Saturday Service Play Thread 09/05/2020

BuzzKill · Aug 30, 2020

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BuzzKill · Sep 4, 2020

Newsletters - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=308&p=13240130&viewfull=1#post13240130

ryangenero · Sep 5, 2020

Football Jesus NCAA football Underdog play Middle Tenn State +points

bmd1803 · Sep 5, 2020

Ralph Michaels

3% 1H Army -3.0 (-110)

FIRST HALF #242 3% Army -2.5/-3 Middle Tenn 1:30 PM

When teams have an option opponent on their schedule they start working on them in the spring and do some work on them almost weekly in August. Well. Middle Tenn didn’t even have this game scheduled until Aug 10th. How often do you watch a team that has practiced to face the option look foolish in the opening drive against the schemes? Middle allowed 5.4 ypc on the road LY and this season and lost 3 of top 4 tacklers and 8 of top 12.

bmd1803 · Sep 5, 2020

Jeffrey James

#242 Army Black Knights -3 (1:30 edt) CBSSN

A very important fact here is that this game was not on the original schedules of these teams - it was a late COVID added game with all other schedules falling apart. That means the Blue Raiders were not anticipating playing Army and Army is one of the toughest teams to prepare for since not many teams run the triple option. Now through in MTSU only has 5 returning starters on defense and you have a young, inexperienced defense playing an offense they are completely unfamiliar with. Now add in an Army team coming into this season off of their worst season in years so they will be full of motivation here. Lay this small number with Army here.

bmd1803 · Sep 5, 2020

Matt Blunt (VegasInsider)
CFB
Memphis -10.5 (1st half)
Middle Tennessee +4
Middle Tennessee/Army Under 27.5 (1st half)
SMU/Texas State Over 69

bmd1803 · Sep 5, 2020

Michael Crosson (VegasInsider)
NBA
Best Bet - Play of the Day - Clippers/Nuggets Over 222
Regular Play - LA Clippers -9

bmd1803 · Sep 5, 2020

Tony Mejia (VegasInsider - NBA) - Raptors/Celtics Under 214

bmd1803 · Sep 5, 2020

Kevin Rogers (VegasInsider - NBA) - Denver Nuggets +9.5

bmd1803 · Sep 5, 2020

WUnderdog

NCAAFB

Middle Tennesee State/Army 55.5 Under

ConleyPicks · Sep 5, 2020

Emory Hunt

CFB Season 2019-2020

Final Record

ATS

8-5 Aug
24-15 Sept
35-18 Oct
28-18 Nov
2-2 Dec

97-58 63% ATS Regular Season

Bowls

19-20 49%

Moneyline 0-0

Totals 0-0

All 116-78 60%

Net Units +34.1 at 5% juice

FEATURED PICK

ARMY -3.5
MIDDLE TENN. @ ARMY | 9/05 | 1:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:14 PM
Defensively, Middle Tennessee State has an excellent safety in Gregory Grate Jr., who I expect to have an extremely active role against Army. What is troubling about this matchup is that the Blue Raiders' defense has had to replace seven starters, and this matchup against Army wasn't originally on the schedule as it was a replacement game for a contest cancelled due to the coronavirus pandemic. It's tough to prepare for the triple option on such short notice, especially after not practicing in the spring and having truncated summer workouts.

2-1 IN LAST 3 ARMY ATS PICKS | +90

FEATURED PICK

SMU -22
SMU @ TEXAS ST. | 9/05 | 4:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:12 PM
With four players stuck in quarantine, including starting QB Tyler Vitt, makes this an even bigger hill to climb for the Bobcats. SMU has QB Shane Buechele airing it out behind all five returning offensive lineman, leading an offense that was seventh in the nation in scoring last season. I expect this one to get out of hand pretty quickly.

3-1 IN LAST 4 SMU ATS PICKS | +190

ConleyPicks · Sep 5, 2020

Barrett Sallee

CFB Season 2019-2020

Final Record

ATS

3-1 Aug
9-7 Sept
6-5 Oct
14-7 Nov
2-0 Dec

34-20 63% ATS Regular Season
11-5 69% ATS Bowls

45-25 64% ATS All

Moneyline 0-2 -2 Units

12-6 67% Totals Regular Season
3-3 Totals Bowls

15-9 63% Totals All

All 60-36 63%

Net Units +22.3 at 5% juice

ARKANSAS ST. +19
ARKANSAS ST. @ MEMPHIS | 9/05 | 8:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:24 PM
I love Tigers quarterback Brady White and everything that first-year coach Ryan Silverfield brings to the table. The transition from coach Mike Novell shouldn’t be too challenging. But the Red Wolves are no slouch in the quarterback department either with Logan Bonner and Layne Hatcher going into the season as “co-starters.” Coach Blake Anderson will crank up his multi-dimensional offense and at least keep it within the number.

UNDER 69.5
SMU @ TEXAS ST. | 9/05 | 4:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:22 PM
As you see, I’m clearly backing SMU this year — especially because of that offense. But in Game 1, with very little time to work out some minor changes under new offensive coordinator Garrett Riley, there could be some growing pains. Because of that, expect a sloppy game that the Mustangs handle with ease. They just won’t win any beauty contests.

SMU -22
SMU @ TEXAS ST. | 9/05 | 4:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 4:20 PM
Check out the AAC predictions we posted on CBSSports.com, and you’ll notice how high I am on the future conference champion SMU Mustangs. Sonny Dykes has quarterback Shane Buechele back on a team that is loaded with talent — both homegrown and through transfers — including star wide receiver Reggie Roberson. There won’t be a home field advantage regardless of the crowd, Texas State was 0-4-1 against the spread at home last year and is still deep in rebuilding mode.

ConleyPicks · Sep 5, 2020

Mike Tierney

OVER 69
SMU @ TEXAS ST. | 9/05 | 4:30 PM EDT
3:23 PM
The total has understandably inched up but, being still shy of 70, it demands an Over. Both defenses were sieves last season, allowing about 33 points per game each. SMU averaged 43 points scored and slapped 47 on Texas State a year ago. Bobcats QB Tyler Vitt is quarantined, but he likely had lost the starting gig to Memphis transfer Brady McBride, who has a galaxy of targets at his disposal.

ARMY -3.5
MIDDLE TENN. @ ARMY | 9/05 | 1:30 PM EDT
3:08 PM
The Army offense is licking its chops. The Blue Raiders, whose defense was rock-bottom in the C-USA and sends out mostly new starters, confront an option offense that is unfamiliar to them. In last year’s matchup, the Black Knights maintained ball possession for about two-thirds of the clock. MTSU’s top two RBs opted out this season and what’s left of its quick-tempo offense cannot score from the sidelines.

ConleyPicks · Sep 5, 2020

Anthony Stabile (VegasInsider)
Kentucky Derby
#17 Tiz the Law - W/P/S
Exacta/Trifecta/Superfecta Box - 17-2-3-16

ConleyPicks · Sep 5, 2020

Michael Crosson (VegasInsider)
Kentucky Derby
#18 Authentic - W/P/S
Exacta/Trifecta/Superfecta Box - 18-6-10-17

ConleyPicks · Sep 5, 2020

The Wizard

Churchill Downs
Race 14 :
#16 to WIN
#16/17 Exacta Box
#16,17/ over 2,13,18 Exacta ( Reverse for 1/4 as much played )
#16,17/ over 2,6,13,15,16,17,18/ over ALL Trifecta

ConleyPicks · Sep 5, 2020

Jeffrey James

#242 Army Black Knights -3 (1:30 edt) CBSSN

A very important fact here is that this game was not on the original schedules of these teams - it was a late COVID added game with all other schedules falling apart. That means the Blue Raiders were not anticipating playing Army and Army is one of the toughest teams to prepare for since not many teams run the triple option. Now through in MTSU only has 5 returning starters on defense and you have a young, inexperienced defense playing an offense they are completely unfamiliar with. Now add in an Army team coming into this season off of their worst season in years so they will be full of motivation here. Lay this small number with Army here.

ConleyPicks · Sep 5, 2020

Ralph Michaels

3% 1H Army -3.0 (-110)

FIRST HALF #242 3% Army -2.5/-3 Middle Tenn 1:30 PM

When teams have an option opponent on their schedule they start working on them in the spring and do some work on them almost weekly in August. Well. Middle Tenn didn’t even have this game scheduled until Aug 10th. How often do you watch a team that has practiced to face the option look foolish in the opening drive against the schemes? Middle allowed 5.4 ypc on the road LY and this season and lost 3 of top 4 tacklers and 8 of top 12.

bmd1803 · Sep 5, 2020

SAN DIEGO (24 - 16) at OAKLAND (22 - 13) - 4:10 PM
CHRIS PADDACK (R) vs. SEAN MANAEA (L)

Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 6-19 (-14.2 Units) against the money line in road games against left-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 118-78 (+26.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 25-11 (+13.9 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 65-33 (+20.5 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 81-51 (+23.5 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 141-106 (+26.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 85-54 (+32.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 43-31 (+16.5 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 46-33 (+30.3 Units) against the money line in road games after shutting out their opponent since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 (+1.3 Units) against OAKLAND this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)
CHRIS PADDACK vs. OAKLAND since 1997
No recent starts.
SEAN MANAEA vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
MANAEA is 0-0 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.57 and a WHIP of 0.857.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.2 units)

bmd1803 · Sep 5, 2020

MIAMI (16 - 17) at TAMPA BAY (27 - 12) - 6:40 PM
SANDY ALCANTARA (R) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)

Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 27-12 (+10.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 20-7 (+11.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
TAMPA BAY is 19-7 (+10.8 Units) against the money line after a win this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 4-0 (+4.0 Units) against MIAMI this season
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=-0.2 Units, Under=-0.0 Units)
SANDY ALCANTARA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
ALCANTARA is 0-1 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 11.25 and a WHIP of 2.000.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)
BLAKE SNELL vs. MIAMI since 1997
SNELL is 1-0 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

Saturday Service Play Thread 09/05/2020

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Let's go Brandon!

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