Sunday Service Play Thread 10/11/2020

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HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 11 2020 4:25PM
474 CLE 3.0(-120) Bookmaker vs 473 IND double-dime bet

Analysis: The market LOVES Indy, but this line is out of wack IMO.


Nick Chubb is likely out for the Browns, but they have a more then capable backup in Kareem Hunt. The underrated injury that nobody seems to be talking about is Darius Leonard for the Colts. I would guess that Leonard misses the game this week.


The Colts closed -3.5 at Chicago, a clearly inferior team to the Browns. The Colts deserve a slight upgrade for that win, but the Browns deserve an upgrade off their dominating win against Dallas as well.


I make this game Cleveland +1. Take the line value!
 

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Thanks Yankees5560
Got his other two

Hitman
Browns/indy under 47.5
Arizona -6.5
 

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FEZZIK | NFL TOTAL SUN, 10/11/20 - 4:25 PM
474 CLE / 473 IND Under 47.5 Southpoint

triple-dime bet

Analysis:

Indy is a GREAT under team with an elite D, and an average O


Clev has a slightly above av O and D.

With Indy D having the key edge, LOVE under here.


I attached some notes I have from last week:




KEY GAMES:


Clev 49 DAL 38

Clev runs for 40/307 despite Chubb injured 1st half!


Dallas D is a MESS giving up 7 yards/play despite Clev running the majority of time…40 of 73 plays



Clev got Bechkam involved early with trick plays

Landry TD pass to him

Reverse to him 1st half (and end of gm)

Dal -3 T/0, 2 turnovers back to back 2Q got Clev a 14 point lead

Clev covers 2nd half +7 by 1 with a miracle 2 points on a blocked Xtra point they somehow recover and run in………



Dak: 41/58 502 8.7 4/1 QBR 76

Mayfield: 19/30 165 5.5 2/0 QBR 61

I upgraded Clev by 1 lowered Dallas by 1







Indy 19 CHIC 11

Indy completely shut down Chic offense, it was 19-3 LATE

Indy 290 yards (4.2) Chic 269 ( 4.6)

Chic struggled despite no MLB Darius Leonard 2h

Chic 90 yard drive vs. prevent D in final 4 mins, made stats

better

Foles: 26/42/241 5.9 1/1 QBR 42

Rivers: 16/29/186 6.6 1/0 QBR 82

Chic O struggled all day despite Indy MLB Darius Leonard OUT 2nd half

Chic garbage yards late

3-19 Chic trailed and got 90 yards on last drive

And Chic got a bail out PI call on a long pass on 4th down on the drive before



I upgraded Indy ½ a point, lowered Chic by 1 point









Buf 30 Oak 23

Stats were even:

BUf 336 (5.7) LV 383 (5.6)

Buf wins T/os 0-2

Allen continues to shine: 4th straight gm ABOVE his 266 prior high

Allen 24/34 288 8.5 2/0 QBR 92

Carr 32/44 311 7.1 2/0 QBR 90

Carr solid despite missing top 2 WRS

WRs: Renfrow 5/57, Agholor 4/44

Buf D continues to WAY underperform:

Raiders 383 yards, 5.6/play despite down both starting WRs

YTD: Buf D giving up: 5.9 (21st in league)

2019: BUF D gave up: 4.9 (4th)

Raiders: 2 turnovers do them iõn 2nd half:

Waller, then Carr both fumbled on drives

Kept the Raiders down 14……..



I upgraded Buf by ½ a point





Philly 25 SF 20

SF (Mullens) really gave away this game:

Philly O held in check….

Philly: 267 yards (4.5) SF 417 yards (6.0)

T/o: Phi 1 SF 3

Wentz was down All his WRS (Jackson, Reagor, Jeffery)

And Oline already with 3 injuries, had Lane Johnson going in/out

Wentz: 18/28 193 6.9 1/1 sacked 3x, QBR 74

Mullens: 18/26 200 7.7 1/2 Sacked 4x, QBR 13

Key mistakes: Up 8-7 end 2Q throws Interception

UP 14-11, 10 min left, FUMBLES on a sack, Philly gets a 42 yard TD drive

ON THE PLAY before Mullens missed a WIDE OPEN pass to the 50 to Kendrick Bourne…..

Down 14-18, throws a pick 6 next drive…..

Beathard: 14/19 138 7.3, 0/0 Sacked 1x, QBR 74

No change to Philly ratings; I felt this was all on Mullens





Ne 10 KC 26

KC was fortunate to cover the game. NE won the yardage 357 to 323. KC DID win ypp 5.9 to 4.8

The key to the game was KC +3 in T/o Margin (4 to 1)


NE did have some success on offense despite being down 2 OLINEMAN during game (RG Mason, and RT Eleunmonor left early in gm, Migraine)

Hoyer played poorly, and made bad mistakes, including taking a sack at the end of the 1st half when he thought the team still had a time out (cost the Pats 3 points).

Edelman dropped a pass that turned into a pick 6

THAT one play changed the score from a 19-10 final to a 26-10 final.



Mahomes (held in check); 236 yards 2TD/0 int, 8.1, QBR 60

Hoyer: 130 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, QBR 39

Stidham: 60 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, QBR 42



I made no changes to the teams Ratings







ATl 16/GB 30

Packers: BIGGEST HFA in NFL THIS Year? Slick grass surface

Defeated Det 42-21 only home game

And now won by 14 vs. Atl

GB: REALLY HURTING AT WR

Didn’t matter, Rodgers just threw to others, his backup Tight End had a huge game with 3 Tds.

Adams OUT – Worth 1 point (192 yards)

Lazard OUT- IR- Went for almost 150 yards last week (254 yards ytd)

Julio Jones ATL DID miss 2nd half, hamstring.

Atl showed ZERO sense of urgency, down 18 in 2nd half they had over a 7 min drive, often with the play clock hitting 5 or below!

Many expected 0-3 Atl to show a great sense of urgency but it was lacking completely.

HUGE money against GB here….line dropped from 7 midweek all the way down to 5……..last year we saw many “curious” line moves against the Packers at home similar to this….and for the most part the bettors have lost fading GB………

Aaron Rodger resurgence, what is causing it, Jordan Love?

I upgraded GB by .5, lowered Atl by .5




Pick Made: Oct 6 2020 8:17AM PST
 

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Mike Tierney

CINCINNATI +13
INDIANAPOLIS -1.5
UNDER 54 N.Y. GIANTS @ DALLAS
L.A. RAMS -7
 

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Larry Hartstein

CINCINNATI +13.5
NEW ORLEANS -7.5
N.Y. GIANTS +9.5
PITTSBURGH -7
HOUSTON -6
LAS VEGAS +13
 

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Hank Goldberg

CLEVELAND +1.5
PITTSBURGH -7
HOUSTON -6
CINCINNATI +13
 

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