451CAROLINA -452 ATLANTA
ATLANTA is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) in home games vs. good offenses (>=24 PPG) since 1992.
453LAS VEGAS -454 KANSAS CITY
LAS VEGAS are 30-67 ATS (-43.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.
455DENVER -456 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 192-137 ATS (41.3 Units) after the first month of the season since 1992.
457LA RAMS -458 WASHINGTON
LA RAMS are 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite since 1992.
459JACKSONVILLE -460 HOUSTON
JACKSONVILLE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. in the last 3 seasons.
461BUFFALO -462 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return since 1992.
463ARIZONA -464 NY JETS
NY JETS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the last 3 seasons.
465PHILADELPHIA -466 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 70-39 ATS (27.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
467CINCINNATI -468 BALTIMORE
CINCINNATI is 23-45 ATS (-26.5 Units) vs. good rushing teams (>130 RY) since 1992.
469MIAMI -470 SAN FRANCISCO
MIAMI is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1992.
471NY GIANTS -472 DALLAS
NY GIANTS are 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) in the last 3 seasons.
473INDIANAPOLIS -474 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 34-59 ATS (-30.9 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
475MINNESOTA -476 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game in the last 2 seasons.
477LA CHARGERS -478 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 21-42 ATS (-25.2 Units) in home games vs. good offenses (>=24 PPG) since 1992.
453LAS VEGAS -454 KANSAS CITY
LAS VEGAS are 30-67 ATS (-43.7 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing >=350 yards/game since 1992.
455DENVER -456 NEW ENGLAND
NEW ENGLAND is 192-137 ATS (41.3 Units) after the first month of the season since 1992.
457LA RAMS -458 WASHINGTON
LA RAMS are 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) off a home no-cover where the team won as a favorite since 1992.
459JACKSONVILLE -460 HOUSTON
JACKSONVILLE is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) vs. good passing teams averaging 235 or more passing yards/game. in the last 3 seasons.
461BUFFALO -462 TENNESSEE
TENNESSEE is 2-13 ATS (-12.3 Units) in home games vs. excellent punt return teams, more than 12 yards per return since 1992.
463ARIZONA -464 NY JETS
NY JETS are 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) versus poor rushing defenses - allowing >=4.5 rushing yards/carry in the last 3 seasons.
465PHILADELPHIA -466 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 70-39 ATS (27.1 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game since 1992.
467CINCINNATI -468 BALTIMORE
CINCINNATI is 23-45 ATS (-26.5 Units) vs. good rushing teams (>130 RY) since 1992.
469MIAMI -470 SAN FRANCISCO
MIAMI is 12-28 ATS (-18.8 Units) after allowing 400 or more total yards/game in their last 3 games since 1992.
471NY GIANTS -472 DALLAS
NY GIANTS are 9-0 ATS (9 Units) in road games vs. poor defenses (>=5.65 YPP) in the last 3 seasons.
473INDIANAPOLIS -474 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 34-59 ATS (-30.9 Units) vs. mistake prone teams - 60+ penalty yards per game since 1992.
475MINNESOTA -476 SEATTLE
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (7 Units) after allowing 300 or more passing yards in their last game in the last 2 seasons.
477LA CHARGERS -478 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
NFL
Long Sheet
Week 5
Sunday, October 11
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAROLINA (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (0 - 3) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 85-59 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LAS VEGAS (2 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DENVER (1 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) - 10/11/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-209 ATS (+42.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-209 ATS (+42.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 209-153 ATS (+40.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-91 ATS (+31.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA RAMS (3 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 3) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 150-193 ATS (-62.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 77-107 ATS (-40.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 68-99 ATS (-40.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) at HOUSTON (0 - 4) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BUFFALO (4 - 0) at TENNESSEE (3 - 0) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA (2 - 2) at NY JETS (0 - 4) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 0) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-37 ATS (+24.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 74-44 ATS (+25.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 79-55 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINCINNATI (1 - 2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIAMI (1 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/11/2020, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NY GIANTS (0 - 4) at DALLAS (1 - 3) - 10/11/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 1) at CLEVELAND (3 - 1) - 10/11/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 111-83 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (1 - 3) at SEATTLE (4 - 0) - 10/11/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 40-63 ATS (-29.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
Long Sheet
Week 5
Sunday, October 11
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CAROLINA (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (0 - 3) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 85-59 ATS (+20.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 4-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 4-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LAS VEGAS (2 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (3 - 0) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 3-1 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 4-0 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
DENVER (1 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (2 - 1) - 10/11/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-209 ATS (+42.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 272-209 ATS (+42.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 209-153 ATS (+40.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 132-91 ATS (+31.9 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 68-44 ATS (+19.6 Units) in October games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 73-48 ATS (+20.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LA RAMS (3 - 1) at WASHINGTON (1 - 3) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LA RAMS are 150-193 ATS (-62.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 23-40 ATS (-21.0 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
LA RAMS are 77-107 ATS (-40.7 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 68-99 ATS (-40.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 94-126 ATS (-44.6 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
JACKSONVILLE (1 - 3) at HOUSTON (0 - 4) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BUFFALO (4 - 0) at TENNESSEE (3 - 0) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 125-161 ATS (-52.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
ARIZONA (2 - 2) at NY JETS (0 - 4) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) against NFC West division opponents since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PHILADELPHIA (1 - 2 - 1) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 0) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 111-81 ATS (+21.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 55-35 ATS (+16.5 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 65-37 ATS (+24.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 74-44 ATS (+25.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 79-55 ATS (+18.5 Units) in road games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CINCINNATI (1 - 2 - 1) at BALTIMORE (3 - 1) - 10/11/2020, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 42-64 ATS (-28.4 Units) in October games since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 3-1 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MIAMI (1 - 3) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/11/2020, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NY GIANTS (0 - 4) at DALLAS (1 - 3) - 10/11/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) in road games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 4-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 4-0 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 1) at CLEVELAND (3 - 1) - 10/11/2020, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 26-12 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 111-83 ATS (+19.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MINNESOTA (1 - 3) at SEATTLE (4 - 0) - 10/11/2020, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 40-63 ATS (-29.3 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 2-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 2-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
NFL
Week 5
Trend Report
Sunday, October 11
Buffalo @ Tennessee
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Jacksonville @ Houston
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Houston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Jacksonville
Las Vegas @ Kansas City
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arizona @ NY Jets
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
NY Jets
NY Jets is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Carolina @ Atlanta
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Carolina's last 14 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
LA Rams @ Washington
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore
Baltimore is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Miami @ San Francisco
Miami
Miami is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Miami is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Denver @ New England
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
New England
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
NY Giants @ Dallas
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Indianapolis @ Cleveland
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Minnesota @ Seattle
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Week 5
Trend Report
Sunday, October 11
Buffalo @ Tennessee
Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 5 games when playing Tennessee
Buffalo is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Tennessee
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tennessee's last 7 games at home
Tennessee is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Jacksonville @ Houston
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 6 games when playing Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games
Houston
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Jacksonville
Houston is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Jacksonville
Las Vegas @ Kansas City
Las Vegas
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Las Vegas's last 5 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Las Vegas's last 5 games
Kansas City
Kansas City is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Arizona @ NY Jets
Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 6 games
NY Jets
NY Jets is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Arizona
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Jets's last 5 games when playing Arizona
Carolina @ Atlanta
Carolina
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Carolina's last 14 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Carolina's last 10 games
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
LA Rams @ Washington
LA Rams
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Rams's last 5 games when playing on the road against Washington
The total has gone OVER in 4 of LA Rams's last 5 games on the road
Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 5 games when playing at home against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Washington's last 7 games
Philadelphia @ Pittsburgh
Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 6 games on the road
Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Cincinnati @ Baltimore
Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore
Baltimore
Baltimore is 15-2 SU in its last 17 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Baltimore's last 5 games
Miami @ San Francisco
Miami
Miami is 11-5 ATS in its last 16 games
Miami is 6-3 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
San Francisco
San Francisco is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
Denver @ New England
Denver
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games when playing on the road against New England
Denver is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
New England
New England is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
NY Giants @ Dallas
NY Giants
NY Giants is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Giants's last 5 games on the road
Dallas
Dallas is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Dallas is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing NY Giants
Indianapolis @ Cleveland
Indianapolis
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland
Cleveland is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games at home
Minnesota @ Seattle
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games when playing on the road against Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing at home against Minnesota
NFL
Week 5
Panthers (2-2) @ Atlanta (0-4)
— Carolina won its last two games, outscoring foes 39-14 in first half.
— Panthers converted 23-47 third down plays this season.
— Carolina averaged 7.2+ yards/pass attempt in every game.
— Panthers are 7-8 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Falcons lost their first four games, giving up 34.5 ppg.
— Three of four Atlanta games went over the total- they’re scoring 26.5 ppg.
— Short week for the Falcons after Monday’s loss in Green Bay.
— Atlanta 5-8 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Falcons won eight of last nine series games, winning last five, four by 12+ points.
— Panthers lost last five visits to Atlanta, all by 7+ points.
Raiders (2-2) @ Kansas City (4-0)
— Raiders split their first four games, which all went over the total.
— Las Vegas allowed 30+ points in three of their four games.
— Raider opponents converted half (24-48) their 3rd down plays.
— Las Vegas is 9-15 ATS in its last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Short week for the Chiefs, after beating New England Monday.
— Kansas City won its first four games (3-1 ATS), scoring 29.3 ppg.
— Under is 3-0-1 in Chief games this season.
— Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.
— Chiefs are 10-1 in last 11 series games, winning last five, four by 11+ points.
— Raiders lost last seven games in Arrowhead, losing 35-3/40-9 in last two.
Broncos (1-3) @ New England (2-2)
— Broncos started three different QB’s in their 1-3 start.
— Denver lost three of first four games, but covered three of the four.
— Broncos have only two takeaways, are minus-6 in turnovers.
— Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog.
— Unclear who will play QB; probably Stidham getting his first NFL start.
— Short week for Patriots, who’ve run ball for 179.8 yards/game.
— New England had two empty trips to red zone LW, which prompted the QB change.
— Patriots are 26-13-1 ATS in last 40 games as a home favorite.
— Patriots are 7-3 in last ten series games; last meeting was 2017.
— Broncos lost last five visits to Foxboro; their last visit here was 2014.
Rams (3-1) @ Washington (1-3)
— Rams won three of first four games; this is already their third east coast game.
— LA allowed 19 or fewer points in their three wins, 35 in their loss.
— Rams outscored opponents 59-23 in second half this season.
— Under McVay, LA is 13-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Washington lost its last three games, giving up 31.7 ppg.
— Washington allowed 160-158-144 rushing yards the last three weeks.
— Redskins have been outscored 75-24 in the first half this season.
— Washington is
— Teams split last eight series games; McVay’s first loss as Rans’ coach was vs Washington in Week 2 of 2017, teams’ last meeting.
— McVay came to the Rams after being an assistant in Washington.
— Teams split last four series games played here.
Jaguars (1-3) @ Houston (0-4)
— Jaguars lost their last three games, giving up 32 ppg.
— Three of four Jacksonville games went over the total.
— Last two games, Jaguars converted only 5-20 third down plays.
— Jacksonville is 5-9-1 ATS in last fifteen games as a road underdog.
— Houston lost its first four games, giving up 28.3 ppg- they fired the coach Monday.
— Texans don’t have a takeaway yet , are minus-5 in turnovers.
— Houston has been outscored 55-36 in the 2nd half of games.
— Texans are 8-13-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Texans won 8 of last 10 series games, winning last four, three by 13+ points.
— Jaguars lost five of last six visits here, losing 20-3/13-12 in last two.
Bills (4-0) @ Tennessee (3-0)
— Buffalo won its first four games, scoring 30.8 ppg.
— All four Buffalo games went over the total.
— Bills have converted 24-47 third down plays this year.
— Buffalo is 16-12-1 ATS in its last 29 road games.
— Tennessee won its first three games by combined total of six points.
— Titans are scoring 26.7 ppg; they’ve only had one turnover (+4) so far.
— Tennessee had COVID-related issues last week, didn’t play.
— Titans are 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games at home.
— AFC South teams are 3-8 ATS outside their division, 2-3 at home.
— Buffalo won last three series games, by total of nine points.
— Average total in last three series games, 24.3.
— Bills won 14-13/14-7 in their last two trips to Nashville.
Cardinals (2-2) @ NJ Jets (0-4)
— Cardinals lost their last two games, giving up 26-31 points.
— Three of four Arizona games stayed under the total.
— Cardinals were held to 133 passing yards LW; they gave up 444 yards to Carolina.
— Last 4+ years, Arizona is 3-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Jets lost their first four games, giving up 32.8 ppg.
— Three of four New York games went over the total.
— Jets scored only 22 points in their last seven red zone drives.
— New York is 4-6-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog.
— Jets are 6-3 in this series; they lost last meeting 28-3 at Arizona in 2016.
— Cardinals are 1-3 in series games in the Garden State; their lone was in 1975.
Eagles (1-2-1) @ Pittsburgh (3-0)
— Eagles are off to a 1-2-1 start; they led three of four games at halftime.
— Philly allowed 26.8 ppg this year, allowing 13 TD’s on 45 drives.
— Eagles had 3 takeaways (+2) LW, after having one (-7) in first three games.
— Philly is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Steelers won their first three games, scoring 26-26-28 points- they didn’t play last week, because of the Titans’ COVID issues.
— Three teams Pittsburgh beat have a combined record of 1-10.
— Steelers have run ball for 139.7 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 10-13 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Philly won seven of last ten series games.
— Home team won six of last seven series games.
— Eagles lost three of their last four visits to the Steel City.
Bengals (1-2-1) @ Baltimore (3-1)
— Bengals covered last three games (1-1-1 SU), scoring 28.7 ppg.
— Cincy had 8 plays of 20+ yards LW; they had 6 in first three games.
— Bengals’ two losses this season were by total of eight points.
— Cincy is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Baltimore scored 31+ points in its three wins, 20 in their loss.
— Three of four Raven games stayed under the total.
— Baltimore has outscored opponents 47-20 in second half.
— Ravens are 9-16 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.
— Baltimore won last three series games, by 3-6-36 points.
— Bengals lost 24-21/23-17 in their last two visits to Charm City.
Dolphins (1-3) @ San Francisco (2-2)
— Miami has been outgained in all four games.
— Dolphins converted 14 of last 31 third plays.
— Miami scored 82 points in its last three games (8 TD’s on 29 drives).
— Dolphins are 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.
— 49ers split their first four games; road team won all four games.
— Niners scored 31-36 points in their wins; 20-20 in their losses.
— QB Garoppolo isn’t expected to play here; could be 3rd-stringer Beathard.
— 49ers are 5-12-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.
— Dolphins won three of last four series games.
— Teams split six meetings here; Miami’s last visit here was 2012.
NJ Giants (0-4) @ Dallas (1-3)
— Giants lost their first four games, scoring 11.8 ppg; they didn’t score a TD in their last two games, going 20 drives since their last touchdown.
— Three of four Giant games stayed under the total.
— Last three games, Giants have been outscored 43-12 in first half.
— Giants covered 12 of last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Dallas lost three of first four games, giving up 42 ppg in last three games.
— Cowboys gave up 508 yards to Cleveland last week, 307 yards on the ground.
— Last three Dallas games went over the total.
— Cowboys are 10-11-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite, 0-2 this year.
— Giants’ OC Jason Garrett was the Dallas head coach from 2011-19.
— Dallas won last six series games, scoring 36 ppg in last three.
— Giants lost last three visits to Dallas, by 16-7-18 points.
Colts (3-1) @ Cleveland (3-1)
— Colts won their last three games, giving up 9.7 ppg (3 TDs on 31 drives)
— Last three Indy games stayed under the total.
— Colts outgained Jacksonville by 204 yards in their only loss.
— Last 4+ years, Colts are 3-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Cleveland won its last three games, scoring 35-34-49 points.
— Browns ran ball for 307 yards LW, are averaging 203.5 ypg on the ground.
— Last two weeks, Cleveland was +7 in turnovers- they won field position the last three weeks, by 13-13-12 yards.
— Browns are 9-8-1 ATS in their last 18 home games.
— Indy won eight of last nine series games, winning last three, by total of 8 points.
— Colts won their last five visits to Cleveland, all by 5 or fewer points.
— Last time Cleveland beat the Colts? 2011.
Vikings (1-3) @ Seattle (4-0)
— Minnesota lost three of first four games, despite scoring 30+ points three times.
— Vikings ran ball for 228-162 yards in last two games.
— Minnesota has 22 plays of 20+ yards this year, which is good.
— Vikings are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Seahawks won/covered their first four games, scoring 35.5 ppg.
— Seattle has 19 touchdowns on 42 drives this season.
— All four Seahawks games went over the total.
— Seattle is 8-12-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite (2-0 TY)
— Seahawks won their last six games with Minnesota; they beat Vikings 37-30 LY.
— Vikings lost their last four visits to Seattle, all by 7+ points.
Week 5
Panthers (2-2) @ Atlanta (0-4)
— Carolina won its last two games, outscoring foes 39-14 in first half.
— Panthers converted 23-47 third down plays this season.
— Carolina averaged 7.2+ yards/pass attempt in every game.
— Panthers are 7-8 ATS in their last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Falcons lost their first four games, giving up 34.5 ppg.
— Three of four Atlanta games went over the total- they’re scoring 26.5 ppg.
— Short week for the Falcons after Monday’s loss in Green Bay.
— Atlanta 5-8 ATS in its last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Falcons won eight of last nine series games, winning last five, four by 12+ points.
— Panthers lost last five visits to Atlanta, all by 7+ points.
Raiders (2-2) @ Kansas City (4-0)
— Raiders split their first four games, which all went over the total.
— Las Vegas allowed 30+ points in three of their four games.
— Raider opponents converted half (24-48) their 3rd down plays.
— Las Vegas is 9-15 ATS in its last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Short week for the Chiefs, after beating New England Monday.
— Kansas City won its first four games (3-1 ATS), scoring 29.3 ppg.
— Under is 3-0-1 in Chief games this season.
— Chiefs are 8-2 ATS in last ten games as a home favorite.
— Chiefs are 10-1 in last 11 series games, winning last five, four by 11+ points.
— Raiders lost last seven games in Arrowhead, losing 35-3/40-9 in last two.
Broncos (1-3) @ New England (2-2)
— Broncos started three different QB’s in their 1-3 start.
— Denver lost three of first four games, but covered three of the four.
— Broncos have only two takeaways, are minus-6 in turnovers.
— Denver is 6-3 ATS in its last nine games as a road underdog.
— Unclear who will play QB; probably Stidham getting his first NFL start.
— Short week for Patriots, who’ve run ball for 179.8 yards/game.
— New England had two empty trips to red zone LW, which prompted the QB change.
— Patriots are 26-13-1 ATS in last 40 games as a home favorite.
— Patriots are 7-3 in last ten series games; last meeting was 2017.
— Broncos lost last five visits to Foxboro; their last visit here was 2014.
Rams (3-1) @ Washington (1-3)
— Rams won three of first four games; this is already their third east coast game.
— LA allowed 19 or fewer points in their three wins, 35 in their loss.
— Rams outscored opponents 59-23 in second half this season.
— Under McVay, LA is 13-8 ATS as a road favorite.
— Washington lost its last three games, giving up 31.7 ppg.
— Washington allowed 160-158-144 rushing yards the last three weeks.
— Redskins have been outscored 75-24 in the first half this season.
— Washington is
— Teams split last eight series games; McVay’s first loss as Rans’ coach was vs Washington in Week 2 of 2017, teams’ last meeting.
— McVay came to the Rams after being an assistant in Washington.
— Teams split last four series games played here.
Jaguars (1-3) @ Houston (0-4)
— Jaguars lost their last three games, giving up 32 ppg.
— Three of four Jacksonville games went over the total.
— Last two games, Jaguars converted only 5-20 third down plays.
— Jacksonville is 5-9-1 ATS in last fifteen games as a road underdog.
— Houston lost its first four games, giving up 28.3 ppg- they fired the coach Monday.
— Texans don’t have a takeaway yet , are minus-5 in turnovers.
— Houston has been outscored 55-36 in the 2nd half of games.
— Texans are 8-13-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite.
— Texans won 8 of last 10 series games, winning last four, three by 13+ points.
— Jaguars lost five of last six visits here, losing 20-3/13-12 in last two.
Bills (4-0) @ Tennessee (3-0)
— Buffalo won its first four games, scoring 30.8 ppg.
— All four Buffalo games went over the total.
— Bills have converted 24-47 third down plays this year.
— Buffalo is 16-12-1 ATS in its last 29 road games.
— Tennessee won its first three games by combined total of six points.
— Titans are scoring 26.7 ppg; they’ve only had one turnover (+4) so far.
— Tennessee had COVID-related issues last week, didn’t play.
— Titans are 7-9-1 ATS in last 17 games at home.
— AFC South teams are 3-8 ATS outside their division, 2-3 at home.
— Buffalo won last three series games, by total of nine points.
— Average total in last three series games, 24.3.
— Bills won 14-13/14-7 in their last two trips to Nashville.
Cardinals (2-2) @ NJ Jets (0-4)
— Cardinals lost their last two games, giving up 26-31 points.
— Three of four Arizona games stayed under the total.
— Cardinals were held to 133 passing yards LW; they gave up 444 yards to Carolina.
— Last 4+ years, Arizona is 3-5 ATS as a road favorite.
— Jets lost their first four games, giving up 32.8 ppg.
— Three of four New York games went over the total.
— Jets scored only 22 points in their last seven red zone drives.
— New York is 4-6-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a home underdog.
— Jets are 6-3 in this series; they lost last meeting 28-3 at Arizona in 2016.
— Cardinals are 1-3 in series games in the Garden State; their lone was in 1975.
Eagles (1-2-1) @ Pittsburgh (3-0)
— Eagles are off to a 1-2-1 start; they led three of four games at halftime.
— Philly allowed 26.8 ppg this year, allowing 13 TD’s on 45 drives.
— Eagles had 3 takeaways (+2) LW, after having one (-7) in first three games.
— Philly is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Steelers won their first three games, scoring 26-26-28 points- they didn’t play last week, because of the Titans’ COVID issues.
— Three teams Pittsburgh beat have a combined record of 1-10.
— Steelers have run ball for 139.7 yards/game this season.
— Pittsburgh is 10-13 ATS in last 13 games as a home favorite.
— Philly won seven of last ten series games.
— Home team won six of last seven series games.
— Eagles lost three of their last four visits to the Steel City.
Bengals (1-2-1) @ Baltimore (3-1)
— Bengals covered last three games (1-1-1 SU), scoring 28.7 ppg.
— Cincy had 8 plays of 20+ yards LW; they had 6 in first three games.
— Bengals’ two losses this season were by total of eight points.
— Cincy is 16-8 ATS in its last 24 games as a road underdog.
— Baltimore scored 31+ points in its three wins, 20 in their loss.
— Three of four Raven games stayed under the total.
— Baltimore has outscored opponents 47-20 in second half.
— Ravens are 9-16 ATS in last 25 games as a home favorite.
— Baltimore won last three series games, by 3-6-36 points.
— Bengals lost 24-21/23-17 in their last two visits to Charm City.
Dolphins (1-3) @ San Francisco (2-2)
— Miami has been outgained in all four games.
— Dolphins converted 14 of last 31 third plays.
— Miami scored 82 points in its last three games (8 TD’s on 29 drives).
— Dolphins are 10-16 ATS in their last 26 games as a road underdog.
— 49ers split their first four games; road team won all four games.
— Niners scored 31-36 points in their wins; 20-20 in their losses.
— QB Garoppolo isn’t expected to play here; could be 3rd-stringer Beathard.
— 49ers are 5-12-1 ATS in last 18 games as a home favorite.
— Dolphins won three of last four series games.
— Teams split six meetings here; Miami’s last visit here was 2012.
NJ Giants (0-4) @ Dallas (1-3)
— Giants lost their first four games, scoring 11.8 ppg; they didn’t score a TD in their last two games, going 20 drives since their last touchdown.
— Three of four Giant games stayed under the total.
— Last three games, Giants have been outscored 43-12 in first half.
— Giants covered 12 of last 15 games as a road underdog.
— Dallas lost three of first four games, giving up 42 ppg in last three games.
— Cowboys gave up 508 yards to Cleveland last week, 307 yards on the ground.
— Last three Dallas games went over the total.
— Cowboys are 10-11-1 ATS in last 22 games as a home favorite, 0-2 this year.
— Giants’ OC Jason Garrett was the Dallas head coach from 2011-19.
— Dallas won last six series games, scoring 36 ppg in last three.
— Giants lost last three visits to Dallas, by 16-7-18 points.
Colts (3-1) @ Cleveland (3-1)
— Colts won their last three games, giving up 9.7 ppg (3 TDs on 31 drives)
— Last three Indy games stayed under the total.
— Colts outgained Jacksonville by 204 yards in their only loss.
— Last 4+ years, Colts are 3-3 ATS as a road favorite.
— Cleveland won its last three games, scoring 35-34-49 points.
— Browns ran ball for 307 yards LW, are averaging 203.5 ypg on the ground.
— Last two weeks, Cleveland was +7 in turnovers- they won field position the last three weeks, by 13-13-12 yards.
— Browns are 9-8-1 ATS in their last 18 home games.
— Indy won eight of last nine series games, winning last three, by total of 8 points.
— Colts won their last five visits to Cleveland, all by 5 or fewer points.
— Last time Cleveland beat the Colts? 2011.
Vikings (1-3) @ Seattle (4-0)
— Minnesota lost three of first four games, despite scoring 30+ points three times.
— Vikings ran ball for 228-162 yards in last two games.
— Minnesota has 22 plays of 20+ yards this year, which is good.
— Vikings are 4-8-1 ATS in last 13 games as a road underdog.
— Seahawks won/covered their first four games, scoring 35.5 ppg.
— Seattle has 19 touchdowns on 42 drives this season.
— All four Seahawks games went over the total.
— Seattle is 8-12-1 ATS in last 21 games as a home favorite (2-0 TY)
— Seahawks won their last six games with Minnesota; they beat Vikings 37-30 LY.
— Vikings lost their last four visits to Seattle, all by 7+ points.
NFL Week 5 Injuries, Weather
Patrick Everson
Browns running back Nick Chubb suffered an MCL sprain in Sunday's upset of the Cowboys and will miss a few weeks. Cleveland dropped from pick to a 2.5-point home underdog against Indianapolis.
NFL Week 4 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 5 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes key injury news, most notably on Cleveland Browns running Back Nick Chubb and New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold.
Week 5 Injuries
Cleveland Browns: Nick Chubb suffered an MCL sprain in Sunday’s upset of Dallas and could be out six weeks. This week’s game against the Colts opened at pick, but the Browns dropped to 2.5-point home underdogs Monday at The SuperBook at Westgate. The total also ticked down a notch, from 48 to 47.5.
New York Jets: Sam Darnold (shoulder) is uncertain for Sunday’s home game against Arizona. Interestingly, though, the Jets moved from +7.5 to +6.5 Monday at The SuperBook.
Los Angeles Chargers: Running back Austin Ekeler (hamstring) is expected to go on injured reserve and miss several weeks. But the first move in the line for L.A.’s Monday nighter at New Orleans was toward the Chargers, from +8 to +7.5, and the total was stable at 52.
Week 5 Weather
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers: The early forecast suggests a 50 percent chance of rain by way of occasional showers in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore is also looking at occasional rain showers Sunday, with the early prediction of a 50 percent chance of precipitation.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: There’s pretty much always a chance of rain in Seattle. For the Week 5 Sunday-nighter, the early forecast predicted a 40 percent chance of showers.
Patrick Everson
Browns running back Nick Chubb suffered an MCL sprain in Sunday's upset of the Cowboys and will miss a few weeks. Cleveland dropped from pick to a 2.5-point home underdog against Indianapolis.
NFL Week 4 is in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 5 odds are on the board, and several betting factors are already in play. That includes key injury news, most notably on Cleveland Browns running Back Nick Chubb and New York Jets quarterback Sam Darnold.
Week 5 Injuries
Cleveland Browns: Nick Chubb suffered an MCL sprain in Sunday’s upset of Dallas and could be out six weeks. This week’s game against the Colts opened at pick, but the Browns dropped to 2.5-point home underdogs Monday at The SuperBook at Westgate. The total also ticked down a notch, from 48 to 47.5.
New York Jets: Sam Darnold (shoulder) is uncertain for Sunday’s home game against Arizona. Interestingly, though, the Jets moved from +7.5 to +6.5 Monday at The SuperBook.
Los Angeles Chargers: Running back Austin Ekeler (hamstring) is expected to go on injured reserve and miss several weeks. But the first move in the line for L.A.’s Monday nighter at New Orleans was toward the Chargers, from +8 to +7.5, and the total was stable at 52.
Week 5 Weather
Philadelphia Eagles at Pittsburgh Steelers: The early forecast suggests a 50 percent chance of rain by way of occasional showers in Pittsburgh on Sunday.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore is also looking at occasional rain showers Sunday, with the early prediction of a 50 percent chance of precipitation.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks: There’s pretty much always a chance of rain in Seattle. For the Week 5 Sunday-nighter, the early forecast predicted a 40 percent chance of showers.
NFL odds Week 5: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson
Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs and the Raiders face a huge chore on the road Sunday against the Chiefs. The SuperBook opened Kansas City as 12-point chalk Sunday night.
NFL Week 4 is almost in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 5 odds are on the betting board, and a few games are already getting action. Among the noteworthy matchups, the Philadelphia Eagles cross the state to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Las Vegas Raiders meet the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 5 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.
NFL Week 5 odds
These are the current NFL Week 5 odds, as of September October 4.
Teams on bye: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers
Buccaneers at Bears odds
Opening line
Bears +5.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This game was already on the move Sunday night at The SuperBook, with bettors on the road favorite.
"We opened the Bucs -5.5 and moved quickly up to -6 off of bets. The Bears did not impress anyone with their performance today," Murray said, alluding to Chicago's 19-11 home loss to Indianapolis. "This line has jumped up considerably from the look-ahead number (last week) of 3. Look for the books to need Chicago big on Thursday."
Panthers at Falcons odds
Opening line
Falcons -3.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This line saw no movement Sunday night at the SuperBook. Atlanta still has Week 4 work to do, as a 7-point underdog at Green Bay in the Monday night game.
Raiders at Chiefs odds
Opening line
Chiefs -12, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
There was no line movement Sunday night, but Murray expects the public to line up behind the big chalk by next Sunday.
"The Raiders are banged up on D, and that’s scary when you have to face Patrick Mahomes & Co.," Murray said. "Look for the public to hammer Kansas City, especially if the Chiefs win big again on Monday night."
The Chiefs are 10.5-point home favorites against the Patriots, in a game postponed a day after New England QB Cam Newton had a positive COVID-19 test. Newton will miss at least two games.
Broncos at Patriots odds
Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off
Why the line moved
The SuperBook kept this game off the board Sunday night, waiting for more clarity on New England's COVID-19 situation. QB Cam Newton will certainly be out of the lineup, having tested positive Friday.
Rams at Washington odds
Opening line
Rams -10, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The Rams went off as 13.5-point home favorites against the New York Giants on Sunday, but needed a mid-fourth-quarter touchdown just to get a little breathing room in a 17-9 victory. Early Week 5 NFL bettors weren't impressed, with the first move to Rams -9 on Sunday night at The SuperBook.
Jaguars at Texans odds
Opening line
Texans -6.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This line had no movement Sunday night at The SuperBook.
Bills at Titans odds
Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off
Why the line moved
The SuperBook kept this game off the board Sunday night, awaiting more clarity on the Titans' COVID-19 situation. Tennessee's Week 4 home game against Pittsburgh was postponed after several players and staff tested positive.
Cardinals at Jets odds
Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off
Why the line moved
This is another game that didn't go up Sunday night at The SuperBook, while oddsmakers awaited clarity on the status of Jets QB Sam Darnold (shoulder).
Eagles at Steelers odds
Opening line
Steelers -8.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This line was up briefly Sunday evening before The SuperBook, per standard operating procedure, took it down when the Eagles kicked off against the 49ers. There was no early movement, but Murray expects good business this week.
"The Steelers will get a ton of moneyline parlay and teaser handle," Murray said Sunday evening. "But we have seen sharp money showing against the Steelers a couple times this season, and the Eagles are showing some life tonight, so that number may come down."
Bengals at Ravens odds
Opening line
Ravens -12, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Cincinnati rookie QB Joe Burrow got his first win last Sunday, 33-25 over visiting Jacksonville, but bettors are already behind Baltimore at The SuperBook. The Ravens moved from -12 to -13 Sunday night.
Dolphins at 49ers odds
Opening line
49ers -9.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The SuperBook opened San Francisco -9.5 Sunday evening, but again, per standard operating procedure, the line came down once the 49ers kicked off against the Eagles. The game will go back up Monday morning.
Giants at Cowboys odds
Opening line
Cowboys -8.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The Giants are 0-4 and the Cowboys 1-3, in a division in which all four teams have losing records. Dallas is still the cream of that subpar crop, though, so The SuperBook made the Cowboys 8.5-point home favorites, and the line moved to -9 Sunday night.
Colts at Browns odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
With Indianapolis and Cleveland both notching wins Sunday to improve to 3-1 SU, The SuperBook opted to make this game a pick 'em and see where bettors take it. There was no movement Sunday night.
Vikings at Seahawks odds
Opening line
Seahawks -7.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Seattle is among six unbeaten teams, but is one of only two – along with Buffalo – to stand 4-0, with the rest at 3-0. Minnesota finally cracked the win column with Sunday's victory at Houston, but The SuperBook still opened the Seahawks as more than a touchdown favorite. There was no line movement Sunday night.
Chargers at Saints odds
Opening line
Saints -8, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The Chargers are on the road and getting more than a touchdown against an NFC South foe for a second straight week, after losing 38-31 at Tampa Bay on Sunday.
"Good win for the Saints today on the road in Detroit," Murray said of New Orleans' 35-29 victory, after trailing 14-0 early. "The Chargers competed hard with the Bucs, but fell a little short. We can call some of their coaching decisions 'questionable' and move on. Look for the Saints to close out every live moneyline parlay and teaser from Sunday."
Patrick Everson
Derek Carr, Josh Jacobs and the Raiders face a huge chore on the road Sunday against the Chiefs. The SuperBook opened Kansas City as 12-point chalk Sunday night.
NFL Week 4 is almost in the rearview mirror, NFL Week 5 odds are on the betting board, and a few games are already getting action. Among the noteworthy matchups, the Philadelphia Eagles cross the state to face the Pittsburgh Steelers, and the Las Vegas Raiders meet the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 5 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.
NFL Week 5 odds
These are the current NFL Week 5 odds, as of September October 4.
Teams on bye: Detroit Lions, Green Bay Packers
Buccaneers at Bears odds
Opening line
Bears +5.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This game was already on the move Sunday night at The SuperBook, with bettors on the road favorite.
"We opened the Bucs -5.5 and moved quickly up to -6 off of bets. The Bears did not impress anyone with their performance today," Murray said, alluding to Chicago's 19-11 home loss to Indianapolis. "This line has jumped up considerably from the look-ahead number (last week) of 3. Look for the books to need Chicago big on Thursday."
Panthers at Falcons odds
Opening line
Falcons -3.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This line saw no movement Sunday night at the SuperBook. Atlanta still has Week 4 work to do, as a 7-point underdog at Green Bay in the Monday night game.
Raiders at Chiefs odds
Opening line
Chiefs -12, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
There was no line movement Sunday night, but Murray expects the public to line up behind the big chalk by next Sunday.
"The Raiders are banged up on D, and that’s scary when you have to face Patrick Mahomes & Co.," Murray said. "Look for the public to hammer Kansas City, especially if the Chiefs win big again on Monday night."
The Chiefs are 10.5-point home favorites against the Patriots, in a game postponed a day after New England QB Cam Newton had a positive COVID-19 test. Newton will miss at least two games.
Broncos at Patriots odds
Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off
Why the line moved
The SuperBook kept this game off the board Sunday night, waiting for more clarity on New England's COVID-19 situation. QB Cam Newton will certainly be out of the lineup, having tested positive Friday.
Rams at Washington odds
Opening line
Rams -10, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The Rams went off as 13.5-point home favorites against the New York Giants on Sunday, but needed a mid-fourth-quarter touchdown just to get a little breathing room in a 17-9 victory. Early Week 5 NFL bettors weren't impressed, with the first move to Rams -9 on Sunday night at The SuperBook.
Jaguars at Texans odds
Opening line
Texans -6.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This line had no movement Sunday night at The SuperBook.
Bills at Titans odds
Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off
Why the line moved
The SuperBook kept this game off the board Sunday night, awaiting more clarity on the Titans' COVID-19 situation. Tennessee's Week 4 home game against Pittsburgh was postponed after several players and staff tested positive.
Cardinals at Jets odds
Opening line
Off, Over/Under Off
Why the line moved
This is another game that didn't go up Sunday night at The SuperBook, while oddsmakers awaited clarity on the status of Jets QB Sam Darnold (shoulder).
Eagles at Steelers odds
Opening line
Steelers -8.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
This line was up briefly Sunday evening before The SuperBook, per standard operating procedure, took it down when the Eagles kicked off against the 49ers. There was no early movement, but Murray expects good business this week.
"The Steelers will get a ton of moneyline parlay and teaser handle," Murray said Sunday evening. "But we have seen sharp money showing against the Steelers a couple times this season, and the Eagles are showing some life tonight, so that number may come down."
Bengals at Ravens odds
Opening line
Ravens -12, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Cincinnati rookie QB Joe Burrow got his first win last Sunday, 33-25 over visiting Jacksonville, but bettors are already behind Baltimore at The SuperBook. The Ravens moved from -12 to -13 Sunday night.
Dolphins at 49ers odds
Opening line
49ers -9.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The SuperBook opened San Francisco -9.5 Sunday evening, but again, per standard operating procedure, the line came down once the 49ers kicked off against the Eagles. The game will go back up Monday morning.
Giants at Cowboys odds
Opening line
Cowboys -8.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The Giants are 0-4 and the Cowboys 1-3, in a division in which all four teams have losing records. Dallas is still the cream of that subpar crop, though, so The SuperBook made the Cowboys 8.5-point home favorites, and the line moved to -9 Sunday night.
Colts at Browns odds
Opening line
Pick, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
With Indianapolis and Cleveland both notching wins Sunday to improve to 3-1 SU, The SuperBook opted to make this game a pick 'em and see where bettors take it. There was no movement Sunday night.
Vikings at Seahawks odds
Opening line
Seahawks -7.5, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
Seattle is among six unbeaten teams, but is one of only two – along with Buffalo – to stand 4-0, with the rest at 3-0. Minnesota finally cracked the win column with Sunday's victory at Houston, but The SuperBook still opened the Seahawks as more than a touchdown favorite. There was no line movement Sunday night.
Chargers at Saints odds
Opening line
Saints -8, Over/Under TBA
Why the line moved
The Chargers are on the road and getting more than a touchdown against an NFC South foe for a second straight week, after losing 38-31 at Tampa Bay on Sunday.
"Good win for the Saints today on the road in Detroit," Murray said of New Orleans' 35-29 victory, after trailing 14-0 early. "The Chargers competed hard with the Bucs, but fell a little short. We can call some of their coaching decisions 'questionable' and move on. Look for the Saints to close out every live moneyline parlay and teaser from Sunday."
Betting Recap - Week 4
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Eagles (+8, ML +300) at 49ers, 25-20
Browns (+3.5, ML +200) at Cowboys, 49-38
Vikings (+3.5, ML +160) at Texans, 31-23
Panthers (+3, ML +145) vs. Cardinals, 31-21
The largest favorites to cover
Seahawks (-4.5) at Dolphins, 31-23
Bills (-3) at Raiders, 30-23
Saints (-3) at Lions, 35-29
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
Over and under bettors went on a roller coaster ride in the Philadelphia Eagles-San Francisco 49ers game on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles opened up the scoring with a touchdown and two-point conversion before the 49ers answered with a touchdown and standard extra point. There were 15 total points on the board, and the over was trending after 15 minutes. However, the two sides played a scoreless quarter, and the halftime score was 8-7. Under bettors were feeling very good about things with just 25 total points on the board heading into the final quarter.
With just 5:50 left in the game, there were still 32 points on the board until QB Carson Wentz hooked up with recent acquisiton WR Travis Fulgham for a 42-yard tip-toe job down the sideline, making it 18-14 in favor of the Eagles. Just eight seconds later the Eagles scored again, as CFL import LB Alex Singleton stepped in front of an errant QB Nick Mullens pass for a 30-yard interception return for touchdown. All of a sudden under (45.5) went from feeling confident to terrible within a matter of moments.
After the pick-six, the Niners removed Mullens in favor of QB C.J. Beathard, and the latter led a scoring drive to make it 25-20 pending the two-point conversion. Beathard threw a strike to TE George Kittle in the end zone, but the sure-handed receiver who was having a monster game was unable to corral it. The under was hanging on by a half-point, but there was still time left on the clock. The Eagles got the ball back, but were forced to punt just under two minutes, giving San Francisco another chance. The Niners drove down to the Philly 33, and Beathard threw a desperation pass into the end zone which touched hands, but eventually fell out of bounds. Over bettors must've felt like they lost twice.
Total Recall
The lowest total on the board in Week 4 was on Thursday night in the Denver Broncos-New York Jets (41) game. Broncos QB Brett Rypien made his first NFL start and he ended up throwing three interceptions, but he still hang on to win. And the Broncos posted 37 points, nearly taking care of the over themselves in the nine-point victory.
The second-lowest total on the board, and lowest on the Sunday slate, was the Los Angeles Chargers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42) cross-country battle. The teams got off to a quick start, as L.A. fired out to a 14-7 lead after 15 minutes, and a 24-14 lead at halftime. The Chargers already had a season-high for points in a single game with another entire half to go. They Bolts were averaging just 17.3 PPG through the first three outings, and the 'under' was 3-0. That changed Sunday, as the Bucs won 38-31.
The highest total on the board was in the Cleveland Browns-Dallas Cowboys (56.5) game, and this total wasn't even close to not cashing. The Browns fired up 31 points in the first half, leading 31-14 at the break. They led 41-14 after 45 minutes, so all that was needed was a field goal or more in the final quarter. That wasn't a problem, as the Cowboys made a furious run in the final 15, outscoring the Browns 24-8. The Browns held on for the 49-38 win, a total of 87 points for the highest-scoring game of the 2020 season. The point total eclipsed the 79 points the Falcons and Cowboys combined for in Week 2.
In the two primetime games we saw the over/under split 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers set to lock horns. The rescheduled New England Patriots-Kansas City Chiefs game is technically a primetime game, kicking at 7:05 p.m. ET, but we'll consider it a 'normal' Week 4 game.
So far this season the over is 6-6 (50.0%) across 12 primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Buccaneers posted a 38-31 win over the Chargers in Week 4, failing to cover a 7.5-point number just barely. QB Tom Brady threw five touchdowns, becoming the oldest QB in NFL history to throw for five scores in a single game, and he spread the wealth to five different receivers. They have now won three in a row, but they're 2-2 ATS overall. The point total was a season high, and they're averaging 34.5 PPG in two games at the Ray Jay, both over results. On the road, they're 1-1 SU/ATS while going 1-1 on the over/under, too. They're averaging just 26.5 PPG in their two trips so far this season. The Bears were defeated for the first time, falling to 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS. They're 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in two games at Soldier Field this season, both under results. The Bears are averaging just 14.0 PPG in two home games, and allowing just 16.0 PPG.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Bengals picked up their first win in the QB Joe Burrow era, topping the Jacksonville Jaguars. Cincinnati has now covered three straight games, including both of their road games. MVP QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens won 31-17 on the road against the Washington Football Team, a push on the 14-point number. The Ravens are 0-1-1 ATS in their past two after going 2-0 ATS to open the season. The over was the first in four games after three straight under results. Baltimore has failed to cover its past three home games against Cincinnati, too.
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Colts pushed past the Bears by a 19-11 score at Soldier Field, as they have now won and covered three in a row after their opening game loss at Jacksonville. They have tightened up defensively, too. In Week 1 they allowed 27 points, but they have allowed a total of just 29 points in their three-game winning streak, allowing 9.7 PPG. The under has hit in three in a row, too. For the Browns, they are streaking, winning three straight while scoring at least 34 points while the 'over' is also 3-0 during the run. Cleveland has scored 30 or more points in three straight games for the first time since 1968 when they turned the trick seven times.
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Chargers won 16-13 in Week 1, but they have dropped three straight one-score games since. Rookie QB Justin Herbert put up big numbers in a 38-31 loss at Tampa Bay as the 'over' hit for the first time in four games this season. The defense also allowed 38 points, a season high, as they had yielded just 19.0 PPG in the first three. The Saints are averaging 30.8 PPG while yielding 30.8 PPG, so it's no surprise the 'over' is a perfect 4-for-4 to date.
Joe Williams
Overall Notes
The largest underdogs to win straight up
Eagles (+8, ML +300) at 49ers, 25-20
Browns (+3.5, ML +200) at Cowboys, 49-38
Vikings (+3.5, ML +160) at Texans, 31-23
Panthers (+3, ML +145) vs. Cardinals, 31-21
The largest favorites to cover
Seahawks (-4.5) at Dolphins, 31-23
Bills (-3) at Raiders, 30-23
Saints (-3) at Lions, 35-29
The Biggest Disappointment of the Week
Over and under bettors went on a roller coaster ride in the Philadelphia Eagles-San Francisco 49ers game on Sunday Night Football. The Eagles opened up the scoring with a touchdown and two-point conversion before the 49ers answered with a touchdown and standard extra point. There were 15 total points on the board, and the over was trending after 15 minutes. However, the two sides played a scoreless quarter, and the halftime score was 8-7. Under bettors were feeling very good about things with just 25 total points on the board heading into the final quarter.
With just 5:50 left in the game, there were still 32 points on the board until QB Carson Wentz hooked up with recent acquisiton WR Travis Fulgham for a 42-yard tip-toe job down the sideline, making it 18-14 in favor of the Eagles. Just eight seconds later the Eagles scored again, as CFL import LB Alex Singleton stepped in front of an errant QB Nick Mullens pass for a 30-yard interception return for touchdown. All of a sudden under (45.5) went from feeling confident to terrible within a matter of moments.
After the pick-six, the Niners removed Mullens in favor of QB C.J. Beathard, and the latter led a scoring drive to make it 25-20 pending the two-point conversion. Beathard threw a strike to TE George Kittle in the end zone, but the sure-handed receiver who was having a monster game was unable to corral it. The under was hanging on by a half-point, but there was still time left on the clock. The Eagles got the ball back, but were forced to punt just under two minutes, giving San Francisco another chance. The Niners drove down to the Philly 33, and Beathard threw a desperation pass into the end zone which touched hands, but eventually fell out of bounds. Over bettors must've felt like they lost twice.
Total Recall
The lowest total on the board in Week 4 was on Thursday night in the Denver Broncos-New York Jets (41) game. Broncos QB Brett Rypien made his first NFL start and he ended up throwing three interceptions, but he still hang on to win. And the Broncos posted 37 points, nearly taking care of the over themselves in the nine-point victory.
The second-lowest total on the board, and lowest on the Sunday slate, was the Los Angeles Chargers-Tampa Bay Buccaneers (42) cross-country battle. The teams got off to a quick start, as L.A. fired out to a 14-7 lead after 15 minutes, and a 24-14 lead at halftime. The Chargers already had a season-high for points in a single game with another entire half to go. They Bolts were averaging just 17.3 PPG through the first three outings, and the 'under' was 3-0. That changed Sunday, as the Bucs won 38-31.
The highest total on the board was in the Cleveland Browns-Dallas Cowboys (56.5) game, and this total wasn't even close to not cashing. The Browns fired up 31 points in the first half, leading 31-14 at the break. They led 41-14 after 45 minutes, so all that was needed was a field goal or more in the final quarter. That wasn't a problem, as the Cowboys made a furious run in the final 15, outscoring the Browns 24-8. The Browns held on for the 49-38 win, a total of 87 points for the highest-scoring game of the 2020 season. The point total eclipsed the 79 points the Falcons and Cowboys combined for in Week 2.
In the two primetime games we saw the over/under split 1-1, with the Monday night game between the Atlanta Falcons and Green Bay Packers set to lock horns. The rescheduled New England Patriots-Kansas City Chiefs game is technically a primetime game, kicking at 7:05 p.m. ET, but we'll consider it a 'normal' Week 4 game.
So far this season the over is 6-6 (50.0%) across 12 primetime games. In 2019, the 'over' was just 17-31-1 (35.4%) during primetime games.
Looking Ahead to Week 5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Chicago Bears (Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET)
The Buccaneers posted a 38-31 win over the Chargers in Week 4, failing to cover a 7.5-point number just barely. QB Tom Brady threw five touchdowns, becoming the oldest QB in NFL history to throw for five scores in a single game, and he spread the wealth to five different receivers. They have now won three in a row, but they're 2-2 ATS overall. The point total was a season high, and they're averaging 34.5 PPG in two games at the Ray Jay, both over results. On the road, they're 1-1 SU/ATS while going 1-1 on the over/under, too. They're averaging just 26.5 PPG in their two trips so far this season. The Bears were defeated for the first time, falling to 3-1 SU/2-2 ATS. They're 1-1 SU/0-2 ATS in two games at Soldier Field this season, both under results. The Bears are averaging just 14.0 PPG in two home games, and allowing just 16.0 PPG.
Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET)
The Bengals picked up their first win in the QB Joe Burrow era, topping the Jacksonville Jaguars. Cincinnati has now covered three straight games, including both of their road games. MVP QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens won 31-17 on the road against the Washington Football Team, a push on the 14-point number. The Ravens are 0-1-1 ATS in their past two after going 2-0 ATS to open the season. The over was the first in four games after three straight under results. Baltimore has failed to cover its past three home games against Cincinnati, too.
Indianapolis Colts at Cleveland Browns (Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET)
The Colts pushed past the Bears by a 19-11 score at Soldier Field, as they have now won and covered three in a row after their opening game loss at Jacksonville. They have tightened up defensively, too. In Week 1 they allowed 27 points, but they have allowed a total of just 29 points in their three-game winning streak, allowing 9.7 PPG. The under has hit in three in a row, too. For the Browns, they are streaking, winning three straight while scoring at least 34 points while the 'over' is also 3-0 during the run. Cleveland has scored 30 or more points in three straight games for the first time since 1968 when they turned the trick seven times.
Los Angeles Chargers at New Orleans Saints (Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET)
The Chargers won 16-13 in Week 1, but they have dropped three straight one-score games since. Rookie QB Justin Herbert put up big numbers in a 38-31 loss at Tampa Bay as the 'over' hit for the first time in four games this season. The defense also allowed 38 points, a season high, as they had yielded just 19.0 PPG in the first three. The Saints are averaging 30.8 PPG while yielding 30.8 PPG, so it's no surprise the 'over' is a perfect 4-for-4 to date.
NFL betting tips for Week 5: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan
The Seahawks and Vikings have a total of 57.5 points for their Sunday Night Football shootout in Week 5. Since 2006, totals of 57.5 points or higher have gone 7-1 Over/Under.
The early bird may get the worm, but the late worm avoids getting turned into bird shit. It’s all about timing and in NFL betting, getting the best of the numbers often takes perfect timing.
We scan the freshly unpacked NFL Week 5 odds and monitor the early action, giving you our best betting tips when it comes to which spreads and totals you should bet now and which ones you should bet later.
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team (+9): Bet now
The Rams make their third cross-country trip in four weeks when they come to the nation’s capital to take on the Football Team. Los Angeles looked lethargic in its slim win over the New York Giants at home on Sunday, winning 17-9 but failing to cover the lofty 13.5-point spread.
Washington did just enough to cover as a 14.5-point home underdog against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, sneaking in the backdoor with a late score in the fourth quarter. The Football Team opened as big as +9.5 for this Week 5 game and early money bumped it down a half a point.
As of Sunday evening (9:30 p.m. ET), Washington is +9 with the juice tipping to -115 at some books, indicating that this could come off the key numbers and drop to +8.5 with early play on the home side. If you’re fading the Rams’ frequent flyer miles, jump on Washington now.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Houston Texans: Bet later
The Texans are the most disappointing team of 2020 so far. Sure, it may not be fair to bash Houston based on its opening schedule. But after taking on the likes of Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, losing to Minnesota at home in Week 4 was pretty damning.
The 0-4 Texans opened as 6.5-point home chalk hosting Jacksonville in Week 5 and immediately play came in on the hungry home side. Most books are either dealing hefty vig on Houston -6.5 or have already gone to -7. The Jaguars obviously took advantage of opponents’ lack of preparation in the opening two weeks of the season (2-0 ATS) and have fallen back to earth with two straight losses SU and ATS.
Jacksonville had injuries on both sides of the ball in Week 4, but if you’ve been burned bad by the Texans so far this season and can’t bring yourself to bet on them again, wait this out and see if you can get the Jags +7 or higher.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (Over 57.5): Bet now
Totals continue to climb in the 2020 season, with scoring on a record pace through four weeks. The Week 5 Sunday Night Football total is teetering into that magic Over/Under range. Going back to 2006, totals of 57.5 points or more have gone 7-1 Over/Under.
We know what we’re getting from these two teams: a whole lot of points and not much push back. The Vikings apparently have their offensive wrinkles ironed out, scoring 30 and 31 points in the past two weeks after posting only 11 in Week 2. Dalvin Cook is a fantasy god and WR Justin Jefferson is giving his old LSU quarterback a run for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
And then there’s Russell Wilson. The Seahawks had a bad day at the office in Week 4 and still scored 31 points against Miami. Seattle’s explosive attack should fest on a banged-up Minnesota defense ranked 29th versus the pass. In fact, the only other team to allow more passing plays of 20-plus yards than Minnesota (19) is… Seattle (20).
Grab the Over and enjoy the show Sunday night.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets (Under 47): Bet later
Are we still convinced that the Cardinals have a great offense? Arizona has all the pieces on paper. Well, it has Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. But this is Year 2 under Kliff Kingsbury, and the points were supposed to be falling from the sky. But instead, there’s a scoring drought in the desert, with the Cardinals averaging a pedestrian 24.5 points entering Week 5.
Arizona plays its second straight road game on Sunday, this time traveling across the country for a 1 p.m. ET start in East Rutherford. The Jets are coming off a WTF Thursday nighter with the Broncos, which saw a combined 65 points scored versus a Over/Under total of 41. New York was responsible for 28 of those points but they came against a decimated Denver defense.
Arizona’s stop unit is holding this team together – and that’s saying something after allowing 31 points to Carolina this past weekend. The Week 5 total opened as low as 46.5 points and has climbed to 47. If you’re on the Under in Jersey, wait it out and see if you can get this any higher before clicking submit.
Jason Logan
The Seahawks and Vikings have a total of 57.5 points for their Sunday Night Football shootout in Week 5. Since 2006, totals of 57.5 points or higher have gone 7-1 Over/Under.
The early bird may get the worm, but the late worm avoids getting turned into bird shit. It’s all about timing and in NFL betting, getting the best of the numbers often takes perfect timing.
We scan the freshly unpacked NFL Week 5 odds and monitor the early action, giving you our best betting tips when it comes to which spreads and totals you should bet now and which ones you should bet later.
Los Angeles Rams at Washington Football Team (+9): Bet now
The Rams make their third cross-country trip in four weeks when they come to the nation’s capital to take on the Football Team. Los Angeles looked lethargic in its slim win over the New York Giants at home on Sunday, winning 17-9 but failing to cover the lofty 13.5-point spread.
Washington did just enough to cover as a 14.5-point home underdog against the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday, sneaking in the backdoor with a late score in the fourth quarter. The Football Team opened as big as +9.5 for this Week 5 game and early money bumped it down a half a point.
As of Sunday evening (9:30 p.m. ET), Washington is +9 with the juice tipping to -115 at some books, indicating that this could come off the key numbers and drop to +8.5 with early play on the home side. If you’re fading the Rams’ frequent flyer miles, jump on Washington now.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+6.5) at Houston Texans: Bet later
The Texans are the most disappointing team of 2020 so far. Sure, it may not be fair to bash Houston based on its opening schedule. But after taking on the likes of Kansas City, Baltimore and Pittsburgh, losing to Minnesota at home in Week 4 was pretty damning.
The 0-4 Texans opened as 6.5-point home chalk hosting Jacksonville in Week 5 and immediately play came in on the hungry home side. Most books are either dealing hefty vig on Houston -6.5 or have already gone to -7. The Jaguars obviously took advantage of opponents’ lack of preparation in the opening two weeks of the season (2-0 ATS) and have fallen back to earth with two straight losses SU and ATS.
Jacksonville had injuries on both sides of the ball in Week 4, but if you’ve been burned bad by the Texans so far this season and can’t bring yourself to bet on them again, wait this out and see if you can get the Jags +7 or higher.
Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (Over 57.5): Bet now
Totals continue to climb in the 2020 season, with scoring on a record pace through four weeks. The Week 5 Sunday Night Football total is teetering into that magic Over/Under range. Going back to 2006, totals of 57.5 points or more have gone 7-1 Over/Under.
We know what we’re getting from these two teams: a whole lot of points and not much push back. The Vikings apparently have their offensive wrinkles ironed out, scoring 30 and 31 points in the past two weeks after posting only 11 in Week 2. Dalvin Cook is a fantasy god and WR Justin Jefferson is giving his old LSU quarterback a run for Offensive Rookie of the Year.
And then there’s Russell Wilson. The Seahawks had a bad day at the office in Week 4 and still scored 31 points against Miami. Seattle’s explosive attack should fest on a banged-up Minnesota defense ranked 29th versus the pass. In fact, the only other team to allow more passing plays of 20-plus yards than Minnesota (19) is… Seattle (20).
Grab the Over and enjoy the show Sunday night.
Arizona Cardinals at New York Jets (Under 47): Bet later
Are we still convinced that the Cardinals have a great offense? Arizona has all the pieces on paper. Well, it has Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins. But this is Year 2 under Kliff Kingsbury, and the points were supposed to be falling from the sky. But instead, there’s a scoring drought in the desert, with the Cardinals averaging a pedestrian 24.5 points entering Week 5.
Arizona plays its second straight road game on Sunday, this time traveling across the country for a 1 p.m. ET start in East Rutherford. The Jets are coming off a WTF Thursday nighter with the Broncos, which saw a combined 65 points scored versus a Over/Under total of 41. New York was responsible for 28 of those points but they came against a decimated Denver defense.
Arizona’s stop unit is holding this team together – and that’s saying something after allowing 31 points to Carolina this past weekend. The Week 5 total opened as low as 46.5 points and has climbed to 47. If you’re on the Under in Jersey, wait it out and see if you can get this any higher before clicking submit.
Hot & Not Report - Week 5
Matt Blunt
Week 4 was a wild one from start to finish in the NFL. And while the Tennessee Titans gave all football fans a quick reminder that the dangers of the world are still out there, hopefully the league can add an extra week or two at the end of the season to help deal with potential schedule disruptions going forward.
But as we saw during the MLB season this year, teams that get hit by the virus can eventually go on playing with minimal hindrance, and hopefully all the Titans miss is this one game from Week 4.
Tennessee's betting options in Week 5 are going to come up a bit later though, as this week's piece deals with the streaky runs we've seen from all NFL teams so far this year in one specific situation: the week before they go prime time.
Who's Hot
NFL teams are a combined 12-4 ATS (75%) this year in the week before playing a Sunday Night or Monday Night Football game
This run only counts the traditional prime time slots for games (specifically not the Patriots/Chiefs game that got moved) and it's been quite a run. Split up between days it's still dead even, as the records sit at 6-2 ATS for teams before a SNF game and 6-2 ATS before playing on Monday night.
What's more is that 11 of these 16 teams have put up at least 30 points in those contests before their date with the bright lights, as 'overs' continue to connect at a torrid pace this NFL season.
Not all of these 16 games have turned into great full game 'over' plays though, as it probably should be treated as more of a team total thing for those that are interested.
I mean just on Sunday's action alone we saw all four teams involved in Week 5's SNF and MNF games – Minnesota at Seattle on SNF and L.A. Chargers at New Orleans on MNF – all put up 31 or more points.
So what does this mean for this week's action?
Who do you Follow?
Rams
49ers
Cardinals
Cowboys
Well, to start, it means taking a peek at the Week 6 schedule:
Week 6 SNF - L.A. Rams at San Francisco
Week 6 MNF - Arizona at Dallas
I'm pretty sure there isn't much convincing needed to anyone that's seen a Dallas box score this year to consider a Dallas team total and/or full game 'over' play for Week 5 before that MNF showcase, as this team can't stop a thing on defense and have their offense averaging over 500 yards per game.
The Cowboys host the New York Giants in Week 5 so it's definitely the right opponent for this Cowboys team to potentially get back on track and in the ATS win column for the first time this year, but that's still a lofty number to lay at home with a 1-3 SU team.
Arizona spends Week 5 in their own potential “get right” game too when they visit the New York Jets and the disaster that they've been this year. New York has allowed 30+ to each of their last three opponents, so an 'over' on the Cardinals team total may be a great betting option in Week 5 as well.
The Rams and 49ers also have their own potential “get right” games on tap in Week 5 with SF hosting Miami, and L.A. travelling to Washington. Obviously any SF consideration should be held off on until injury news on their quarterback potentially returning comes down, and I'm sure the Rams offense would like to get back to putting up big numbers after they only managed 17 points against those hapless Giants.
Again team totals 'over' for these two teams might be the better betting path.
That's because all four teams that fit this scenario in Week 5 – Arizona, Dallas, LA, and SF – all have Week 5 opening numbers of them laying at least a TD against their lesser foes. Big spreads like that are definitely going to put this 12-4 ATS run to the test with those big spreads, especially with the Cardinals and Rams laying that chalk away from home.
I would venture a guess that at least one of these teams ends up falling short against the number, but betting against a 12-4 run is a choice every individual has to make for themselves.
Who's Not
NFL teams are a combined 1-7 (12.5%) SU and 2-5-1 ATS (29%) in the week before playing a Thursday Night Football game
The exact opposite seems to be true for those teams that get their prime time spotlight on Thursdays, as now seven of the eight teams going into a TNF game have lost outright the Sunday before. The lone winner was Tampa Bay's 38-31 win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, and even that result was not looking good for the Bucs for the majority of that game.
Tampa's opponent this Thursday is Chicago and they fell to Indy on Sunday, while Cincinnati and Cleveland each started the year 0-1 SU before meeting on TNF in Week 2.
Miami and Jacksonville followed suit in losing their games on Sunday before squaring off on TNF in Week 3 – it was the Dolphins and Jags who account for the two ATS wins in this role – and Denver and the Jets got blown out in Week 3 before they entertained everyone with that sloppy looking shootout on TNF this past week.
Who do you Fade?
Buffalo Bills
Kansas City Chiefs
All of that brings me back to the Tennessee Titans though, as they are scheduled to host Buffalo in Week 5 before the Bills face the defending champs in Kansas City on TNF in Week 6.
Week 6 TNF - Kansas City at Buffalo
If the Titans are able to go in Week 5 against Buffalo, this trend suggests that fading the 4-0 SU Buffalo Bills would be the way to go, although who's healthy enough to go for Tennessee is always going to be a big question hanging over the week.
The other team to fade here would be those Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 5 game against Las Vegas, and after opening as -12 favorites, going the outright route in fading the Chiefs won't be for the risk averse.
Vegas is going to be getting a huge ML price in this spot, and like the “Hot” trends above, this scenario will really put this run to the test.
Matt Blunt
Week 4 was a wild one from start to finish in the NFL. And while the Tennessee Titans gave all football fans a quick reminder that the dangers of the world are still out there, hopefully the league can add an extra week or two at the end of the season to help deal with potential schedule disruptions going forward.
But as we saw during the MLB season this year, teams that get hit by the virus can eventually go on playing with minimal hindrance, and hopefully all the Titans miss is this one game from Week 4.
Tennessee's betting options in Week 5 are going to come up a bit later though, as this week's piece deals with the streaky runs we've seen from all NFL teams so far this year in one specific situation: the week before they go prime time.
Who's Hot
NFL teams are a combined 12-4 ATS (75%) this year in the week before playing a Sunday Night or Monday Night Football game
This run only counts the traditional prime time slots for games (specifically not the Patriots/Chiefs game that got moved) and it's been quite a run. Split up between days it's still dead even, as the records sit at 6-2 ATS for teams before a SNF game and 6-2 ATS before playing on Monday night.
What's more is that 11 of these 16 teams have put up at least 30 points in those contests before their date with the bright lights, as 'overs' continue to connect at a torrid pace this NFL season.
Not all of these 16 games have turned into great full game 'over' plays though, as it probably should be treated as more of a team total thing for those that are interested.
I mean just on Sunday's action alone we saw all four teams involved in Week 5's SNF and MNF games – Minnesota at Seattle on SNF and L.A. Chargers at New Orleans on MNF – all put up 31 or more points.
So what does this mean for this week's action?
Who do you Follow?
Rams
49ers
Cardinals
Cowboys
Well, to start, it means taking a peek at the Week 6 schedule:
Week 6 SNF - L.A. Rams at San Francisco
Week 6 MNF - Arizona at Dallas
I'm pretty sure there isn't much convincing needed to anyone that's seen a Dallas box score this year to consider a Dallas team total and/or full game 'over' play for Week 5 before that MNF showcase, as this team can't stop a thing on defense and have their offense averaging over 500 yards per game.
The Cowboys host the New York Giants in Week 5 so it's definitely the right opponent for this Cowboys team to potentially get back on track and in the ATS win column for the first time this year, but that's still a lofty number to lay at home with a 1-3 SU team.
Arizona spends Week 5 in their own potential “get right” game too when they visit the New York Jets and the disaster that they've been this year. New York has allowed 30+ to each of their last three opponents, so an 'over' on the Cardinals team total may be a great betting option in Week 5 as well.
The Rams and 49ers also have their own potential “get right” games on tap in Week 5 with SF hosting Miami, and L.A. travelling to Washington. Obviously any SF consideration should be held off on until injury news on their quarterback potentially returning comes down, and I'm sure the Rams offense would like to get back to putting up big numbers after they only managed 17 points against those hapless Giants.
Again team totals 'over' for these two teams might be the better betting path.
That's because all four teams that fit this scenario in Week 5 – Arizona, Dallas, LA, and SF – all have Week 5 opening numbers of them laying at least a TD against their lesser foes. Big spreads like that are definitely going to put this 12-4 ATS run to the test with those big spreads, especially with the Cardinals and Rams laying that chalk away from home.
I would venture a guess that at least one of these teams ends up falling short against the number, but betting against a 12-4 run is a choice every individual has to make for themselves.
Who's Not
NFL teams are a combined 1-7 (12.5%) SU and 2-5-1 ATS (29%) in the week before playing a Thursday Night Football game
The exact opposite seems to be true for those teams that get their prime time spotlight on Thursdays, as now seven of the eight teams going into a TNF game have lost outright the Sunday before. The lone winner was Tampa Bay's 38-31 win over the Los Angeles Chargers on Sunday, and even that result was not looking good for the Bucs for the majority of that game.
Tampa's opponent this Thursday is Chicago and they fell to Indy on Sunday, while Cincinnati and Cleveland each started the year 0-1 SU before meeting on TNF in Week 2.
Miami and Jacksonville followed suit in losing their games on Sunday before squaring off on TNF in Week 3 – it was the Dolphins and Jags who account for the two ATS wins in this role – and Denver and the Jets got blown out in Week 3 before they entertained everyone with that sloppy looking shootout on TNF this past week.
Who do you Fade?
Buffalo Bills
Kansas City Chiefs
All of that brings me back to the Tennessee Titans though, as they are scheduled to host Buffalo in Week 5 before the Bills face the defending champs in Kansas City on TNF in Week 6.
Week 6 TNF - Kansas City at Buffalo
If the Titans are able to go in Week 5 against Buffalo, this trend suggests that fading the 4-0 SU Buffalo Bills would be the way to go, although who's healthy enough to go for Tennessee is always going to be a big question hanging over the week.
The other team to fade here would be those Kansas City Chiefs in their Week 5 game against Las Vegas, and after opening as -12 favorites, going the outright route in fading the Chiefs won't be for the risk averse.
Vegas is going to be getting a huge ML price in this spot, and like the “Hot” trends above, this scenario will really put this run to the test.
Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall
Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 8 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 16 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Sunday, Oct. 11
CAROLINA at ATLANTA
Into Green bay last Monday, Falcs 0-3 vs. line TY, though they’ve won and covered last five in series.
Atlanta also “over” first three in 2020.
Panthers “over” 14-6-1last 21 since late 2018 (2-1-1 “over” for Rhule).
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Falcons, based on “totals” and series trends.
LAS VEGAS at KANSAS CITY
Into Patriots game last Monday, Chiefs 12-0 SU, 11-1 vs. line last 12 since mid 2019.
KC has won last 5 SU vs. Raiders and 4-1 vs. line in those games.
Also covered four straight in series at Arrowhead after road-oriented trends prior.
Raiders “over” first four in 2020 after 6-1 “under” to close 2019.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to “over,” based on team and ‘totals” trends.
DENVER at NEW ENGLAND
Belichick 15-6 vs. line as reg season home chalk since early 2017 (2-0 in 2020).
Broncos 7-3 last ten as dog for Fangio.
Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on team trends.
L.A. RAMS at WASHINGTON
McVay narrowly failed to get cover at Bills, so he’s 7-1 SU and vs. line last eight early kickoffs in Eastern Time Zone or London.
Rams are also 8-3 vs. points last 11 as visitor.
Football Team on 7-13-1 spread skid since late 2018, 3-7-1 last eleven vs. line at FedEx.
Washington “over” 6-1 last seven, and Rams “over” last four away.
Tech Edge: Rams and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON
Jags have covered 4 of last 6 as dog, though Houston has won last 3 SU in series, covering three.
But Texans no wins or covers last five in reg season, 2-8-1 overall last eleven vs. line since late 2019.
Last four “under” in series.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Jags, based on “totals” and recent trends.
BUFFALO at TENNESSEE
Bills covered at Raiders but still just 1-4 vs. line last five away. Though they have won and covered last two years vs. Titans.
Bills “over” all four in 2020 after “under” 15-4 previous 19.
Titans 12-4 SU with Tannehill at QB and 3-0 SU but 0-3 vs. line in 2020.
Tennessee also on 12-4 “over” run.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Titans, based on “totals’ and team trends.
ARIZONA at N.Y. JETS
Jets 0-4 SU and vs. line after Denver loss.
Kingsbury 12-7-1 vs. spread since taking over Cards LY.
Arizona surprising 3-0-1 “under” in 2020.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on recent trends.
PHILADELPHIA at PITTSBURGH
Into last Sunday night at 49ers, Birds no wins or covers last four since late 2019, also 7-13 vs. spread since beginning of 2019, so perhaps that was a corner-turning win and cover at Levi's.
Even with SF win, Philly just 14-23 vs. line since Super Bowl win over Pats.
Tech Edge: Steelers, based on recent trends.
CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE
Ravens had 14-game SU reg season win streak snapped by Chiefs.
Also were 11-1 vs. line previous 12 reg season games prior to KC.
Cincy has actually covered 4 of last 5 in series though lost last meeting 49-13 in 2019.
Bengals 10-3 last 13 as visiting dog.
Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens, based on team trends.
MIAMI at SAN FRANCISCO
Dolphins 11-5 last 16 vs. spread since mid 2019 for Flores.
Miami also 6-2 last 8 as road dog.
Dolphins also “over” 8-3 last 11 since mid 2019 (2-2 “over” in 2020).
After Eagles last Sunday night, Niners still 7-4 “over” their last 11, but just 3-5-1 last 9 as Levi’s chalk.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Dolphins, based on “totals” and team trends.
N.Y. GIANTS at DALLAS
Cowboys have now won and covered last six in series.
G-Men however are 2-0 as road dog TY and now 11-3 in role since 2018.
Dallas 0-4 vs. line in 2020.
Tech Edge: Slight to Giants, based on team trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at CLEVELAND
Browns have now covered alst two after 5-12-1 spread skid, and are 4-2-1 last 7 vs. line at home.
Colts, however, have won and covered last three in 2020.
Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on recent trends.
MINNESOTA at SEATTLE
Vikes have notched a pair of spread covers in a row, though did lose on Monday, last Dec. 2 at Seattle (37-30).
Hawks have squeezed out a couple of home covers in their 3-0 start, also “over” 4-0-1 since late 2019.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.
Bruce Marshall
Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 8 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 16 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Sunday, Oct. 11
CAROLINA at ATLANTA
Into Green bay last Monday, Falcs 0-3 vs. line TY, though they’ve won and covered last five in series.
Atlanta also “over” first three in 2020.
Panthers “over” 14-6-1last 21 since late 2018 (2-1-1 “over” for Rhule).
Tech Edge: “Over” and slight to Falcons, based on “totals” and series trends.
LAS VEGAS at KANSAS CITY
Into Patriots game last Monday, Chiefs 12-0 SU, 11-1 vs. line last 12 since mid 2019.
KC has won last 5 SU vs. Raiders and 4-1 vs. line in those games.
Also covered four straight in series at Arrowhead after road-oriented trends prior.
Raiders “over” first four in 2020 after 6-1 “under” to close 2019.
Tech Edge: Chiefs and slight to “over,” based on team and ‘totals” trends.
DENVER at NEW ENGLAND
Belichick 15-6 vs. line as reg season home chalk since early 2017 (2-0 in 2020).
Broncos 7-3 last ten as dog for Fangio.
Tech Edge: Slight to Patriots, based on team trends.
L.A. RAMS at WASHINGTON
McVay narrowly failed to get cover at Bills, so he’s 7-1 SU and vs. line last eight early kickoffs in Eastern Time Zone or London.
Rams are also 8-3 vs. points last 11 as visitor.
Football Team on 7-13-1 spread skid since late 2018, 3-7-1 last eleven vs. line at FedEx.
Washington “over” 6-1 last seven, and Rams “over” last four away.
Tech Edge: Rams and “over,” based on team and “totals” trends.
JACKSONVILLE at HOUSTON
Jags have covered 4 of last 6 as dog, though Houston has won last 3 SU in series, covering three.
But Texans no wins or covers last five in reg season, 2-8-1 overall last eleven vs. line since late 2019.
Last four “under” in series.
Tech Edge: “Under” and Jags, based on “totals” and recent trends.
BUFFALO at TENNESSEE
Bills covered at Raiders but still just 1-4 vs. line last five away. Though they have won and covered last two years vs. Titans.
Bills “over” all four in 2020 after “under” 15-4 previous 19.
Titans 12-4 SU with Tannehill at QB and 3-0 SU but 0-3 vs. line in 2020.
Tennessee also on 12-4 “over” run.
Tech Edge: Slight to “over” and Titans, based on “totals’ and team trends.
ARIZONA at N.Y. JETS
Jets 0-4 SU and vs. line after Denver loss.
Kingsbury 12-7-1 vs. spread since taking over Cards LY.
Arizona surprising 3-0-1 “under” in 2020.
Tech Edge: Cards, based on recent trends.
PHILADELPHIA at PITTSBURGH
Into last Sunday night at 49ers, Birds no wins or covers last four since late 2019, also 7-13 vs. spread since beginning of 2019, so perhaps that was a corner-turning win and cover at Levi's.
Even with SF win, Philly just 14-23 vs. line since Super Bowl win over Pats.
Tech Edge: Steelers, based on recent trends.
CINCINNATI at BALTIMORE
Ravens had 14-game SU reg season win streak snapped by Chiefs.
Also were 11-1 vs. line previous 12 reg season games prior to KC.
Cincy has actually covered 4 of last 5 in series though lost last meeting 49-13 in 2019.
Bengals 10-3 last 13 as visiting dog.
Tech Edge: Slight to Ravens, based on team trends.
MIAMI at SAN FRANCISCO
Dolphins 11-5 last 16 vs. spread since mid 2019 for Flores.
Miami also 6-2 last 8 as road dog.
Dolphins also “over” 8-3 last 11 since mid 2019 (2-2 “over” in 2020).
After Eagles last Sunday night, Niners still 7-4 “over” their last 11, but just 3-5-1 last 9 as Levi’s chalk.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Dolphins, based on “totals” and team trends.
N.Y. GIANTS at DALLAS
Cowboys have now won and covered last six in series.
G-Men however are 2-0 as road dog TY and now 11-3 in role since 2018.
Dallas 0-4 vs. line in 2020.
Tech Edge: Slight to Giants, based on team trends.
INDIANAPOLIS at CLEVELAND
Browns have now covered alst two after 5-12-1 spread skid, and are 4-2-1 last 7 vs. line at home.
Colts, however, have won and covered last three in 2020.
Tech Edge: Slight to Colts, based on recent trends.
MINNESOTA at SEATTLE
Vikes have notched a pair of spread covers in a row, though did lose on Monday, last Dec. 2 at Seattle (37-30).
Hawks have squeezed out a couple of home covers in their 3-0 start, also “over” 4-0-1 since late 2019.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.
Jerry Shottenkirk: My Golden Hour Pick 4 Ticket for Sunday
October 10, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
The Golden Hour Pick 4, which chains together the last two races on the Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields programs, could be the vehicle to end the race week in a good (and winning) order.
The wager has a $1 minimum (15-percent takeout) and includes, in order, Santa Anita’s eighth race, Golden Gate’s eighth, and Santa Anita’s ninth before concluding with Golden Gate’s finale.
Sunday’s suggested ticket is $48 and includes a single: Colour Me Happy in Golden Gate’s eighth.
Here’s a look at the play on Sunday’s card:
Santa Anita Race 8 (7:30 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)
DETECTIVE BERNARDO was third the only time he was in for a maiden tag, and he was closing mildly going 5.5 furlongs. Today he gets six furlongs and can get a ground-saving trip.
FROM THE GET GO is set to make his career debut with a long list of works, including bullets at Santa Anita and Del Mar. He’s Kentucky-bred but is eligible because he’s California sired. Looks like a good spot for his first try.
COZY BEAR improved to fourth in his second attempt and it looks like he’ll welcome the six furlongs after twice going 5.5 furlongs.
WEDDING GROOM had different styles in his two races and he had the same results in each, finishing second. He came from off the pace at Los Alamitos and then set the pace at Del Mar. Experience and good form make him a player here.
Golden Gate Fields Race 8 (7:45 p.m. ET, starter allowance)
COLOUR ME HAPPY could be the make-or-break runner on this suggested ticket and comes out of one of the strangest races in recent memory. In his last race he inherited lead when the rider of the lone leader misjudged the finish line. Colour Me Happy took over and dug in for the win.
He’s a single as he takes his four-race win streak into the 1 7-8-mile turf race. William Antongeorgi has been aboard the Blaine Wright trainee in his last three.
Santa Anita Race 9 (8 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)
CLAYTON DELANEY tried stakes company two races back after a maiden win. Comes out of a races that had fast fractions and he has a good shot to get on or very near the front end.
FLY TO MARS has seen much better days in his career and continues his steady move down the class ladder. He was second in a pair of Grade 2 races in the Del Mar Mile and City of Hope Mile, back-to-back, in 2018, and had nearly two years off before a fifth-place finish in a starter allowance. He followed with a seventh last time. He goes against California-breds and could be at level at which can revisit good form.
COALINGA ROAD was up in time at Del Mar and was second at Santa Anita in his first turf run. Should have a big presence on the front end today.
BRIX is much improved since moving to the Richard Baltas barn three races back. He won his first two (after nine failed maiden attempts) for the new stable. Has finished well lately and the pacesetters could set the table for him.
DREAMER’S REALITY ran poorly in is first two this year but he’d been off for nearly 2.5 years. This is his third start off the long layoff and most recently showed signs of life with a sharp five-furlong work.
GOLDEN DOUGHNUT has competed in better races and should benefit from turning back in distance from two turns to 5.5 furlongs. He’ll have to reach his top stride early, but some of his longer races had fractions that were comparable to what you’d see in sprints.
Golden Gate Fields Race 9 (8:15 p.m., ET, claiming)
MY LUCKY MARK was claimed by the Jonathan Wong and ran third in a fast sprint. He stretches out to two turns and likely will be a
strong force on the front end.
KLONDIKE CREEK ran very well in two appearances over the Golden Gate Tapeta track, once with a runner-up finish in December and then for with a win in February. He can stalk the leader and could benefit from running against higher levels in his two races.
Here’s the suggested ticket for $1 Golden Hour Pick 4 on Sunday:
SA 8) #1 Detective Bernardo, #7 From the Get Go, #8 Cozy Bear, #9 Wedding Groom.
GG 8) #1 Colour Me Happy.
SA 9) #4 Clayton Delaney, #6 Fly to Mars, #7 Coalinga Road, #10 Brix, #11 Dreamer’s Reality, #12 Golden Doughnut.
GG 9) #2 My Lucky Mark, #5 Klondike Creek.
$1 Golden Hour Pick 4: 1-7-8-9 with 1 with 4-6-7-10-11-12 with 2-5 ($48).
October 10, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
The Golden Hour Pick 4, which chains together the last two races on the Santa Anita and Golden Gate Fields programs, could be the vehicle to end the race week in a good (and winning) order.
The wager has a $1 minimum (15-percent takeout) and includes, in order, Santa Anita’s eighth race, Golden Gate’s eighth, and Santa Anita’s ninth before concluding with Golden Gate’s finale.
Sunday’s suggested ticket is $48 and includes a single: Colour Me Happy in Golden Gate’s eighth.
Here’s a look at the play on Sunday’s card:
Santa Anita Race 8 (7:30 p.m. ET, maiden claiming)
DETECTIVE BERNARDO was third the only time he was in for a maiden tag, and he was closing mildly going 5.5 furlongs. Today he gets six furlongs and can get a ground-saving trip.
FROM THE GET GO is set to make his career debut with a long list of works, including bullets at Santa Anita and Del Mar. He’s Kentucky-bred but is eligible because he’s California sired. Looks like a good spot for his first try.
COZY BEAR improved to fourth in his second attempt and it looks like he’ll welcome the six furlongs after twice going 5.5 furlongs.
WEDDING GROOM had different styles in his two races and he had the same results in each, finishing second. He came from off the pace at Los Alamitos and then set the pace at Del Mar. Experience and good form make him a player here.
Golden Gate Fields Race 8 (7:45 p.m. ET, starter allowance)
COLOUR ME HAPPY could be the make-or-break runner on this suggested ticket and comes out of one of the strangest races in recent memory. In his last race he inherited lead when the rider of the lone leader misjudged the finish line. Colour Me Happy took over and dug in for the win.
He’s a single as he takes his four-race win streak into the 1 7-8-mile turf race. William Antongeorgi has been aboard the Blaine Wright trainee in his last three.
Santa Anita Race 9 (8 p.m. ET, allowance optional claiming)
CLAYTON DELANEY tried stakes company two races back after a maiden win. Comes out of a races that had fast fractions and he has a good shot to get on or very near the front end.
FLY TO MARS has seen much better days in his career and continues his steady move down the class ladder. He was second in a pair of Grade 2 races in the Del Mar Mile and City of Hope Mile, back-to-back, in 2018, and had nearly two years off before a fifth-place finish in a starter allowance. He followed with a seventh last time. He goes against California-breds and could be at level at which can revisit good form.
COALINGA ROAD was up in time at Del Mar and was second at Santa Anita in his first turf run. Should have a big presence on the front end today.
BRIX is much improved since moving to the Richard Baltas barn three races back. He won his first two (after nine failed maiden attempts) for the new stable. Has finished well lately and the pacesetters could set the table for him.
DREAMER’S REALITY ran poorly in is first two this year but he’d been off for nearly 2.5 years. This is his third start off the long layoff and most recently showed signs of life with a sharp five-furlong work.
GOLDEN DOUGHNUT has competed in better races and should benefit from turning back in distance from two turns to 5.5 furlongs. He’ll have to reach his top stride early, but some of his longer races had fractions that were comparable to what you’d see in sprints.
Golden Gate Fields Race 9 (8:15 p.m., ET, claiming)
MY LUCKY MARK was claimed by the Jonathan Wong and ran third in a fast sprint. He stretches out to two turns and likely will be a
strong force on the front end.
KLONDIKE CREEK ran very well in two appearances over the Golden Gate Tapeta track, once with a runner-up finish in December and then for with a win in February. He can stalk the leader and could benefit from running against higher levels in his two races.
Here’s the suggested ticket for $1 Golden Hour Pick 4 on Sunday:
SA 8) #1 Detective Bernardo, #7 From the Get Go, #8 Cozy Bear, #9 Wedding Groom.
GG 8) #1 Colour Me Happy.
SA 9) #4 Clayton Delaney, #6 Fly to Mars, #7 Coalinga Road, #10 Brix, #11 Dreamer’s Reality, #12 Golden Doughnut.
GG 9) #2 My Lucky Mark, #5 Klondike Creek.
$1 Golden Hour Pick 4: 1-7-8-9 with 1 with 4-6-7-10-11-12 with 2-5 ($48).
Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/11/20
October 11, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Empress of Fire; 5-On Mars
View Video Analysis
Forecast: On Mars is improving with racing – she earned a career-top speed figure when second vs. similar last month at Del Mar – and should continue to step forward at this nine furlong trip that she seems certain to enjoy. A deep closing daughter of Vronsky, the P. D’Amato-trained filly likely will rally against the grain but should be good enough to produce the last run. Empress of Fire, a beaten choice when sixth in the same race On Mars exits, draws inside and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip. In a pace-less affair, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see her on the lead, and if left alone without pressure the P. Eurton-trained daughter of He Be Fire N Ice could take this group a very long way. We’ll prefer On Mars on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Mystery Man; 4-Seiche
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Mystery Man shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and has the pedigree to move up over a distance of ground, so we’re expecting the son of Violence to produce a career top effort in this maiden special weight main track mile affair. The R. Mandella-trained colt continues to impress in the a.m. and retains M. Smith, so if he’s going to develop into a useful type, this is a race he’s supposed to be able to win. Sieche, in the frame in both starts and second at this trip in a similar affair at Del Mar, will be the one to beat if he can slow down during the early stages. The Super Saver gelding blazed away in :21 4/5 and :45 4/5 and paid the price in the final furlong; today he’ll likely have a much easier time of it up front. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Mystery Man.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Psycho Dar; 4-Mystery Messenger
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Psycho Dar just won in good style over this course and distance when facing $40,000 foes and today seeks a repeat off relatively short rest while dropping to the $32,000 level. Normally this would constitute an unhealthy pattern but we suspect trainer S. Miyadi is simply trying to strike while the iron is hot. The Storm Wolf gelding likely will be on or near the lead again from his rail post and if he can turn it two alike, he’ll be hard to beat. Mystery Messenger has the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle and won going short on the local lawn earlier this year. With a little help up front, the Point of Entry gelding could pose a serious threat from the top of the lane to the wire. Both should be used on your rolling exotic tickets.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Paid Informant; 5-Li’l Grazen
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Li’l Grazen just demolished a $20,000 state-bred optional claiming field while equaling her career top speed figure and was promptly claimed by M. Ortiz (solid with the angle), who raises the veteran mare to the $40,000 level while tackling open first-level allowance company. Drawn comfortably outside and first or second in seven of 13 career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the daughter of Grazen should be tough right back despite the class hike. Based on her interior fractions, she appears to be the quickest of the quick. If a speed duel develops, look for Paid Informant to be the most dangerous of the closers. A good runner-up behind the unbeaten Magic At Midnight last time out, she’s facing nobody that tough today and if the lightly-raced daughter of Into Mischief continues her improving pattern, she could easily mow ‘em all down late. We’ll give Li’l Grazen a slight edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:11 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Siena Silk; 8-Constantia
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Constantia finished eighth but beaten less than three lengths in a maiden special weight affair over this course and distance last month and this class drop into the maiden $50,000 ranks – her proper level – should allow the daughter of Munnings to finally earn her diploma. A good runner-up effort in a similar event at Del Mar in late August beats this field if she repeats it. Siena Silk was given a run sprinting on turf in her debut at Del Mar last month and wound up sixth beaten four lengths and then galloped out nicely in what should serve as a good prep for today’s stretch-out. The R. Baltas barn has good stats with second-time starters, and from a nice inside draw the daughter of Shanghai Bobby can be expected to produce enough tactical speed to be in a good ground-saving, second flight position. We’ll give Constantia the edge on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Sapphire Silk; 3-First Empress
View Video Analysis
Forecast: First Empress, claimed in her last pair and a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita main track, doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 main track miler for fillies and mares and seems as good as any off her best effort. Now in the R. B. Hess, Jr., barn, the daughter of Cairo Prince should be forwardly placed in a race that seems likely to produce soft early fractions and given that type of trip she should be capable of returning to winning form. Sapphire Silk was overmatched in a starter’s allowance affair on grass eight days ago but she earned a career top “buried” number in that race she seems likely to improve a bunch against this easier group. Her maiden claiming win two runs back charts reasonably well in this spot so we can use her as a back-up or a saver in rolling exotic play while keying First Empress as the main push.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Baja Sur; 6-Galilean
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Galilean is tough at any distance or surface and seems well-placed for a big effort while returning to state-bred stakes company. Fifth when overmatched in the Del Mar Mile H.-G2 behind Breeders’ Cup-bound Mo Forza last time out, the J. Sadler-trained colt tackles a much softer group today and projects to enjoy an ideal pace stalking trip outside and then have every chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. Baja Sur, a strong-runner up in the Green Flash S.-G3 at Del Mar last time out, is plenty fast on speed figures to win and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. First or second in eight of 10 career starts, the Smiling Tiger gelding is thoroughly genuine and consistent and sports a bullet six furlong work (1:14 1/5, fastest of eight) at his home base at Golden Gate Fields last week to have him right on edge. Slight preference on top goes to Galilean but both should be included on your rolling exotic ticket.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: C+ (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 2-Investment Account; 9-Wedding Groom
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Wedding Groom has finished second in both of his career starts but is relatively slow on numbers so he’s no slam dunk despite being the obvious top pick in this extended sprint for maiden $50,000 state-bred juveniles. A switch to U. Rispoli from a cozy outside post are positive factors, so this son of Hard Spun may be able to outlast this group either on the lead or from a stalking position. Investment Account is another with modest speed figures on his resume but he’s dropping into a seller for the first time and may have found his friends. He’s also returning to the main track, shortening in trip, and he’s managed to hit the board twice sprinting on dirt earlier in his career. In a race that probably should be left alone, we’ll try to survive and advance using just these two.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 3-Jimmy D
Forecast: Jimmy D is unproven at this marathon grass trip but in his present form the J. Wong-trained gelding beats this field if he can relax early and see out the trip. The gamble is that he will, even though there’s probably not much value to be found at or near his morning line of 8/5. We’ll use him as a rolling exotic single but otherwise sit out the race.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B- (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 6-Fly to Mars; 7-Coalinga Road
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Coalinga Road is improving with racing and moves up from a maiden state-bred turf sprint victory into first-level allowance company. Still a bit green and sloppy on his leads, the Quality Road gelding will need to produce another forward move, but with solid works since raced the C. Gaines-trained homebred has a chance to move up the ladder. Fly to Mars, a former graded stakes winner, clearly has seen better days but is re-equipped with blinkers, drops to the $20,000 optional claiming level and shortens to a sprint. Perhaps he’ll remember who he once was.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-My Lucky Mark; 3-Uber Star; 5-Klondike Creek
Forecast: Klondike Creek has been facing much tougher down south and shows up for the money run with two previous very good races over the all-weather surface. Anything close to his best is good enough to win. My Lucky Trip stretches out for J. Wong (solid 20% with this angle) and from ins comfortable inside draw the Lucky Pulpit gelding poses a serious threat to take this middle distance $12,500 claiming band gate-to-wire. His sprint numbers are solid and this trainer/jockey combo is a powerful 26% during the season. The “other” J. Wong entrant is the first-off-the-claim Soberana, a two-time synthetic track winner and very likely to improve for a barn that hits with a remarkable 35% after joining this barn via the claim. He’ll be running on strongly late.
October 11, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Empress of Fire; 5-On Mars
View Video Analysis
Forecast: On Mars is improving with racing – she earned a career-top speed figure when second vs. similar last month at Del Mar – and should continue to step forward at this nine furlong trip that she seems certain to enjoy. A deep closing daughter of Vronsky, the P. D’Amato-trained filly likely will rally against the grain but should be good enough to produce the last run. Empress of Fire, a beaten choice when sixth in the same race On Mars exits, draws inside and projects to enjoy an ideal ground-saving trip. In a pace-less affair, it wouldn’t be much of a surprise to see her on the lead, and if left alone without pressure the P. Eurton-trained daughter of He Be Fire N Ice could take this group a very long way. We’ll prefer On Mars on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Mystery Man; 4-Seiche
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Mystery Man shows the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern and has the pedigree to move up over a distance of ground, so we’re expecting the son of Violence to produce a career top effort in this maiden special weight main track mile affair. The R. Mandella-trained colt continues to impress in the a.m. and retains M. Smith, so if he’s going to develop into a useful type, this is a race he’s supposed to be able to win. Sieche, in the frame in both starts and second at this trip in a similar affair at Del Mar, will be the one to beat if he can slow down during the early stages. The Super Saver gelding blazed away in :21 4/5 and :45 4/5 and paid the price in the final furlong; today he’ll likely have a much easier time of it up front. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics with preference on top to Mystery Man.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Psycho Dar; 4-Mystery Messenger
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Psycho Dar just won in good style over this course and distance when facing $40,000 foes and today seeks a repeat off relatively short rest while dropping to the $32,000 level. Normally this would constitute an unhealthy pattern but we suspect trainer S. Miyadi is simply trying to strike while the iron is hot. The Storm Wolf gelding likely will be on or near the lead again from his rail post and if he can turn it two alike, he’ll be hard to beat. Mystery Messenger has the always-dangerous route-to-sprint angle and won going short on the local lawn earlier this year. With a little help up front, the Point of Entry gelding could pose a serious threat from the top of the lane to the wire. Both should be used on your rolling exotic tickets.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B-
Use: 1-Paid Informant; 5-Li’l Grazen
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Li’l Grazen just demolished a $20,000 state-bred optional claiming field while equaling her career top speed figure and was promptly claimed by M. Ortiz (solid with the angle), who raises the veteran mare to the $40,000 level while tackling open first-level allowance company. Drawn comfortably outside and first or second in seven of 13 career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the daughter of Grazen should be tough right back despite the class hike. Based on her interior fractions, she appears to be the quickest of the quick. If a speed duel develops, look for Paid Informant to be the most dangerous of the closers. A good runner-up behind the unbeaten Magic At Midnight last time out, she’s facing nobody that tough today and if the lightly-raced daughter of Into Mischief continues her improving pattern, she could easily mow ‘em all down late. We’ll give Li’l Grazen a slight edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:11 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Siena Silk; 8-Constantia
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Constantia finished eighth but beaten less than three lengths in a maiden special weight affair over this course and distance last month and this class drop into the maiden $50,000 ranks – her proper level – should allow the daughter of Munnings to finally earn her diploma. A good runner-up effort in a similar event at Del Mar in late August beats this field if she repeats it. Siena Silk was given a run sprinting on turf in her debut at Del Mar last month and wound up sixth beaten four lengths and then galloped out nicely in what should serve as a good prep for today’s stretch-out. The R. Baltas barn has good stats with second-time starters, and from a nice inside draw the daughter of Shanghai Bobby can be expected to produce enough tactical speed to be in a good ground-saving, second flight position. We’ll give Constantia the edge on top but include both in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Sapphire Silk; 3-First Empress
View Video Analysis
Forecast: First Empress, claimed in her last pair and a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita main track, doesn’t have a whole lot to beat in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 main track miler for fillies and mares and seems as good as any off her best effort. Now in the R. B. Hess, Jr., barn, the daughter of Cairo Prince should be forwardly placed in a race that seems likely to produce soft early fractions and given that type of trip she should be capable of returning to winning form. Sapphire Silk was overmatched in a starter’s allowance affair on grass eight days ago but she earned a career top “buried” number in that race she seems likely to improve a bunch against this easier group. Her maiden claiming win two runs back charts reasonably well in this spot so we can use her as a back-up or a saver in rolling exotic play while keying First Empress as the main push.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Baja Sur; 6-Galilean
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Galilean is tough at any distance or surface and seems well-placed for a big effort while returning to state-bred stakes company. Fifth when overmatched in the Del Mar Mile H.-G2 behind Breeders’ Cup-bound Mo Forza last time out, the J. Sadler-trained colt tackles a much softer group today and projects to enjoy an ideal pace stalking trip outside and then have every chance to seal the deal when the pressure is turned on. Baja Sur, a strong-runner up in the Green Flash S.-G3 at Del Mar last time out, is plenty fast on speed figures to win and projects to be on or near the lead throughout. First or second in eight of 10 career starts, the Smiling Tiger gelding is thoroughly genuine and consistent and sports a bullet six furlong work (1:14 1/5, fastest of eight) at his home base at Golden Gate Fields last week to have him right on edge. Slight preference on top goes to Galilean but both should be included on your rolling exotic ticket.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: C+ (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 2-Investment Account; 9-Wedding Groom
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Wedding Groom has finished second in both of his career starts but is relatively slow on numbers so he’s no slam dunk despite being the obvious top pick in this extended sprint for maiden $50,000 state-bred juveniles. A switch to U. Rispoli from a cozy outside post are positive factors, so this son of Hard Spun may be able to outlast this group either on the lead or from a stalking position. Investment Account is another with modest speed figures on his resume but he’s dropping into a seller for the first time and may have found his friends. He’s also returning to the main track, shortening in trip, and he’s managed to hit the board twice sprinting on dirt earlier in his career. In a race that probably should be left alone, we’ll try to survive and advance using just these two.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 3-Jimmy D
Forecast: Jimmy D is unproven at this marathon grass trip but in his present form the J. Wong-trained gelding beats this field if he can relax early and see out the trip. The gamble is that he will, even though there’s probably not much value to be found at or near his morning line of 8/5. We’ll use him as a rolling exotic single but otherwise sit out the race.
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RACE 9: Post: 5:15 PT Grade: B- (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 6-Fly to Mars; 7-Coalinga Road
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Coalinga Road is improving with racing and moves up from a maiden state-bred turf sprint victory into first-level allowance company. Still a bit green and sloppy on his leads, the Quality Road gelding will need to produce another forward move, but with solid works since raced the C. Gaines-trained homebred has a chance to move up the ladder. Fly to Mars, a former graded stakes winner, clearly has seen better days but is re-equipped with blinkers, drops to the $20,000 optional claiming level and shortens to a sprint. Perhaps he’ll remember who he once was.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-My Lucky Mark; 3-Uber Star; 5-Klondike Creek
Forecast: Klondike Creek has been facing much tougher down south and shows up for the money run with two previous very good races over the all-weather surface. Anything close to his best is good enough to win. My Lucky Trip stretches out for J. Wong (solid 20% with this angle) and from ins comfortable inside draw the Lucky Pulpit gelding poses a serious threat to take this middle distance $12,500 claiming band gate-to-wire. His sprint numbers are solid and this trainer/jockey combo is a powerful 26% during the season. The “other” J. Wong entrant is the first-off-the-claim Soberana, a two-time synthetic track winner and very likely to improve for a barn that hits with a remarkable 35% after joining this barn via the claim. He’ll be running on strongly late.
