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Thread: 989Sports 2020-2021 NFL Thread

  1. #1 989Sports 2020-2021 NFL Thread 
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    Bio:

    Been a member of RX for a long time (10+ years) as a lurker. Decided about 12 years ago that setting up customized programs for statistics related to sports could yield successful results in the handicapping realm, so I set about attempting to build my own logic streams rooted in both short and long-term statistical patterns. My results were, admittedly, not good at first, but I feel like I am at a point now where I have been able to stabilize the results and say that my systems are profitable long-term. Now that I feel comfortable with my programming logic, I wanted to give back to the RX community by providing you with picks that are generated from my systems. To answer your question ahead of time, I do bet every play that I post. ***Because my systems are proprietary, I fully recommend doing your own due diligence and not following my plays blindly. I have losing months just like everyone else, and I certainly don't feel like I am ever going to be the best capper that posts here. Hopefully, these plays will show the type of long-term success that I have come to enjoy so that you can consider them when making your picks.***

    Twitter:
    In my signature is a link to my Twitter, which you can see that I just setup. If you are interested, hit the Follow button, as I will post my plays to Twitter before I post them here. In my profile on Twitter, I have provided two links: 1) a Google spreadsheet that has historical logs of all my plays going back to April of 2019; 2) a link to my ****** email for donations.

    Google Spreadsheet:
    If you read my introductory tweets, you will see that I was recording all of my results with a pen and paper up until April 2019. As I get time, I will be updating the spreadsheet with past months/years. Once I have added an entire past month's worth of plays, I will tweet out that a month has been added to the spreadsheet. Again, my expectation is that everyone will be skeptical of past plays when I have no documented evidence available besides my notes to quantify past results. My hope is that, over time, my plays will speak for themselves, and you will be able to put more confidence in the fact that my spreadsheet contains my true results.

    ****** Link:
    As for the link to ******, I have been following sportsbetting communities long enough to know that people appreciate transparency and good results. The custom programming that I have incorporated over the years has certainly not been cost-effective, but I love statistics so I considered it "the cost of a hobby." If you find that my picks have helped you make money and you are feeling charitable, I appreciate anything that you can give - to be clear, I am not expecting donations of any kind.

    Chosen Sportsbook:
    BetAnySports (BAS) is my choice for one reason: reduced juice. As you can see from the spreadsheet, I am a high volume bettor, especially in the collegiate sports. I understand that my success is predicated on reduced juice lines. 5Dimes' decision within the last month had me searching for another book, and I landed on BAS because of their -105 lines. To be clear, I am not endorsing BAS in any way, shape, or form. You will see no affiliate link because I am not an affiliate with them. This is simply the book that I choose to place my bets with. You can choose to play wherever you see fit, although you will see that the lines I bet and post will be from BAS (reduced juice). Please do not contact me if you have any problems with depositing or withdrawing from BAS because I do not work for them or represent them. I simply want everyone to know where the lines that I bet come from.

    FAQs:

    1) If your plays were that good, you would just keep them to yourself, bet them, and win all of the money? Why are you still only betting $100 if your results have been so awesome? Everyone has their risk tolerance. $100/game is mine, especially considering that I bet such a high volume of plays. College football and college basketball season can get very overwhelming with a lot of money spread over 20+ games. I am not here to take down Las Vegas, I am here to put my intelligence to good use and try to win some money along the way. I have gone through a ton of bad streaks and have no interest in ever going broke with my sports betting bankroll.

    2) You are just trying to look like a "good guy tout" by asking for donations. Why should I give you any of my money? It is up to you to believe whatever you wish, and I am certainly not going to force anyone to donate. I do put a lot of time and effort into my research and am constantly manipulating my systems based on styles of play in each sport (i.e. the preponderance of overs in the NFL so far this year). Donations are not expected, but any money that I do receive from a donation would go toward hardware purchases to enhance the efficacy of the systems that create these picks.

    3) Do you have losing months? Absolutely. The spreadsheet will show that I was a losing bettor in both August and September of this year. I believe in the logic that my systems have been built on, but nothing is infallible. 2019 was an absolute anomaly. I didn't have a losing month in 2019, which made me realize that 2020 was probably not going to be as profitable. I release losing picks - it happens, you don't have to follow blindly.

    4) If I follow you on Twitter, how do I know when you have have submitted your bet? Any time you see the line AND odds posted together, that is in an indication that I have booked my bet and will be tracking it on my spreadsheet. For example, tonight I am on the LA Lakers. To indicate that I have recorded a bet for tracking purposes, I will post the final line AND odds that I placed my bet at - LA Lakers (-7.5; -101). Many times, I will post my plays early so that everyone can watch the market and try to get the best line that they can, but until you see the odds AND line, I have not confirmed that bet.

    5) What sports do you bet? As of right now, I track data and build systems for the following: MLB, NBA, NHL, WNBA, NFL, CFL, NCAAF, NCAAB. I will have separate threads in each of the corresponding forums for those picks.


    Thanks to everyone for reading. My next post will be plays that I have identified for Week 5 in the NFL. I will also be making a similar post to the College Football board with the same bio and picks for this week as well. Take care and feel free to ask questions!
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  2. #2  
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    Early Picks for Week 5 (none of have been locked in yet) - I will be playing these, but I evaluate the market and try to place my bet accordingly:

    Chicago - Spread (TNF)

    Seattle - Spread

    New Orleans - Spread

    Indianapolis/Cleveland - Under
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  3. #3  
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    Getting close to locking in the Chicago spread on Thursday night, as it has come down a full point just within the past couple of hours. I am still seeing +5 at a lot of books, but it seems like it might be trending down.
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  4. #4  
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    Chicago (+3.5; -110)

    NFL
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  5. #5  
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    Indianapolis/Cleveland (U-48; -102)
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  6. #6  
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    Seattle (-6.5; -105)
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  7. #7  
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    Buffalo (-3.5; +107)

    Tuesday Night Football
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  8. #8  
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    Obviously not a good first week for me at RX, but I will continue to post my picks and be transparent. When it picks back up, as it is sure to do, I want everyone to see that I post everything - win or lose.

    Record at RX (1-3)
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  9. #9  
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    Here is what I have for tomorrow (10/18):

    Atlanta - Spread

    NY Jets - Spread

    Green Bay - Spread

    Carolina - Under

    Haven't locked any of these in yet. Going to see what the market looks like in the morning. Will post updated picks when I lock in lines!
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  10. #10  
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    Chicago/Carolina (U-45; -102)
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  11. #11  
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    NY Jets (+8.5; -105)
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  12. #12  
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    Atlanta (+4; -105)
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  13. #13  
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    Green Bay (-1; -105)
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  14. #14  
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    With nothing on Monday Night Football, a ho-hum 2-2 week for the NFL picks. That gives me the following record since posting at RX:

    Record at RX (3-5; .375)

    I will get my plays up for this week so that everyone can try to get the best line possible if they are following.
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  15. #15  
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    Here are my picks for this week in the NFL. As always, best of luck on finding the best line you can for these bets:

    Tennessee - Spread

    Houston - Spread

    New Orleans - Spread

    Dallas
    - Spread

    Arizona - Spread

    Los Angeles Chargers - Spread
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  16. #16  
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    Six games for this week in the NFL...all locked in now.

    Arizona (+3; +108)

    Dallas (+1; -105)

    New Orleans (-6.5; -107)

    LA Chargers (-7.5; +100)

    Houston (+3; +110)

    Tennessee (-1.5; -105)
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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  17. #17  
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    Disappointing week in the NFL, as we go 2-4, but next week is another week.

    Record at RX (5-9; .357)
    Picks are always uploaded first at: https://twitter.com/989SportsPicks
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