Sunday Service Play Thread 09/20/2020

BuzzKill · Sep 13, 2020

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phmeter · Sep 13, 2020

I wanted to start a new thread here: please list the top 'cappers that you follow for football. Thanks, All!

ryangenero · Sep 13, 2020

Football Jesus website posted NFL Seahawks -pts for wk 2 back on may 15

SkipReap · Sep 15, 2020

What number did football Jesus post for hawks?

PGF
Falcons o52

sheep
rams o46

seal
ATL +7 -130

8ball
bills -5.5 2%

Frankie diamonds
sf -6
chiefs -6.5

Yankees5560 · Sep 16, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 20 2020 1:00PM
270 NYJ 7.0(-110) BetOnline vs 269 SFX double-dime bet

Analysis: This is what you call a ugly dog play. Nobody wants to bet on the Jets after that pathetic performance against the Bills. However, this line is way too high and there's clear value on the Jets in week two.

There's multiple situational factors in favor of the Jets, including the fact that the 49ers are a west coast team playing an early start time on the east coast, and the fact that over the last six seasons, teams that lose by double digits in week 1 are 62.5% ATS in their week two game.

The 49ers pass game is in shambles. George Kittle is not 100%, their number one wide receiver Deebo Samuel is out, and their number two wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk is potentially out as well. San Francisco's offensive success is based off their running game, but the one thing this Jets team can do is stop the run, as they had the number 2 run defense in DVOA last season and held the Bills running backs to 2.3 YPC in week one.

Defensively, San Francisco is still above average, but they are not the unit they once were. Important assistant coach Joe Woods left in the offseason, they lost DT Deforest Buckner, and an already shaky secondary is now without stud CB Richard Sherman for this game.

Power rating wise, I make this game Jets +5.5. This is mostly a San Francisco fade play, as they are a team that just can't be laying this amount of points on the road with the current injury situation as well as lack of explosiveness on offense!

Spicycheeseballs · Sep 16, 2020

Dr. Chuck 5% NFL Sunday: Arizona Cardinals -6.5

Yankees5560 · Sep 16, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 20 2020 1:00PM
275 DET / 276 GBP OVER 48.5 Westgate double-dime bet

Analysis: I absolutely hate being late to the number here, as this line was 47.5 but got bet up at that number by some sharp groups.

However, I expect this total to climb even higher.

Detroit is likely without their top three cornerbacks in this game, and in a co-vid year, that means even more trouble then before. The Lions will likely have practice squad players in their secondary, and making matters worse is the fact that they have one of the worst pass rushes in the NFL. The Vikings lack pass rush and cornerbacks, and Aaron Rodgers torched them on Sunday. The Lions defense held Mitchel Trubisky in check for three quarters last week, until the cornerback injuries, and then proceeded to give up three touchdowns in the fourth quarter. Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay should absolutely dominate in this matchup.

When Matt Stafford went down halfway through 2019, Lions were 8th in NFL in PPG and 4th in yards per game. Stafford was on pace for 38TD/10INT, and a career high in passer rating, YPA, and TD rate. Matt Stafford is still more then capable of putting up his share of points in this matchup, and few quarterbacks have been better in their career at putting up points when coming from behind

Yankees5560 · Sep 16, 2020

Add: 275 Detroit Lions Over 47.5 (1 unit) - write-up to follow later

Yankees5560 · Sep 16, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 20 2020 1:00PM
277 NYG 6.5(-115) Bookmaker vs 278 CHI double-dime bet

Analysis:

Yankees5560 · Sep 16, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 20 2020 1:00PM
273 MIN 3.0(-110) Westgate vs 274 IND double-dime bet

Analysis: Yes, the Vikings looked bad against Green Bay. But we predicted that, and a lot of that had to do with the matchup issues that the Packers gave them in 2019 once again showing in 2020. The Vikings offensively struggle against teams with a dominant defensive line, and defensively struggle against top end quarterbacks (especially with their corner situation). The Colts will not be able to take advantage of this nearly as much as Green Bay did.

Since Mike Zimmer became the Vikings HC, no team in the NFL is better off a loss. The Vikings are 28-9 ATS off a loss with an ATS margin of nearly 5 PPG. For all the talk about how bad the Vikings defense looked on Sunday (and it did look bad), the Colts defense allowed a 19 of 20 passing, three touchdown performance from a bottom tier starting quarterback in Gardner Minshew.

Most importantly, we have line value. Power rating wise, I have the Vikings 0.5 better then Indy. With HFA being worth 2 points at most, Indy can’t be laying 3.

galloc · Sep 16, 2020

Yankees5560 said:
Add: 275 Detroit Lions Over 47.5 (1 unit) - write-up to follow later

Hey Yankees, Is this Warren Sharp?

TigerSon · Sep 16, 2020

Greg Shaker | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 20 2020 1:00PM
275 DET / 276 GBP OVER 49.0 Bookmaker double-dime bet

Analysis: 2* OVER at 51 or better. Both teams will score here especially the Packers since the Lions have a banged up secondary..

Yankees5560 · Sep 16, 2020

galloc said:
Hey Yankees, Is this Warren Sharp?

yes WARREN SHARP... apologize

Heehaw101 · Sep 16, 2020

Does anyone have Fezzik?

RapidRacing · Sep 17, 2020

Larry Ness 10* Jags/Tenn. Titans OVER the total 43.

Yankees5560 · Sep 18, 2020

Sharp

262 Philadelphia Eagles ML -110 (1 unit)

Yankees5560 · Sep 18, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 20 2020 1:00PM
269 SFX / 270 NYJ UNDER 41.5 Westgatesingle-dime bet

Analysis: I am keeping this play a little smaller due to the fact that we missed out on a better number earlier in the week. I do expect this number to close lower.

This matchup is likely to be the worst matchup of wide receivers this season. San Francisco's defensive line against the Jets offensive line is quite possibly the biggest mismatch in the trenches this week. The 49ers offense, lacking pass catching firepower, is likely to depend on the running game, which is the one thing the Jets defense can stop (number two in run defense DVOA last season, and another good start to the season this year)

Last week, we saw the Jets Bills game close 39. I believe this total should be similar, as both teams defensive strengths (up front) should be able to stop the opposing teams run games, and both defenses weakness (secondary) are unlikely to be exposed by these teams dealing with injured skill position players.

THEMINK · Sep 18, 2020

phmeter said:
I wanted to start a new thread here: please list the top 'cappers that you follow for football. Thanks, All!

College below
Tully's Take in college from VSIN new letter last year (29-17, 63%, Bowls 1-0)
ASA. 7* or higher (last year 7* or higher 6-1, small sample don't get them all the time)
Bondi 5* or higher (last year 9-4, 69%)
Doc 8* (last year 2 years, 8* 6-1)
My record with all this stuff a poor 33-34, Bowls 5-4, last year and the previous years were loosing seasons for me, previous 5 straight winning seasons, not much but enough keep me interested including NFl.
Nfl guys:
Doc 8* last year 2-0 not known for NFL but last couple years been good
Northcoast but I don't get them usually until later but I confirm the plays and did good last year
HIT MAN but I kept getting conflicting plays
Red sheet new letter last yr 11-3, last week 2-0
Please note I don't get these guys all the time and sometimes can not confirm if correct

ryangenero · Sep 18, 2020

FOOTBALL JESUS podcast Monday night RAIDERS +pts

ryangenero · Sep 18, 2020

SkipReap said:
What number did football Jesus post for hawks?

PGF
Falcons o52

sheep
rams o46

seal
ATL +7 -130

8ball
bills -5.5 2%

Frankie diamonds
sf -6
chiefs -6.5

well football jesus posted Seattle -3 ( and texted me ) on website back in MAY.... when lines first came out ( he bets early alot) but on PODCAST said 4 was ok they should win by 6 or more

Sunday Service Play Thread 09/20/2020

Let's go Brandon!

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