Picks | Notes |
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#12 Sandro the Great | Clement charge has run just once on the turf, and that a solid 5th against open company MSW foes, who were a month better than this group, which is very modest; way too tough for these. |
#6 Neuro | Price player got the comeback out of the way, and he was sprinting too, so you know this was the plan all along, and with a bit of improvement he's in the mix; could spice up your exotics. |
#2 Tackle | Mott firster cost a robust 240k as a yearling, as he's out of a dam who is now 24, so they obviously liked him, but this is a patient barn, so he figures to need one; tabbing for down the road. |
Race Summary | There's no chance you get that 7-2 ML on the pick, not for these connections off that open MSW run, but even 2-1 seems like fair value, so make an aggressive win and place bet if the tote allows, though you'll get some guaranteed value by singling him in the late Pk5, and to kick off that late Pk4 as well, since he looks to have this suspect group over a barrel today. |
Picks | Notes |
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#2 Forza Di Oro | Mott runner had a little following off the MSW win at Belmont in October then didn't fire in the GII Remsen in November and hasn't been seen since, but he's been tearing it up in the AM, drew well, meets a crew there for the taking, and will be a price too; look out. |
#4 Lil Commissioner | Class riser was scratched out of a spot the other day to run here, and off that fast 20k win at Belmont this is an aggressive-and confident-rise in class, so he sure figures, and will be on or just off the pace too, but still, taking an underlaid price isn't ideal; trying to beat. |
#3 Liveyourbeastlife | Improving sort goes for an Abreu barn having a banner meet, and that close 3rd at Belmont says he's sitting on go here, and if Franco is aggressive he might have this one on a loose lead, which is never a bad place to be going long on this main track; do not ignore. |
Race Summary | Tab the tote on the 2, as you'd like to see him taking a bit of money off the long break, and if that's the case you can play hi in all the slots, though his real value comes in the late Pk5/Pk4, since he could fall the wagering cracks a bit, which means a win would go a long way in adding plenty of value to both sequences. |
Picks | Notes |
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#4 Thoughtfully | Asmussen miss was bet like a good thing on debut at CD and delivered in a complete laugher at odds-on, and while the waters obviously get deeper here, this is an extremely weak GII on paper, and she sure gives the look like she's going places; love her chances here. |
#5 Lucifers Lair | Pletcher charge was an easy winner here in her debut by 3, with something to spare too, and the fact she has a win over the track gives her a homecourt edge today, but the time was slow, so she's going to have to step it up if she wants to run with the pick; second-best. |
#2 Make Mischief | ML favorite dueled then held 2nd behind a romping winner in the local GIII last time, and the figure was a fast one, but that was a fluky race, as her 'mate was eased at odds-on, and the winner was almost 20-1, so she's tough to trust at short odds; tread very lightly. |
Race Summary | The 4 looks more like even-money than 2-1, so play her aggressively to win and place if you sniff anything close to that ML, though her real value comes in the late Pk5/Pk4, since you can single, which will allow for more coverage in the surrounding races, which look a lot deeper than this one, since the pick looks way too tough for a group that is very undistinguished on paper. |
Picks | Notes |
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#7 Rum on the Rocks | He has been pretty reliable over the local footing, and there are a couple of potential forward players who can ensure a fair pace to kick at. |
#9 Animal Kingston | Tough call on a guy who has been in with better in recent starts, but that form isn't anything to write home about, either. Wouldn't be a surprise to see him win this or finish a modest fifth. Your call at a likely underlaid price? |
#8 Autograph | Recent form is terrible, but that came on the main track, and there are a couple of decent turf efforts back in this one's form. Speed sticks around? |
Race Summary | Rum on the Rocks drops out of allowance company for this one, and a repeat of either of his last two would probably be good enough to handle this group. |
Picks | Notes |
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#5 Fastdriven | Not too excited to take a short price here, but who can go with him early? A couple of route pace players might try to hustle early, but his pace should keep him clear into the turn, and the guess is he never looks back. |
#7 Good Form | Showed a bit of pace going long on the dirt last out before settling for a distant third, and he's worth another look on the main track as he cuts back. Chase and finish run? |
#4 Gottsacker | Wouldn't want this dropper at something like the 6/5 ML price, as even though he has been in with some better groups, he's still 0-for-18 without a single exacta finish in his career. |
Race Summary | Fastdriven is the confirmed sprint pace in this one, and he shouldn't have much other company in the early going. 6/5 ML price Gottsacker can chase, but I'll take the sprint pace in this sprint spot. |
Picks | Notes |
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#7 Mr. Nobody | Rare call for a career maiden in a spot where he may be able to flash some finishing ability on the cutback while the pace may be coming back late. He's fully out of excuses, and I'd want something like 3/1 to take a chance, but the race flow may flatter him enough to get him home in a bad spot. |
#2 Allaboutbiz | Most likely winner has sharp pace while making the turf debut, but there are a pair of other players who may be able to keep him honest out of the gate. |
#4 Eveningwithbernie | Debuter doesn't meet much in here and won't have to be a star in order to land a piece of this out of the box. |
Race Summary | Mr. Nobody has been fairly reliable for a 20-start maiden, and he should get a nice pace to kick into while cutting back. He's all out of excuses, so maybe the shorter distance while legged up will perk him up. |
Picks | Notes |
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#6 SWEET TALKER | Followed winner’s move, finished second at big price. |
#3 WINDFALL PROFITS | Has speed, first-time Lasix and Brennan to drive. |
#7 COCONUT BEACH | New York invader hit board in half of 16 starts. |
Race Summary | Sweet Talker awakened at 22-1, following the move of the winner and getting up for second despite racing 5-wide in the stretch. She figures tough with a duplicate or move forward off that effort. Play a 3-6-7 exacta box. |
Picks | Notes |
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#4 FOX VALLEY BRITZKA | All-or-nothing type if there ever was one, gets call by default. |
#2 BLUEBIRD MAVERICK | Chased 2-to-5 winner around the track, gained late. |
#1 GUCCIO’S JODINE | Showed pulse in recent qualifiers, draws rail, price attached. |
Race Summary | Fox Valley Britzka raced in another area code as a 4-to-5 failure, but it’s hard to believe he was that bad without reason. He either shows up or he doesn’t tonight. Play a 4 with 1,2 with ALL trifecta. |
Picks | Notes |
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#1 GONE AWAY AS | Rallied to win, expect improvement, rail a plus. |
#2 OMYHEART | Won 3 of 4 at fairs, has to pick up the pace. |
#6 BEST VALUE | Distant second to Omyheart, not out of this. |
Race Summary | Gone Away As benefited from a couple rivals breaking stride, but he sustained a first-over bid to win after the pace picked up a bit in the third quarter. He gets the nod from the rail. Play 1-2 and 1-6 exactas. |
Picks | Notes |
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#1 Redyornothereicome | Has been on the board in five of six distance races and held third in a tough spot last time; has enough speed to be in a good forward position and could be difficult to catch. |
#3 Barefootbootlegger | Improved position from the start but hung late; can be closer to the action throughout. |
#5 Comfort Me Now | Stretches out again after an appearance going 5.5 furlongs, when he closed very well from ninth to fourth; won going longer three races back. |
Race Summary | Redornothereicome improved in his latest and had been in some strong sprints; has a chance to control this one. |
Picks | Notes |
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#6 Pass the Plate | Tough to get a wider trip turning for home in the G3 Regret and still finished fourth; a smooth trip will make her tough to deal with late in the game. |
#1 In Good Spirits | Has been a solid player in distance turf races in Kentucky and comes off a third in the G3 Regret; can be close from the start. |
#10 Dreamalildreamofu | Had the speed to get in good position from the outside post and has a decent chance to set a controlled pace. |
Race Summary | Pass the Plate was buggy-whipped eight wide out of the far turn and into the lane last time and can get a much better trip; there's pace to set up her late run. |
Picks | Notes |
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#2 Fancy Liquor | Has been game in all four starts and lost a three-horse photo in the G3 Transylvania; troublesome on the front end. |
#3 Andesite | Was a non-threatening fourth in his first since being unplaced in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf; ran well on grass last year, including a shape maiden score to debut over this course last year. |
#4 Billy Batts | Was second in the G1 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Turf last year and has not been as solid in his last three; strong if he gets back to running the way he has shown. |
Race Summary | Fancy Liquor is lightly raced compared to many in here and has shown an ability to mix it up on or near the front end. Getting better with experience and can dig in here. |