Picks | Notes |
---|---|
#2 Kabuki | Midatlantic runner has been facing better and can run on or just off the lead, doesn't meet a top bunch of locals, and should offer value as well; call to post the mild surprise. |
#4 Lune Lake | Stiff ML favorite looked good winning off the layoff against NYBs and now rises in open waters, and sure, she will be tough, but evens seems way too low; backwheel time. |
#5 Beautiful Success | The other chalk also has a recency edge on the pick, an 4th last time will get her primed for this, though she's a bit slow on paper, and offers no value either; mixed signals. |
Race Summary | The price will be right on the 2, and it's not like either the 4 or 5 are any great shakes, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk4 a well, as she's going to get overlooked and won't be on any budget tickets, even though her form against better is rock solid. |
Picks | Notes |
---|---|
#5 Wrongsideofhistory | Major player was 5th on debut for a patient C. Englehart for a fast race for the level, should only build off that, adds Lasix, and may not even be favored; look out. |
#6 Just Stay Home | ML favorite was a distant 2nd off the break but well clear of 3rd in her local bow and first for Ferraro, so she hits hard, but the pick has more upside; second-best. |
#3 Helmers Run | Price player was less than a length behind the pick last time, in her first for Ferraro as well, so if she moves forward, she's hardly impossible; exotics price appeal. |
Race Summary | That 5-2 ML seems way too good to be true on the 5, as the Lasix, a potent barn, and a ton of upside all point to her today, so make an aggressive win and place bet if the tote allows, while getting some built-in value by singling her in the early Pk4, as she tipped her hand last time, and it looks like all systems go here today. |
Picks | Notes |
---|---|
#6 Spartina Splash | Pace presser was 2nd in her return last time, while beating a few of these, gets all the best from this outside attack post today, and should be able to build off her last; love her chances here. |
#3 Exceed the Goal | ML favorite had a bit of a trip when 5th behind the pick, so clear sailing would help here, and a likely aggressive pace will too, though she figures to be a big underlay as well; trying to beat. |
#5 Hardstonemelody | Stalker was a close 6th in the 7/20 race behind the top-2, so she's in the mix as well, at a much better price than her two main rivals, though passing them won't be easy; can get a share. |
Race Summary | You won't get rich on the 6 but that 5-2 ML seems like a lot of value on a gal that already beat several of these last time, off the break too, and doesn't need to make her own racing luck, so play her aggressively to win and place at 2-1 or better, while getting some added value by keying her in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she looks like she's getting all the best of it here, even though the bettors will likely flock to the 3 off what was a bit of a troubled trip last time. |
Picks | Notes |
---|---|
#5 Macho Mania | Should be able to get the right kind of trip from close a tracking spot, and if he has another step forward in him here, he's the right one. |
#7 Bull Bailey | Longshot makes the third start off the bench with some back races here from last year that might be just good enough to land him a piece at a big price. |
#4 Jangada | Dipped in for $16,000 to graduate at Tampa, so this looks like a pretty reasonable spot for him to try winners for the first time with the new barn. |
Race Summary | Macho Mania has some room to move forward a little bit here, and that's probably all it would take to get him over the top with these. |
Picks | Notes |
---|---|
#6 Crowns and Tiaras | Nothing cute here, as this filly looks tough off a couple of nice races, and she ran an improved race last time out in her second start for the barn. Should be able to handle these. |
#7 Nancy Knowsthemath | Will likely give the top choice a significant head start, but she does look like the one who could take advantage if that filly doesn't bring her best stuff. |
#1 Stormin Rosemary | It's not saying much after 13 starts, but this one is better than ever right now with a couple of Superfecta finishes in those last two tries. Underneath again? |
Race Summary | Crowns and Tiaras is faster early than most of these, and a repeat of her last effort would almost surely be too good for the rest of these. Single. |
Picks | Notes |
---|---|
#2 Starry Affair | She's clearly never getting back to the early races, but she may still have something better left in her, and perhaps she can show it while moving back to the main in this third run off the long break. |
#4 Inaweofnooneatall | Versatile type has won from the back and also owns a gate-to-wire win. Has done little wrong in three starts, and should be right up on the splits again. First jump to score? |
#1 Coco Machen | Rail runner is probably in for a tough trip with his early speed and a couple of other pace players stacked up further outside, but he's already a proven commodity with winners, something a couple of the logical ones in here lack. |
Race Summary | Starry Affair probably owns a top right now that's somewhere above what she has shown in recent starts, and she'll be the right kind of price to give her a shot to step up her game today. |
Picks | Notes |
---|---|
#6 Nutcracker Ballet | Was mid-pack vs. open allowance fillies and mares last out and crushed state-breds two back the only time she faced them. Has an impressive late move on occasion. |
#5 Only Reward's | Lost photos in her last two and is overdue to get up; broke her maiden in easy fashion last year. |
#4 Myers Tiger | Was badly beaten in open company in super-tough races in her last two and returns to where she won by eight in her only start. |
Race Summary | Nutcracker Ballet was dominant against state-breds two back and gets a good pace setup here. |
Picks | Notes |
---|---|
#7 White Wolf | Has been sharp since arriving here, having won and run second; fits well at the distance and was clearly ahead throughout his last one. |
#5 Naughty Alfred | Was second vs. a higher level last time and won for this price two back; has seen some tough opponents and fits with these. |
#4 Asongforyou | Showed speed in her last three races and has pair of seconds and pair of thirds in his last four; Star Guitar gelding capable of a big effort here. |
Race Summary | White Wolf has been sharp over this surface and can be a serious front-end factor in this one. |
Picks | Notes |
---|---|
#1 Pole Setter | Cox trainee makes his first of the year and has trained well for his return; has been in some very good races and won a stakes race in New York. |
#7 Morocco | Make a strong stretch run and just missed at Keeneland in his last; has some good wins on his form. |
#2 Kurilov | Opened up by two int he stretch and then was caught race; ships from Churchill and can get a good stalking trip. |
Race Summary | Pole Setter ran well in several good races and can be close from the start; works indicate he's ready. |