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Any insight or chatter? Tough field and top heavy...

I find The Memorial to be a good comp. And looking back past 2 years, guys who Top13 Memorial find there way into Top 13 TPC Boston. 2018 had 8 golfers T13 or better Memorial who T13 TPC Boston. 2018 last time at TPC Boston.

Winner should come in around -15 or 16 under.

Course should play more like the PGA Championship. Bombers will have a big edge. I think a key stat is iron play for the bombers in the 175-200 range. And for less bombers iron play 200+. Some long par 3’s will be a difference in the field.

Big Tournaments/Majors have been producing winners in the 20-35 range past few years. Seems to be the sweet spot.

Studs tend to dominate this course. Studs are bombers go figure.

I have noticed it tends to be a painted top 5 leaderboard. Meaning multiple countries top 5. With Americans winning.

An Australian has placed top 5 past 4/5. A bit of wind twirls threw here and could be a reason for Aussies doing okay as they are known wind guys.

Any thoughts on these guys?

1. Berger win T5! He is in great form and crushing fields with high placements.

2. Finau T5! Great run/form but has yet to close or chase down a win on Sunday. Lots of leaderboard hunts for him past year or 2 and has the distance. Putter has been much better of late. He will win a big one soon.

3. Hatton T5! Iron game sharp but putter cooled off PGA. Nice bounce back as I’m sure many are salty with his PGA dud.

4. Cantlay win T5! Couldn’t putt anything at PGA. Under radar in laoded field.

4. Leischman T5 T10! Aussie guy. Always shows up somewhere he shouldn’t. May be good spot this tournament with nice finishes here in past and even a T5. T5 at Memorial.

5. Casey T5! Great history here. Been dialed in. Just can’t putt. Playing great of late and has superior iron game which is needed here. And is a big hitter surprisingly, so he is a quiet bomber.

6. Xander win! Checks all the key stat boxes but has yet to close. Due a win but not much value for T5

7. Wolff T5 T10! Playing great and about to really break through. Distance and irons are great. Putting weakness but it’s always a factor that players can just get hot and even a field average putting can bring a win.

8. Bryson checks every box and crushes this course. It’s to win or nothing.

9. Day win T5! Aussie who is on fire with top 10 or better in last several tournaments. Good history here. T5 May be a good value.

10. Nasty Yams (Mats) Can’t putt for shit but always places high with top 5’s at both courses past couple years. Great ball striker and driver with sneaky distance.

The memorial comp and history to this course from this year trend shows guys outside top 5 do better at TPC Boston in same year. Following are Grillo, Rose, Woods, Fowler, Xander, An

Looking at a few of these as of today. Any input throw it out there or chime in who you like bet wise!


T10 values (10-1 or more only)
Mitchell 30-1
Norlander 20-1
Kokrak 18-1
Fritelli 14-1
Grillo 15-1
Redman 12-1
An 10-1
Leischman 10-1

T5
An 22-1
Leischman 20-1
Wolff 11-1
Fowler 11-1
Rose 11-1

To win
Berger 33-1
Cantlay 30-1
Reed 30-1
Xander 22-1
 

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Like Finau & Berger this week. Reed probably a good play but I just can't pull for him, never cared for him.
 

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Like Finau as well and hate to miss hiss big win. But he has yet to close or chase a Sunday. Form has been solid. I think Speith can make a run. He has to go all out and score and place high to advance. He is a great putter and striker but his tee game is horrible. Maybe the big fairways allow him to cover his downside. Rose, Fowler, Speith all need big top 10 at least finish to advance. All in not great form. But all 3 have great course comps and wins here that match similar wins on bentgrass fast greens like Augusta, Memorial, Murfiled slick fast greens.

To Win
Berger 33-1
Day 22-1
Cantlay 30-1
DJ 20-1

Top 5
Finau 6-1
Xander 5-1
Berger 7-1
Cantlay 6-1
Tiger 8-1

Top 5 (these guys have to press and go all out to advance to BMW) and all three are in horrible form but maybe this nothing to lose attitude gets em loose. Maybe one gets lucks and squeaks in.
Speith 14-1
Rose 12-1
Fowler 11-1


Top 10
Speith 7-1
Leischman 10-1
Fritelli 14-1
Norlander 20-1

Top 20
Speith 3-1
An 4-1
Leischman 5-1
Fritelli 7-1
Grillo 8-1
Norlander 10-1
 

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BMW? Any thoughts?

Course looks to play easy and long. Rough is bit thick and set up par 70 seems to look but like TPC Harding and Murfiled. Hard to tell if rough is going to be that costly. Do believe good chipping and putting around greens is bigger factor than PGA Championship. Don’t think it’s a bombers course as much as it appears. Steady Eddie guys may do very well. Best value may come after day 1.


Win
Day 28-1
Cantlay 33-1
English 35-1
Scott 40-1


T5
Tiger 7-1
Kisner 8-1

T10
Mckenzie 8-1
Na 8-1



T20
Day +110
Cantlay +120
English +125
Scott +130
Gooch 4-1
Mackenzie 4-1
 

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Add on

Win/T20
Ancer 80-1. 4-1
Louie ooie 65-1 3-1

1st rd leader EW 1-5
Bottom of the barrel long shots...

Gooch,Mackenzie,Niemman 80-1
Todd, Ancer, Louie ooie, Palmer60-1

Korn Ferry Flyers win/Top10 all 3-1
Hodges 30-1
Riley 28-1
Hardy 30-1
Kirk 33-1
Martin 33-1
Pendrith 33-1
Young 28-1
 

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To win final card

Webb 12-1
Bison 23-1
Berger 26-1
Morikawa 22-1

Hole in 1 NO -110
Playoff YES +600

Top Non USA/Euro
Munoz +750
Ancer +1200

Top 5
English 5-1
Im 9-1
Todd 9-1
Hatton 10-1
Kisner 15-1
 

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