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Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack


Six interesting spreads for Week 4 NFL games:
— Denver (-3) @ NJ Jets
— Indianapolis (-2.5) @ Chicago
— New Orleans (-4) @ Detroit
— Arizona (-3.5) @ Carolina
— Jacksonville @ Cincinnati (-3)
— Cleveland @ Dallas (-4.5)


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 204,905
Please wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but…….


13) Chiefs 34, Ravens 20;
— Chiefs won their first three games, scoring 34-23 -34 points.
— KC kicker made two 58-yard FG’s last week; he missed a PAT and a FG in this game.
— Last 4+ years, Chiefs are 11-2 ATS as a road underdog.
— Chiefs won last four series games, by 20-3-5-14 points.


— Lamar Jackson is 0-3 against the Chiefs, 21-1 vs everyone else.
— Baltimore converted 3-9 on third down, Kansas City 10-13.
— Ravens are 9-16 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.


12) Tennessee Titans are 3-0 this season, but they haven’t covered a spread yet; their three wins are by a total of six points. Titans have turned ball over only once, are +4 in turnovers.


11) I’m not a big fan of NFL teams trading star players for draft picks:
— Houston traded WR DeAndre Hopkins to Arizona, they’re 0-3, scoring 19 ppg.
— Arizona is 2-1, scoring 29 ppg.


— Minnesota traded WR Stefon Diggs to Buffalo; they’re 0-3, despite scoring 25 ppg. Vikings have converted only 9-25 third down plays.
— Buffalo is 3-0, scoring 31 ppg.


10) Nick Foles will be Chicago’s starting QB when the 3-0 Bears host Indianapolis Sunday; he came off the bench Sunday and led the Bears to a 30-26 comeback win in Atlanta.


9) College football spread results in conference games so far:
— Home favorites 7-10-1 against the spread
— Home underdogs 7-5 against the spread


8) Arkansas landed Florida transfer Felipe Franks as its new QB this fall, ending a two-year debacle where eight (8!!!) different kids played QB for the Razorbacks- one of them is the grandson of Cowboys’ owner Jerry Jones.


Arkansas has lost its last 20 SEC games; Franks needs a lot of help.


7) Sam Pittman is the new football coach at Arkansas; like a lot of football coaches, Pittman has lived a little bit of a nomadic existence. Here are the coaching stops he’s made:


1984-85: Pittsburg State (GA)
1986: Offensive coordinator at a high school in Oklahoma
1987-88: Head coach at a high school in Missouri
1989-90: Head coach at a different high school in Missouri


1991: Offensive line coach at a junior college
1992-93: Head coach at that junior college
1994-95: Offensive line coach at Northern Illinois
1996: Offensive line coach at U of Cincinnati


1997-98: Offensive line coach at Oklahoma
1999: Assistant head coach, Western Michigan
2000: Offensive line coach, Missouri
2001: Offensive line coach, Kansas


2003-06: Offensive line coach, Northern Illinois
2007-11: Offensive line coach, North Carolina
2012: Offensive line coach, Tennessee
2013-15: Offensive line coach, Arkansas


2016-9: Offensive line coach, Georgia
2020: Head coach, Arkansas


This man must be great at packing; he’s paid his dues. Have to root for the guy.


6) I try to keep politics out of this space, but seriously? Donald Trump supposedly spent $70,000 on personal hairstyling “for television” and wrote it off on his taxes as a business expense. He paid $70,000 for that mess? I call BS on that.


As a bald man, I have to laugh; what a fraud he is.


5) Lakers-Heat NBA final is first time ever the NBA final is between two teams who both missed the playoffs the year before.


4) 5th-seeded Miami is lowest-seeded NBA team to make the finals since the 1995 Rockets, who beat Orlando in the finals that year.


3) If Seattle has a WNBA team, why can’t they have an NBA team? One of the great injustices in pro sports history was Seattle losing the SuperSonics- they supported the team, but they refused to build a new arena they didn’t need, so the league took their team away.


12 years later, Seattle has a new arena (they’re getting an NHL team); next time an NBA team needs to move, Seattle should be the first option.


2) Surprising news: LA Clippers told coach Doc Rivers to take a hike after seven years; Clippers lost to Denver in the playoffs, blowing a 3-1 series, when they led by 10+ points in each of those last three losses.


Rivers had a 356-208 regular season record with the Clippers , was 27-32 in playoff games; he won the 2008 NBA title coaching Boston. If he still wants to coach, he won’t be unemployed for long.


1) If the baseball playoffs started today (they do):
AL East: Tampa Bay, New York
AL Central: Minnesota, Cleveland
AL West: Oakland, Houston
AL wild cards: Chicago, Toronto


NL East: Atlanta, Miami
NL Central: Chicago, St Louis
NL West: Los Angeles, San Diego
 
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MLB public betting, line movement September 29
Patrick Everson


Aaron Hicks and the Yankees open their wild-card series against the Indians on Tuesday night. DraftKings Sportsbook opened host Cleveland a slim -112 favorite and flipped to New York -110.


MLB betting odds are on the board for the playoffs, which begin with a four-game Tuesday schedule featuring the AL wild-card series openers. The New York Yankees and Cleveland Indians meet under the lights, while the defending AL champion Houston Astros open the day’s action against the Minnesota Twins.


DraftKings Sportsbook provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Tuesday’s games.


MLB line movement


New York had a very up-and-down cycle the past month and a half, first falling into a 5-15 rut, then winning 10 in a row before going 2-6 to end the regular season. Series host Cleveland is on a roll, going 9-2 in its last 11 games. DraftKings opened the 7 p.m. ET Game 1 at Indians -112/Yankees -104, but that line flipped to Yankees -110/Indians -106 by Monday afternoon.


Houston went 2-5 in its last seven games, while Minnesota went the opposite at 5-2 while winning the tightly contested AL Central. The series host Twins opened -150 at DraftKings and moved to -165 Monday afternoon, with the Astros +140 underdogs in a 2 p.m. ET first pitch.


The Chicago White Sox and Oakland A’s open their wild-card series in a 3 p.m. ET clash at Oakland. DraftKings opened Game 1 at White Sox -130/A’s +112, and there was no movement through Monday afternoon.


The Toronto Blue Jays and top-seeded Tampa Bay Rays get started with a 5 p.m. ET contest. DraftKings opened late Monday afternoon at Rays -200/Blue Jays +170.


MLB public betting


Early action Monday at DraftKings showed the Yankees were a popular play, with New York landing 74 percent of bets and 65 percent of cash on the moneyline against Cleveland. Astros-Twins monyeline was seeing two-way action early, with 52 percent of tickets on Houston and money split 50/50.


And the White Sox were attracting 80 percent of tickets and 87 percent of cash on the moneyline against the A’s, through Monday afternoon.
 
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931NY YANKEES -932 CLEVELAND
NY YANKEES are 4-12 SU (-10.5 Units) in road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.


933HOUSTON -934 MINNESOTA
HOUSTON is 19-33 SU (-17.7 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.


935TORONTO -936 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 34-18 SU (14.2 Units) in home games after a game where the bullpen gave up no earned runs in the last 3 seasons.


937CHI WHITE SOX -938 OAKLAND
CHI WHITE SOX is 20-6 SU (14.5 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.








MLB
Dunkel


Tuesday, September 29

Houston @ Minnesota


Game 933-934
September 29, 2020 @ 2:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Greinke) 13.320
Minnesota
(Maeda) 17.436
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 4
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-160
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-160); Over


Chicago White Sox @ Oakland


Game 937-938
September 29, 2020 @ 3:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Chicago White Sox
(Giolito) 15.404
Oakland
(Luzardo) 13.897
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago White Sox
by 1 1/2
12
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago White Sox
-120
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago White Sox
(-120); Over


Toronto @ Tampa Bay


Game 935-936
September 29, 2020 @ 5:07 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Shoemaker) 16.737
Tampa Bay
(Snell) 18.363
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-185
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-185); Under


NY Yankees @ Cleveland


Game 931-932
September 29, 2020 @ 7:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Cole) 14.261
Cleveland
(Bieber) 15.131
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-115
6 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(-105); Under








MLB
Long Sheet


Tuesday, September 29


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NY YANKEES (33 - 27) at CLEVELAND (35 - 25) - 7:00 PM
GERRIT COLE (R) vs. SHANE BIEBER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
NY YANKEES are 12-18 (-14.0 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
NY YANKEES are 5-10 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in road games in September games this season.
NY YANKEES are 9-13 (-9.8 Units) against the money line in road games in night games this season.
NY YANKEES are 41-42 (-15.4 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
NY YANKEES are 9-18 (-16.4 Units) against the money line after a loss this season.
NY YANKEES are 10-14 (-9.8 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CLEVELAND is 219-168 (-32.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 42-37 (-19.2 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 140-112 (-30.8 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 122-96 (-29.8 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
CLEVELAND is 71-84 (-30.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

GERRIT COLE vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
COLE is 3-1 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 2.50 and a WHIP of 0.750.
His team's record is 3-2 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-3. (-1.5 units)

SHANE BIEBER vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
BIEBER is 1-0 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 8.30 and a WHIP of 1.615.
His team's record is 1-1 (-0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (29 - 31) at MINNESOTA (36 - 24) - 2:00 PM
ZACK GREINKE (R) vs. KENTA MAEDA (R)
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 29-31 (-12.8 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 9-21 (-15.7 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
HOUSTON is 10-17 (-14.1 Units) against the money line in September games this season.
HOUSTON is 17-21 (-10.6 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
HOUSTON is 52-43 (-11.0 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 137-88 (+22.5 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 23-7 (+13.0 Units) against the money line in home games this season.
MINNESOTA is 301-270 (+45.9 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday since 1997.
MINNESOTA is 106-63 (+23.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
MINNESOTA is 57-31 (+19.5 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 29-6 (+18.4 Units) against the money line when playing with a day off over the last 2 seasons.
GREINKE is 50-27 (+20.1 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

ZACK GREINKE vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
GREINKE is 4-9 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 4.65 and a WHIP of 1.443.
His team's record is 5-15 (-11.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 8-11. (-4.6 units)

KENTA MAEDA vs. HOUSTON since 1997
MAEDA is 0-1 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 8.44 and a WHIP of 1.501.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (32 - 28) at TAMPA BAY (40 - 20) - 5:00 PM
HYUN-JIN RYU (L) vs. BLAKE SNELL (L)
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 40-20 (+11.5 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 31-15 (+17.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 or less over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 29-14 (+10.2 Units) against the money line in night games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 142-84 (+37.1 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 13-4 (+9.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
SNELL is 22-10 (+14.0 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
TORONTO is 55-61 (+9.4 Units) against the money line against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 6-4 (-0.5 Units) against TORONTO this season
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.8 Units)

HYUN-JIN RYU vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
RYU is 0-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 3.72 and a WHIP of 1.034.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. TORONTO since 1997
SNELL is 4-3 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 2.95 and a WHIP of 1.187.
His team's record is 8-5 (-0.1 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 6-6. (-0.3 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHI WHITE SOX (35 - 25) at OAKLAND (36 - 24) - 3:00 PM
LUCAS GIOLITO (R) vs. SEAN MANAEA (L)
Top Trends for this game.
GIOLITO is 2-10 (-10.7 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
OAKLAND is 132-89 (+25.8 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 28-12 (+15.8 Units) against the money line at home when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 73-37 (+22.9 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 152-114 (+27.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
OAKLAND is 49-34 (+20.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
MANAEA is 15-3 (+11.9 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons. (Team's Record)
CHI WHITE SOX are 107-114 (+16.9 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CHI WHITE SOX are 14-0 (+14.0 Units) against the money line against left-handed starters this season.
GIOLITO is 14-5 (+12.0 Units) against the money line in road games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
MANAEA is 3-14 (-11.6 Units) against the money line when playing on Tuesday since 1997. (Team's Record)

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

LUCAS GIOLITO vs. OAKLAND since 1997
GIOLITO is 1-1 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 4.15 and a WHIP of 1.154.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-1. (-0.2 units)

SEAN MANAEA vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
MANAEA is 1-0 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------






MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Tuesday, September 29


Best-of-3 series
American League
Astros (29-31) @ Twins (36-24)
Greinke is 0-3, 6.53 in his last four starts.
— Astros are 4-8 in his starts this year, 0-6 on the road.
— Under is 6-4-2 in his starts.
— Greinke is 3-6, 4.21 in 16 career postseason starts.
— He is 5-9, 4.64 in 24 games (20 starts) vs Minnesota.


— Houston is 9-23 on the road this year; they’re 3-8 in last 11 road tilts.
— Astros are 7-8 in their last 15 games overall.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.


Maeda is 2-0, 3.00 in his last four starts.
— Twins are 8-3 in his starts, 5-0 at home.
— Under is 6-1 in his last seven starts.
— Maeda is 2-1, 3.31 in 24 postseason games (only 3 starts, 32.2 IP)
— He allowed five runs in 5.1 IP in his only career start vs Houston.


— Minnesota is 24-7 at home this season.
— Twins won five of their last seven games overall.
— Minnesota is in playoffs for third time in four years; they haven’t made the ALCS since 2002.
— Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.


White Sox (35:35) @ A’s (36-24)
Giolito is 2-1, 4.71 in five starts since he threw a no-hitter August 25.
— White Sox are 7-5 in his starts, 4-1 on the road.
— Under is 8-4 in his starts this season.
— Giolito is 1-1, 4.15 in two career starts vs Oakland.
— He’s never pitched in the postseason.


— Chicago is in playoffs for first time since 2008.
— White Sox are 14-0 this season vs lefty starters.
— Chicago lost seven of its last eight games overall.
— Last four White Sox games went over the total.


Luzardo is 1-1, 4.03 in his last four starts; he allowed three runs in three IP in an odd relief appearance last week.
— Oakland is 5-4 in his starts, 5-1 at home.
— Under is 6-3 in his starts this season.
— Luzardo threw three scoreless innings in relief in the Wild Card game LY, his only postseason experience.
— He’s never pitched against the White Sox.


— A’s are in playoffs for third year in a row- they haven’t advanced in playoffs since 2006.
— Oakland lost five of its last eight games overall; their best player, 3B Chapman is out for the year.
— A’s are 22-10 at home this season.
— Under is 3-1-1 in their last five games.


Blue Jays (32-28) @ Rays (40-20)
Shoemaker is 0-1, 5.02 in six starts this season.
— Toronto is 2-4 in his starts, 1-3 on the road.
— Over is 4-2 in his starts.
— Shoemaker allowed one (unearned) run in six IP in his only postseason start, six years ago.
— He is 4-0, 2.56 in seven career starts vs Tampa Bay.


— Toronto is in the playoffs for first time since 2016.
— Blue Jays are used to being on the road; they played “home” games this year in Buffalo.
— Toronto is 15-19 on the road this season.
— Blue Jays won six of their last eight games overall.
— Over is 11-4 in their last fifteen games.


Snell is 1-1, 2.20 in his last three starts; he is 2.35 in two starts vs Toronto this year.
— Rays are 7-4 in his starts this year, 3-2 at home.
— Over is 7-3-1 in his starts this year.
— Snell is 4-3, 2.81 in 13 career starts vs Toronto.
— He allowed one run in 5.1 IP in three postseason games (one start).


— Tampa Bay is in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Rays are 20-9 at home this season.
— Tampa Bay won nine of its last 11 games overall.
— Under is 10-3 in Rays’ last 13 games.
— Rays are 6-4 vs Toronto this season, 4-3 in the Trop.


New York (33-27) @ Indians (35-25)
Cole is 3-0, 0.86 in his last three starts.
— New York is 8-4 in his starts this year, 4-2 on the road.
— Over is 6-4-2 in his starts this year, 3-2-1 on road.
— Cole is 2-1, 2.79 in four career starts vs Cleveland.
— He is 6-4, 2.60 in ten career postseason starts.


— New York is in playoffs for 4th year in a row, 22nd time in 26 years
— New York 11-18 on the road this season.
— They lost six of their last eight games overall.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.


Bieber is 8-1, 1.77 in 12 starts this year.
— Cleveland is 10-2 in his starts this year, 4-0 at home.
— Under is 10-2 in Bieber’s starts.
— Bieber allowed nine runs in 8.2 IP in two starts vs New York.
— He hasn’t pitched in the postseason.


— Indians are in playoffs for 4th time in five years.
— Cleveland Is 18-12 at home this year.
— Indians are 9-2 in last 11 games, to jump up to the #4 seed.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.








MLB

Tuesday, September 29

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Houston @ Minnesota
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games
Houston is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston
Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Houston


Chi White Sox @ Oakland
Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games
Oakland
Oakland is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox


Toronto @ Tampa Bay
Toronto
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games


NY Yankees @ Cleveland
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games on the road
Cleveland
Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing NY Yankees
Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
 
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AL Wild Card Cheat Sheet
Kevin Rogers


The 60-game Major League Baseball season flew by and what remains are 16 teams playing for the World Series. This year's postseason is unique from several standpoints as the most teams ever will participate for the crown, while the final three rounds will be played at neutral sites.


The opening round involves a best-of-three series with the higher seed as the host. The three division champions in each league are the top three seeds, while the next three seeds are the second-place finishers from each division.


The final two teams to qualify for the playoffs in each league are the Wild Card teams, as Houston found a way to sneak into the postseason in spite of a 29-31 record.


#1 Tampa Bay Rays vs. #8 Toronto Blue Jays


TB: 40-28 SU, 21-9 Home, 27-30-3 O/U
TOR: 32-28 SU, 15-15 Road, 29-28-3 O/U


Series Price


Tampa Bay -230
Toronto +195


Series Schedule


Game 1 - Tuesday, Sept. 29 - 5 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 2 - Wednesday, Sept. 30 - 4 p.m. ET (TBS)
Game 3 - Thursday, Oct. 1 (If Necessary)


The Rays are back in the postseason for the second straight year, but this time, Tampa Bay owns the top seed in the American League. This series is the only one out of the eight first round matchups that involves two division rivals.


Tampa Bay captured six of 10 regular season meetings with Toronto, including a 4-2 mark at Tropicana Field. The Rays closed the campaign by winning 12 of their final 16 games, but the Blue Jays beat the Rays in each of their three series openers this season, including twice in St. Petersburg.


The Blue Jays were one of the biggest surprises in the American League this season with their young roster, while winning six of eight games down the stretch. However, Toronto posted a 12-15 record against playoff teams, including a 5-10 road mark.




#2 Oakland Athletics vs. #7 Chicago White Sox


OAK: 36-24 SU, 21-9 Home, 26-32-2 O/U
CHW: 35-25 SU, 17-13 Away, 27-31-2 O/U


Series Price


Chicago -115
Oakland -105


Series Schedule


Game 1 - Tuesday, Sept. 29 - 3 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 2 - Wednesday, Sept. 30 - 3 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 3 - Thursday, Oct. 1 (If Necessary)


Both these teams stumbled down the stretch in spite of finishing with two of the best records in the American League. Oakland picked up its first AL West championship since 2013 and is making its third consecutive playoff appearance. However, the A's haven't won a postseason series since 2006, as they have been eliminated in their first round of play six straight times in this span.

Oakland lost five of its final eight games to close the season, but the A's had a comfortable lead atop the division over the Astros. The A's put together a 9-7 record against postseason squads, although seven of those victories came against Houston, who finished below .500 on the season.


The White Sox had elevated expectations this season and lived up to them. Chicago is back in the playoffs for the first time since grabbing the AL Central title in 2008 as the Sox posted a winning record for the first time since 2012. However, the Sox went 2-8 in their final 10 games to fall short of the division title, while going 14-22 against playoff teams in 2020.




#3 Minnesota Twins vs. #6 Houston Astros


MIN: 36-24 SU, 23-7 Home, 20-36-4 O/U
HOU: 29-31 SU, 9-21 Road, 29-28-3 O/U


Series Price


Minnesota -170
Houston +150


Series Schedule


Game 1 - Tuesday, Sept. 29 - 2 p.m. ET (ABC)
Game 2 - Wednesday, Sept. 30 - 1 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Game 3 - Thursday, Oct. 1 (If Necessary)


The Twins are back-to-back AL Central champions since 2009 and 2010 as Minnesota seeks its first playoff series win since 2002. Luckily, the Twins avoid the Yankees in the first round, who have eliminated Minnesota in the playoffs six times dating back to 2003.


Minnesota owned the top home record in baseball this season, which includes an impressive 13-5 mark against teams headed to the postseason. The Twins didn't face the Astros this season, but won three of four home matchups at Target Field in 2019. However, none of the four starting pitchers for Houston in that series will take the mound in this series, as Game 1 starter Zack Greinke was traded to the Astros three months after these teams hooked up.


The Astros saw their streak of three consecutive AL West titles end this season, but Houston still crawled into the postseason despite its first losing record since 2014. Houston lost ace Gerrit Cole in free agency to the Yankees and Cy Young winner Justin Verlander made one start before getting shut down due to an elbow injury. The Astros have their work cut out for them as they won only nine road games, including a 2-10 away mark against playoff squads.




#4 Cleveland Indians vs. #5 New York Yankees


CLE: 35-25 SU, 18-12 Home, 21-35-4 O/U
NYY: 33-27 SU, 12-18 Road, 29-27-4 O/U


Series Price


New York -130
Cleveland +110

Series Schedule


Game 1 - Tuesday, Sept. 29 - 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 2 - Wednesday, Sept. 30 - 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 3 - Thursday, Oct. 1 (If Necessary)


The Yankees are back in the playoffs for the fourth consecutive season, although they failed to win the AL East three times in this span. New York survived a rash of injuries to several star hitters, including Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, and Giancarlo Stanton as the Yankees lost six of their final eight games following a nine-game winning streak in September.


The Indians rebounded from an eight-game September skid to win nine of their last 11 contests to finish ahead of the White Sox for second place in the AL Central and one game behind Minnesota for the top spot. Cleveland's starting rotation put together terrific numbers as three hurlers finished with an ERA of 3.00 or lower, led by AL Cy Young favorite Shane Bieber, who posted an 8-1 record and 1.63 ERA.


Cleveland compiled a 12-5 home record against playoff teams this season, while New York stumbled to a 3-10 road mark when facing postseason squads.
 
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TUESDAY, SEPTEMBER 29


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS


HOU at MIN 02:08 PM
MIN -175
O 7.5
+500 +500


CHW at OAK 03:08 PM
OAK +110
U 7.5
+500 +500


TOR at TB 05:07 PM
TOR +170
O 7.5
+500 +500


NYY at CLE 07:08 PM
CLE -110
O 6.5
+500 +500
 
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RECORD THRU THE WORLS SERIES:




DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/29/2020 2-6-0 25.00% -2525 Detail
 
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Armadillo: Wednesday's six-pack


Six interesting spreads for Week 4 NFL games:
— Chargers @ Tampa Bay (-7)
— Ravens (-13) @ Washington
— NJ Giants @ LA Rams (-13)
— New England @ Kansas City (-7)
— Buffalo (-3) @ Las Vegas
— Philadelphia @ San Francisco (-7)


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 205,268
Please wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Wednesday's Den: Mid-week musings……..


13) Tennessee Titans had three players, five staff members test positive for COVID; they shut down their facility until Saturday. Minnesota Vikings also shut down their facility until their contact tracing is finished, since they hosted the Titans Sunday. No word yet if this changes this weekend’s schedule at all.


12) NFL teams with the most plays of 20+ yards this season:
19— Buffalo
18— LA Rams
17— Dallas
16— Detroit, Green Bay, Minnesota


11) NFL teams with the fewest plays of 20+ yards this season:
6— Cincinnati
7— NJ Jets
8— Carolina
9— NJ Giants, New Orleans, Miami, Tennessee


10) NFL defenses that have allowed the fewest plays of 20+ yards this year:
8— Tampa Bay
9— Jacksonville, LA Rams, LA Chargers
10— Kansas City, NJ Giants


9) NFL defenses that allowed the most plays of 20+ yards this year:
18— Atlanta
15— Chicago, Green Bay, Minnesota
14— Detroit, Seattle, Tennessee, Cincinnati, Baltimore


8) Lamar Jackson has started 27 NFL games; the team leading at halftime won every game. Ravens trailed six of those games at the half.


7) Denver Broncos will start their 3rd different QB in four weeks Thursday, when Brett Rypien gets his first NFL start against the Jets in Swamp Stadium.


6) Cincinnati Reds are first major league team EVER to have more walks than singles over the course of a season; Reds walked 239 times, had 221 singles. Granted it was a 60-game season, but that’s a lot of walks, or not a lot of singles.


5) Houston 4, Minnesota 1— Greinke got out of a 30-pitch first inning without allowing a run, but only lasted four innings. Valdez was stellar with five shutout innings of relief, Brantley knocked in a couple run and Minnesota lost its 17th straight playoff game, dating back to 2004.


4) Chicago 4, Oakland 1— Lucas Giolito had a perfect game into the 7th inning; Jose Abreu hit a 2-run homer, as the White Sox won in their first playoff game since 2008.


Giolito’s grandfather was an actor who played Susan’s father on Seinfeld.


3) Tampa Bay 3, Toronto 1— Blake Snell allowed three baserunners while throwing 5.2 scoreless innings; Tampa Bay had gotten saves from 12 different pitchers this season, but Fairbanks got this save, and he wasn’t one of those 12 guys. Incredible juggling of a pitching staff.


2) New York 12, Cleveland 3— Shane Bieber picked a bad night to have a bad night; he gave up seven runs over 4.2 IP. New York hit four home runs; they send Tanaka out to the moumd for the two-game sweep Wednesday.


1) The presidential debate was so tedious/annoying last night, I put the WNBA game on- much better to watch. What an embarrassment. Our country desires better than this.
 
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MLB public betting, line movement September 30
Patrick Everson


Mookie Betts and the top-seeded Dodgers open the NL wild-card round Wednesday night against the Brewers. FanDuel pegged Los Angeles a hefty -245 favorite, with Milwaukee at +210.


MLB betting odds are on the board for Wednesday’s wild-card playoff schedule, and it is full, as all eight series are in play. Four teams are already one win away from advancing, after posting victories Tuesday, and the World Series favorite Los Angeles Dodgers open their series against the Milwaukee Brewers.


FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Wednesday’s games.


MLB line movement


Los Angeles posted the best record in the majors in this shortened regular season, at 43-17, including 10-2 in its last 12 games. Milwaukee went 2-4 in its last six and barely made the postseason, as the NL’s eighth seed and the only playoff team under .500, with a 29-31 mark.


As such, it should be no surprise that the Dodgers opened -245 and the Brewers +210 for a 10:08 p.m. ET first pitch.


The New York Yankees are the road team against the Cleveland Indians, but the Pinstripes got to Shane Bieber and Co. in a 12-3 Game 1 rout Tuesday and can advance with a win in Wednesday’s 7:08 p.m. ET contest. FanDuel opened at Yankees -126/Indians +108, and there was no movement by late Tuesday.


The Chicago Cubs open their best-of-3 series against the visiting Miami Marlins in a 2:08 p.m. ET start. FanDuel has Chicago at -164 and Miami +144, and there was no line movement through Tuesday night.


The defending AL champion Houston Astros got the No. 6 seed and therefore had to go on the road against the Minnesota Twins. But Houston got a 4-1 win Tuesday and can move on with a victory in Wednesday’s 1:08 p.m. ET meeting. Although it’s an early start, the line for this game wasn’t posted late Tuesday night.


MLB public betting


The Cincinnati Reds-Atlanta Braves tilt, which begins the day at 12:08 p.m. ET, is a pitcher’s duel of Trevor Bauer (5-4, 1.73 ERA) and Max Fried (7-0, 2.25 ERA). The Braves were -126 favorites at FanDuel late Tuesday, but the Reds were getting 68 percent of tickets and 67 percent of cash on the moneyline.


By contrast, the Consensus had the Braves landing 63 percent of picks through Tuesday night. The Consensus also had 75 percent of early picks on the Dodgers, against the Brewers.


Marlins-Cubs had Chicago taking 61 percent of bets and 68 percent of money at FanDuel. And interestingly, +142 underdog St. Louis was attracting 61 percent of tickets/58 percent of money at San Diego for a 5:08 p.m. ET matchup.
 
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939NY YANKEES -940 CLEVELAND
NY YANKEES are 4-12 SU (-10.5 Units) in road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.


941HOUSTON -942 MINNESOTA
HOUSTON is 19-33 SU (-17.7 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.


943TORONTO -944 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 76-56 SU (14.4 Units) in home games against right-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.


945CHI WHITE SOX -946 OAKLAND
CHI WHITE SOX is 20-6 SU (14.5 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.


947MIAMI -948 CHICAGO CUBS
MIAMI is 13-2 SU (10.6 Units) in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.


949ST LOUIS -950 SAN DIEGO
ST LOUIS are 10-21 SU (-13.1 Units) on the road when the total is 7 to 7.5 in the last 3 seasons.


951CINCINNATI -952 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 7-1 SU (5.9 Units) after scoring 1 run or less in the current season.


953MILWAUKEE -954 LA DODGERS
MILWAUKEE is 28-40 SU (-16 Units) in road games after having lost 2 of their last 3 games in the last 3 seasons.
 
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Dunkel


Wednesday, September 30


Cincinnati @ Atlanta


Game 951-952
September 30, 2020 @ 12:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
(Bauer) 16.597
Atlanta
(Fried) 18.054
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-125
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-125); Under


Houston @ Minnesota


Game 941-942
September 30, 2020 @ 1:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(Urquidy) 14.340
Minnesota
(Berrios) 16.417
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Minnesota
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
-150
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Minnesota
(-150); Under


Miami @ Chicago Cubs


Game 947-948
September 30, 2020 @ 2:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Alcantara) 14.564
Chicago Cubs
(Hendricks) 15.720
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1
5
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-160
No Total
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-160); N/A


Chicago White Sox @ Oakland


Game 945-946
September 30, 2020 @ 3:10 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Chicago White Sox
(Keuchel) 15.065
Oakland
(Bassitt) 16.536
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
-120
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
(-120); Over


Toronto @ Tampa Bay


Game 943-944
September 30, 2020 @ 4:07 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Toronto
(Ryu) 16.600
Tampa Bay
(Glasnow) 18.501
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Tampa Bay
by 2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-160
7
Dunkel Pick:
Tampa Bay
(-160); Under


St. Louis @ San Diego


Game 949-950
September 30, 2020 @ 5:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Kim) 14.385
San Diego
(Paddack) 17.227
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
San Diego
by 3
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
-160
8
Dunkel Pick:
San Diego
(-160); Over


NY Yankees @ Cleveland


Game 939-940
September 30, 2020 @ 7:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
NY Yankees
(Tanaka) 15.146
Cleveland
(Carrasco) 16.246
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Cleveland
by 1
11
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
NY Yankees
-120
8
Dunkel Pick:
Cleveland
(+100); Over


Milwaukee @ LA Dodgers


Game 953-954
September 30, 2020 @ 10:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
(Suter) 13.730
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 17.360
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 4 1/2
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-230
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-230); Over
 
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Long Sheet


Wednesday, September 30


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


NY YANKEES (33 - 27) at CLEVELAND (35 - 25) - 7:00 PM
MASAHIRO TANAKA (R) vs. CARLOS CARRASCO (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MASAHIRO TANAKA vs. CLEVELAND since 1997
TANAKA is 3-2 when starting against CLEVELAND with an ERA of 3.35 and a WHIP of 1.209.
His team's record is 4-3 (+0.5 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-3. (+0.6 units)

CARLOS CARRASCO vs. NY YANKEES since 1997
CARRASCO is 3-5 when starting against NY YANKEES with an ERA of 3.99 and a WHIP of 1.242.
His team's record is 4-6 (-1.7 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-6. (-3.1 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

HOUSTON (29 - 31) at MINNESOTA (36 - 24) - 1:00 PM
LANCE MCCULLERS JR. (R) vs. JOSE BERRIOS (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

LANCE MCCULLERS JR. vs. MINNESOTA since 1997
MCCULLERS JR. is 0-1 when starting against MINNESOTA with an ERA of 6.48 and a WHIP of 1.560.
His team's record is 0-3 (-4.8 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-2. (-1.2 units)

JOSE BERRIOS vs. HOUSTON since 1997
BERRIOS is 2-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 6.43 and a WHIP of 1.905.
His team's record is 2-3 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 0-3. (-3.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TORONTO (32 - 28) at TAMPA BAY (40 - 20) - 4:00 PM
TAIJUAN WALKER (R) vs. TYLER GLASNOW (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 6-4 (-0.5 Units) against TORONTO this season
7 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+3.8 Units)

TAIJUAN WALKER vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
WALKER is 0-0 when starting against TAMPA BAY with an ERA of 7.00 and a WHIP of 1.333.
His team's record is 1-1 (+0.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-0. (+2.0 units)

TYLER GLASNOW vs. TORONTO since 1997
GLASNOW is 0-2 when starting against TORONTO with an ERA of 6.17 and a WHIP of 1.457.
His team's record is 2-4 (-3.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-3. (-0.2 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHI WHITE SOX (35 - 25) at OAKLAND (36 - 24) - 3:00 PM
DALLAS KEUCHEL (L) vs. CHRIS BASSITT (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

DALLAS KEUCHEL vs. OAKLAND since 1997
KEUCHEL is 6-6 when starting against OAKLAND with an ERA of 3.06 and a WHIP of 1.182.
His team's record is 12-8 (+3.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 9-9. (-0.6 units)

CHRIS BASSITT vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
BASSITT is 2-1 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 3.04 and a WHIP of 1.226.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.4 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.9 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (31 - 29) at CHICAGO CUBS (34 - 26) - 2:00 PM
PABLO LOPEZ (R) vs. KYLE HENDRICKS (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 31-29 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MIAMI is 16-14 (+12.2 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MIAMI is 24-17 (+14.9 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1908-1936 (-278.3 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1025-898 (-150.2 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 959-948 (-168.3 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1420-1447 (-212.3 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 938-966 (-205.4 Units) against the money line after a win since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

PABLO LOPEZ vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
LOPEZ is 0-1 when starting against CHICAGO CUBS with an ERA of 3.60 and a WHIP of 1.200.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

KYLE HENDRICKS vs. MIAMI since 1997
HENDRICKS is 3-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 1.28 and a WHIP of 0.973.
His team's record is 5-2 (+2.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 5-2. (+3.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (30 - 28) at SAN DIEGO (37 - 23) - 5:00 PM
KWANG-HYUN KIM (L) vs. DINELSON LAMET (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 11-17 (-10.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ST LOUIS is 8-2 (+8.5 Units) against the money line on the road when the total is 7 or less this season.
ST LOUIS is 8-2 (+7.9 Units) against the money line in road games in day games this season.
ST LOUIS is 14-6 (+11.2 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
SAN DIEGO is 86-104 (-29.7 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

KWANG-HYUN KIM vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
No recent starts.

DINELSON LAMET vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
LAMET is 0-1 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 3.00 and a WHIP of 1.167.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.3 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (31 - 29) at ATLANTA (35 - 25) - 12:00 PM
TREVOR BAUER (R) vs. MAX FRIED (L)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 106-116 (-17.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 21-36 (-14.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 30-47 (-20.6 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 13-17 (-10.3 Units) against the money line after a win this season.
ATLANTA is 134-93 (+19.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 66-43 (+20.8 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 173-121 (+39.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 8-0 (+8.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
FRIED is 32-9 (+18.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 17-3 (+13.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 33-47 (-26.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TREVOR BAUER vs. ATLANTA since 1997
BAUER is 1-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 2-2 (-0.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-1. (+1.8 units)

MAX FRIED vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
FRIED is 1-0 when starting against CINCINNATI with an ERA of 1.50 and a WHIP of 0.667.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 0-1. (-1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MILWAUKEE (29 - 31) at LA DODGERS (43 - 17) - 10:00 PM
JOSH LINDBLOM (R) vs. WALKER BUEHLER (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MILWAUKEE is 52-27 (+20.9 Units) against the money line in September games over the last 3 seasons.
MILWAUKEE is 102-88 (+19.9 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
LA DODGERS are 192-205 (-67.7 Units) against the money line when playing on Wednesday since 1997.
LA DODGERS are 1018-852 (-92.4 Units) against the money line in night games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

JOSH LINDBLOM vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.

WALKER BUEHLER vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
BUEHLER is 0-2 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 2.89 and a WHIP of 0.911.
His team's record is 1-2 (-2.4 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 3-0. (+3.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 
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Armadillo's Write-Up


Wednesday, September 30


American League
Astros (1-0) @ Twins
Undecided starter


— Houston is 10-23 on the road this year; they’re 4-8 in last 12 road tilts.
— Astros are 8-8 in their last 16 games overall.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Under is 7-2-1 in their last ten games.


Berrios is 4-0, 2.14 in his last six starts.
— Twins are 6-5 in his starts, 3-2 at home.
— Under is 5-1-2 in his last eight starts.
— He is 2-3, 6.43 in five starts against Houston.
— Berrios is 0-1, 5.14 in two playoff games (1 start)


— Twins have now lost 17 straight playoff games, dating back to 2004.
— Minnesota is 24-8 at home this season.
— Twins won five of their last eight games overall.
— Minnesota is in playoffs for third time in four years; they haven’t made the ALCS since 2002.
— Over is 4-3-1 in their last eight games.


White Sox (1-0) @ A’s
Keuchel is 4-0, 1.59 in his last seven starts.
— White Sox are 7-4 in his starts, 4-2 on road.
— Under is 7-4 in his starts.
— Keuchel is 6-6, 3.06 in 22 games (20 starts) vs Oakland.
— Keuchel is 4-2, 3.47 in 12 playoff games (11 starts).


— Chicago is in playoffs for first time since 2008.
— White Sox is 2-6 in its last eight road games, but they won yesterday.
— Chicago lost eight of its last ten games overall.
— Four of last five White Sox games went over the total.


Bassitt allowed one run in 19.2 IP in winning his last three starts.
— Oakland is 7-3 in his starts, 4-1 at home.
— Under is 8-2 in his starts this year.
— Bassitt is 2-1, 3.04 in four starts vs Chicago.
— This is his first postseason start.


— A’s are in playoffs for third year in a row- they haven’t advanced in playoffs since 2006.
— Oakland lost six of its last nine games overall; their best player, 3B Chapman is out for the year.
— A’s are 22-11 at home this season.
— Oakland scored 15 runs total in its last six games.
— Under is 4-1-1 in their last six games.


Blue Jays @ Rays (1-0)
Ryu is 3-1, 2.70 in his last five starts; he is 0-0, 3.86 in two starts against the Rays this season.
— Toronto is 9-3 in his starts this year, 4-3 on the road.
— Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— Ryu is 0-0, 3.86 in two starts vs Tampa Bay
— 3-2, 4.05 in eight career playoff starts.


— Toronto is in the playoffs for first time since 2016.
— Blue Jays are used to being on the road; they played “home” games this year in Buffalo.
— Toronto is 15-20 on the road this season.
— Blue Jays won six of their last nine games overall.
— Over is 11-5 in their last 16 games.


Glasnow is 5-0, 2.97 in his last six starts.
— Rays are 9-2 in his starts this year, 4-1 at home.
— Over is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— Glasnow is 0-2, 6.17 in six starts vs Toronto.
— Glasnow is 0-2, 7.71 in two career playoff starts.


— Tampa Bay is in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Rays are 21-9 at home this season.
— Tampa Bay won 10 of its last 12 games overall.
— Under is 11-3 in Rays’ last 14 games.
— Rays are 7-4 vs Toronto this season, 5-3 in the Trop.


New York (1-0) @ Indians
Tanaka is 2-2, 4.81 in his last four starts.
— New York is 5-5 in his starts, 0-4 on the road— they scored total of three runs in his four road outings.
— His last three starts went over the total.
— Tanaka is 5-3, 1.76 in eight playoff starts.
— Tanaka is 2-2, 4.00 in six starts vs Cleveland.


— New York is in playoffs for 4th year in a row, 22nd time in 26 years
— New York 12-18 on the road this season.
— They lost six of their last nine games overall.
— Under is 3-2 in their last five games.


Carrasco is 1-1, 1.41 in his last five starts.
— Cleveland is 5-6 in his starts, 2-4 at home.
— Over is 6-3-2 in his starts this year.
— Carrasco is 5-5, 4.04 in 12 games vs New York (9 starts)
— Carrasco allowed two runs in 11 IP in two career playoff starts.


— Indians are in playoffs for 4th time in five years.
— Cleveland Is 18-13 at home this year.
— Indians are 9-3 in their last 12 games.
— Under is 4-3 in their last seven games.


National League
Cincinnati (31-29) @ Atlanta (35-25)
Bauer is 2-1, 1.24 in his last four starts
— Reds are 6-5 in his starts, 4-2 on the road.
— Under is 7-1 in his last eight starts.
— He is 1-0, 3.86 in four career starts vs Atlanta.
— Bauer is 1-4, 3.81 in 10 playoff games (6 starts).


— Reds went 11-3 down stretch to make the playoffs.
— Cincy is in playoffs for first time since 2013.
— Reds are 15-16 on the road this year, going 5-3 in last eight road tilts.
— Cincy is 7-6 vs lefty starters.
— Over is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.


Fried is 4-0, 2.70 in his last six starts.
— Braves are 10-1 in his starts, 5-1 at home.
— His last three starts went over the total.
— Fried is 1-1, 5.14 in three games vs Cincinnati (one start).
— This is his first playoff start; he’s allowed five runs in 6.1 IP in eight relief stints the last two postseasons.


— Braves went 7-6 in last 13 games, 1-3 in last four.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Atlanta is 19-11 at home this season.
— Five of their last six games went over the total.


Miami @ Chicago
Alcantara is 3-2, 4.93 in six starts this year, 2-0, 2.13 on the road.
— Marlins are 4-2 when he starts, winning both road outings.
— Over is 3-3 in his starts this year.
— Alcantara is 0-1, 5.68 in four games (2 starts) vs Chicago.
— This is his first playoff appearance.


— Miami went 8-8 in its last 16 games, winning three of last four.
— Marlins are in playoffs for first time since
— Miami went 20-14 on the road (11-15 at home).
— Over is 8-4 in their last dozen games.


Hendricks is 3-1, 1.45 in his last five starts,
— Cubs are 7-5 in his starts, 4-2 at home.
— His last four starts stayed under the total.
— Hendricks is 3-1, 1.28 in seven career starts vs Miami.
— He is 2-3, 2.98 in 11 playoff games (10 starts).


— Cubs lost six of their last nine games.
— Chicago is 19-14 at home this season.
— Cubs are in playoffs for fifth time in six years; they won World Series in 2016.
— Under is 7-4 in their last 11 games, 0-3 in last three.


St Louis @ San Diego
32-year old Korean rookie Kim is 3-0, 1.85 in seven starts this year.
— St Louis is 5-2 in his starts, 3-1 on the road.
— Under is 4-3 in his starts.
— He’s never pitched against San Diego, or in the playoffs.


— Cardinals went 8-4 down stretch to make the playoffs.
— St Louis is in playoffs for 8th time in 12 years, 2nd time in last five.
— Cardinals are 16-15 on the road this season.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine games.


Paddack is 2-2, 4.94 in his last five starts.
— San Diego’s #1-2 starters are both hurt; they’re 6-6 in Paddack’s starts, 5-2 at home.
— Paddack is 1-0, 2.93 in two starts vs St Louis (9.2 IP)
— Over is 9-3 in his starts this year.
— This is his first postseason start.


— San Diego won its last three games, and 13 of last 19.
— Padres are in playoffs for first time since 2006.
— San Diego is 10-10 vs lefty starters (27-13 vs RHP)
— Under is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.


Milwaukee @ Los Angeles
Undecided starter


— Milwaukee got in despite going 3-5 in its last eight games.
— Brewers are 14-17 on the road this season.
— Milwaukee is in playoffs for third year in a row.
— Over is 12-4 in their last 16 games.


Buehler is 1-0, 4.42 in eight starts this year.
— Dodgers are 7-1 in his starts, 4-0 at home.
— Under is 5-3 in Buehler starts.
— Buehler allowed one run in seven IP in his one start vs Milwaukee.
— He is 1-1, 2.72 in six career postseason starts.


— Dodgers went 43-17 this year, winning their last four games.
— LA is 21-9 in Chavez Ravine this season.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for 8th year in a row; their last World Series title was 1988.
— Three of their last four games went over.
 
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MLB

Wednesday, September 30

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Cincinnati @ Atlanta
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games at home


Houston @ Minnesota
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Houston's last 13 games
Houston is 15-7 ATS in its last 22 games when playing Minnesota
Minnesota
Minnesota is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
Minnesota is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Houston


Miami @ Chi Cubs
Miami
Miami is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Miami's last 9 games when playing on the road against Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing Miami
Chi Cubs is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Miami


Chi White Sox @ Oakland
Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Chi White Sox's last 5 games
Oakland
Oakland is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
Oakland is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox


Toronto @ Tampa Bay
Toronto
Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Toronto is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Tampa Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games


St. Louis @ San Diego
St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
St. Louis is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games on the road
San Diego
San Diego is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
San Diego is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis


NY Yankees @ Cleveland
NY Yankees
The total has gone OVER in 5 of NY Yankees's last 6 games when playing Cleveland
The total has gone OVER in 9 of NY Yankees's last 13 games
Cleveland
Cleveland is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Cleveland is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing NY Yankees


Milwaukee @ LA Dodgers
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Milwaukee's last 7 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
 
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NL Wild Card Cheat Sheet
Kevin Rogers


The 60-game Major League Baseball season flew by and what remains are 16 teams playing for the World Series. This year's postseason is unique from several standpoints as the most teams ever will participate for the crown, while the final three rounds will be played at neutral sites.


The opening round involves a best-of-three series with the higher seed as the host. The three division champions in each league are the top three seeds, while the next three seeds are the second-place finishers from each division.


The final two teams to qualify for the playoffs in each league are the Wild Card teams, as Milwaukee is the only returning Wild Card squad from 2019, although the Brewers owned a losing record this season.




National League


#1 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. #8 Milwaukee Brewers


LAD: 43-17 SU, 21-9 Home, 27-26-7 O/U
MIL: 29-31 SU, 14-16 Road, 25-30-5 O/U


Series Price


Los Angeles -340
Milwaukee +280


Series Schedule


Game 1 - Wednesday, Sept. 30 - 10 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 2 - Thursday, Oct. 1 - TBD
Game 3 - Friday, Oct. 2 - (If Necessary)


Is this the season the Dodgers finally break through and win the franchise's first World Series title since 1988? Los Angeles wrapped up its eighth straight NL West title, while looking for its third World Series appearance in the last four years. The Dodgers finished with the most runs in baseball this season (349) and the lowest ERA (3.02), while their .717 winning percentage (granted shortened season) was higher than the 2001 Mariners' squad that finished with the most wins ever (116).


The Brewers lost their season finale to the Cardinals, but thanks to the Giants and Phillies also losing on Sunday, Milwaukee is back in the postseason for the third straight season. In 2018, the Brewers hooked up with the Dodgers in the National League Championship Series and ultimately fell to Los Angeles in seven games.


Milwaukee went 11-12 on the road against playoff clubs this season, while Los Angeles played only nine home games against postseason teams, going 5-4.




#2 Atlanta Braves vs. #7 Cincinnati Reds


ATL: 35-25 SU, 19-11 Home, 32-23-5 O/U
CIN: 31-29 SU, 15-15 Road, 26-32-2 O/U


Series Price


Atlanta -140
Cincinnati +120


Series Schedule


Game 1 - Wednesday, Sept. 30 - 12 p.m. ET (ESPN)
Game 2 - Thursday, Oct. 1 - TBD
Game 3 - Friday, Oct. 2 - (If Necessary)


The Braves wrapped up their third consecutive NL East crown, but Atlanta failed to escape the Divisional Round in 2018 and 2019. It will be another tough go as Atlanta battles Cincinnati, while the Braves try to win their first playoff series since 2001.

Cincinnati showcases its strong three-headed monster atop its pitching rotation with Trevor Bauer, Luis Castillo, and Sonny Gray. Bauer finished 5-4 on the season, but compiled a 1.73 ERA, which ranked tops in the National League. The Reds went 10-12 on the road against playoff teams in 2020, but closed the season going 6-1 in their final series openers.


Atlanta actually performed better at home against playoff teams (10-4) than non-playoff squads (9-7), as the Braves went a perfect 4-0 at home against the Rays and Yankees.




#3 Chicago Cubs vs. #6 Miami Marlins


CHC: 34-26 SU, 17-13 Home, 29-30-1 O/U
MIA: 31-29 SU, 16-14 Road, 32-27-1 O/U


Series Price


Chicago -240
Miami +200


Series Schedule


Game 1 - Wednesday, Sept. 30 - 2 p.m. ET (ABC)
Game 2 - Thursday, Oct. 1 - TBD
Game 3 - Friday, Oct. 2 - (If Necessary)


The Marlins seemed like they had no shot at the playoffs prior to the season, while COVID-19 related issues sidelined Miami the first week. However, the Fish started at 7-1 and remained in playoff contention for the entire 60-game campaign for their first postseason appearance since 2003, when they captured their second World Series title.


On the way to that championship, the Marlins rallied past the Cubs in seven games of the National League Championship Series. Chicago looks for its long-term revenge after 17 years as the Cubs are back in the playoffs for the fifth time in six seasons. Yu Darvish is in the running for the NL Cy Young award as the Cubs' right-hander was tied for the league lead in victories with eight and finished second in the NL in ERA.


Miami held its own against playoff teams on the road this season at 7-8, capped off by a series victory over the Yankees this past weekend in the Bronx. The Cubs played 43 of its 60 games against playoff squads this season and racked up a 24-19 mark.




#4 San Diego Padres vs. #5 St. Louis Cardinals


SD: 37-23 SU, 17-13 Road, 28-30-2 O/U
STL: 30-28 SU, 15-13 Away, 24-29-5 O/U


Series Price


San Diego -240
St. Louis +200


Series Schedule


Game 1 - Wednesday, Sept. 30 - 5 p.m. ET (ESPN2)
Game 2 - Thursday, Oct. 1 - TBD
Game 3 - Friday, Oct. 2 - (If Necessary)


In spite of being listed as the fourth seed, the Padres posted the second-best record in the National League this season. San Diego started this shortened season at 11-13, but caught fire and pulled off a remarkable 26-13 mark the rest of the way, including a 13-6 record at Petco Park.


The Cardinals were forced to miss nearly three weeks due to a COVID-19 outbreak early in the season, but found a way to make up nearly all of their postponed games for the exception of two. St. Louis took care of business on Sunday by beating Milwaukee to finish in second place of the NL Central and avoid playing an extra game or two at Detroit if necessary.


The Redbirds alternated wins and losses down the stretch in their final nine games, while going 20-21 against playoff teams. The Padres are making their first postseason appearance since 2006, when they also faced the Cardinals that season and ended up losing to St. Louis in four games of the NLDS.
 
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WEDNESDAY, SEPTEMBER 30


GAME TIME(ET) PICK UNITS

CIN at ATL 12:08 PM
CIN +100
U 7.5
+500 +500


HOU at MIN 01:08 PM
HOU +140
U 8.5
+500 +500


MIA at CHC 02:08 PM
MIA +140
U 8.5
+500 +500


CHW at OAK 03:10 PM
OAK -125
U 7.5
+500 +500


TOR at TB 04:07 PM
TB -140
U 7.0
+500 +500


STL at SD 05:08 PM
SD -170
U 8.5
+500 +500


NYY at CLE 07:08 PM
CLE +105
O 8.0
+500 +500


MIL at LAD 10:08 PM
MIL +200
U 8.0
+500 +500
 
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RECORD THRU THE WORLS SERIES:




DATE W-L-T % UNITS RECORD


09/30/2020 9-7-0 56.25% +900 Detail


09/29/2020 2-6-0 25.00% -2525 Detail


TOTALS..........11-13-0.......45.83.......-1625
 
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SIZE=1]And as for the final sphere of love and friendship, I can only say it gets harder once the natural communities of college and hometown are gone...It takes work and commitment, demands toleration for human frailties, forgiveness for the inevitable disappointment and betrayals that come even with the best of relationships.






Armadillo: Thursday's six-pack


Six interesting spreads for Week 4 college games:
— Memphis (-2.5) @ SMU
— Navy (-7) @ Air Force
— Texas Tech @ Kansas State (-2.5)
— TCU @ Texas (-11.5)
— Ole Miss @ Kentucky (-6.5)
— Auburn @ Georgia (-6.5)


Americans who have died from COVID-19: 205,268
Please wear a mask when you go out.




**********


Armadillo: Thursday's Den: Doing some thinking out loud……


13) Sunday’s Steeler-Titans game was postponed from Sunday to either Monday or Tuesday; another Tennessee player tested positive.


Minnesota Vikings will be back in their facility Thursday; their game with Houston Sunday still appears to be a go.


12) Braves 1, Reds 0 (14) (Atlanta leads, 1-0):
— They’re not using the gimmicky man-on-2nd rule in extra innings in the playoffs.
— This was the first 0-0, extra inning playoff game since Game 6 of the 1997 ALCS between Cleveland-Baltimore.
— Freddie Freeman walked it off with a 14th-inning single.
— Cincinnati left 13 men on base, was 1-12 with RISP.


11) Pardon me for this rant, but I despise it when ESPN mikes players and talks to them while they’re in the field, 1,000 times moreso during a playoff game. Players need to concentrate; lot of the questions that are asked are mindless/inane, anyway.


If you want to talk to players, talk to them when they’re in the dugout, not on the field.


10) Astros 3, Twins 1 (Houston wins 2-0):
— Astros went 29-31 in regular season, but they advance here.
— Minnesota got only three hits; they’ve now lost 18 playoff games in a row.
— Rookie Cristian Javier tossed three scoreless innings in relief.


9) A’s 5, White Sox 3 (series 1-1):
— Oakland scored twice in first inning; Dallas Keuchel was one of only two MLB starters this season that didn’t allow a first-inning run (Dinelson Lamet was the other)
— A’s led 5-0 in 8th, then hung on for dear life. Closer Hendriks got five outs, but left with bases loaded in 9th inning- Jake Diekman retired Jose Abreu to end the game.
— Deciding Game 3 is this afternoon in Oakland.


8) One thing about social media, in this case I mean Twitter; lot of fickle people. Everyone who loses should be fired, everyone who wins is the greatest, at least until they lose again.


7) Lakers 116, Miami 98 (LA leads 1-0):
— Game was 64-48 at halftime, and got worse from there.
— LA was +18 on boards (54-36)
— Anthony Davis scored 34 points in 38:00.


6) Dodgers 4, Milwaukee 2 (LA leads 1-0)
— Milwaukee starter Suter walked five batters in 31.2 IP this year; he walked five batters in 1.2 IP here in a dismal performance. His first five batters? A double and four walks.
— In their 60 regular season games, Dodgers used 56 different lineups.


5) Tampa Bay 8, Toronto 2:
— Rays scored six runs in 2nd inning, chasing Jays’ ace Hyun-Jin Ryu
— Hunter Renfroe hit a grand slam for Tampa Bay.
— Rays advance to play division rival New York in next round.


4) St Louis 7, San Diego 4 (Cardinals lead 1-0)
— Padres are in a tough spot, with their #1-2 starters both injured.
— Cardinals scored four runs in 1st, led 6-3 after three innings.
— Rookie Dylan Carlson batted cleanup, got on base four times, scored twice.


3) Congrats to the Tampa Bay Lightning, who earlier this week won the Stanley Cup for the second time. Congrats to the NHL for executing their playoffs in two bubbles (Toronto/Edmonton) and doing it safely.


2) I really dislike the NFL’s 10:00 overtime rule: the team that kicks off is only going to get the ball once. Why not let teams play a full quarter? If you’re only going to play a 10:00 OT, why have overtime at all and have more tie games?


1) New York 10, Cleveland 9 (New York wins series 2-0)
— Indians scored four runs in 1st, then trailed 6-4/8-6, led 9-8.
— New York scored twice in ninth inning for the win.
— Cleveland pitchers issued 12 walks; hard to win that way.
— New York advances to face Tampa Bay in the next round.[/SIZE]
 
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MLB public betting, line movement for October 1
Patrick Everson


Javier Baez and the Cubs are in a must-win situation for Thursday's Game 2 of their best-of-3 series against the Marlins. Caesars pegged host Chicago a -185 favorite, with Miami +170.


MLB betting odds are up for a slimmed-down Thursday wild-card playoffs schedule of five games, after three teams advanced to the divisional round with Wednesday wins. The Chicago Cubs are in an elimination game against the Miami Marlins, while Clayton Kershaw and the Los Angeles Dodgers aim to quickly finish off the Milwaukee Brewers.


Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s games.


MLB line movement


Chicago stubbed its toe in a 5-1 Game 1 loss to Miami, and the host Cubs now must win Game 2, with first pitch at 2:08 p.m. ET. Caesars books opened Yu Darvish and Chicago at -185, with Miami +170, and there was no line movement through Wednesday night.


Kershaw looks to lead the Dodgers into the divisional round in Game 2 against the Brewers, after L.A. posted a 4-2 victory in Game 1. Most books didn’t post the Game 2 line Wednesday night, so check back Thursday for this 10:08 p.m. ET contest.


Oakland notched a 5-3 Game 2 victory over Chicago Wednesday to force Game 3 at 3:10 p.m. ET. Neither team set its starting pitcher for the clincher, so sportsbooks held off on posting the opening line Wednesday night.


MLB public betting


The Consensus, often indicative of the public’s stance, had the Cubs landing 77 percent of picks against the Marlins through Wednesday night. The San Diego Padres, also facing elimination, were drawing 63 percent of early Consensus picks for Game 2 against the St. Louis Cardinals. First pitch is at 5:08 p.m. ET.


In Thursday’s opener, at 12:08 p.m. ET, 64 percent of Consensus picks were on the host Atlanta Braves against the Cincinnati Reds. The Braves outlasted the Reds 1-0 in 13 innings in Wednesday’s Game 1.
 
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955MILWAUKEE -956 LA DODGERS
MILWAUKEE is 19-32 SU (-14.9 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.


957CINCINNATI -958 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 10-3 SU (6.7 Units) in day games in the current season.


963CHI WHITE SOX -964 OAKLAND
CHI WHITE SOX is 21-6 SU (15.8 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.


967ST LOUIS -968 SAN DIEGO
ST LOUIS are 21-26 SU (-16.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.


981MIAMI -982 CHICAGO CUBS
MIAMI is 13-2 SU (10.6 Units) in road games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.








MLB
Armadillo's Write-Up


Thursday, October 1


Best-of-3 series


American League
White Sox @ A’s (series 1-1)
Cease is 1-1, 4.58 in his last four starts; he is 3-3, 5.67 in seven road starts.
— White Sox are 6-5 in his starts, 3-4 on the road.
— Over is 5-3 in his last eight starts.
— Cease has never faced Oakland, or pitched in the playoffs.


— Chicago is in playoffs for first time since 2008.
— White Sox is 2-7 in its last nine road games.
— Chicago lost nine of its last 11 games overall.
— Five of last six White Sox games went over the total.


Fiers is 2-2, 4.09 in his last four starts; he is 2-1, 4.15 in four home starts.
— Oakland is 8-3 in his starts, 3-1 at home.
— Five of his last six starts stayed under.
— Fiers allowed one run in one IP in his only playoff appearance, in 2015 for Houston.
— He is 4-0, 1.58 in eight career starts vs Chicago.


A’s could start Manaea here, but Chicago is 15-0 vs lefty starters, so if they start Manaea, I may have a nervous breakdown and you’ll never see me again ��


— Closer Hendriks threw 49 pitches, is likely out for this game.
— Oakland lost six of its last ten games overall; their best player, 3B Chapman is out for the year.
— A’s are 23-11 at home this season.
— Oakland scored 20 runs total in its last seven games.
— Under is 4-2-1 in their last seven games.
— A’s are in playoffs for third year in a row- they haven’t advanced in playoffs since 2006.


National League
Cincinnati @ Atlanta (1-0)
Castillo is 3-0, 1.23 in his last three starts; he is 2-4, 4.33 on the road.
— Reds are 4-6 in his starts, 2-4 on foreign soil.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Castillo is 1-1, 3.86 in three starts vs Atlanta.
— This is his first career playoff start.


— Reds are 11-4 in their last fifteen games.
— Reds left 13 men on base yesterday, went 1-12 with RISP.
— Cincy is in playoffs for first time since 2013.
— Reds are 15-17 on the road this year, going 5-4 in last nine road tilts.
— Over is 4-3-1 in their last eight games.


Rookie Anderson is 3-2, 2.78 in his first six MLB starts.
— Braves are 3-3 in his starts, 1-2 at home.
— Under is 3-1-2 in his six starts.
— He’s never faced the Reds, or pitched in the playoffs.


— Braves went 8-6 in last 14 games, splitting last six.
— Braves left nine men on base yesterday, were 1-10 with RISP.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Atlanta is 20-11 at home this season.
— Five of their last seven games went over the total.


Miami (1-0) @ Chicago
Rookie Sanchez is 3-2, 3.46 in his first seven MLB starts.
— Marlins are 3-4 in his starts, 2-1 on the road.
— Under is 5-2 in his starts.
— He’s never faced Chicago; this is his first playoff appearance.


— Miami is 9-8 in its last 17 games, winning four of last five.
— Marlins are in playoffs for first time since 2003.
— Miami is 21-14 on the road (11-15 at home).
— Over is 8-5 in their last thirteen games.


Darvish is 0-2, 4.74 in his last three starts; he is 5-3, 2.73 in nine home starts.
— Cubs are 8-3 in his starts, 6-3 at home.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Darvish is 2-4, 5.81 in six playoff starts.
— He is 2-1, 6.06 in five career starts vs Miami.


— Chicago had only four hits in yesterday’s 5-1 loss.
— Cubs lost seven of their last ten games overall.
— Chicago is 19-15 at home this season.
— Cubs are in playoffs for fifth time in six years; they won World Series in 2016.
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 games.


St Louis (1-0) @ San Diego
Wainwright is 2-2, 3.60 in his last four starts; he is 3-1, 3.00 on the road.
— St Louis is 6-3 in his starts, 3-1 on the road.
— Over is 3-3-3 in his starts this year.
— Wainwright is 7-4, 2.19 in 15 games (12 starts) vs San Diego.
— He is 4-5, 2.81 in 27 career playoff games (14 starts).


— Cardinals are 9-4 in they roast thirteen games.
— St Louis is in playoffs for 8th time in 12 years, 2nd time in last five.
— Cardinals are 17-15 on the road this season.
— Under is 7-3 in their last ten games.


Davies is 2-2, 3.24 in his last four starts; he is 3-2, 3.13 at home.
— San Diego is 7-4 in his starts, 3-2 at home.
— Davies’ last four starts stayed under the total.
— He is 2-3, 4.55 in 10 starts vs St Louis.
— Davies threw one scoreless inning for Milwaukee in ’18 playoffs.


— San Diego lost yesterday; they’re 13-7 in their last 20 games.
— Padres are in playoffs for first time since 2006.
— San Diego is 27-13 vs right-handed starters.
— Under is 5-4-1 in their last ten games.


Milwaukee @ Los Angeles (1-0)
Woodruff is 1-1, 1.32 in his last two starts.
— Milwaukee is 6-7 in his starts, 3-3 at home.
— Under is 10-2-1 in his starts this year.
— Woodruff has allowed eight runs in 9.2 IP in two games (1 start) vs LA.
— He is 1-1, 1.65 in five playoff games (2 starts).


— Milwaukee is 3-6 in its last nine games.
— Brewers are 14-18 on the road this season.
— Milwaukee is in playoffs for third year in a row.
— Over is 12-5 in their last 17 games.


Kershaw is 4-1, 2.35 in his last six starts; he is 1-1, 3.48 at home.
— Dodgers are 6-2 in his starts, 1-1 at home.
— Over is 4-4 in his starts this year.
— Kershaw is 9-11, 4.43 in 32 playoff games (25 starts)
— He is 6-5, 2.87 in 15 starts vs Milwaukee.


— Dodgers are 44-17 this year, winning their last five games.
— LA is 22-9 in Chavez Ravine this season.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for 8th year in a row; their last World Series title was 1988.
— Three of their last five games went over.








MLB

Thursday, October 1

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Cincinnati @ Atlanta
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati


Miami @ Chi Cubs
Miami
Miami is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Chi Cubs
Chi Cubs is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games when playing Miami
Chi Cubs is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Miami


Chi White Sox @ Oakland
Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Chi White Sox's last 6 games
Oakland
Oakland is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Chi White Sox
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing Chi White Sox


St. Louis @ San Diego
St. Louis
St. Louis is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 10 games
San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
San Diego is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games at home


Milwaukee @ LA Dodgers
Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Milwaukee's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 8 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
 
CNOTES

CNOTES

Active member
Joined
Sep 26, 2005
Messages
104,150
Tokens
MLB
Dunkel


Friday, October 2

Cincinnati @ Atlanta


Game 957-958
October 1, 2020 @ 12:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Cincinnati
(Castillo) 16.058
Atlanta
(Anderson) 17.593
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Atlanta
by 1 1/2
8
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Atlanta
-135
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Atlanta
(-135); Over


Miami @ Chicago Cubs


Game 969-970
October 1, 2020 @ 2:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Miami
(Sanchez) 15.203
Chicago Cubs
(Darvish) 16.776
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Chicago Cubs
by 1 1/2
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Chicago Cubs
-180
7
Dunkel Pick:
Chicago Cubs
(-180); Under


Chicago White Sox @ Oakland


Game 963-964
October 1, 2020 @ 3:10 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Chicago White Sox
(TBD) 13.655
Oakland
(TBD) 15.147
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Oakland
by 1 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Oakland
No Line
N/A
Dunkel Pick:
Oakland
N/A


St. Louis @ San Diego


Game 967-968
October 1, 2020 @ 7:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
St. Louis
(Wainwrght) 16.420
San Diego
(Davies) 15.092
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
St. Louis
by 1 1/2
10
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
San Diego
-160
8 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
St. Louis
(+140); Over


Milwaukee @ LA Dodgers


Game 955-956
October 1, 2020 @ 10:08 pm


Dunkel Rating:
Milwaukee
(Woodruff) 13.911
LA Dodgers
(Kershaw) 18.179
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 4
6
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-220
7 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-220); Under








MLB
Long Sheet


Friday, October 2


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


MILWAUKEE (29 - 31) at LA DODGERS (43 - 17) - 10:08 PM
BRANDON WOODRUFF (R) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA DODGERS is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against MILWAUKEE this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

BRANDON WOODRUFF vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
WOODRUFF is 0-0 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 7.94 and a WHIP of 1.764.
His team's record is 0-1 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. MILWAUKEE since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-6 when starting against MILWAUKEE with an ERA of 3.02 and a WHIP of 1.044.
His team's record is 10-7 (-2.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-8. (-1.8 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (31 - 29) at ATLANTA (35 - 25) - 12:08 PM
LUIS CASTILLO (R) vs. IAN ANDERSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 106-117 (-18.4 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 21-36 (-14.8 Units) against the money line on the road when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 30-48 (-21.6 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons.
CASTILLO is 5-11 (-11.0 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
ATLANTA is 135-93 (+20.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 41-18 (+13.9 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -125 to -175 over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 67-43 (+21.8 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 174-121 (+40.2 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 9-0 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
ATLANTA is 48-62 (-31.6 Units) against the money line in October games since 1997.
ATLANTA is 34-47 (-25.8 Units) against the money line in playoff games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 (+1.0 Units) against CINCINNATI this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

LUIS CASTILLO vs. ATLANTA since 1997
CASTILLO is 1-1 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 3.86 and a WHIP of 1.500.
His team's record is 2-1 (+1.3 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-2. (-1.3 units)

IAN ANDERSON vs. CINCINNATI since 1997
No recent starts.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHI WHITE SOX (36 - 25) at OAKLAND (36 - 25) - 3:10 PM
DANE DUNNING (R) vs. SEAN MANAEA (L)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-1 (+0.0 Units) against CHI WHITE SOX this season
1 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+0.0 Units)

DANE DUNNING vs. OAKLAND since 1997
No recent starts.

SEAN MANAEA vs. CHI WHITE SOX since 1997
MANAEA is 1-0 when starting against CHI WHITE SOX with an ERA of 1.29 and a WHIP of 0.714.
His team's record is 1-0 (+1.0 units) in these starts. The OVER is 1-0. (+1.0 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ST LOUIS (30 - 28) at SAN DIEGO (37 - 23) - 5:08 PM
ADAM WAINWRIGHT (R) vs. ZACH DAVIES (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 9-2 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in road games in day games this season.
ST LOUIS is 15-6 (+12.7 Units) against the money line in road games against right-handed starters this season.
WAINWRIGHT is 213-127 (+47.2 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 70-37 (+21.8 Units) against the money line when the total is 8 to 8.5 since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 102-62 (+33.6 Units) against the money line in road games since 1997. (Team's Record)
WAINWRIGHT is 12-4 (+9.4 Units) against the money line in day games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
SAN DIEGO is 107-116 (-19.0 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 86-105 (-31.3 Units) against the money line in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 40-57 (-23.2 Units) against the money line at home when the total is 8 to 8.5 over the last 3 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 39-45 (-17.1 Units) against the money line in home games against right-handed starters over the last 2 seasons.
SAN DIEGO is 52-64 (-16.9 Units) against the money line after a loss over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 (+1.5 Units) against SAN DIEGO this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+1.0 Units)

ADAM WAINWRIGHT vs. SAN DIEGO since 1997
WAINWRIGHT is 7-4 when starting against SAN DIEGO with an ERA of 2.03 and a WHIP of 1.092.
His team's record is 8-4 (+2.9 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 7-5. (+1.0 units)

ZACH DAVIES vs. ST LOUIS since 1997
DAVIES is 2-3 when starting against ST LOUIS with an ERA of 4.55 and a WHIP of 1.326.
His team's record is 5-5 (+1.9 units) in these starts. The OVER is 5-5. (-0.4 units)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MIAMI (31 - 29) at CHICAGO CUBS (34 - 26) - 2:08 PM
SIXTO SANCHEZ (R) vs. YU DARVISH (R)
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 32-29 (+13.7 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
MIAMI is 17-14 (+13.8 Units) against the money line in road games this season.
MIAMI is 25-17 (+16.5 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters this season.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1908-1937 (-279.9 Units) against the money line in all games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1025-899 (-151.9 Units) against the money line in home games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 18-28 (-22.2 Units) against the money line in home games in October games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 959-949 (-170.0 Units) against the money line in day games since 1997.
CHICAGO CUBS are 1420-1448 (-214.0 Units) against the money line against right-handed starters since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 (+1.6 Units) against CHICAGO CUBS this season
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+1.0 Units)

SIXTO SANCHEZ vs. CHICAGO CUBS since 1997
No recent starts.

YU DARVISH vs. MIAMI since 1997
DARVISH is 2-1 when starting against MIAMI with an ERA of 6.07 and a WHIP of 1.575.
His team's record is 4-1 (+1.7 units) in these starts. The OVER is 3-2. (+1.0 units)
 
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