i think middling is a losing proposition
when you miss you lose 10% juice, which is 1/10 of the amount of bet. you have to hit 1 out of 10 to break even.
you have to be lucky. however the longer you play middles you will notice you will average hitting i over 10 games.
i killed the sportsbooks 2 years ago with their 20% &15% bonuses(1X), they were playing each other. whats nice is those 2.5-3.5 & 6.5-7.5 and hits the 3&7. you hit both sides. jackpot
when you miss you lose 10% juice, which is 1/10 of the amount of bet. you have to hit 1 out of 10 to break even.
you have to be lucky. however the longer you play middles you will notice you will average hitting i over 10 games.
i killed the sportsbooks 2 years ago with their 20% &15% bonuses(1X), they were playing each other. whats nice is those 2.5-3.5 & 6.5-7.5 and hits the 3&7. you hit both sides. jackpot
Personally, I would not waste my money unless you have the opportunity to middle a key NFL number where you can win both sides. I have a sheet in my files, which I cannot find, that shows the most common margin of victory over the past decade in the NFL. I am certain someone else can supply this information.
Obviously "3" is the most common spread. If you can find -2.5 and +3.5 that is usually worth a play. I usually stick to key numbers where I think the game has an appropriate line (one where I do not like either side) or a game where there is a large line movement. Of course in the later example, you must play the game early or have a local book who locks in a line.
With that being said, it awfully difficult to middle any game.
Obviously "3" is the most common spread. If you can find -2.5 and +3.5 that is usually worth a play. I usually stick to key numbers where I think the game has an appropriate line (one where I do not like either side) or a game where there is a large line movement. Of course in the later example, you must play the game early or have a local book who locks in a line.
With that being said, it awfully difficult to middle any game.
it depends a LOT on the matchups. I use distributions that work better in baskets with more points scored, but they are pretty good in predicting who wins by what as a percentage. A couple things that I also look at are historical point differentials between the two teams, point differentials to other teams, fg's made/attempted vs TD's, playing styles (run/pass), coaching philosophy. It all adds up to whether or not I think the team wins by exactly 7 (I dont middle enough to care much about the 6).
If I really liked the team to cover the 6, I would open team A -6 for 1.5%, if the line moved to 7 or showed up as a 7, I would look closely to how significant the 7 is to the matchup. The actual book that hangs the 7 is very important. If it's a jackass book like SIA, then it's not very significant, they inflate their lines with the public (and they arent very good at it either). If it's PINNACLE then I look closely at ML movements and see what their agenda is. If after looking at everything I conclude that team A wins by exactly 7 appx 20% then I would put appx 1% on +7.5 buying half a point at -120 or less. It depends a LOT on how much I liked team A to cover the 6 though. If I took Team A on Tuesday, and by Saturday I felt that I put too much on them then I may put more on the middle opp as a +EV hedge, depending on the ML I can get on +7 and +7.5. The books hate to get middled in the NFL, and that is one reason the lines dont move much. In the NCAA there are much bigger line moves and I middle a lot more often on those games because there are a lot of games that I dont have much of an opinon on but I know I can get at least 4 points in-between with locals etc. The totals also have some relevance for middling, I like low totals.
If I really liked the team to cover the 6, I would open team A -6 for 1.5%, if the line moved to 7 or showed up as a 7, I would look closely to how significant the 7 is to the matchup. The actual book that hangs the 7 is very important. If it's a jackass book like SIA, then it's not very significant, they inflate their lines with the public (and they arent very good at it either). If it's PINNACLE then I look closely at ML movements and see what their agenda is. If after looking at everything I conclude that team A wins by exactly 7 appx 20% then I would put appx 1% on +7.5 buying half a point at -120 or less. It depends a LOT on how much I liked team A to cover the 6 though. If I took Team A on Tuesday, and by Saturday I felt that I put too much on them then I may put more on the middle opp as a +EV hedge, depending on the ML I can get on +7 and +7.5. The books hate to get middled in the NFL, and that is one reason the lines dont move much. In the NCAA there are much bigger line moves and I middle a lot more often on those games because there are a lot of games that I dont have much of an opinon on but I know I can get at least 4 points in-between with locals etc. The totals also have some relevance for middling, I like low totals.
You guys painting with too broad a brush. -6/+7 with -110 each side is not good because there is not a 10% chance of the team winning by 6 or 7. However, make that -105 per side and then count me in. At -105's you only need a 5% chance as the payout is 20 to 1. -6/+7 with -105's is the same as having -5.5/+7.5 at -110.
You just can't say 'middling football is bad' or 'you shoudl never play it where you can't win both. That's silly. It all depends on the odds. Middling football is great IMO because there are so many books out there offering reduced juice and/or free half points to go along with other opinionated lines.
The way to determine if a side/middle is worth a shot is to calculate how often you need to hit to come out ahead and then check the charts to see how often the favorite wins by that margin.
Middling with -110's is generally not going to do real well, but if you use reduced juice you can really leverage your middling opportunities.
You just can't say 'middling football is bad' or 'you shoudl never play it where you can't win both. That's silly. It all depends on the odds. Middling football is great IMO because there are so many books out there offering reduced juice and/or free half points to go along with other opinionated lines.
The way to determine if a side/middle is worth a shot is to calculate how often you need to hit to come out ahead and then check the charts to see how often the favorite wins by that margin.
Middling with -110's is generally not going to do real well, but if you use reduced juice you can really leverage your middling opportunities.
Brewster, just remember a basic rule is never middle without a 1.5 point diff minumum. Even at 1.5, you can't be laying -110 each way. You really need to search out the -107's, -105's, etc. As far as the nfl goes, you wan't to cover the key #'s with the middle, not have one of them as a play.. To answer the question, no, not a lot of guys would play your example..
