicks look like the best part of his game. Aside from a possible guillotine, I don't see him having any real success on the ground. Brown is aggressive on the feet as well, so I think he wins on the feet just with volume and pressure. He could get a knockout, but he can get takedowns and have a lot of success with ground-and-pound or work his way to a submission such as his specialty arm triangle. I don't see why Brown would want to strike a lot when that is where the danger will be, but I would say this is knockout or bust for Chavez.

Kai Kamaka (-175) vs. Tony Kelley (+155): Kamaka by decision

This fight was added late in the week but it should be entertaining. Kamaka just fought a couple weeks ago and he looked pretty good. He looks strong and fast at 25 and he has some good boxing and overall striking. Kelley last fought over a year ago and won with a submission. His cardio is a concern, so a longer fight favors Kamaka. I favor Kamaka in the striking though and I will take him because of all the unknowns with Kelley.

Top Dog Sports (TheSwami)

10 Top NHL Side Play: #38 Arizona Coyotes

TeamRonaldinho

BULGARIA: Parva liga
Arda - Levski Sofia
Levski Sofia Over 1.5 GOALS @ 2.45

Mike Barner

NBA - Memphis Grizzlies +6

Tim Doyle

NBA - Memphis Grizzlies +6

newworldinsiders

CHICAGO INSIDER: Cubs OV 9

MLB​(BOB BALFE)
3:20 PM EST
Rotation #977
Brewers -110 over Cubs
Houser/Rea
The Brewers cooled off the Cubs with a close win last night and will look to build some momentum as they face off against swingman Colin Rea. Chicago is down a few pitchers so this is a must win for the Brewers as they have the more polished pitcher in Adrian Houser on the mound. This is a very generous price for this pitching duel. Take the Brewers

Pirates-Reds game Saturday postponed after
Reds player tests positive for covid-19

SleepyJ

Triple Dime Bet

Rangers-Rockies over 11.5
The fact that the game yesterday went under is a help to this total. The fact that Lynn threw a 2-hitter yesterday is a big help here as well. Rockies get Marquez on the mound and the Rangers beat him to open the season. He also threw 2 hit baseball for 6 innings. I think all those combinations have this correct. I see the line has come down from 12.5 to 11.5..Typically that would scare me away, but in this case. It's a small sample of data to just simply fade. I watched Gibson in his last game and he was hanging pitches and getting hit quite easily. If he does that again here, he will get lumped for a bunch of runs. I think that happens. Marquez has pitched 4 games this season and 3 of them were on the road.Mostly pitcher friendly ballparks..His home game was against the Giants who scored 2 runs and struck out 9..Last check the Giants are in last place in the Western division..So Marquez who has pitched well, isn't pitching like Cy You‹ng right now. I have that gut feeling everyone is just going off of past performances and that's fine. I choose to go back to last season. This game would be 11.5 and coming off a dud, both teams would light both of these pitchers up the next game. So I'm not buying the move down. We will see walks and homer's tonight. A few big innings and this one is going over.


NBA Prop - Nurkic under 27.5 pts+rebounds


UFC - Miocic -160

Jimmy Moore

#971 4* Boston Red Sox with Eovaldi ML +170 (7:15 edt) FOX

Boston will be fighting mad after getting swept by the Yankees in their first series of this shortened season and they get to go against Paxton who has been dreadful so far this season. Eovaldi has been decent and in this rivalry the emotions run high so look for a full effort from Boston here to score some underdog cash. Thank you and good luck.

ATS
5 clev under
5 wash over
5 texas over

Brian Bitler

9* MLB Juiced Investment

Phillies