The Limper Line – NFL – Week 3

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Predictably, these early season projections are flubbing badly in terms of MOV, but projecting straight-up winners is a good indicator that the model is performing correctly. Hopefully, by Week 4 we’ll see a better ATS performance. Also, remember that these “initial” weekly projections are largely based in part on who started last week and does not account for injuries – of which there were a big number , and will impact the second round of projections on Thursday.


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Sorry about this, but my post this morning failed to include the consensus closing lines, which were used to make the final ATS picks (based the final posted MOV projections), and to grade ATS WINS/LOSSES. As I have cautioned before, pick-flips happen, but using the closing lines to grade the model’s performance is the most open and reliable method in have found. Per usual, the closing lines once again killed the model’s ATS record, going 1-3 on the pick-flips.

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