Nice card with a couple huge fights tonight
I like these with CAMUR being my top play so far.
My recent record(s)
FWIW I been doing well lately but I'm probably due for an off night. Also I usually don't do as well on the big PPV so I will be treading lightly.
I like these with CAMUR being my top play so far.
-
Aleska Camur -157 … Knight is a raw talent who relies too heavily on his power. He shoots for takedowns often (3.54 avg) but with poor technique. He was KO’d once (although it looked like an early stoppage). He tends to turtle up into a fetal position (see Brundage fight) when taking damage. His striking is subpar although he has power, doesn't really have one punch KO power. Camur’s a very promising prospect with excellent striking, strength, and a good chin…enough to take a few from Knight. His striking defense (66%) should be good enough to avoid taking enogh bombs to get KO’d. Skill level should easily carry him on cards and possible finish. Probably will also lean on 1842 Camur points handicap -3½ -105 as well
- Jake Matthews …could get ugly with his improved boxing, Diego Sanchez is sadly toasted and near the end of the road. Hate laying this big juice but Sanchez is tough enough he may be able to go the distance even getting pounded the whole time. Probably take it ITD -115
- Kai Kara-France -210 ... Royval is a scary sub artist, but KKF is too strong on the feet and will be able to stuff takedowns. Also KKF's striking is way underrated. We could definitely see a finish. 1233 Kara-France wins by TKO/KO +545 looks like a really juicy side bet.
- Israel Adesanya -180 …No matter what you think, Costa doesn’t have terrifying KO power (see L3 fights vs Romero, Hall, Hendricks). He relies on volume (8.43 strikes per min) and unrelenting pressure. Izzy has good enough technique and defense to keep Costa at bay. Costa vs Hall shows how much a quick jab slowed/deterred him from advancing. I’ll concede this is a scary fight as many people point to Gastelum giving Izzy trouble especially in a brawling situation. However, Izzy did weather the storm as his chin was able to hold up. As far as I can tell Izzy has all the standup advantages here and Paulo’s best chance may be getting the fight to the ground…not likely. I see value in later round KO for Izzy as it pays +875, +1050 and +1250 for finishes in 3rd, 4th and 5th respectfully.
My recent record(s)
- 9/19 - ESPN+ 36 [11-9-1 +8.35u
- 9/12 - ESPN+ 35 [11-9 +25.8u]
- 9/05 - ESPN+ 34 [9-4 +9.72u]
- 8/28 - ESPN+33 [10-4 +7.83u]
- 8/22 - ESPN 15 [11-4 +9.15u]
- 8/15 - UFC 252 [12-9 +6.07u]
- 8/08 - ESPN+ 32 [10-12 -7.6u]
- 8/01 - ESPN+ 31 [8-9-1 -1.41u]
- 7/18 - ESPN+ 30 [10-6 +12.85u]
- 7/15 - ESPN 14 [8-12 +1.06u]
- 7/11 - UFC 251[5-10 -10.93u]
FWIW I been doing well lately but I'm probably due for an off night. Also I usually don't do as well on the big PPV so I will be treading lightly.
