NFL futures and preseason etc.

ATX · Jun 16, 2003

ATLANTA Falcons to win Superbowl +1800 at Pinnacle for .5%

this is a value play for me, and I feel I will be able to sell this prop on the interactives a lot closer to the +1200 and +1300 that I see at other shops right now.

IMO, ATL should be +1000 or less.

2003 schedule:

at DAL
WASH
TB
at CAR
MINN
at ST LOUIS
PHI
at NYG
at NO
TENN
at HOU
CAR
at IND
at TB
JAX

What I'm basically looking at with this schedule is trying to determine how this future's price will fluctuate in the early part of the season. My guess is that this prop will decrease in value as football season nears and more of the public jumps on board- Vick is a public darling.

ATL is a 2pt favorite over Dallas to open the season (I am watching this line like a hawk, as I feel this game can be middled as the public pushes the # to -3.5 or 4, similar to last year's SF/NYG game in week one) and I feel they win that matchup by 3, and beat WASH at home in week 2. Next up is a home game with the defending champion TB Bucs who beat ATL twice last year. This game is crucial to the value on my prop, and ATL will be up for this game. If ATL goes 2-0 then beats TB, I should be seeing 10-1 or less for me to SELL the prop on the interactives. If ATL loses, I dont think the prop loses too much value, more later.

BigLou+ · Jun 16, 2003

ATX,

I've been monitoring the Atl/Dal game as well and agree with you that this is a perfect spot for a middle if the line goes to 3.5 or better. Nice to see we're on the same page on this one.

Big Lou

ATX · Jun 16, 2003

Lou, hopefully DAL has probs at the QB position during preseason, then we may see -4. It will be interesting to see the public's perception of Parcell's abilities, but I still feel this game crosses 3. I get a little add'l info on the Cowboys since I live relatively close, nothing earth-shattering though, and I'll try to post anything I feel may be of consequence. I get a LOT of info on the Longhorns, it is usually most relevant to totals, and I do actually bet against my school (gasp!) on many occasions, as the number gets inflated fairly often.

It's still very early for this, but I'll probably put 2.5% on ATL -2 and appx 1.7% on DAL +3.5, appx 1.9% if I get DAL +4 or more.

HacheMan · Jun 16, 2003

Finally.....someone who agrees with me on Atlanta. They may still have a couple years to go, but I have been saying for months ATX I think Atlanta is the new power rising in the NFC.They are very similar to a young, hungry Bucs team years ago who had to get over the humps of Green Bay at the time, and now that the top teams in the NFC such as Tampa, Phili, Rams, and 49ers are , in my opinion, about to start falling off a tad, Atlanta begins it's rise. The addition of Peerless Price is enormous I believe. He now opens up the field even more so for Vick, Dunn, TJ Duckett, and tight end Crumpler.

HacheMan · Jun 16, 2003

Oh, Im also on my own team, Tampa, Under 10.5 wins......

Jarbo · Jun 16, 2003

Minn vs Atl could be a preview of NFC Championship game

FYI I am a Packer fan so it's an unbiased opinion.

SixthSense · Jun 16, 2003

Jarbo,

A Packer fan as well. I'm not ready to annoit Minnesota a spot in the Championship game but I do believe they have an excellent shot at winning that division. I think the Packers take a step back and the Vikings will be much better than last year, and they played decently at the end of last year.

BigLou+ · Jun 16, 2003

I have to respectfully disagree with you on the Falcons for two reasons.

First, I don't believe Michael Vick is ready as a quarterback to lead a team to a Super Bowl. While he does have a gun for an arm he still scrambles too much and running quarterbacks do not win Super Bowls. Until he throws first and scrambles only as a last resort he will be nothing more then a great athlete playing the quarterback position.

The main reason is actually the coach of the Falcons, Dan Reeves. He is 0-4 in Super Bowl appearances, losing by an average score of 43-15. Ouch. I believe that once you start losing big games like that you never win them because you prepare your team "not to lose the game" instead of preparing them "to win it." Just ask the Buffalo Bills of the early 90's. After that first loss it got worse every year.

I hope for your sake I'm wrong but those two factors are deterring me from giving Atlanta serious consideration as a future wager. Good luck to you.

Big Lou

ATX · Jun 16, 2003

ATL at more than 15 to 1 offers tremendous VALUE. With the team ATL has now they SHOULD win at least 1 superbowl out of 14 in this situation. The public should push the value my way before the season starts as well. If ATL wins its first two then beats TB, I should be able to sell my shares at better than 10 to 1. I'm not really trying to pick the winner of the superbowl, I'll probably sell this long before the playoffs. Even if ATL performs poorly I can still sell them for less than a total loss. I feel this shows value by week 3 appx 60% or more of the time.

I have MINN cirlced as well. They are the next team I am looking at on the total wins/losses and to win it all. I've heard Moss has become more focused this off-season, and I expect them to play better defense. Dome teams seem to perform better than expected against the number.

mjred · Jun 16, 2003

borrowed these from Ted Sevransky (whocovers.com) posted on another site.

2003 Strength of Schedule
Rank
Team
Opp.W
Opp. L
Opp. T
Opp. Pct.
+.500 teams
Playoff teams

1. N.Y. Jets 138 117 1 .541 12 6
2. Dallas 138 117 1 .541 11 7
3. Philadelphia 138 117 1 .541 11 6
4. Tampa Bay 137 117 2 .539 10 8
5. Jacksonville 137 118 1 .537 12 6
6. Washington 137 118 1 .537 10 7
7. Houston 136 119 1 .533 12 7
8. New England 135 121 0 .527 12 7
9. Tennessee 133 121 2 .523 11 7
10. Carolina 133 121 2 .523 10 8
11. Atlanta 134 122 0 .523 8 6
12. N.Y. Giants 133 122 1 .521 9 5
13. New Orleans 132 122 2 .520 8 8
14. Indianapolis 132 123 1 .518 11 6
15. Miami 132 124 0 .516 11 6
16. Cincinnati 129 125 2 .508 10 6
17. Buffalo 129 127 0 .504 11 6
18. Denver 126 129 1 .494 11 6
19. San Diego 124 131 1 .486 10 5
20. Oakland 123 132 1 .482 11 5
21. Baltimore 122 132 2 .480 10 6
22. Cleveland 122 132 2 .480 9 5
23. Chicago 123 133 0 .480 8 4
24. Minnesota 122 133 1 .479 9 6
25. Kansas City 121 134 1 .475 10 5
26. Pittsburgh 121 135 0 .473 9 6
27. Detroit 121 135 0 .473 7 4
28. St. Louis 116 138 2 .457 7 7
29. San Francisco 115 140 1 .451 5 5
30. Green Bay 115 141 0 .449 7 4
31. Seattle 113 142 1 .443 6 5
32. Arizona 113 142 1 .443 5 5

Gridster · Jun 16, 2003

The books I've seen usually set their vig at 35% or more on futures, but if you have several outs and if you go after teams at their highest odds like ATX is doing I think it's possible that you can generate a negative vig on a full list of NFL teams. Its a matter of mixing and matching, and putting down strategic amounts but I think it can be done. Here's the article that tells you how to determine vig for a futures list and how to determine the true odds for each team:

http://www.gridline2000.com/glfeatur/artcl007.html

mjred · Jun 16, 2003

good post gridster, another thing that can help is to eliminate some teams that you know have no chance. i know people will say whatabout the rams at 300-1 a few years back, but really you probably wouldn't have completely eliminated them like you would say cincy, dallas, houston and detroit right now.

HacheMan · Jun 16, 2003

ATX, where do you do your buying and selling?

ATX · Jun 16, 2003

Hache, the only shop I've used on interactives so far is tradesports.com, they used to have a tutorial on the ins and outs of how it all works that explains things pretty well for anyone that is a little confused.

One thing to note is that you can BUY anywhere, but in order to SELL you need to have access to the reverse prop, this is where the interactives come in. I also need to mention that I dont have a lot of experience watching futures prices fluctuate, and the effect that single losses, particular opponents, injuries, etc. have on the market precisely.

What I'm looking at:

MINN team total over 8.5 +132

BUFF to win AFC East: +450
NE " " " ": +400
There are some BIG numbers on Cincinaughty just to win their division, if this team got off to a decent start...

To win Superbowl:
Possible BUYS:

ATL 20 to 1 5dimes
BUFF 40 to 1
MINN 75 to 1
***MIAMI 17 to 1, this is based mostly on MIA's recent superb performance in the first month of the season which is when I would be planning to sell as of now. I need to figure out if this has been taken into account- I think it probably has.

Possible SELLS:

SF +1600
OAK +1000

Feel free to comment on anything, I think most of these prices come from either Pinnacle, Canbet, OLY, 5dimes, CRIS, Carib. I havent cross referenced most of them against interactive prices yet, and havent finished line shopping.

Oren1 · Jun 16, 2003

I have a feeling the only thing stopping the Falcons from making it to the Superbowl is going to be the Bucs. If Vick and Price start to click, watch out. You might know that I am also looking forward to seeing them roll over the Cowpukes week 1.

winbet · Jun 16, 2003

Just a word of warning. I sold Miami at the start of last season as i thought they were underpriced. Although they had a soft start, I also thought the odds had taken this into account. Unfortunately it moved violently, and I struggled all season eventually buying back for a hefty loss when I hit my limit, the rest is history.

As to the question of value, I suggest you formulate a few pre-conceived rules which eliminates ones view becoming tunnel visioned.
I think it is fair to say this time in the season, if you asked anyone who of 2 potential playoff teams they would make favorite in a game, they would ask who was playing at home. Because we dont know and also ignoring the bookies margin, EVENS would be a reasonable price. therefore, with a minimum 3 games to play the odds equate to 7/1. In order to get to this stage the team has to win its division, so by multiplying their odds( minus bookies percentage) for the division by 7/1 you get a price which hasnt taken into account bookies or personal opinions.

Another problem also worth mentioning is that betting too many futures can seriously affect your judgement in regular season games.

ATX · Jun 17, 2003

win, it seems you pay a fair amount of attention to the interactives. Do you have any thoughts on how public driven those markets are? In other words, my hunch is that the price is greatly influenced by fairly sharp players, especially on futures, as opposed to weekly game regular wagers where the public action often creates value by pushing the number the wrong way.

I have some other ideas but I'm too scatterbrained at present, so I'll sleep first.

johnnie2times · Jun 17, 2003

I am not buying into the Atlanta/Dallas game for the line to be Atlanta -3,3.5,or even -4 points.Dallas aint no pushover with Parcells calling the shots.Dallas is one of the best teams today in the NFL as a HOME DOG ATS.Hotlanta is not one of your better road favorites out there.When it is show time, I will grab the points and the moneyline with the Boys.

DIRTYDOG · Jun 17, 2003

Hey Guys..

Its sooooooooo nice to see that I am not the only one sizing up which teams could or should be the "Sleeepers" in this upcoming NFL season.

I have to agree tho with Lou's assessment of the Falcons and their chances of success this season, I personally do not think that Michael Vick is quite really as of yet for the prime time.

As a matter of fact, I have my doubts about his overall ability to be anything more than a "Flash in the pan", remember all of the hoopla that surrounded Kordell Stewart when he was known as the slash?

In my humble opinion, Michael Vick will prove to be just another Kordell Stewart, he will undoubtably show flashes of brilliance from time to time, but in the end the fans will scream for a replacement as those fed-up fans in steel town finally did following years of frustration that stemmed from Kordell not being able to play well in and win the big game.

Kordell was made famous based upon his scrambling ability while in college and of course that last second hail mary pass..

Michael Vick's claim to fame was basically predicated upon the very same thing while at VT and he was able to take advantage, leave school and sign a mega contract.

As far as the season opener goes versus the boyz in Dallas, I will have my duckies firmly behind Parcells, ole Bill drafted well and is following his usual routine of building an excellent defense and putting good special teams on the field mixed with a conservative offense that will not beat themselves.

take care my friends and be well

Jim

[This message was edited by The General on June 17, 2003 at 10:13 PM.]

ATX · Jun 17, 2003

OK, I see ATL has stirred up quite a bit of conversation. This kind of what I'm hoping for with this team as far as the future is concerned. IMO, ATL will be a very public team, and the public will drive the futures price down creating value from the current price. With the use of interactives you dont necessarily have to hold a future for the duration of the season, keep that in mind. My goal is not necessarily to pick the SB winner in the middle of June. Yesterday I didnt like anything in baseball so I spent a few hours trying to set up some profit in football. What I stated earlier is that I hope ATL goes 2-0 and then has TB at home. If ATL beats TB then I should be able to sell ATL for a decent profit (or hold), keep in mind that one can sell at any point during the game. Also keep in mind that if the ATL price goes down to just 15 to 1 the mission is accomplished. I'm relatively sure that certain shops WANT action on the ATL future, but none of these wagers I have listed above will be even half of what I'll wager on single games. I like BUFF and MINN more when evaluating them according to price. J2X, I feel the DAL/ATL game is similar to NYG/SF and DAL/TENN from last year, one of which was successfully middled, it's still very early and the under may be a decent play.