Sunday Service Play Thread 09/27/2020

BuzzKill · Sep 20, 2020

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SkipReap · Sep 22, 2020

Anyone who has Warren Sharp would you DM me at @boilers21?

i have access to multiple groups and would love to exchange on a more direct platform

SkipReap · Sep 22, 2020

NFAC

[h=1]SUNDAY 9-27-20 =[/h][h=2]464) Buffalo ML (-125)...($750) via Pinnacle (Nfl)[/h][h=2]479) Carolina +7 (-120) - Buy 1/2 PT...($750) via Pinnacle[/h]

Yankees5560 · Sep 22, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Sep 27 2020 1:00PM
473 CIN / 474 PHI OVER 46.0 Pinnacledouble-dime bet

Analysis: Bengals are an OVER team this season. Joe Burrow impressed all of us with his 61 pass attempt performance against the Browns, who's defense is a pass funnel similarly to the Eagles defense. Both the Browns and Eagles defense are similar in the fact that they are stout up front and stout against the run, but struggle in the back seven and pass defense. The Eagles pass defense is ranked 27th in pass defense DVOA despite one of those games getting to be against the struggling Dwyane Haskins. Against Jared Goff, the Eagles allowed 9.1 YPA. Who is the understudy to Sean McVay, who just put on tape the way to attack this Eagles defense? Bengals HC Zac Taylor.

I also think the Eagles are an over team right now as well, which is a perfect recipe for Eagles points against the Bengals defense that struggles in every aspect of playing defense. The Bengals pass rush has only four quarterback hits in two games, and their run defense has been absolutely shredded this season as well for 5.5 YPC to opposing backs. The Bengals are one of the few team who can't expose the Eagles offensive line woes.

The only reason that both of these defenses do not have worse season statistics is because of week one matchups against below average Redskins and Chargers offenses. The reality of these defenses is more similar to the week two performances when they took a step up in competition.

ryangenero · Sep 23, 2020

Football Jesus Sunday picks on Podcast, BILLS, and SAINTS

dough · Sep 24, 2020

Essler 3* GOM

Giants

Yankees5560 · Sep 24, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 27 2020 1:00PM
462 NEP -6.0(-110) Southpoint vs 461 LVR double-dime bet

Analysis: The situation heavily favors New England in this matchup. The Patriots are 42-18 ATS since 2003 off a loss, with a cover margin of over six points per game. Las Vegas is off an emotional win on Monday Night, and now they travel to the east coast on a short week. Under Jon Gruden, the Raiders are 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS against teams that finish the season with a winning record.

My original concern was that New England might not be able to cover margin, but Cam Newton is playing excellent football right now, rejuvenating this New England offense. Newton has completed 71.4% of his passes for 8.8 Y/A, and Vegas has allowed 8.1 Y/A through two weeks.

Las Vegas is also dealing with potential cluster injures on the offensive line in RT Trent Brown and LG Richie Incognito.

Yankees5560 · Sep 24, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Sep 27 2020 1:00PM
468 NYG 4.5(-110) BetOnline vs 467 SFX double-dime bet

Analysis:

PROPS WILL BE PUT IN THIS PICK

TNF
Mike Gesicki O45.5 Rec Yds -110 (MGM/BET365)- GOOD UP TO 52.5

Yankees5560 · Sep 24, 2020

HITMAN | NFL Total - Monday, Sep 28 2020 8:15PM
489 KAN / 490 BAL OVER 53.5 Bookmakerdouble-dime bet

Analysis: Patrick Mahomes is an underdog. We haven't heard that often, and we do like the Chiefs catching the 3.5. Mahomes is 5-0-1 ATS as a dog, and won 4 of the 6 games outright. But how has game script gone in those games that Mahomes has been an underdog?

The over has cashed in 5 of Mahomes 6 starts as an underdog. Those games did not only go over, they flew over, with those games averaging a combined 70.5 points per game. This hasn't just been a Mahomes trend either, as last year the Chiefs were underdogs in two games without him playing, and both of those games against Green Bay and Minnesota flew over the total.

The logic is simple on this: When you force an all time great quarterback into urgent situations, his aggressiveness and production is going to skyrocket. What other explanation is there for the fact that Mahomes has led the Chiefs to six consecutive victories when trailing by at least 10 points at any time during the game?

The Ravens offense is likely to put Mahomes in a position where urgency is needed, as they have matchup edges in the running game as well as skill position guys such as Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown. Mahomes has shown time and time again he can deliver when pressed for points. Mahomes has been successful against the Ravens in the past two high scoring meetings (which averaged 55.5 PPG), passing for 751 yards in two meetings. Mahomes throws for 25 more passing yards per game on the road then at home in his career, and his touchdown rate spikes up one percent as well.

The implied team total for Kansas City in this game is 25. points, and the Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs offense has went over that team total in a remarkable 32 of 38 career games. If we are going to lose our KC +3.5 wager, it's likely going to be because of a Ravens offensive onslaught, now because of Mahomes struggling.

Yankees5560 · Sep 24, 2020

Adds:
469 Tennessee Titans first half Over 23.5 -130 (0.5 units)
481 Detroit Lions first half Over 25.5 -120 (0.5 units) [note: we are already on the full game over but this is a value grab - note: if your line is 27 do not bet, stick with over 54 for the game]
487 Green Bay Packers team total Over 23.5 -120 (0.75 units)
___
Early week 3 adds:
301 Miami Dolphins Over 46 (0.75 units)
481 Detroit Lions Over 54 (1 unit)

Yankees5560 · Sep 24, 2020

2020 Week 3: 490 Baltimore Ravens first half -3 (1 unit)

Yankees5560 · Sep 24, 2020

Above is Warren sharp

Yankees5560 · Sep 24, 2020

Warren sharp

2 adds:
301 Miami Dolphins +3 (0.75 units)
462 New England Patriots -5 (1 unit)

GDaddy46 · Sep 25, 2020

InkBets

NFL: New Orleans Saints -3 @ 1.909/-110 (3.5 Units)
-It's very, very hard to see a team involving Sean Payton & Drew Brees getting embarrassed on national television in back to back weeks. I expect a concerted effort from the Saints compared to what they put out last week vs the Raiders.

A huge portion of that game was the Raiders controlling the line on offense and being able to milk clock. Marcus Davenport being out proved fatal in that regard, but he's returned to practice. That is a vital piece of the puzzle versus a QB who can scramble and evade as good as anybody in Aaron Rodgers.

Even if Michael Thomas misses another game this week, the Saints having that extra time to prepare without him is pivotal. I don't see the Saints dropping back to back primetime games here. The Packers came back last week from a 3-14 deficit but if they fall behind here they won't have that luxury. If the Saints start out hot -- they won't look back. Another situation where the public is pouring it on the hot team and they will get punished for it. Saints on a slight -3 line at home is a no brainer.

NFL: Buffalo Bills ML @ 1.813/-123 (3 Units)
-I will gladly take the home team here in this game. I'd be far more hesitant to do so, but the Rams travel has been less than ideal especially with travel conditions being abnormal given the pandemic. Back to back weeks of being on the east coast is less than ideal and practice conditions aren't nearly the same. I love the Bills this year and this is a huge swing game for them. People were quick to discredit Josh Allen but he spent the entire season last year without a receiver over 6 feet tall. Now with the addition of Stefon Diggs he leads the NFL in passing yards having a superstar #1 target with some height to him. Now that we've seen two weeks, the Rams beat an overrated Cowboys team as well as an Eagles team that is very evidently pathetic and now people want to buy high on them talking about them looking like the Rams we saw in the Super Bowl. Public is pouring it on the Rams and in a huge statement game I'll take the home team here.

ConleyPicks · Sep 25, 2020

Stats Analytics Sports (NFL)
All 2* Plays
Minnesota Vikings +3
Carolina Panthers +7
Detroit Lions +6
Denver Broncos +6
Houston Texans +4
Houston Texans/Pittsburgh Steelers Under 45

ConleyPicks · Sep 25, 2020

DR. CHUCK ALL FOOTBALL PLAYS

5% NFL WEEK 3 TOTAL CRUSHER!
Game: (489) Kansas City Chiefs at (490) Baltimore Ravens
Date/Time: Sep 28 2020 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 53.5 (-110)

ConleyPicks · Sep 25, 2020

BRYAN LEONARD

5% AFC Game of the Month
Game:(465) Houston Texans at (466) Pittsburgh Steelers
Date/Time: Sep 27 2020 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Houston Texans +3.5 (-110

ConleyPicks · Sep 25, 2020

CARMINE BIANCO

SUNDAY 5% NFL TOP PLAY
Game:(471) Washington Football Team at (472) Cleveland Browns
Date/Time: Sep 27 2020 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Cleveland Browns -6.5 (-115)

ConleyPicks · Sep 25, 2020

Michael Crosson (VegasInsider - Value Index Week #3 plays)
NFL after 2 weeks Record 6-3ytd.
Las Vegas Raiders +6.5
Minnesota Vikings +3
Denver Broncos +6
Green Bay Packers +3.5

ConleyPicks · Sep 25, 2020

R.J. White

CAROLINA +6.5
CAROLINA @ L.A. CHARGERS | 9/27 | 4:05 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:45 PM
Love, love, love this spot for Teddy Bridgewater and the Panthers. Justin Herbert amazed in his surprise debut last week, but we didn't think he'd be ready for the big stage early in his rookie year, and I bet he'll deal with inconsistency. The Chargers are an ugly home favorite, 2-10-1 ATS in that spot since 2018. They're also coming off an overtime loss after letting the Chiefs off the hook. This is the perfect letdown spot to fade this team and back a Panthers team that's 0-2 ATS, which is a great trend in Week 3. Christian McCaffrey is a big loss, but Mike Davis had some buzz this summer, and this Panthers offense can keep this game close and maybe win outright.

15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
3-1 IN LAST 4 LAC ATS PICKS | +193

DALLAS +5
DALLAS @ SEATTLE | 9/27 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:43 PM
I think the Cowboys have looked pretty good despite being 0-2 ATS, a trend that's worth backing in Week 3. They outplayed the Falcons considerably last week but were done in by fumbles and fake punts. Mike McCarthy has proven himself to be a smart coach, and smart coaches shouldn't be catching a bunch of points. The Seahawks look like the NFC's best team through two weeks but are bound to slow down at some point. I don't think they have the pass-rush talent to challenge a beat-up Dallas O-line that actually played pretty well last week. Also, we get Dak Prescott +5, and he can get us through the backdoor vs. anyone right now.

15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
19-12-2 IN LAST 33 SEA ATS PICKS | +563

UNDER 41.5
SAN FRANCISCO @ N.Y. GIANTS | 9/27 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:42 PM
Both these teams are dealing with big losses on the offensive side of the ball, with the 49ers down a quarterback and two running backs to go with their issues at receiver. George Kittle might be able to return this week, but he can't carry the offense himself with Nick Mullens, who was not impressive in relief last week. The 49ers lost some key pass rushers but can still take advantage of the Giants' O-line, while the San Francisco back seven is talented enough to handle the weapons the Giants still have in place. This seems like a Kyle Shanahan run-fest that shortens the game and keeps it Under.

15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
11-5 IN LAST 16 NYG O/U PICKS | +549

Sunday Service Play Thread 09/27/2020

Let's go Brandon!

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