Dallas -½ +260 over Vegas
8:00 PM EST. Regulation only. Allow us to discuss variance/luck in the NHL for a moment. Philadelphia had a chance to go to the Eastern Finals despite being dominated by both Montreal and the Islanders. Of the 24 teams that started in the bubble, you would be hard pressed to find one that played worse than Philadelphia, yet the Flyers almost made the Final Four. Vancouver was one period short of going to the Western Finals despite being dominated by both Vegas and St. Louis. Chicago beat Edmonton in the first round and the Islanders have advanced further than the Bruins. That's what's so good about the NHL. It's not like the predictable NBA, where the better team advances almost 100% of the time. You see, basketball is the least luck-driven sport because there are so many possessions in a game and by the end of a seven-game series, the better team advances 100% of the time or damn close to it. In the NHL, it's far less because it's such a luck-driven outcome. If they played the NHL playoffs from the start again (24 teams) you would have an entirely different set of results. If the NBA started over from 16 teams, you would have the exact same results with perhaps the exception of one very close series (Utah/Denver).
[FONT=arial !important]That brings us to Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between Vegas and Dallas. We don’t trust the Stars goaltending for a second and wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see Anton Khudobin yanked more than once. Dallas’ backup goaltender is Jake Oettinger, who has never played a single minute in an NHL game. If Vegas buries a bunch past Khudobin in Game 1, or in any game for that matter, it would surprise us not but we’re just going to have to plug our nose and not worry about it. Khudobin is like any other average goalie in that he can get hot too.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Vegas has played Chicago and Vancouver to get here. Those are two teams with very weak defenses so in reality, Vegas has had it pretty easy. Had the NHL not been stopped, Chicago would have missed the playoffs while Vancouver was fighting for their playoff lives and there was a good chance they would not have qualified for the playoffs either. Vegas is indeed a great team that is loaded with talent, grit, determination and speed but one could get into a lot of bad habits when playing 13 games in a row against soft defenses. The same fate does not await them here, as Dallas is loaded on the blueline.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]So, while the Knights took out Vancouver and Chicago, we don’t have to tell you who the Stars took out. When Dallas was set to take on the Avalanche, Colorado was a freight train that looked like they could not be stopped. Indeed, the Avs suffered some serious and unfortunate injuries to key personnel but Dallas still won Games 1 & 2 when Gabriel Landeskog and Joonis Donskoi were in the lineup. Are the Stars taking a step up in class when they face off against Vegas? Maybe, but they have answered the bell all year and when they played Colorado, the Avs were without question the greatest show on ice. Did they get lucky to beat Colorado? Maybe, but the Stars are scoring goals in bunches and with variance being such a big part of the outcome of each individual game, wouldn’t taking back this price to win in regulation be a tremendous value play that has a very good chance to cash? Of course it would (Risking 2 units to win 5.2 units). [/FONT]
8:00 PM EST. Regulation only. Allow us to discuss variance/luck in the NHL for a moment. Philadelphia had a chance to go to the Eastern Finals despite being dominated by both Montreal and the Islanders. Of the 24 teams that started in the bubble, you would be hard pressed to find one that played worse than Philadelphia, yet the Flyers almost made the Final Four. Vancouver was one period short of going to the Western Finals despite being dominated by both Vegas and St. Louis. Chicago beat Edmonton in the first round and the Islanders have advanced further than the Bruins. That's what's so good about the NHL. It's not like the predictable NBA, where the better team advances almost 100% of the time. You see, basketball is the least luck-driven sport because there are so many possessions in a game and by the end of a seven-game series, the better team advances 100% of the time or damn close to it. In the NHL, it's far less because it's such a luck-driven outcome. If they played the NHL playoffs from the start again (24 teams) you would have an entirely different set of results. If the NBA started over from 16 teams, you would have the exact same results with perhaps the exception of one very close series (Utah/Denver).
[FONT=arial !important]That brings us to Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals between Vegas and Dallas. We don’t trust the Stars goaltending for a second and wouldn’t be a bit surprised to see Anton Khudobin yanked more than once. Dallas’ backup goaltender is Jake Oettinger, who has never played a single minute in an NHL game. If Vegas buries a bunch past Khudobin in Game 1, or in any game for that matter, it would surprise us not but we’re just going to have to plug our nose and not worry about it. Khudobin is like any other average goalie in that he can get hot too.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]Vegas has played Chicago and Vancouver to get here. Those are two teams with very weak defenses so in reality, Vegas has had it pretty easy. Had the NHL not been stopped, Chicago would have missed the playoffs while Vancouver was fighting for their playoff lives and there was a good chance they would not have qualified for the playoffs either. Vegas is indeed a great team that is loaded with talent, grit, determination and speed but one could get into a lot of bad habits when playing 13 games in a row against soft defenses. The same fate does not await them here, as Dallas is loaded on the blueline.
[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]So, while the Knights took out Vancouver and Chicago, we don’t have to tell you who the Stars took out. When Dallas was set to take on the Avalanche, Colorado was a freight train that looked like they could not be stopped. Indeed, the Avs suffered some serious and unfortunate injuries to key personnel but Dallas still won Games 1 & 2 when Gabriel Landeskog and Joonis Donskoi were in the lineup. Are the Stars taking a step up in class when they face off against Vegas? Maybe, but they have answered the bell all year and when they played Colorado, the Avs were without question the greatest show on ice. Did they get lucky to beat Colorado? Maybe, but the Stars are scoring goals in bunches and with variance being such a big part of the outcome of each individual game, wouldn’t taking back this price to win in regulation be a tremendous value play that has a very good chance to cash? Of course it would (Risking 2 units to win 5.2 units). [/FONT]
