Bolts/Isles w/analysis

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Tampa -1½ games +105

Tampa Bay -½ +111 over N.Y. Islanders Game 1

8:20 PM EST. Barry Trotz is a Stanley Cup winning coach that got everything out of every player en route to winning the Cup back in 2018 with the (at the time) overachieving Capitals. The Caps have fallen on hard times since he left. Trotz would then take his act to Long Island, where the Islanders surprised everyone last year by making the playoffs after every publication had them pegged as a bottom five team. In year 2 with the Islanders, Trotz has taken them to the Eastern Conference Final and accolades are being thrown his way in boatloads.

No matter what you read or what sports news feed you follow, the narrative is the same. It talks about Trotz’s system and how it is difficult to play against. It talks about Trotz’s attention to details, his preparation, his systematic approach and his undeniable success. We are not here to debate any of that but we will reiterate that the media has a great amount of influence on the market and the fact that Tampa Bay is a smaller price over the Islanders than Vegas is over Dallas is laughable. Truly laughable. Results also have a great influence in the market and in that regard, the Islanders breezed through the “play-in” first round over Florida and then probably should have beaten the Flyers in four straight and not seven games. Philadelphia got outplayed the entire series and won all three of its games in OT.

It’s notable that the market has been greatly exposed to the Isles too. You see, the Islanders have been playing prime time games for a couple of weeks now while the Bolts played a bunch of afternoon games versus the Jackets and then beat a Boston team that had its #1 goaltender opt out of the bubble. When one turns to the radio, TV or internet to get their NHL info, Barry Trotz and the Islanders have been at the forefront. We cannot overstate the media’s influence on the market. In that regard, said media is playing up the Islanders great run and we are now going to attempt to take advantage of all that crap that they’re spewing out.

The Islanders path to the Eastern Finals was handed to them on a silver platter. They played a Florida team with no goaltending and didn’t outplay them. They played an uninspired Caps’ squad that outchanced the Islanders 37-23 in the final two games and also outchanced them 24-11 in Game 2. The Islanders would badly outplay Philadelphia but of the 24 teams that started out in the bubble, you would seriously be hard-pressed to find one that played worse than the Flyers did. The Montreal Canadiens outplayed Philadelphia in every period except one of their six game series but it goes even deeper than that.

What is the goal in hockey? The goal is to possess the puck and keep it away from your opponent while trying to create as many scoring chances as possible in the offensive end. During the regular season, the Islanders ranked 29th out of 31 teams in puck-possession time in the offensive end during five-on-five play. Only the Devils and Red Wings were worse. Incidentally, the Bolts ranked 5th, which is 29 positions higher than the Isles. In Average Scoring Chances per game, the Isles ranked 22nd among the 31 teams while Tampa ranked 3rd.During the playoffs and with an easy schedule, the Islanders rank 16th out of 24 teams in puck-possession time in the offensive end during five-on-five play while the Lightning rank 3rd behind Vegas and Colorado. Incidentally, Tampa played Columbus and Boston and not Florida, Washington and Philadelphia. The Bolts played two puck-heavy teams and washed the floor with the Bruins. So, we ask you….what exactly does Barry Trotz’s great system consist of? Would it be to be playing in your own end for the majority of the game and pray your goalie bails you out? Would it be to get outshot, outchanced and outplayed every game and hope to capitalize on the few opportunities that it does get? We must repeat that the Islanders puck possession numbers are equivalent to Detroit and New Jersey and even the Ottawa Senators had the puck in the offensive end more than the Islanders did this past season. Give the Isles credit for their grit and determination but they just ran into two teams (Caps and Flyers) that were not close to being hungry enough and being hungry is half the battle. The same fate does not await the Islanders here. Tampa is uber-hungry. They can see the road to the Cup Finals and the road to a Stanley Cup. They are not going to allow this vastly inferior team to get in their way and we’re going to bet it accordingly. This is an all out attack on this very short priced favorite (Risking 2 units on each)
 

my clock is stuck on 420 time to hit this bong
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right on point sherwood . tampa looks completely energized . there forecheck was ridiculous. looked like varsity schooling JV. I'm hoping my Islanders come back strong game 2 but tough spot
 

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