BigPIG19's 2020 Week 3 Selections

BigPIG19 · Sep 24, 2020

Aight folks. A buddy and I do a podcast where we talk through our top plays each week, and banter back and forth.

I cant post the podcast here because it gets flagged for "promotion," but I will post the iTunes link in the promotion forum in case anyone wants to hear 2 rednecks talk about college football.

Last Week: 0-1 -1.1*
Season: 2-1 +2.9*

Our plays:

May you take 'em or fade 'em, Good luck to all, this weekend!

3* Kentucky +7'
1* Virginia Tech -7
1* Troy +14

My writeups (pardon the spelling/half thoughts). Thoughts and comments are welcome!

Louisville +3 @ Pitt	Lost last week on the Cards against Miami, as I think it was a little misleading scoreline. Not saying Miami wasn’t the better team, LW, but it wasn’t as bad at the 13 point spread (Outgained miami by 31, but again lost the TO battle 3-0 - guess that means I'll have LVille next year, as well). I think they bounceback against a slightly overrated Pitt team who is stat heave after beating APeay and Sorrycuse. I think the speed of the cardinals is too much here, and there is a lot of season to make up for that loss. Pitt is 7-14-1 ATS as HF under Narduzzi. I like Louisville getting 3 here.
Kentucky +7' @ Auburn	I think auburn will suffer the worst in the country with limited fans in the stadium. This is a huge break for Kentucky. Auburn lost a lot of talent on their team, LY (only return 10 starters), and KY returns 16 with a coach that has done the most with little over the past 5-6 years. I expect him to have his team ready. The lost Lynn Bowden, but do return Terry wilson who has experience. 4 returning OL and AJ Rose in the back field should take some pressure off of Wilson. I do think this will be a low scoring afair, and I'll back the better run game and at least as good D
Texas -18 @ Tx Tech	I guess time will tell, but I'm confused why this line is under 24. I hate playing the "they'll kill em" card, but I don’t see how Texas doesn’t score every time. I capped the Tech D to be bad, and they gave up 600 yards and 33 points of offense to Houston Baptist. I dont see how Elhinger and co. dont run amock. The Texas D returns it's entire back end which bodes well. I know the TT O rolled up 624 yards, but Texas is a huge step up in talent. Sounds about right that the total is over 70, as I see a high scoring afair. But give me the team that has some semblance of a Defese. I know im bucking the trend of the undersog being 24-11 in UT tilts, but Texas is 8-2 L10 ATS in this series. I like the Longhorns early and often
Liberty -7 vs. FIU	I had some reservations with your Liberty pick, last week, due to first game with new QB, but Auburn XFR Malik Willis looked really good against a solid WKU team. I think Freeze has found the right guy. Im not huge on being on a team off a big(ish) win, but enters an FIU team that hasnt played and only returns 10 players from an underachieving Butch Davis led squad LY. I do expect them to be littererd with transfers to provide some experience, but this offseason is not the right one to learn a new system. The Panther O was 92nd in the nation LY, and only return 4 starters. I dont think there is enough octane to keep up with Liberty. After being a point spread darling for me 2 years ago, FIU was a shaky 5-7 LY. I like the better team with a game under thier belt laying a TD.
Troy +14 @ BYU	This is the other side of my Navy play, last week. While I think BYU is good, I don’t think they are 55-3 over Navy good. They have had a few weeks off (while I think a bye week is nice, 2 weeks off may allow for some rust to set in; and 3 weeks of everyone telling them how good they are). In comes a Troy team that is used to traveling and playing well against big opponents. Troy used a balanced attack LW against MTSU, and have a Defense that returns a good bit or talent and experience (tough to know how good they are against MTSU, but they can at least tackle, which is not something BYU is used to). Troy are 13-5 L18 RG, and BYU is 7-10 as RF under Sitake. I think BYU wins, but its closer than the experts think
Tennessee -3' @ Scar	First game for both. There will be a few fans in the stadium Saturday, but I am not expecting them to matter. I think Tennessee is a much more talented team, and they have expectations and momentum coming into this season. I expect UT to be better on both sides of the ball, and SCar to be a similar team on both sides. Tennessee won this game by 20 last year, and I expect some of the same here with a pretty big coaching mismatch. The road team in 16-6-1 ATS L23 meetings, and I like Tennessee to get this season started the same way last year ended.