Thursday Service Play Thread 09/10/2020

BuzzKill · Sep 6, 2020

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ryangenero · Sep 7, 2020

Football Jesus NFL FREE pick is under total in Texans/Chiefs

BuzzKill · Sep 9, 2020

Newsletters - http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=971451&page=309&p=13245761#post13245761

bmd1803 · Sep 10, 2020

Adam Chernoff

KC/Houston Over 54.5

bmd1803 · Sep 10, 2020

Brian Bitler

10* NFL Kickoff Investment

Texans
I think head coach Bill O’Brien is on his last rope here one more bad year or bad start to the season and I believe he will be fired in Houston. This Texans team I believe will be eating nails and spitting fire out of the gate on Thursday. This is way to many points as I see this being a 1 touchdown win for either team here. If you can buy a half point to get to 10 do it. The road team has dominated the spread over the last 12 meetings going 9-3 ATS. Road team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Invest 10 units on the Houston Texans rotation #451 with the points

bmd1803 · Sep 10, 2020

Michael Crosson (VegasInsider - NBA)
Western Conference Game #4 - Lakers vs Rockets
Best Bet - Lakers/Rockets Over 220

bmd1803 · Sep 10, 2020

Matt Blunt (VegasInsider - NFL) - Houston Texans +9

bmd1803 · Sep 10, 2020

baseball33
Cleveland Indians - Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians -1.5

bmd1803 · Sep 10, 2020

Big Al
KC Chiefs

ConleyPicks · Sep 10, 2020

Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
YESTERDAY 11:37 PM

OVER 54.5
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
Even though Houston traded away DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans still have Deshaun Watson throwing to Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. Watson typically plays well against the Chiefs, who have some issues in their secondary. I think Houston will hold up its end of the bargain, and with K.C.'s explosive offense, this game will go Over.

ConleyPicks · Sep 10, 2020

Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 10:33 AM

A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Mike Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. Mike does not consider himself a pet lover. But he likes 'dogs, preferring to evaluate each game from the underdog's point of view. Mike has used that philosophy to dominate the NFL, going 66-44 ATS (60 percent) in 2019 and 63-46 ATS (58 percent) in 2018. All-time at SportsLine (2016-19), Mike is 282-222 on all NFL picks, returning $3,704 to $100 players.

KANSAS CITY -9.5
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
If a Super Bowl hangover exists, recent numbers suggest it kicks in later in the season, not during opening week. Since 2000, the defending champions have gone 13-6-1 ATS in their first game after popping champagne. Spreads pushing double figures usually call for a pick on the barking underdog, but Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes throws traditional thinking out the window. Counting the postseason, Kansas City won its final six contests by 10 or more points. Houston QB Deshaun Watson, who just received a Mahomes-like contract, has been lethal against KC but must adjust to life without departed WR DeAndre Hopkins. Good luck with that.

12-4 IN LAST 16 KC ATS PICKS | +755

8-5-1 IN LAST 14 HOU ATS PICKS | +253

Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
FRI 9/4

UNDER 54
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
With the memory of the 82-point shootout in last year’s playoff matchup still fresh, the public has settled on a massive total. Consider that the Texans jumped ahead 21-0, which threw the game out of whack. Count on a more conventional game, perhaps with Houston chewing clock behind new RB David Johnson while adjusting to the absence of WR De'Andre Hopkins. Offensively, defending Super Bowl champs tend to break slowly from the gate.

8-3-1 IN LAST 12 HOU O/U PICKS | +470

Mike McClure
MONEY
FRI 5/8

KANSAS CITY -10
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
I like the Chiefs at -10 or fewer in the season opener at Arrowhead Stadium. Removing Deshaun Watson can be a tough assignment, but removing DeAndre Hopkins from the equation certainly helps the Chiefs defensively in this matchup. The Super Bowl Champs got even stronger on offensive by adding Clyde Edwards-Helaire to the mix. My simulations make the Chiefs -12.5 at home. Lay it.

6-1 IN LAST 7 HOU ATS PICKS | +494

3-1 IN LAST 4 KC ATS PICKS | +190

ConleyPicks · Sep 10, 2020

Brett Anderson
THE DOG WHISPERER
1:54 PM

UNDER 54.5
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
Maybe Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and the world champs don’t need preseason games as much as the rest of the league, but it’s hard to envision any team hitting the gas and going from 0 to 80 in Week 1. No preseason and little offseason is bound to keep scoring down. And as great as the Chiefs’ offense has been, K.C. still went Under the total 9 of 19 games last season. The Texans went Under 10 times. This won’t be a sequel to these teams’ playoff shootout. Take the Under.

3-0 IN LAST 3 KC O/U PICKS | +300

ConleyPicks · Sep 10, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Thursday, Sep 10 2020 8:20PM
452 KAN -2.5(-130) BetOnline vs 451 HOU double-dime bet

Analysis: With all of our teaser plays this season, it is important to find books that charge reasonable prices for these teasers. There are plenty of locals who still charge -120 for a six point teaser (and even some who charge only -110!). In this instance of a 6.5 point teaser, you should be able to find -130 if you have a few outs, and I personally have a few shops who only charge -120. However, I will grade it at -130.

2* 6.5 POINT TEASER KC -2.5/DEN +9 -130

- Backing the defending super bowl champion in week 1 for their home opener has been a super profitable angle, and I love that we get to do that with a Chiefs team who has won and covered nine consecutive games going back to last season. The Chiefs are historically very hot starters under HC Andy Reid (they have won and covered 5 straight season openers), while they are set to return 20 of 22 starters from their super bowl squad. In a year where we should be valuing continuity early in the season, no team is more qualified in that department then the Chiefs.

Denver is a remarkable 33-4 SU since 1989 at home in weeks 1-2. The logic in this is simple: Teams are not in game shape early in the season, and not being used to the altitude in Denver fatigues them, especially later in the game. This year, that will be more true then ever, as the Titans obviously had no preseason to get their conditioning right for week one. By now, the market knows about this angle, but I power rate the game Titans -1, so I do not believe the market is fully accounting for it. The overreaction to the Von Miller injury is giving us value on Denver and giving us value on the optimal teaser strategy (teasing a small underdog up in a game with a low total). The fact that this game starts at 10:10 EST gives us another situational edge, as the east coast titans will be playing this game well past midnight EST.

ConleyPicks · Sep 10, 2020

R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
YESTERDAY 11:22 PM

HOUSTON +9
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
The focus is on what the Chiefs did to the Texans in the playoffs last year, but going up 24-0 on the Chiefs in the first place has to be worth something, and beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead during the regular season should be worth even more. Underdogs of eight-plus are 7-0 ATS in Week 1 over the last five years and 20-8 ATS in Week 1 over the last 15 years. This Texans team still has plenty of talent after trading away DeAndre Hopkins, and Deshaun Watson is capable of keeping his team in any game or covering late if needed. Loved this pick at +10, still love it at +9.

ConleyPicks · Sep 10, 2020

Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
TUE 9/8

HOUSTON +9
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
The Chiefs finished last season on a nine-game win streak (8-0-1 ATS), one of which was a 51-31 defeat of the Texans (+10) in the playoffs after overcoming a 24-0 deficit.. At the time, the Chiefs were rolling and hungry and the stands were full. On Thursday night, they come in with no preseason games after winning the Super Bowl and only 22 percent of the stadium capacity allowed. The Texans beat the Chiefs, 31-24, at Arrowhead in October and they were getting only +4.5. DeShaun Watson leads the way to cover, maybe even a win.

11-3-1 IN LAST 15 HOU ATS PICKS | +777

14-10 IN LAST 24 KC ATS PICKS | +293

ConleyPicks · Sep 10, 2020

Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
TUE 9/8

KANSAS CITY -9
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
Kansas City has a great chance to repeat as Super Bowl champs with Patrick Mahomes at QB. The Chiefs return nearly their entire roster and added a great RB in the draft. With no preseason games, you have to be looking at players and coaching staffs that have experience working together, and injuries. The Chiefs came back last year to destroy the Texans and now Houston is without DeAndre Hopkins. It could be another long night for the Texans and their defense. Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Thursday night games. Kansas City is 7-0-1 in its last eight games as home favorite. The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 September games

sailfish · Sep 10, 2020

Goodfella

TRIPLE DIME PLAY

3* LA LAKERS -5

vivaatlanticcity · Sep 10, 2020

Any Primetime Sports Pick?

tia

NBA
3* La Lakers
NCAAF
3* UAB +14.5 (Freeplay)
NFL
3* Houston +10.5

ConleyPicks · Sep 10, 2020

Emory Hunt

NFL Season 2019-2020

Final Record

ATS

13-19 Sept
22-13 Oct
15-16 Nov
23-13 Dec

73-61 54% Regular Season

7-4 Playoffs

80-65 55%

Moneyline 1-5 Units -3.7

Totals 0-0

Net Units +8.0 at 5% juice

HOUSTON +9
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
9:44 AM
These teams split the two matchups last season, with the Chiefs winning the second one in thrilling fashion during the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Houston won the first matchup and had a 24-0 lead in the playoff game. The point is that both teams know each other well, and if you are the Texans, you know that you can move the ball on the Chiefs defense. Without a preseason game and with this being the first live action for both teams, expect a game that will be closer than the nine points Kansas City is giving.

19-10 IN LAST 29 KC ATS PICKS | +818

5-2 IN LAST 7 HOU ATS PICKS | +279

ConleyPicks · Sep 10, 2020

Ben Burns

all mlb plays

Nyy
La Angel's
Cleveland indians

Thursday Service Play Thread 09/10/2020

Let's go Brandon!

RX Cylon

Let's go Brandon!

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