Predictably, these early season projections are flubbing badly in terms of MOV, but projecting straight-up winners is a good indicator that the model is performing correctly. Hopefully, by Week 4 we’ll see a better ATS performance. Also, remember that these “initial” weekly projections are largely based in part on who started last week and does not account for injuries – of which there were a big number , and will impact the second round of projections on Thursday.