Dallas/Vegas Game 2 w/analysis

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Dallas -½ +225 over Vegas
8:10 PM EST. Regulation only. The narrative being discussed after Dallas took the opening game of this series is that the Golden Knights were tired. They had just played back-to-back games, four games in six nights and six games in nine nights, not to mention a seven-game series with the Canucks. No matter where you turn, that’s the excuse we’re hearing (not from the players but from the media).
While all that is all true, we’re not buying it. For one, the Golden Knights dominated the Canucks with their fruitless cycle game against a team being held together by wunderkind Elias Pettersson, duct tape, and a heroic Thatcher Demko. Dominating is not tiring. Being dominated is. Secondly, there was no travel. That’s refreshing, not tiring. Thirdly, these guys are in tremendous physical shape and had a day off between finishing off the Canucks and facing off against Dallas so again, we’re not buying the “they were tired” card for a second. Perhaps there was a sense of relief after they put away the Canucks, thus creating somewhat of a letdown spot. Perhaps the Golden Knights took the Stars lightly. Or perhaps, just perhaps, the Stars really are as good as they’re playing. We’re not hearing that too often. Instead we’re reading all the excuses why Vegas lost and not why Dallas won.

We pointed out prior to the last game that Vegas just played two teams that leak high quality scoring chances against. Chicago and Vancouver were among the worst teams in the NHL in allowing high danger chances against and the Knights just came off of 13 games against that pair. Suddenly, after developing some bad habits while playing those two, Dallas comes along with an outstanding defense that the Knights weren’t ready for. The national telecast opened the pregame show with a piece on offensive defenders changing the game. Shea Theodore, and to a lesser extent Miro Heiskanen, were given their due. It’s one game, but Heiskanen lived up to the hype, and top-to-bottom the Stars’ defense looked ready in both zones. Dallas dominated the first two periods and quite frankly, Vegas was very fortunate they weren’t down three or four goals. In any event, Dallas won by the slimmest of margins, 1-0 and now the market trusts that Vegas will be more rested and prepared and will come out much sharper.

We don’t doubt the Knights for a second. They’re an outstanding team that scares the daylights out of us. They deserve the accolades and nothing about them is flukey. However, isn’t it about time to stop making excuses about why Colorado and Vegas lost to Dallas. The Stars are creating a ton of scoring chances. Their defense is the best among the four remaining teams. They roll out talent, strength and a physical presence that is proving very difficult to play against. It would be one thing if Dallas was winning while getting dominated but that’s not the case. They’re winning because they’re extremely tough to beat and if they lacked confidence or consistency before the playoffs began, they don’t lack that anymore. Finally, and most importantly, we must turn our attention once again to value. Vegas -160 is absurd so taking back +140 or thereabouts is a solid wager but we’re going for the regulation win again because that, too, offers up extreme value.
 

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Hi,
Thank you for sharing the details Sherwood. I love watching Vegas but Dallas is having a good team combination.
Good analysis... Thanks.
 

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