A few I like...
- Merab Dvilishvili -255 and over 2.5 -365 - Dude is a takedown machine. His plan is to control the fight with constant takedowns and a little bit of ground and pound in between. Only concern with Merab is he's not good at keeping his opponents down. He’s great at take downs, but as soon as he postures up to throw strikes he gives opponent’s an opening to get up. Fortunately his cardio is amazing and he can take them right back down again. This could be a rather favorable matchup for Dodson, who has pretty good takedown defense, and is the superior striker. Dodson has the quicker, crisper boxing, but suffers from a reach/height disadvantage. While his takedown defense numbers look great, Dodson has not faced as aggressive of a grappler as Merab. Merab will constantly look to pressure and wear on Dodson. Some fighters are willing to take a shot to give a shot. With Merab, it’s almost like he looks to have a cardio match with you where he’ll look to expend energy with takedowns and force you to use your energy to get back up to eventually tire you out. Dodson could even steal a decision here if he is able to scramble well and score enough on the feet to mitigate the takedowns. You never know how the judges will score the takedowns. If Merab is able to land 3 takedowns a round but Dodson is able to land a few more shots on the feet he could very well win on some scorecards. While a KO is not impossible, I think it is unlikely as Merab is a pretty tough dude. Dodson is quick and can pack a punch, but I think with Merab’s strength and cardio, he will be able to get the takedowns and do enough on the ground to get the decision though.
- Sean O’Malley -250 - Sean is a -280 favorite and while I think the line is overpriced, I do think Sean absolutely has the potential to look like that big of a favorite come fight night. Vera is a legit opponent and is definitely a step up in competition. Vera is very well rounded, and is an absolute dog. He is pretty strong for his size and can turn any fight into a brawl. Furthermore his BJJ is top notch (even though his wrestling is not great). One of his downsides though, is that he tends to get hit. Vera’s distance striking is not great and really needs to get close to be effective. This will definitely play to the strengths of O’Malley who has good footwork and is really good at distance management. The smaller cage will work against him, but O’Malley has had plenty of experience in a smaller cage and the effect should be minimal for the lighter weight classes. I think in terms of striking O’Malley is on another level. He’s great at throwing feints, setting traps and cutting angles. He’ll also use his striking to set up his kicks. Although O’Malley has only fought lower level guys, he has looked great doing it. He has shown great technique, composure, and accuracy in his striking during this time. We have yet to see what his grappling and BJJ is like, but Vera isn’t really a grappler. The only hole I’ve seen so far with O’Malley is potentially his cardio. He went 3 rounds with Soukhamthat (where he got injured) and Ware (where despite looking visibly fatigued in the 3rd he was still evading shots and throwing a decent volume). I think the UFC knows they have a potential superstar and are giving O’Malley the perfect fights to test and build him up. Vera is a tough opponent, and I think he’s definite top 15 in the division. A good test to see how O’Malley will fare against a top 15 guy who is a brawler and to see if he can go the distance against someone who isn’t a total can. If he wins I think his next opponent will be someone who has a grapple heavy gameplan but isn’t elite, maybe Stamann, but going back to the task at hand I think O’Malley passes this test. I see this fight being a 3 round affair with it being bloody for both guys. Vera’s never been knocked out, but I wouldn’t be surprised if O’Malley pulls it off, he has the tools to and there’s a first for everything.
- Stipe Miocic/Daniel Cormier Over 2.5 -150 - I look at this fight and keep going back and forth with it. I’m leaning Miocic and will likely have some action on him as well. DC's knockout in the first fight was a little flukey imho. I don’t think Stipe had fully recovered from the Ngannou fight, and DC was able to catch him. This is reinforced by the fact that a year later, DC threw everything at Stipe and Stipe just took it. Granted DC was winning 2, arguably 3 of those rounds in the rematch. DC likes to keep his arms extended in front of him instead of tight and up close like a traditional guard(mummy gaurd) which allows him to grab at his opponents hands to set up the takedown, mitigate the jab, set up the clinch, or eye poke. The mummy guard sets up a large part of DC’s arsenal, and was giving Stipe a lot of trouble in the first fight and through the first 3 rounds of the rematch. However, this opens up his body for those nasty body shots Stipe was landing. With that in mind, I don’t think DC will be using that mummy guard as much, knowing how effective those body shots were. BUT, without the mummy guard, he opens himself up to the jab, which Stipe will use very effectively with his significant reach advantage. I'm thinking this time Stipe will have the slight advantage on the feet. DC will still have faster hands and his boxing is pretty solid, so I don’t think it’ll be a crazy mismatch. Furthermore, DC will likely still use the mummy guard a bit, but not extensively. This, in addition to the fact that he has stated this himself, leads me to believe DC will use a more wrestling heavy approach, which should easily take this match past the halfway point. The only way I see this not happening is if DC comes out swinging and catches Stipe. Just not likely a 41 year old DC will be able to employ that stategy...or at least stategy will remove that option. On the other side of it, I don’t think Stipe will be able to catch a fresh DC. Despite being the heavier guy, DC is a bit quicker, and coupled with his wrestling ability, even if he does get rocked, he can always grab the single leg and look to recover. If DC mixes in the wrestling, I think they’ll both survive long enough to make it past the halfway point.
