MistaFlava's NBA Playoffs ***POWER SELECTIONS*** (Writeups & Analysis)

2020 MistaFlava NBA Playoffs: 0-0 ATS (+0.00 Units)

Have not posted much NBA at all this season, nothing since the start of the pandemic and the return to action in the bubble but I have a good feel for the NBA and I am going to be contributing here on a regular basis through the NBA Finals. Let's hope on for the ride and make some money.

GOOD LUCK TO EVERYONE!

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Monday, September 7


Western Conference Semi-Finals - Game 3



Los Angeles Clippers -8.5 (10 Units)

Back and forth we go with the Clippers and Nuggets exchanging wins in the first two games of this series. We have to give the Nuggets a break in Game 1 because they had just played a crazy series with the Utah Jazz but they showed up in Game 2 and showed the Clippers how they can be a problem in this series. I think it was a nice wakeup call for the Clippers as much as Game 1 was a wakeup call for Denver. The way Jamal Murray is playing right now its hard to not believe anything is possible with this team and the Nuggets are no doubt about it a dangerous opponent having been through it all this post-season but I don't see them being a match for the Clippers.

In Game 2 of this series the Clippers went down 44-25 in the 1st Quarter and that was pretty much the difference in the game as the Clippers never recovered but the Nuggets made a great set of adjustments going into that game and now the Clippers have to adjust. Some of the big players on the Clippers promised Game 3 would not only have adjustments but that they would look a lot better and come a lot more prepared. That's the kind of attitude a Championship pedigree of a Kawhi Leonard brings to the team.

An interesting stat to keep an eye is that the Clippers have covered the spread in 21 of their last 27 games coming off an ATS spread loss. On the flip side Denver is 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games coming off a straight up win. Both teams have lacked consistency in the playoffs so far so I expect this one to go all over the place. Give me the Clippers to win this one not huge but they'll cover with some late free throws.

Trend of the Game: Los Angeles Clippers are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 games coming off a spread loss.


LA Clippers 116, Denver 102



more to come...

adding...


Tuesday, September 15


Eastern Conference Finals - Game 1



Boston Celtics -1.5 (10 Units)

I am all in on the Celtics to win Game 1 based off the fact that they've had their time off and no quick turnaround like some of the other teams in other series that won a big Game 7 and had to play Game 1 only two days later. Those teams struggled but the Celtics have been off since Friday and have had plenty of time to rest, recuperate and be ready for a Miami Heat team that has been sitting for over a week now in the bubble. It's one thing to sit at home and one thing to sit in the bubble for that long. Miami was a +5 point underdog in August when these two teams met in the Bubble and won 112-106. Having said that, if you look outside the bubble in more competitive games back on home soil, the Celtics dominated both their meetings in the Regular Season prior to the Covid shutdown.

Too many people are stuck on the Heat and their success up to this point in the playoffs. Sure they knocked off the big bad #1 seeded Milwaukee Bucks but they haven't exactly been through a war having eased thru the first two rounds of the playoffs. That's an issue for me in a game where both teams will struggle to find intensity for different reasons. Jimmy Butler is playing out of his mind and Erik Spoelstra is a tremendous coach with the pedigree of a Champion but are you not impressed with Brad Stevens and the Celtics? Sure the Raptors didn't play their best basketball but the Celtics were good when they had to be and they were a big part of that reason the Raps never got going.

One more look at the three meetings in the 2019-2020 Regular Season. Boston is 2-0 SU and ATS outside the Bubble and the Miami Heat are 1-0 SU and ATS inside the bubble. This is playoff basketball and I believe it will resemble the "outside" world a lot more. Not gonna lie, betting on the Heat is enticing because of how good they have been but this is a good fade spot. It's been forever since they've played. Boston is a very good team on several days rest and are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games playing on 3+ days of rest. They have covered the spread in 8 of their 11 playoff games in the bubble as well. I'm going Celtics to win Game 1.

Trend of the Game: Boston is 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games under Brad Stevens playing on 3+ days rest.


Boston 107, Miami 98





more to come...

Best of luck

adding...


Western Conference 2nd Round - Game 7



Denver Nuggets +7.5 (10 Units)

Alright I know this is going to be a popular play in the sports world tonight but I think the failure to adjust the line from the last two games is a big time mistake by the smart guys in Vegas. Either we are all being setup for a blowout loss or we are on the right end of what has been a bad line for over a week. The line was +8 and +8.5 when the Nuggets were down 3-1 in the series and they won both those games straight up to setup a Game 7 and possibly shock the basketball world. I think it happens. The Nuggets are firing on all cylinders right now and are on their second straight series of coming back from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7. If that's not destiny I'm not sure what is.

How ironic would it be that only 3-4 days removed from the defending Champion Toronto Raptors being knocked out of the 2020 NBA Playoff Bubble, their Finals MVP from one year ago is on the brink of going out in shocking fashion. The Clippers have been complacent the last two games and almost got too comfortable. The Jokic and Murray combo is absolutely killing the Clippers who seem to be struggling in the second half of games. The Nuggets have scored 107 points or more in four of the last five games in this series winning three of those four. That seems to be the formula to beat this Clippers team and I believe the Nuggets have solved it.

Betting wise you will find two crazy trends for tonight and both points to a Clippers win and cover but I'm not biting. The Clippers are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a loss of 10+ points and the Nuggets are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four games coming off a win of 10+ points but this is the playoffs man and none of that matters. The Nuggets have all the momentum in the world coming into this game going 4-1 ATS since their Game 1 loss in this series. I'm going for them to finish off the Clippers tonight or at least keep it very close.

Trend of the Game: Denver is 4-1 ATS in this series since their Game 1 loss.


LA Clippers 113, Denver 112





more to come...

Make that 5-1.