Sunday Service Play Thread 09/13/2020

BuzzKill · Sep 6, 2020

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ryangenero · Sep 7, 2020

Football Jesus Free picks sun NFL : PACKERS +pts, RAMS +pts

Yankees5560 · Sep 8, 2020

If u can,,, I posted a lot of early plays for Hitman and Warren Sharp in early thread ,, might want to move them over

ConleyPicks · Sep 8, 2020

HITMAN | NFL SIDE SUN, 09/13/20 - 8:20 PM
478 LOS 3.0 (-110) Southpoint vs 477 DAL

double-dime bet
Analysis:
The public perception and love a–ffair with the Cowboys gives us clear value on the Rams as a 3 point home dog. I make the game Dallas -0.5.

The Rams are one of the teams least affected by the fact that this game will likely not have fans. Dallas will still have to travel, which gives the Rams around a 1.5 HFA.

Dallas will be playing their first game with a new HC, who has a limited time to implement his offense in a shortened offseason.

Matchup wise, the book is out on the Rams. They are a bet on team when Jared Goff's pocket is clean, and a bet against when he's under pressure. He is also a significantly better quarterback at home. Dallas was around league average in pressure rate last season, and projects to be around the same this season.

ConleyPicks · Sep 8, 2020

HITMAN | NFL SIDE SUN, 09/13/20 - 1:00 PM
469 GBP 3.5 (-110) Bookmaker vs 470 MIN

double-dime bet
Analysis:
I make this game Vikings -3.5... ASSUMING that we have a full capacity crowd. With the game likely having no or a limited crowd, the Vikings HFA takes a significant hit. I make this game Vikings -2.5, giving us value going through the key number of 3.

I am not a big trends guy, but one trend I think is applicable is divisional dogs in week 1. Teams ty–pically aren't hitting at full stride yet early in the season, and it keeps these games between familiar opponents super close. Divisional dogs since 2014 are 21-5-1 ATS, including 4-1 last season.

I think eventually the friction between Rodgers and the Packers front office hurts this Packers team negatively, but I suspect we see a super motivated Rodgers for his first game since the Packers essentially signaled to Rodgers that they are planning on life without him in 2-3 years. Plus, the Vikings will be breaking in a completely new cornerback group with very little experience.

Pick Made: May 8 2020 3:52PM PST

ConleyPicks · Sep 8, 2020

HITMAN | NFL TOTAL SUN, 09/13/20 - 4:05 PM
472 CIN / 471 LAC Under 45.5 Southpoint

double-dime bet
Analysis:
The Chargers are my– favorite under the radar "under" team this season. Last year, Chargers games average only 38.5 PPG despite many games where opposing offenses started in great field position due to turnovers committed by the Chargers offense.

Last season, the Chargers were better then their record, but committing the 4th most turnovers in the NFL led to the Chargers going 5-11 despite having a Pythagorean win total of 7.8. Now the Chargers go from one of the most turnover prone quarterbacks in the NFL in Phillip Rivers to one of the most conservative quarterbacks in the NFL in Tyrod Taylor. Ultimately I believe this leads to the Chargers being run heavier and relying on their defense more this season, which on paper projects as a top five defense this season.

The Bengals theoretically improved on both sides of the ball this season, but I expect the offense to take more time to gel due to the Bengals starting a rookie quarterback that has a shortened offseason to get prepared.

LINE NOTE 5/17: You can get 46.5 in NJ (DK), 46 at WHill, 45.5 at multiple Vegas shops and 44.5 is the most common number offshore. I tried to split the difference by listing this game at 45.5. Regardless, I like this under at 44 or better.

ConleyPicks · Sep 8, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 13 2020 8:20PM
477 DAL / 478 LOS OVER 50.5 William Hilldouble-dime bet

Analysis: FYI, O50.5 is available at Caesars, WHill, and MGM. Perfectly fine at 51 as I like this up to 52.

Two teams I am selectively looking to play overs on this season.

One thing I have preached this offseason is looking to bet on teams that have continuity going into the offseason. The Rams and Cowboys are a matchup of two teams who keep the same offensive play caller (McVay and Moore), but lost their defensive play callers. Both of the former coordinators (Marinelli, and especially Wade Phillips) are noteworthy losses for their teams.

The Rams are projected to have one of the highest pass rates in the NF, and Jared Goff has had a significantly better YPA at home over the past two seasons. He also has a 31 to 11 TD/INT ratio at home in those seasons, while having a 22 to 17 TD/INT ratio on the road. Dallas' secondary is looking like the weakness of their team this season.

The Cowboys offense looks like it has improved in the offseason, which is a crazy thought considering that the team was 1st in YPP last season. The Cowboys return all of their starters except stud center Travis Frederick, but they removed possession pass catchers Randall Cobb and Jason Witten from their offense, and now replace those targets with the more explosive Ceedee Lamb and Blake Jarwin. The Rams lost OLB Dante Fowler, OLB Clay Matthews, MLB Cory Littleton, CB Nickell- Robey Coleman, and S Eric Weddle in the offseason, and rank 28th in defensive continuity coming into this season.

ConleyPicks · Sep 8, 2020

Warren sharp
1.5 units over 50 Dallas
1 u it GB +3.5

ConleyPicks · Sep 8, 2020

R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
YESTERDAY 11:09 PM

A CBS Sports NFL editor, R.J. twice has cashed huge in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. In 2017 he tied for 18th out of 2,748 contestants with a 52-29-4 mark against the spread. In 2015 he tied for 39th out of 1,727 entries with a 51-32-2 record. R.J. consistently crushes the NFL for SportsLine members: All-time he's 265-218-22 on ATS picks, returning $2,335 to $100 players. R.J. has many years of experience analyzing NFL statistics and trends, beginning with Super Bowl XXV.

L.A. RAMS +3
DALLAS @ L.A. RAMS | 9/13 | 8:20 PM EDT
The Cowboys ran all over the Rams in their Week 15 meeting last year, but Dallas of course is under new stewardship this season. With no preseason, I think it's going to take teams with new coaches time to find their footing, and I love getting a home 'dog of a field goal going against one here. It's not like Sean McVay's team tanked last season, finishing with a 9-7 record. Their defense has the talent in the secondary to handle the Cowboys' weapons in the passing game, so as long as McVay can scheme something up on offense -- and the Rams have scored 30-plus in all three of his season openers -- they should get the win here.

28-12-1 IN LAST 41 LAR ATS PICKS | +1446

ConleyPicks · Sep 8, 2020

Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
TUE 5/26

GREEN BAY +3.5
GREEN BAY @ MINNESOTA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
Don't expect full stadiums for the start of the NFL season, which means the Vikings won't have their usual massive homefield edge. The Packers have spent months hearing how their 13-3 record last year was a fluke and that they botched their offseason moves. Both might be true, but it's good motivation against a division rival Green Bay swept last year. Since 2003, division dogs in Week 1 are 51-32 (61.4 percent) ATS, including 4-1 last year. Grab the points.

18-4-1 IN LAST 23 MIN ATS PICKS | +1355

15-5 IN LAST 20 GB ATS PICKS | +949

ConleyPicks · Sep 8, 2020

Teddy Covers

10* Big Ticket: Take Las Vegas (#459)

This is the wrong offseason for any new coaching staff. When it’s a situation like Carolina’s, with a new head coach, new offensive coordinator, new defensive coordinator and new quarterback, we can only expect the transition to be a lengthy process. Matt Rhule has engineered two impressive rebuilding projects at the college level, turning around the programs at Temple and Baylor. Rhule’s record in his first year at Temple was 2-10. His first year at Baylor, the Bears went 1-11.
Make no mistake about it: this is going to be a lengthy process for Carolina, not an immediate turnaround. This Panthers team cannot be expected to win Week 1 against a veteran Raiders squad with much more continuity – returning their head coach, both coordinators and their QB – as well as a big chip on their collective shoulders off last year’s debacle. Look for Vegas to open the season with a SU road win – the negative impact of West Coast teams travelling east for early start games is largely mitigated for Week 1 games. Big Ticket: Take the Raiders.

ConleyPicks · Sep 8, 2020

R.J. White

A CBS Sports NFL editor, R.J. twice has cashed huge in the world's most prestigious handicapping tournament, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperContest. In 2017 he tied for 18th out of 2,748 contestants with a 52-29-4 mark against the spread. In 2015 he tied for 39th out of 1,727 entries with a 51-32-2 record. R.J. consistently crushes the NFL for SportsLine members: All-time he's 265-218-22 on ATS picks, returning $2,335 to $100 players. R.J. has many years of experience analyzing NFL statistics and trends, beginning with Super Bowl XXV.

JACKSONVILLE +8
INDIANAPOLIS @ JACKSONVILLE | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:48 PM
I love finding a reason to take ugly 'dogs early in the season, when we know little about how the season is going to unfold. Yes, Jacksonville is going to be bad, but I don't see signs they'll be historically bad, not with a capable OC in the fold in Jay Gruden. But this line assumes not only that the Jaguars will be terrible, but that the Colts will also be great. Are we sure that's the case? Philip Rivers struggled last year with the Chargers, and he doesn't have a vast stable of pass-catchers at his disposal here. I also have some questions about the Indy secondary and think Gardner Minshew can storm though the back door late if needed.

23-13-1 IN LAST 37 IND ATS PICKS | +839

CHICAGO +3
CHICAGO @ DETROIT | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:45 PM
This line has steamed toward the Lions as the season draws near, but I think we're getting great value on the Bears at this number. All offseason the Bears were considered 1.5 wins better (minus the juice, which skews in Detroit's favor). Now all of a sudden Chicago is at best even with their division rival, or even behind them if you assume home-field advantage won't be worth a full three points? The Bears went with the familiar option at QB to start the season, which at least gives the offense a better chance to find early success. And while the Lions are a trendy sleeper based on their talent on offense, this Chicago defense is a tough matchup for anyone.

28-14-1 IN LAST 43 CHI ATS PICKS | +1292

10-3-1 IN LAST 14 DET ATS PICKS | +669

ATLANTA +2
SEATTLE @ ATLANTA | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:39 PM
Maybe I'm the sucker, but I don't think this Falcons team is as bad as people are making it out to be. The defense found its footing in the second half of last season, when the team was able to go on the road and beat both the 49ers and Saints. The offense has a lot of stability coming out of this unique offseason. And while the Seahawks are likely the better team, they've struggled in recent Week 1 matchups. Remember them barely holding off a Bengals team last year that finished with the No. 1 pick? They lost the two years before that and edged out a bad Dolphins team as double-digit favorites in 2016 as well.

29-15 IN LAST 44 ATL ATS PICKS | +1235

19-10-2 IN LAST 31 SEA ATS PICKS | +783

UNDER 48
PITTSBURGH @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/14 | 7:10 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:31 PM
Can we really expect much from the Giants offense in this game? It's their first game under the new coaching staff with no preseason under their belt to get comfortable, and now they have to face maybe the top defense in the league to open the season. A healthy Big Ben makes the Steelers offense a tough matchup for a Giants defense that should struggle this year, but is there really any reason for them to run up the score in the second half if they're up big? I think in order for this to go Over, you need a Giants offense that can be competitive in this game, and the odds are stacked against them.

13-6-3 IN LAST 22 PIT O/U PICKS | +633

UNDER 43
PHILADELPHIA @ WASHINGTON | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:24 PM
The Eagles enter the season all kinds of banged up on the offensive side of the ball, and we shouldn't expect a ton of scoring from them out the gate. But they did a great job upgrading the secondary, which should have no trouble handling Washington's limited group of pass-catchers. If this is a defensive battle, Washington can certainly cover the six-point spread, but I feel much safer throwing my lot with the Under, which may be a constant play in Washington games until they can prove otherwise.

4-2 IN LAST 6 WAS O/U PICKS | +180

UNDER 43
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:19 PM
The Dolphins did a lot to improve on the defensive side, but their rebuilt O-line is going to take time to come together, and the skill position guys are basically the same group that finished 25th in scoring last year. The Patriots suffered some losses on the defensive side but still have Bill Belichick drawing up the gameplan, and the New England offense should take time to find a rhythm under new quarterback Cam Newton. He may find it tough to have success throwing against an impressive secondary, especially with no standout pass-catchers aside from Julian Edelman.

10-3 IN LAST 13 NE O/U PICKS | +669

ConleyPicks · Sep 8, 2020

Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
YESTERDAY 7:30 PM

NEW ENGLAND -6.5
MIAMI @ NEW ENGLAND | 9/13 | 1:00 PM EDT
Cam Newton says he and the Patriots are a match made in heaven, and I believe him. The Patriots voted him team captain and coach Bill Belichick has been praising him for the past three weeks. This contest isn't about exacting revenge after losing a costly home game to the Dolphins in Week 17 last year, but rather about the Patriots' top-ranked defense. Then there’s the idea of Newton making a bigger splash in Week 1 than Tom Brady does for Tampa Bay. That’s the headline that would make me buy Monday's papers. Take New England to cover.

6-3 IN LAST 9 MIA ATS PICKS | +271

RH2294 · Sep 9, 2020

Does anyone have Fezzik or Brad Powers?

ConleyPicks · Sep 9, 2020

RH2294 said:
Does anyone have Fezzik or Brad Powers?

Check back closer to the date

Yankees5560 · Sep 10, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 13 2020 4:05PM
472 CIN 3.5(-110) Southpoint vs 471 LAC double-dime bet

Analysis: [FONT=&quot]The Chargers are not the type of team I want laying over a field goal on the road. A lot of sharp guys are high on them once again this season because of their horrendous turnover and close game luck last season, but it's the same story every single year with this team, so one has to wonder if this is just bad luck, or is it something else?[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]The Chargers also have horrendous injury luck seemingly every single season, and the same is true for this season. WR Mike Williams is likely out for this game, and the Chargers have little wide receiver depth behind him. C Mike Pouncey is also a GTD, meaning the Chargers would field one of the worst LT-LG-C combinations in the league, against an underrated Bengals pass rush that has three underrated edge rushers in Carlos Dunlap, Carl Lawson, and Sam Hubbard, as well as interior disruptors Geno Atkins and DJ Reader. The Chargers are also without superstar safety Derwin James for the rest of the season.[/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]I don't love playing on a rookie QB in their first start with no preseason, but Joe Burrow has reportedly shined in Bengals practices, and he has very underrated weapons to go along with him in Joe Mixon and a deep wide receiver group. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]No team had a slower run offense then the Chargers last year, and Chargers games averaged the fewest combined plays in the NFL. That is not a recipe towards success when you want to cover over a field goal on the road. Take the points![/FONT]

Yankees5560 · Sep 10, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Thursday, Sep 10 2020 8:20PM
452 KAN -2.5(-130) BetOnline vs 451 HOU double-dime bet

Analysis: [FONT=&quot]With all of our teaser plays this season, it is important to find books that charge reasonable prices for these teasers. There are plenty of locals who still charge -120 for a six point teaser (and even some who charge only -110!). In this instance of a 6.5 point teaser, you should be able to find -130 if you have a few outs, and I personally have a few shops who only charge -120. However, I will grade it at -130.
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[FONT=&quot]2* 6.5 POINT TEASER KC -2.5/DEN +9 -130
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[FONT=&quot]- Backing the defending super bowl champion in week 1 for their home opener has been a super profitable angle, and I love that we get to do that with a Chiefs team who has won and covered nine consecutive games going back to last season. The Chiefs are historically very hot starters under HC Andy Reid (they have won and covered 5 straight season openers), while they are set to return 20 of 22 starters from their super bowl squad. In a year where we should be valuing continuity early in the season, no team is more qualified in that department then the Chiefs.
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[FONT=&quot]Denver is a remarkable 33-4 SU since 1989 at home in weeks 1-2. The logic in this is simple: Teams are not in game shape early in the season, and not being used to the altitude in Denver fatigues them, especially later in the game. This year, that will be more true then ever, as the Titans obviously had no preseason to get their conditioning right for week one. By now, the market knows about this angle, but I power rate the game Titans -1, so I do not believe the market is fully accounting for it. The overreaction to the Von Miller injury is giving us value on Denver and giving us value on the optimal teaser strategy (teasing a small underdog up in a game with a low total). The fact that this game starts at 10:10 EST gives us another situational edge, as the east coast titans will be playing this game well past midnight EST.[/FONT]

Yankees5560 · Sep 10, 2020

HITMAN | NFLSide - Sunday, Sep 13 2020 8:20PM
478 LOS 3.0(-110) Southpoint vs 477 DAL double-dime bet

Analysis:

PROPS POSTED IN THIS PICK: CHECK BACK ON GAMEDAY’s. Also, for TNF and MNF, check the forums and my twitter handle for props!

Will Fuller O60.5 Rec Yds -110 (Fanduel)
David Johnson O44.5 Rush Yds -110 (MGM)

JayGrace · Sep 11, 2020

Jeff Ma-

Jags, Patriots, browns, Jets, Rams

Yankees5560 · Sep 11, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 13 2020 1:00PM
464 WAS 6.0(-110) Southpoint vs 463 PHI double-dime bet

Analysis: [FONT=&quot]This one is all about division underdogs (21-5-1 ATS since 2014), and cluster injuries. Washington has one of the best defensive lines in the NFL, while Philly is potentially without star RT Lane Johnson for this game, and will be without LT Andre Dillard and RG Brandon Brooks. The Eagles are also dealing with cluster injuries at wideout in Jalen Reagor, Alshon Jeffery, and RB Miles Sanders is rumored to be on a pitch count. Plus, QB Carson Wentz was on the injury report last week as well. Is this really the game where the Eagles are going to expose his health, or will they be attempting quick short passes just to get him out of this game still healthy? [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Philly can't be laying this many points on the road considering their injuries and the historical road underdog trends (which I obviously think are applicable trends and not a coincidence) [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]Take the points![/FONT]

Sunday Service Play Thread 09/13/2020

Let's go Brandon!

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