Some early pre-season plays

ppeter · Jul 22, 2003

Lines from bluegrass. All for 2 units. I am taking these now because I expect serious line movement once the wise guys take a close look at these games.

Take a look at:
8/8 TB +3 TB playing second game vs. Miami first game (time-worn system). Interstate rivalry where visitor usually does well. Records show Gruden is much more motivated to win in preseason than Wanstadt.

8/9 Baltimore -2 over Buffy. Billick is one of winningest ATS preseason coaches while Williams is one of the worst pre-season coaches ATS. Williams has adopted Marv Levy's "lets not give a ++++ about preseason mentality and the fans are used to Buffy tanking the preseason.

Dallas pk over Arizona Parcells is BAACKKK. One of the biggest pre-season money makers of all time is ready to rumble. He loves to win any game due to his anal retentive competitiveness. You would think McGinnis would go all out in preseason (only chance cards have to win) but they are just as pitiful in pre-season as the regular season. The qb position is now in diarray due to the Plummer defection. I doubt the new wrs and new qbs will have any sort of chemistry. Why the books opened this a pick is totally beyond me, expect Dallas to be laying 3+ by gametime.

[This message was edited by ppeter on July 22, 2003 at 04:39 PM.]

ppeter · Jul 22, 2003

Adding 3 unit play:

NE -2.5 over NYG 8/7

The reasons are obvious, Bellichik comes from the Parcells school of "winning is winning is winning" and has a great preseason ATS record while Fassel does not care about pre season games. NE places importance on winning their home pre season games.

ppeter · Jul 22, 2003

BTW, if any cappers out there with marketing in place need help picking winners and not just selling please let me know where to e-mail you

BigLou+ · Jul 22, 2003

Oops.

Big Lou

Oren1 · Jul 22, 2003

looks good ppeter,

I especially like that Cowboys pick, althoug it the line is now 1 1/2 at Olympic. No matter...
I also like the over in the Jets/Bucs game. Take a look at the scores from the first two preseason games from last year. You're going to see some very sloppy football being played, and IMO that can mean a lot of points being scored. I've seen the line move 1/2 a point on this game overnight. The Chiefs/GB over 35 might be worth taking a look at as well.

good luck.

ppeter · Jul 24, 2003

Thx Oren

I will take a look at playing the first two games over.

Oren1 · Jul 24, 2003

keep in mind that I also thought it would be a good idea to bet on the Raiders in the Superbowl.

bblight · Jul 25, 2003

ppeter,
I agree with the Dallas pick - Parcells will look to set the tone right away and make sure that everyone knows that he's the boss and that they're all suspect until they prove themselves - the 'Boys will literally be playing for their jobs.
I'm leaning with you on the Baltimore pick - but I won't know until game time - you're right about Billick liking to win - especially in week one where his record over the last 5 years is 4-0. Have you looked at the under for this one?
I'll also wait until game time for the Pats/Giants pick, but right now my lean is toward the Giants as road dogs - I think the under might be the way to go here as both teams are tinkering with the defense and seem to be static on offense.
I'll wait until the Osaka game is over before I look at the Tampa/Miami game - but the under will again be high in my sights as the Florida weather should be a factor until the players become acclimatized.

Good luck!

ppeter · Jul 25, 2003

Hiya blight

good to hear from you, we make a potent "team"

I generally stay away from totals in week 1...logically, they should all go under as the defenses are far ahead of the offenses, especially because the offenses rotate 4 platoons in the skill positions with no time to establish any chemistry. However, for reasons I cannot fathom ("fluky" defensive scores?) a good share go over anyway. As the historical results conflict with the rational predictions, I cannot reconcile a way to handicap this so I stay away (ie I cannot predict defensive fluke scores).

winkyduck · Jul 25, 2003

ppeter posted:

Take a look at:
8/8 TB +3 TB playing second game vs. Miami first game (time-worn system). Interstate rivalry where visitor usually does well. Records show Gruden is much more motivated to win in preseason than Wanstadt.

***already played this game - took miami -2.5. keep in mind tampa plays in japan 6 days earlier. the brutal flight home and short rest week puts the bucs in a bad spot here. miami might not be much in NFLX - but the fact fiedler and greise are better than brad johnson and whoever backs him up (as far as the top 2 for miami are better than the top 2 of tampa) helps miami here a lot.

ppeter · Jul 25, 2003

good point Winky

the travel distance back from Japan worried me too, but the deciding factor for me was that playing Miami is not much of a travel for Tampa. This is strictly a system play (play ON a team in its second game vs. a team in its first game is something like a 60% proposition) and a coaching play for me (Gruden is a preseason monster vs. Wanstadt).

Oren1 · Jul 25, 2003

This is exactly why I like the overs, when youv'e got guys out on the field that mught be a little bit confused or whatever, they tend to make mistakes, maybe a lot of turn-overs happen, blown coverage, poor kcik-off coverage, whatever, and that can lead to a lot of points. Just looking at the scores from last year's preseason games, it looks like over 50 percent of them could have gone over, but not knowing the lines or researching it I'm not sure. Anyways, Tampa and the Jets are two teams that are capable of scoring a lot of points, and that over/under is pretty low. It's moved back down the other way, so alot of people like the under, but, I just have a feeling that you're going to see a high scoring game. Not to mention maybe the NFL wants to put on a good show for the Japanese public, they don't really want a low-scoring, boring, preseason, defensinve battle, do they? Not a lot of blitzes, either, can mean more time for the Q.B.s to find their guys as well.

ppeter · Jul 31, 2003

Well Sheeooot Dallas is now up to -3 from a pick! And the game is still 2 weeks off.

Hope y'all followed my advice 9 days ago and pounded it when it was a pick... This could hit -6 by gametime. What maddness.

ppeter · Aug 2, 2003

Raising TB +3 (if you can still find it) to 3 units.

The bucs qb rotation was very, very impressive. Trumps Fiedler vs. Griese (who probably won't play more than a quarter each). The bucs running game looked good too, with a real battle going on between stucker and thomas jones.

Also, from what I read, Gruden spent the whole 20+ hour plane ride each way game planning for this game. Gruden wants this interstate rivalry bad. I bet the Glassers do too, as Dolphin merchandise still outsells Bucs merchandise. Wanstadt has no passion for the preseason (not that he shows any life during the regular season either!).

Railbird · Aug 3, 2003

shaun king better than griese

mjred · Aug 3, 2003

<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by ppeter:
...

Take a look at:
8/8 TB +3 TB playing second game vs. Miami first game (time-worn system). Interstate rivalry where visitor usually does well. Records show Gruden is much more motivated to win in preseason than Wanstadt.

...

[This message was edited by ppeter on July 22, 2003 at 04:39 PM.]<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>

atually, this "time worn system" is 25-25-1 ats over the past 9 preseasons, in 2001 it was real good (7-2 i believe) but ly only 1-2-1

fwiw, ly both of the teams who went to japan came home and lost their next game.

i like the travel angle here, as i think it will be extremely difficult for tampa to recover from that trip on a short week (game is friday)

gl

mj

mjred · Aug 3, 2003

btw, i will also be fading the jets on the travel angle.

bengals +4.5 over jets, wk 1

ProPlaya · Aug 3, 2003

Hey mjred,

I have to agree with you on the Tampa play. I will be going against all odds here and I am taking MIA -2.5. Shaun King is not better than Fiedler or Griese. Yes he looked great against a garbage NYJ defense. You have to realize that Miami's 2nd string defense are starters anywhere else. You are going to have a secondary that will pick off King and Simms. Do you think Fiedler and Griese are going to try to show eachother up? I do. Griese will have a TD or 2 and Jay will try to add one in there too. I think MIA will win, maybe I am wrong. We will just have to wait until Friday to find out. By the way, those TB running backs will do nothing against the Fins front 4 and linebackers. Fins are no Jets I can tell you that, especially on defense.

ppeter · Aug 4, 2003

Mr Red

Actually, what has dragged the system down is the bookmakers inflating the favorites playing their second game.

I think dogs of +3 or more playing their second game versus a favorite playing its first game is something like 6-2 ATS the past 10 seasons

mjred · Aug 4, 2003

ppeter - what dragged it down last year was the fact that 2 of the 4 teams playing thier 2nd vs a team on 1st, played game 1 (wk0) in japan, those 2 lost.
halfway around the world and back in a week is very tough on the body and brain. i'm sticking to the post japan bowl fades.

proplayr - playing on teams that have some serious competition at key positions, particularly qb is also a 'time worn system' might be a bit harder to come up with hard numbers on this one tho but i think its definitely a solid angle to add in the mix. not to say that they will try to 'show each other up' but they are certainly both going to feel the need to impress.