Sunday Service Play Thread 10/04/2020

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BuzzKill

BuzzKill

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Yankees5560

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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 1:00PM
267 PIT 1.5(-110) Westgate vs 268 TEN double-dime bet

Analysis: [FONT=&quot]PROPS IN THIS PICK![/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]While we are not getting the value on the spread that I quite hoped for (I make the line Steelers PK -115), I love the matchup for the Steelers against a fraudulent 3-0 team. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]The Steelers have held the last three teams they have faced to 1.9, 4.0, and 1.5 YPC, a year after ranking third in YPC allowed. This run defense is elite, and quite possibly no team in the NFL relies on their run game more then the titans do. Derrick Henry is off to a slow start to the season, averaging only 3.9 YPC through three games. With AJ Brown likely out in week 4, the Titans are short on weapons to attack this Steelers pass defense. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]The titans defense has been a problem recently. The previously putrid vikings offense woke up against them, averaging 7.5 YPP. The previous game, the Jags averaged 6.5 YPP. The titans defense is currently bad in all three phases: Pass rush, stopping the run, and coverage (they will likely be without CB Adoree Jackson once again) The titans find themselves fortunate to have won three 50/50 games against three of the worst teams in the NFL in the Broncos, Jags, and Vikings. [/FONT]
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[FONT=&quot]I expect the Steelers to close a small favorite in this one. Grab them as an underdog while the number is still out there! [/FONT]


 

Yankees5560

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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 4:25PM
275 BUF -2.5(-120) Pinnacle vs 276 LVR double-dime bet

Analysis: This one is all about cluster injuries, and the Raiders inability to beat winning teams.


Jon Gruden's Raiders are 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS against teams that finish the season with a winning record. The Bills are my third rated team in the AFC, and certainly have the looks of a team that will finish the year with a winning record.


The injury situation for Las Vegas is troubling as well. The Raiders go into this game likely without all three of their projected wide receiver starters from the offseason in Tyrell Williams, Bryan Edwards, and Henry Ruggs. The Raiders are also without LG Richie Incognito, and RT Trent Brown is banged up as well.


I expect this number to close closer to 3.5, grab it now!
 

Yankees5560

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265 LAC 7.5(-120) Pinnacle vs 266 TAM double-dime bet

Analysis: The Chargers are a team you want to back getting points, not laying them. Anthony Lynn during his Chargers tenure is 8-4-2 ATS as an underdog, and the Chargers rarely lose by big margin. Even during last years horrendous 11 loss season, only two of the losses were by more then a touchdown.


The Bucs have the reputation of a high flying offense due to the big names of Tom Brady, Gronk, Evans, Godwin... but the Bucs are a defensive led football team with an offense still not clicking on all cylinders. Their offensive line is pretty average, and Brady is still serviceable but not the Brady of old.


No QB had a bigger drop off in completion % last year under pressure then Tom Brady. He also had 3rd biggest drop off in YPA when under pressure. This season has not been much different. Brady is averaging 3.4 YPA under pressure, and the Chargers rank 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate.


The Bucs have a tremendous defense, but Justin Herbert has thrown for 7.8 YPA so far this season, and put some life into the passing game for the Chargers. In a game where I liked the under (we missed out on the 45), I expect points to be at a premium for both teams, which favors the underdog getting over a touchdown.
 

Yankees5560

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sharp

2020 Week 4: 257 Jacksonville Jaguars +3 (1 unit)
open
 

Yankees5560

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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 1:00PM
261 MIN 5.0(-110) Bookmaker vs 262 HOU double-dime bet

Analysis: I was waiting for corona related news to break on this game before releasing. The Vikings are practicing today and have no corona cases. Feel good enough about it to play Minnesota.


I make this game Minnesota +3.25, giving us value at anything over that, and I believe the market has over reacted to the corona related news from the Titans and Vikings game. People will speak about the Vikings practice week being thrown off (they did not practice on Wednesday), but that is not worth a 1.5 point line move in my opinion. The emergence of WR Justin Jefferson is HUGE for a team struggling at playmaker aside from Thielen and Cook. Minnesota has edges in the run game on offense against a Texans rush defense allowing an insane 5.8 YPC to opposing running backs, and also in the passing game against a Texans defense that can't take advantage of Minnesota's offensive weakness (offensive line). This Texans defense also had to play 76 snaps last week while their offense was on the field for only 47 snaps, so fatigue could a small issue for Houston


While Houston has some clear matchup edges for their passing game (which is implied into the line considering how high this total is), it's just flat out too many points that the Vikings are getting.
 

Yankees5560

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HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 1:00PM
265 LAC / 266 TAM UNDER 43.5 Pinnaclesingle-dime bet

Analysis: This play would have been a 2* at the 45 opener, but I am downgrading it to a 1* since we missed the best number. I still believe it has value and should close around 42.


I spoke about in our Chargers write up how Brady struggles against pressure, making this is a bad matchup for the Bucs passing game. The Bucs are also dealing with injuries to their skill position players: RB Leonard Fournette is not practicing, but more importantly two of the Bucs top three wideouts in Godwin (out) and Miller (questionable) are banged up as well.


The Chargers injury report is uninspiring for their offense as well. C Mike Pouncey is already out, and RG Trai Turner, RT Bryan Bulaga, and WR Mike Williams are all questionable for this game.


Chargers games are averaging only 36.3 PPG through three games, and in a game where I have concerns for both offenses production, I have to play under despite the line moving earlier in the week.
 

Yankees5560

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Add: Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl +400 (risk 1 unit) (available at both Fanduel, DraftKings and others) - just a value play on a bad line, it should be much lower than 4:1 with only one first round bye, the Chiefs winning the MNF game vs the Ravens and both remaining schedules - OK to bet thru 3.5:1
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Add: 257 Jacksonville Over 46 (0.75 units)
Add: 261 Minnesota Vikings Over 51.5 (0.75 units)
Add: 251 Indianapolis Colts Over 44 -115 (0.75 units)
Add: 275 Buffalo Bills Over 49.5 (1 unit)
Add: 277 Philadelphia Eagles Over 43 (1 unit)
 
HotshotGambler

HotshotGambler

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NFL Week 4

Colin Cowherd Blazing 5

(8-7) YTD

Dallas -5.5 (Cleveland 26 Dallas 33)
Chicago +2.5 (Colts 23 Chicago 24)
Miami +6 (Seattle 27 Miami 26)
Tampa Bay -7 (LAC 23 Tampa 33)
Buffalo -3 (Buffalo 32 Las Vegas 27)
 

GalenThomas

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Pregame King Creole Sports 3 NFL Over The Total are Over AZ at Carolina , Over NE at KC & Over Seattle at Miami. Anyone have his Saturday SEC Over the Total?
 
bmd1803

bmd1803

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Stats Analytics Sports

All plays 2* plays
NFL
Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
Chicago Bears +3
Chicago Bears/Indianapolis Colts Under 44
Cleveland Browns/Dallas Cowboys Under 56
Baltimore Ravens/Washington Football Team Under 46
 
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