Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 Analysis
August 10, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park has a solid 11-race card on tap for this evening. The 0.20 Pick 5 kicks off the night, the sequence has a $75,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 1
4-Mission Three (8-1)-Makes 2nd start for Fellows barn after breaking slowly last week. Did rally to finish 2nd to #6 who wasn't going to be denied. With a better start camera shy 5-year-old could surprise at a nice price and McClure knows well.
6-Buddha Blue Chip (2-1)-Has won 2 of 3 and has been 1st or 2nd in 7 of last 8, did come 3rd in the other start. Besides being consistent has been claimed in last 3 and is back in at the same class. There is no need to look away, must be used.
Race 2
2-Hayek (2-1)-One of Baillargeon's 2 entries (2/4) and this 3-year-old moves up in class. Does come off a big try from the 8-hole and followed a different script coming off cover to roll by down the lane.
4-HP Bruxelles (7-1)-May need a break or two to win but is usually right there at the wire and should be forwardly placed again. Offers some value at the morning line price.
7-Villefranche AS (4-1)-Blasted out from the 8-hole in last and faded but was off for 3-weeks. Previously won at this level on 7/5, will use and look for a better try tonight.
Race 3
1-Pier Ho Kado (3-1)-Used hopples for the 1st time in last start and won from the 9-hole by coming off cover. That was an impressive win from the 2nd tier at RidC and best to respect here.
6-Chelseas Magic (9/2)-Raced well on 7/26 at RidC and finished 2nd but that was after breaking stride on 7/17 here. Thinking Henry will be more aggressive after putting in a flat line and can beat this crew with a top effort.
9-Moana (4-1)-Beat a couple from this field on 8/4 and fits well with this bunch. 9-hole makes it more difficult, but McNair has options. Steacy trainee can leave for a good seat or come off cover, either way should be in the hunt.
Race 4
4-Miss Rockadlli (5/2)-Flew off the gate in last to get the top and was just nipped at the wire. Now makes 2nd start for the Barrington barn, Henry sticks and looks like a major player.
5-Kiwi Focus N-Drops in for a tag after racing in NW3kL5 on Friday and wasn't used hard. Should like the company and could be dialed on high tonight.
6-High Monn Sunshine (9/2)-Big try last week from the 7-hole to get a 3rd place check and was claimed. Makes 1st start for Fellows and McClure takes a spin. Beaten favorite could make amends here.
7-Lydi Lulla Belle (6-1)-Another who makes 1st start off a claim for Fellows. Was a beaten favorite as well, and came 2nd in 1st Wbsb start. Post shouldn't be a big issue as McNair can put in play early and may offer a square price.
Race 5
2-Captainofrocknroll (5/2)-Won easily on 8/3 when McClure stole the 2nd quarter and is a perfect 2-2 at Mohawk. This colt seems to have as much or more speed than any in this field and has a post edge over the 2nd chalk #8.
4-Island Beach Boy (4-1)-Was rank into the 1st turn in last and had a tough trip but was still pacing hard to the finish. After being 1st over, and seemed to be cut off at the head of the stretch, to lose by only 2 lengths was a strong try. Might be better this week and could be overlooked at the windows.
0.20 Early Pick 5
4,6/2,4,7/1,6,9/4,5,6,7/2,4
Total Bet=$28.80
August 10, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park has a solid 11-race card on tap for this evening. The 0.20 Pick 5 kicks off the night, the sequence has a $75,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 1
4-Mission Three (8-1)-Makes 2nd start for Fellows barn after breaking slowly last week. Did rally to finish 2nd to #6 who wasn't going to be denied. With a better start camera shy 5-year-old could surprise at a nice price and McClure knows well.
6-Buddha Blue Chip (2-1)-Has won 2 of 3 and has been 1st or 2nd in 7 of last 8, did come 3rd in the other start. Besides being consistent has been claimed in last 3 and is back in at the same class. There is no need to look away, must be used.
Race 2
2-Hayek (2-1)-One of Baillargeon's 2 entries (2/4) and this 3-year-old moves up in class. Does come off a big try from the 8-hole and followed a different script coming off cover to roll by down the lane.
4-HP Bruxelles (7-1)-May need a break or two to win but is usually right there at the wire and should be forwardly placed again. Offers some value at the morning line price.
7-Villefranche AS (4-1)-Blasted out from the 8-hole in last and faded but was off for 3-weeks. Previously won at this level on 7/5, will use and look for a better try tonight.
Race 3
1-Pier Ho Kado (3-1)-Used hopples for the 1st time in last start and won from the 9-hole by coming off cover. That was an impressive win from the 2nd tier at RidC and best to respect here.
6-Chelseas Magic (9/2)-Raced well on 7/26 at RidC and finished 2nd but that was after breaking stride on 7/17 here. Thinking Henry will be more aggressive after putting in a flat line and can beat this crew with a top effort.
9-Moana (4-1)-Beat a couple from this field on 8/4 and fits well with this bunch. 9-hole makes it more difficult, but McNair has options. Steacy trainee can leave for a good seat or come off cover, either way should be in the hunt.
Race 4
4-Miss Rockadlli (5/2)-Flew off the gate in last to get the top and was just nipped at the wire. Now makes 2nd start for the Barrington barn, Henry sticks and looks like a major player.
5-Kiwi Focus N-Drops in for a tag after racing in NW3kL5 on Friday and wasn't used hard. Should like the company and could be dialed on high tonight.
6-High Monn Sunshine (9/2)-Big try last week from the 7-hole to get a 3rd place check and was claimed. Makes 1st start for Fellows and McClure takes a spin. Beaten favorite could make amends here.
7-Lydi Lulla Belle (6-1)-Another who makes 1st start off a claim for Fellows. Was a beaten favorite as well, and came 2nd in 1st Wbsb start. Post shouldn't be a big issue as McNair can put in play early and may offer a square price.
Race 5
2-Captainofrocknroll (5/2)-Won easily on 8/3 when McClure stole the 2nd quarter and is a perfect 2-2 at Mohawk. This colt seems to have as much or more speed than any in this field and has a post edge over the 2nd chalk #8.
4-Island Beach Boy (4-1)-Was rank into the 1st turn in last and had a tough trip but was still pacing hard to the finish. After being 1st over, and seemed to be cut off at the head of the stretch, to lose by only 2 lengths was a strong try. Might be better this week and could be overlooked at the windows.
0.20 Early Pick 5
4,6/2,4,7/1,6,9/4,5,6,7/2,4
Total Bet=$28.80
Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks
Finger Lakes - Race #1
Finger Lakes - Race #3
Finger Lakes - Race #6
Finger Lakes - Race #1
| Picks | Notes |
|---|---|
| #2 Kabuki | Midatlantic runner has been facing better and can run on or just off the lead, doesn't meet a top bunch of locals, and should offer value as well; call to post the mild surprise. |
| #4 Lune Lake | Stiff ML favorite looked good winning off the layoff against NYBs and now rises in open waters, and sure, she will be tough, but evens seems way too low; backwheel time. |
| #5 Beautiful Success | The other chalk also has a recency edge on the pick, an 4th last time will get her primed for this, though she's a bit slow on paper, and offers no value either; mixed signals. |
| Race Summary | The price will be right on the 2, and it's not like either the 4 or 5 are any great shakes, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk4 a well, as she's going to get overlooked and won't be on any budget tickets, even though her form against better is rock solid. |
Finger Lakes - Race #3
| Picks | Notes |
|---|---|
| #5 Wrongsideofhistory | Major player was 5th on debut for a patient C. Englehart for a fast race for the level, should only build off that, adds Lasix, and may not even be favored; look out. |
| #6 Just Stay Home | ML favorite was a distant 2nd off the break but well clear of 3rd in her local bow and first for Ferraro, so she hits hard, but the pick has more upside; second-best. |
| #3 Helmers Run | Price player was less than a length behind the pick last time, in her first for Ferraro as well, so if she moves forward, she's hardly impossible; exotics price appeal. |
| Race Summary | That 5-2 ML seems way too good to be true on the 5, as the Lasix, a potent barn, and a ton of upside all point to her today, so make an aggressive win and place bet if the tote allows, while getting some built-in value by singling her in the early Pk4, as she tipped her hand last time, and it looks like all systems go here today. |
Finger Lakes - Race #6
| Picks | Notes |
|---|---|
| #6 Spartina Splash | Pace presser was 2nd in her return last time, while beating a few of these, gets all the best from this outside attack post today, and should be able to build off her last; love her chances here. |
| #3 Exceed the Goal | ML favorite had a bit of a trip when 5th behind the pick, so clear sailing would help here, and a likely aggressive pace will too, though she figures to be a big underlay as well; trying to beat. |
| #5 Hardstonemelody | Stalker was a close 6th in the 7/20 race behind the top-2, so she's in the mix as well, at a much better price than her two main rivals, though passing them won't be easy; can get a share. |
| Race Summary | You won't get rich on the 6 but that 5-2 ML seems like a lot of value on a gal that already beat several of these last time, off the break too, and doesn't need to make her own racing luck, so play her aggressively to win and place at 2-1 or better, while getting some added value by keying her in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she looks like she's getting all the best of it here, even though the bettors will likely flock to the 3 off what was a bit of a troubled trip last time. |
Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks
Mountaineer - Race #2
Mountaineer - Race #4
Mountaineer - Race #8
Mountaineer - Race #2
| Picks | Notes |
|---|---|
| #5 Macho Mania | Should be able to get the right kind of trip from close a tracking spot, and if he has another step forward in him here, he's the right one. |
| #7 Bull Bailey | Longshot makes the third start off the bench with some back races here from last year that might be just good enough to land him a piece at a big price. |
| #4 Jangada | Dipped in for $16,000 to graduate at Tampa, so this looks like a pretty reasonable spot for him to try winners for the first time with the new barn. |
| Race Summary | Macho Mania has some room to move forward a little bit here, and that's probably all it would take to get him over the top with these. |
Mountaineer - Race #4
| Picks | Notes |
|---|---|
| #6 Crowns and Tiaras | Nothing cute here, as this filly looks tough off a couple of nice races, and she ran an improved race last time out in her second start for the barn. Should be able to handle these. |
| #7 Nancy Knowsthemath | Will likely give the top choice a significant head start, but she does look like the one who could take advantage if that filly doesn't bring her best stuff. |
| #1 Stormin Rosemary | It's not saying much after 13 starts, but this one is better than ever right now with a couple of Superfecta finishes in those last two tries. Underneath again? |
| Race Summary | Crowns and Tiaras is faster early than most of these, and a repeat of her last effort would almost surely be too good for the rest of these. Single. |
Mountaineer - Race #8
| Picks | Notes |
|---|---|
| #2 Starry Affair | She's clearly never getting back to the early races, but she may still have something better left in her, and perhaps she can show it while moving back to the main in this third run off the long break. |
| #4 Inaweofnooneatall | Versatile type has won from the back and also owns a gate-to-wire win. Has done little wrong in three starts, and should be right up on the splits again. First jump to score? |
| #1 Coco Machen | Rail runner is probably in for a tough trip with his early speed and a couple of other pace players stacked up further outside, but he's already a proven commodity with winners, something a couple of the logical ones in here lack. |
| Race Summary | Starry Affair probably owns a top right now that's somewhere above what she has shown in recent starts, and she'll be the right kind of price to give her a shot to step up her game today. |
Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks
Indiana Grand - Race #1
Indiana Grand - Race #7
Indiana Grand - Race #8
Indiana Grand - Race #1
| Picks | Notes |
|---|---|
| #6 Nutcracker Ballet | Was mid-pack vs. open allowance fillies and mares last out and crushed state-breds two back the only time she faced them. Has an impressive late move on occasion. |
| #5 Only Reward's | Lost photos in her last two and is overdue to get up; broke her maiden in easy fashion last year. |
| #4 Myers Tiger | Was badly beaten in open company in super-tough races in her last two and returns to where she won by eight in her only start. |
| Race Summary | Nutcracker Ballet was dominant against state-breds two back and gets a good pace setup here. |
Indiana Grand - Race #7
| Picks | Notes |
|---|---|
| #7 White Wolf | Has been sharp since arriving here, having won and run second; fits well at the distance and was clearly ahead throughout his last one. |
| #5 Naughty Alfred | Was second vs. a higher level last time and won for this price two back; has seen some tough opponents and fits with these. |
| #4 Asongforyou | Showed speed in her last three races and has pair of seconds and pair of thirds in his last four; Star Guitar gelding capable of a big effort here. |
| Race Summary | White Wolf has been sharp over this surface and can be a serious front-end factor in this one. |
Indiana Grand - Race #8
| Picks | Notes |
|---|---|
| #1 Pole Setter | Cox trainee makes his first of the year and has trained well for his return; has been in some very good races and won a stakes race in New York. |
| #7 Morocco | Make a strong stretch run and just missed at Keeneland in his last; has some good wins on his form. |
| #2 Kurilov | Opened up by two int he stretch and then was caught race; ships from Churchill and can get a good stalking trip. |
| Race Summary | Pole Setter ran well in several good races and can be close from the start; works indicate he's ready. |
MLB public betting, line movement for August 10
Patrick Everson
Christian Yelich and the Brewers aim to climb back to .500 with a win over the Twins on Monday night. Caesars sportsbooks opened this matchup a -105 pick 'em, with first pitch at 8:10 p.m. ET.
MLB betting odds are up and getting early attention for Monday’s 10-game slate. Among the highlights is an interleague clash between the suddenly slumping Minnesota Twins and the Milwaukee Brewers.
Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s contests.
MLB line movement
Minnesota got out of the gate by winning 10 of its first 12, but dumped its last four games, including a surprising three-game sweep at the hands of the sub-.500 Royals over the weekend. That prompted Caesars books to open Twins at Brewers a -105 pick ‘em for an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch.
The Dodgers host the Padres in the 9:40 p.m. ET nightcap, with both teams looking up at the first-place Rockies in the NL West. Caesars pegged this line Los Angeles -170/San Diego +155, and there was no movement Sunday night.
In the opening game on the Monday docket, a 6:05 p.m. ET start, the Braves close out a four-game set at the Phillies. Philadelphia, behind Aaron Nola, opened a -135 favorite Sunday night and quickly moved out to -142 at Caesars books.
MLB public betting
Not surprisingly, the Dodgers are the top choice in Consensus, landing 68 percent of early picks against the Padres. The Phillies drew 61 percent of picks against the Braves, while Twins-Brewers was closer to two-way action, with Minnesota taking 54 percent of early picks.
Patrick Everson
Christian Yelich and the Brewers aim to climb back to .500 with a win over the Twins on Monday night. Caesars sportsbooks opened this matchup a -105 pick 'em, with first pitch at 8:10 p.m. ET.
MLB betting odds are up and getting early attention for Monday’s 10-game slate. Among the highlights is an interleague clash between the suddenly slumping Minnesota Twins and the Milwaukee Brewers.
Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s contests.
MLB line movement
Minnesota got out of the gate by winning 10 of its first 12, but dumped its last four games, including a surprising three-game sweep at the hands of the sub-.500 Royals over the weekend. That prompted Caesars books to open Twins at Brewers a -105 pick ‘em for an 8:10 p.m. ET first pitch.
The Dodgers host the Padres in the 9:40 p.m. ET nightcap, with both teams looking up at the first-place Rockies in the NL West. Caesars pegged this line Los Angeles -170/San Diego +155, and there was no movement Sunday night.
In the opening game on the Monday docket, a 6:05 p.m. ET start, the Braves close out a four-game set at the Phillies. Philadelphia, behind Aaron Nola, opened a -135 favorite Sunday night and quickly moved out to -142 at Caesars books.
MLB public betting
Not surprisingly, the Dodgers are the top choice in Consensus, landing 68 percent of early picks against the Padres. The Phillies drew 61 percent of picks against the Braves, while Twins-Brewers was closer to two-way action, with Minnesota taking 54 percent of early picks.
MLB
Monday, August 10
Trend Report
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Chi White Sox @ Detroit
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chi White Sox is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
Washington @ NY Mets
Washington
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Mets
NY Mets is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Tampa Bay @ Boston
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Boston
Tampa Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home
Minnesota @ Milwaukee
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Arizona @ Colorado
Arizona
Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games on the road
Colorado
Colorado is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games at home
Seattle @ Texas
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Texas
Texas
Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco @ Houston
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games on the road
Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Oakland @ LA Angels
Oakland
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oakland's last 11 games on the road
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Angels's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
San Diego @ LA Dodgers
San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Diego's last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Diego
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Monday, August 10
Trend Report
Atlanta @ Philadelphia
Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games
Atlanta is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 9 games at home
Chi White Sox @ Detroit
Chi White Sox
Chi White Sox is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Chi White Sox is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing Chi White Sox
Washington @ NY Mets
Washington
Washington is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Washington is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
NY Mets
NY Mets is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Mets's last 6 games when playing at home against Washington
Tampa Bay @ Boston
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 9-1 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Boston
Tampa Bay is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Boston
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Boston's last 5 games at home
Minnesota @ Milwaukee
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Milwaukee
Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Milwaukee
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Milwaukee is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Arizona @ Colorado
Arizona
Arizona is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Colorado
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Arizona's last 8 games on the road
Colorado
Colorado is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Colorado's last 6 games at home
Seattle @ Texas
Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games on the road
Seattle is 5-2 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Texas
Texas
Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Texas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
San Francisco @ Houston
San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Francisco's last 7 games when playing Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 9 games on the road
Houston
Houston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Oakland @ LA Angels
Oakland
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Oakland's last 11 games on the road
LA Angels
The total has gone OVER in 7 of LA Angels's last 8 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of LA Angels's last 5 games when playing at home against Oakland
San Diego @ LA Dodgers
San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Diego's last 9 games when playing on the road against LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Diego
LA Dodgers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
WNBA
Monday, August 10
Trend Report
Connecticut @ Atlanta
Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Connecticut
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Phoenix @ Dallas
Phoenix
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Chicago @ Seattle
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Chicago's last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Monday, August 10
Trend Report
Connecticut @ Atlanta
Connecticut
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Atlanta
Atlanta is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Connecticut
Atlanta is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Connecticut
Phoenix @ Dallas
Phoenix
Phoenix is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games at home
Chicago @ Seattle
Chicago
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Chicago's last 19 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago's last 9 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Stephen DeAngelo
Sunday’s comp play on the Orioles ended up being a no-play, as the game was suspended in the sixth inning because of rain (sucks, too, because Baltimore was leading 5-2 and set to cash as a +210 dog). Still on a 15-8 run with these freebies, hitting four of the last five overall, including three straight in the NBA.
For Monday, it’s back to the pro hardwood as we’ll grab the points with the Nuggets against the Lakers. As you may recall, I’ve faded the Lakers twice since the NBA restarted its season and cashed easily both times, as LA got blown out by both Toronto (107-92) and Houston (113-97).
The Lakers followed up Thursday’s loss to the Rockets with another defeat Saturday, falling 116-111 to Indiana as a 5½-point favorite. LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Co. have now dropped three in a row and four of their last five and — most importantly from a betting perspective — they’ve cashed just once in six games in Orlando. And even that spread-cover was shaky (8-point win over Utah as a 6-point chalk).
Conversely, the Nuggets enter this one on a 3-1 SU and ATS roll. Granted, Denver needed overtime to secure two of those wins and covers (134-132 over Utah as a 1-point dog and 121-113 over Oklahoma City as a 5½-point dog), but Nuggets backers still got paid.
These teams met three times in nine weeks between Dec. 3 and Feb. 12, with the visitor getting the win and cover in all three (LA beat the Nuggets in Denver by scores of 105-96 and 120-116 in overtime, while the Nuggets prevailed 128-104 in Hollywood). So while the Lakers own the advantage in the win column, Denver owns the most impressive victory — in other words, these squads are pretty even to me, making the handful of points we’re getting tonight quite enticing.
Keep in mind, too, that since a scintillating 9-2 ATS run from Feb. 10-March 8, the Lakers have cashed just one time (the Utah game) in their last seven contests. They also have just two outright wins in those seven games.
As I noted the other day, something’s not right with this Lakers squad. And until I see signs of them turning things around, I see no reason not fade them when they’re laying points against a quality opponent, one that’s 22 games over .500 with a 46-24 record.
4* DENVER (on a 1* to 5* rating system)
Sunday’s comp play on the Orioles ended up being a no-play, as the game was suspended in the sixth inning because of rain (sucks, too, because Baltimore was leading 5-2 and set to cash as a +210 dog). Still on a 15-8 run with these freebies, hitting four of the last five overall, including three straight in the NBA.
For Monday, it’s back to the pro hardwood as we’ll grab the points with the Nuggets against the Lakers. As you may recall, I’ve faded the Lakers twice since the NBA restarted its season and cashed easily both times, as LA got blown out by both Toronto (107-92) and Houston (113-97).
The Lakers followed up Thursday’s loss to the Rockets with another defeat Saturday, falling 116-111 to Indiana as a 5½-point favorite. LeBron James, Anthony Davis and Co. have now dropped three in a row and four of their last five and — most importantly from a betting perspective — they’ve cashed just once in six games in Orlando. And even that spread-cover was shaky (8-point win over Utah as a 6-point chalk).
Conversely, the Nuggets enter this one on a 3-1 SU and ATS roll. Granted, Denver needed overtime to secure two of those wins and covers (134-132 over Utah as a 1-point dog and 121-113 over Oklahoma City as a 5½-point dog), but Nuggets backers still got paid.
These teams met three times in nine weeks between Dec. 3 and Feb. 12, with the visitor getting the win and cover in all three (LA beat the Nuggets in Denver by scores of 105-96 and 120-116 in overtime, while the Nuggets prevailed 128-104 in Hollywood). So while the Lakers own the advantage in the win column, Denver owns the most impressive victory — in other words, these squads are pretty even to me, making the handful of points we’re getting tonight quite enticing.
Keep in mind, too, that since a scintillating 9-2 ATS run from Feb. 10-March 8, the Lakers have cashed just one time (the Utah game) in their last seven contests. They also have just two outright wins in those seven games.
As I noted the other day, something’s not right with this Lakers squad. And until I see signs of them turning things around, I see no reason not fade them when they’re laying points against a quality opponent, one that’s 22 games over .500 with a 46-24 record.
4* DENVER (on a 1* to 5* rating system)
Mitchell Newman
Monday's Bonus Play will be laying the points with the Los Angeles Lakers as they take on the Denver Nuggets.
L.A. has clinched the # 1 spot for the upcoming Western Conference playoffs, but with just a 2-4 mark in bubble play and 3 straight losses absorbed, you could say that Frank Vogel's team is in need of finishing up these last pair of games with some positive momentum.
Denver is looking to secure the # 3 seed in the West and they play this game off of a thrilling double-overtime win over the Utah Jazz on Saturday, The Nuggets did manage to win that game to make it 3 of 5 in the win column inside the Orlando bubble, but they also managed to squander a 6 point lead with 19 seconds remaining in regulation.
With Will Barton and Gary Harris expected to miss their 5th straight game and with Denver coming off of double-overtime and having played 2 of their last 4 games needing overtime to decide, I think this spot looks perfect for the Lakers to iron out some of their kinks before the postseason gets underway.
Take the Lakers minus the points.
3* L.A. LAKERS
Monday's Bonus Play will be laying the points with the Los Angeles Lakers as they take on the Denver Nuggets.
L.A. has clinched the # 1 spot for the upcoming Western Conference playoffs, but with just a 2-4 mark in bubble play and 3 straight losses absorbed, you could say that Frank Vogel's team is in need of finishing up these last pair of games with some positive momentum.
Denver is looking to secure the # 3 seed in the West and they play this game off of a thrilling double-overtime win over the Utah Jazz on Saturday, The Nuggets did manage to win that game to make it 3 of 5 in the win column inside the Orlando bubble, but they also managed to squander a 6 point lead with 19 seconds remaining in regulation.
With Will Barton and Gary Harris expected to miss their 5th straight game and with Denver coming off of double-overtime and having played 2 of their last 4 games needing overtime to decide, I think this spot looks perfect for the Lakers to iron out some of their kinks before the postseason gets underway.
Take the Lakers minus the points.
3* L.A. LAKERS
NBA line movement for August 10
Patrick Everson
Kyle Lowry and the Raptors are 4-1 SU and ATS inside the NBA Bubble in Orlando, heading into a Monday clash against the Bucks. FanDuel Sportsbook has Milwaukee a 5.5-point favorite.
NBA betting odds are on the board and drawing dollars for Monday’s five-game slate. Among the highlights in the NBA Bubble is a matchup between the Bucks and Raptors, the top two teams in the Eastern Conference, though both are locked in and don’t have much to play for.
Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s matchups.
NBA line movement
Toronto is among the hottest teams in the NBA Bubble, and in fact, the Raptors picked up where they left off pre-shutdown in March. Kyle Lowry and Co. are 4-1 SU and ATS in Orlando, after winning their last four SU back in March. Milwaukee has been a little back-and-forth in the bubble at 2-3 SU and ATS heading into this 6:30 p.m. ET clash.
FanDuel Sportsbook pegged the Bucks a 5.5-point favorite Sunday night, and there was no line movement.
Luka Doncic is catching a lot of eyes in the NBA Bubble, particularly for his 36-point effort in the Mavericks’ last outing, a 136-132 overtime victory Saturday against the aforementioned Bucks. However, Doncic will rest for this 3 p.m. ET tip, and most books don’t have the Mavs-Jazz line on the board yet.
In Monday’s 9 p.m. ET nightcap, the Lakers take on the Nuggets. Los Angeles, which has the West’s No. 1 seed wrapped up, opened a 4.5-point favorite at The SuperBook at Westgate and stretched to -5.5 Sunday night.
Patrick Everson
Kyle Lowry and the Raptors are 4-1 SU and ATS inside the NBA Bubble in Orlando, heading into a Monday clash against the Bucks. FanDuel Sportsbook has Milwaukee a 5.5-point favorite.
NBA betting odds are on the board and drawing dollars for Monday’s five-game slate. Among the highlights in the NBA Bubble is a matchup between the Bucks and Raptors, the top two teams in the Eastern Conference, though both are locked in and don’t have much to play for.
Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s matchups.
NBA line movement
Toronto is among the hottest teams in the NBA Bubble, and in fact, the Raptors picked up where they left off pre-shutdown in March. Kyle Lowry and Co. are 4-1 SU and ATS in Orlando, after winning their last four SU back in March. Milwaukee has been a little back-and-forth in the bubble at 2-3 SU and ATS heading into this 6:30 p.m. ET clash.
FanDuel Sportsbook pegged the Bucks a 5.5-point favorite Sunday night, and there was no line movement.
Luka Doncic is catching a lot of eyes in the NBA Bubble, particularly for his 36-point effort in the Mavericks’ last outing, a 136-132 overtime victory Saturday against the aforementioned Bucks. However, Doncic will rest for this 3 p.m. ET tip, and most books don’t have the Mavs-Jazz line on the board yet.
In Monday’s 9 p.m. ET nightcap, the Lakers take on the Nuggets. Los Angeles, which has the West’s No. 1 seed wrapped up, opened a 4.5-point favorite at The SuperBook at Westgate and stretched to -5.5 Sunday night.
737OKLAHOMA CITY -738 PHOENIX
PHOENIX is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.
739DALLAS -740 UTAH
UTAH is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread in the current season.
741TORONTO -742 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 34-14 ATS (18.6 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.
743INDIANA -744 MIAMI
INDIANA is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.
745DENVER -746 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 14-5 ATS (8.5 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.
PHOENIX is 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games after having won 4 or 5 of their last 6 games over the last 2 seasons.
739DALLAS -740 UTAH
UTAH is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread in the current season.
741TORONTO -742 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 34-14 ATS (18.6 Units) off a upset loss as a favorite in the last 3 seasons.
743INDIANA -744 MIAMI
INDIANA is 11-2 ATS (8.8 Units) in road games versus good ball handling teams - committing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.
745DENVER -746 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 14-5 ATS (8.5 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the current season.
NBA
Monday, August 10
Trend Report
Oklahoma City @ Phoenix
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas @ Utah
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 12 games when playing Utah
Utah
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Utah is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Dallas
Toronto @ Milwaukee
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home
Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Indiana @ Miami
Indiana
Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Indiana
Denver @ LA Lakers
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Lakers's last 9 games
Monday, August 10
Trend Report
Oklahoma City @ Phoenix
Oklahoma City
Oklahoma City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Oklahoma City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Phoenix
Phoenix
Phoenix is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Phoenix is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Dallas @ Utah
Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Dallas's last 12 games when playing Utah
Utah
Utah is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Dallas
Utah is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Dallas
Toronto @ Milwaukee
Toronto
Toronto is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Toronto is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
Milwaukee
Milwaukee is 17-2 SU in its last 19 games at home
Milwaukee is 8-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home
Indiana @ Miami
Indiana
Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Indiana is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Miami
Miami
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami's last 9 games when playing Indiana
Denver @ LA Lakers
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 5 games
Denver is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against LA Lakers
LA Lakers
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of LA Lakers's last 9 games
