I am HUGE (12-21 YTD ATS 36%) Week 7 picks

iamhuge · Oct 11, 2020

Week 7 is the beginning of the BIG comeback.....here are my picks....analysis to follow:

Coastal carolina +7 LOUISIANA -LAFAYETTE
Georgia state +5 ARKANSAS STATE
Smu -6.5 TULANE
Pittsburgh +9.5 MIAMI
South Florida / TEMPLE UNDER 52.5
North Carolina -10 FLORIDA STATE
NOTRE DAME -15 louisville
Lsu / FLORIDA OVER 69
Marshall -13 LOUISIANA TECH

best of luck to all.

iamhuge · Oct 12, 2020

Coastal carolina +7 LOUISIANA -LAFAYETTE

I don’t know how good Coastal Carolina is yet, but they are certainly scoring a lot of points (averaging 44 points per game). Of course, Louisiana shocked the world when they beat Iowa State in week 1, but if you throw out that game, they have been less than impressive. They beat Georgia State in Overtime and then beat Georgia Southern by 2 points last week in the last game they played. They had to make a 50+ yard field goal at the end of the game to avoid the loss. Since limping out of there with their tail between their legs, it will be 18 days until they take the field again. Meanwhile they had to deal with another hurricane which certainly messed up practices.

If you look at their last two games, the Ragin' Cajuns played teams that are ranked lower than Coastal Carolina, yet they couldn’t cover the 7 points that they are asked to do on Wednesday night.

Make no bones about it, the Cajuns will be the Chanticleers toughest test thus far this season but they beat Kansas by 15 and really thumped a good Arkansas State team by 29. More importantly, Freshman quarterback Grayson McCall is ranked 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in the nation in passing efficiency with a QB Rating of 207.7. He has completed 67% of his passes with 9 touchdowns and only 1 interception. That’s really good.

Coastal has reported no injuries…zero. Meanwhile the Cajuns are a walking hospital bed: Elijah Mitchell RB (Probable), Neal Johnson TE (Questionable), Asjlin Washington CB (Questionable), Joe Dillon LB (Questionable), Tayland Humphrey DT (Questionable), Peter Leblanc WR (Questionable), Max Mitchell OL (Questionable), Jamal Bell WR (Out), Calif Gossett WR (Out)

We’ll find out who is better on Wednesday night…but it has been a very long time since the Cajuns have looked impressive. I love the value here, taking the points and the Chants.

iamhuge · Oct 13, 2020

Georgia State +5 Arkansas State

Well…this is a hedge on Wednesday night’s game. If Georgia State is good, as per their OT loss to Louisana and beat down of East Carolina, then they will cover this game easily. The problem is, we still aren’t sure how good their opponents (are) were. If both of the teams they beat aren’t good at all, then it’s likely that Georgia State isn’t good and that means Louisiana isn’t good so Coastal Carolina will likely cover their game against Louisiana.

Now if you can follow that logic in any capacity, it means you have too much time on your hands. The bottom line is I can see both sides of this bet, and having said that, I am happy taking the points. Since Georgia State is averaging 40 points per game, the back door cover is very lovely and lively. They are averaging 235 yards per game rushing, which is always good when you’re on the road - it helps silence the crowd wearing masks.

The Red Wolves defense has become very suspicious as they coughed up over 400 yards of offense to FCS Central Arkansas in their last contest. No surprise then that they have given up 37 points per game this season. That bodes well for more offensive production from Georgia State and a back door cover. How bad is the Arkansas State defense? Let’s just say that Arkansas State won’t be trying to preserve a shutout in the 4[SUP]th[/SUP] quarter. On Thursday night I won’t be drinking beer that tastes like Panther piss and instead I will be watching the Panthers put up points….taking the 5 points on the road Panthers.

iamhuge · Oct 13, 2020

Smu -6.5 TULANE

When Bruce Springsteen fired the E Street Band in 1989 and then subsequently went on tour without guitarists Steven Van Zandt and Nils Lofgren, his new guitarist was Shane Fontaine. Now Shane was as fraudulent as they come. Fortunately for SMU, their QB Shane Buechele is not at all fraudulent. On the contrary, as expected, he is as good as advertised as he has thus far completed 69% of his passes for 10 touchdowns against only 2 interceptions. Complementing this air show, the Mustangs have raised the curtain on their 21[SUP]st[/SUP] century version of the Pony Express, running for 220 yards per game so far this year. All these stats are meaningless if it doesn’t boil down to wins, but the Stangs are now 4-0 on the season after toppling mighty Memphis in their last contest. The good news is that they had a bye week to nurse their expected hangover and prepare for Tulane on the road, which would have otherwise been a mega look ahead game with Cincinnati on deck.

It is readily acknowledged that Tulane is pesky. But the bottom line is that they are just not that good. Massey Composite has SMU ranked 26[SUP]th[/SUP] while 2-2 Tulane is ranked all the way down to 59[SUP]th[/SUP] (between Troy and Arkansas State). Neither of their victories were quality wins (barely beating South Alabama and a comfortable win over a pathetic Southern Siss squad). More revealing are their losses – a 3 point loss to Navy which is not even close to being in SMU’s league and an 18 point hammering by Houston, which was only playing in its first game. Arguably Tulane does play much better at home, but it isn’t the stadium that matters. Their quarterback can’t hit the side of a barn, completing only 42% of his passes. Plus they had all kinds of Hurricane Delta nonsense to deal with last week. We saw how Tulane collapsed against Houston when they coughed up the lead. They just don’t have the skill at the QB position to play come from behind football. It’s likely that the Mustangs will find a way to get to the end zone 3 times in the first half, by land or by air and Tulane will not be able to close the gap in the 2[SUP]nd[/SUP] half. I am laying the wood on Shane the read deal and the Ponies.

indiana · Oct 13, 2020

huge........this is your turn around week buddy.........BOL with all your action.........indy

iamhuge · Oct 13, 2020

Pittsburgh +9.5 MIAMI
Miami transfer QB D’Eriq King was all that, until he ran into a defense last week against Clemson and then he was a shart. The hailstorm that Clemson brought down on Miami was very impressive. Now one has to question the 43 points per game that Miami has posted in their 3 previous contests (UAB, Louisville, Florida State) as none of those teams had any kind of formidable defense. The point here is that Miami is running into an angry Pittsburgh Panthers team with a rugged defense that has only yielded 18 points per game. The Panthers rank sixth in the country in total defense. Their record of 3-2 masks the fact that each of their 2 losses were by only 1 point. Their defense has only yielded 52 rushing yards per game so Miami will need to get it done through the air. Once a Heisman hopeful, it stands to reason that King may try too hard on Saturday, which could lead to a bad result for the Canes and his star Offensive Lineman, John Campbell, injured his knee last week.

Pittsburgh is not a one dimensional team. They can score also. Quarterback Kenny Pickett leads the nation in passing yards with 1,389. In what will likely be a very low scoring game, 9.5 points is HUGE. If Pittsburgh can score 21 points, I just don’t see Miami getting 30 to cover with Depressed D’Eriq at the helm for the Canes. Another Panther cover for the road doggies and the 9.5 points.

CHOPTALK · Oct 13, 2020

On your Louisiana thing the main reason they did not look impressive in those 2 games is because they had 7 starters missing due to covid in game 2 and 8 starters missed due to covid in game 3

iamhuge · Oct 13, 2020

CHOPTALK said:
On your Louisiana thing the main reason they did not look impressive in those 2 games is because they had 7 starters missing due to covid in game 2 and 8 starters missed due to covid in game 3

That's a lot of starters

iamhuge · Oct 14, 2020

South Florida / TEMPLE UNDER 52.5

The Bulls are headed north to tangle with the Owls in the Link on Saturday. South Florida has been nothing but awful on offense all season. Actually, they have been just plain awful. They are now ranked 85[SUP]th[/SUP] out of 90 teams on the Massey Composite – nestled amongst powerhouses UTEP and Kansas. Oh how far we have fallen. That’s actually not fair, USF has been ass for 10 years now. But this year they are complete ass. They are averaging 10 points per game on offense in the 3 FBS games they have played. They got shut out by Notre Dame and only scored 7 against Cincinnati. They put up 24 against East Carolina but Georgia State scored 49 and UCF scored 51 on the Pirates. Bottom line is their offense is a straight up no show.

The Owls are more of a mystery since they have only played one game, scoring 29 points in a loss to Navy, but that isn’t particularly impressive since the Middies are coughing up 37 points per game. The South Florida defense isn’t terrible, considering that their offense keeps them on the field all day. The risk on Saturday is that four defensive backs are listed as either out or questionable and DT Tyrone Barber and DE Jabreel Stephens are listed as questionable. Temple was able to hold Navy to only 4.2 yards per carry, which his pretty good against that option unit. I would hardly expect USF to do any better than that, probably much worse. As a result I am expecting a punter ballet on Saturday which would keep the final score way under the total of 52.5

iamhuge · Oct 14, 2020

North Carolina -10 FLORIDA STATE
Undefeated North Carolina, and Sam Howell, are starting to live up to their press clippings. The poor Seminoles will be the worst team that UNC sees this season. In 2 or their previous 3 games, the Tar Heels covered the 10 point spread against better opponents. They beat Syracuse by 25 and Virginia Tech by 11.

Florida State has played 2 teams of equal or better caliber than UNC (Notre Dame and Miami). They got smacked by the Hurricanes, losing by 42 and got beaten down by 16 to the Irish. So I see 5 games and UNC being able to cover the 10 points in 2 of them and FSU failing to cover 2 of them as well. Four out of Five are pretty good odds.
Averaging 38 points per game, UNC isn’t going to have a problem scoring against FSU who is giving up 34 points per game. They had 656 yards of total offense last week. The Florida State defense could sure use some Prime Time and Ron Simmons….Damn! They don’t have a pass rush and are giving up 5.6 yards per carry on the ground. That’s not good at all, especially because UNC is averaging 6.3 yards per carry. When you’re on the road, you want to be able to run the ball, and it looks as if UNC is going to be able to take Florida State’s manhood away and impose their will on the ground.

The UNC defense has been criticized after struggling to close out Virginia Tech last week, but in their previous two games, they were very good as BC and the ‘Cuse averaged only 14 points against the Heels. Overall their defense is ranked 22[SUP]nd[/SUP] in the FBS…that’s really not bad. Actually a lot better than what we are seeing in the SEC these days. FSU’s starting QB Travis has a hand injury and was limited in practice last week.

I’m not a trend guy, but UNC is 6-1 ATS last 7 as a favorite. FSU is 4-11-1 ATS last 16 as a dog. The Tar Heels really need to chew through this chafe for the next few weeks in their schedule before they see the heavy hitters. Since they don’t play Clemson, in order to be taken seriously they will have to do a rain dance on the Seminoles. I am laying the 10 points on the road on the Heels.

iamhuge · Oct 14, 2020

Coastal Carolina covers...1-0 for the week.

iamhuge · Oct 15, 2020

NOTRE DAME -15 louisville

Sorry Louisville…if you want me to bet on you this week, you shouldn’t have lost to Georgia Tech by 19 last week and to Miami by 13 earlier this season. They Notre Dame defense is far superior to both of these teams that thumped the Cardinals. They are going on the road to face the Fighting Covids and touchdown Jesus is going to cough all over the Cardinals this week.

Louisville has been turning the ball over like crazy, but there is no mean reversion plans for this week. It is a function of the inconsistent play at the QB position. Malik Cunningham is completely undisciplined and he may be able to get away with these mistakes against weaker defenses but this week he will be facing his most ferocious test of the season, and it ain’t gonna be pretty. Louisville also fumbles the ball way too much. When I was in college after a night of boozing, me and Lance used to go to the Roy Rogers on the corner of 40[SUP]th[/SUP] and Walnut. When the cashier wasn’t looking, Lance would reach around the glass display warmer and steal the chicken and put it in his pocket. The only downside to this was that our hands got greasy from all of the free Chikkk-Ken. When we went back the following week, they had removed the display case and moved it back into the kitchen. We were all sad. But the lesson here is you can’t have Chikkk-Ken on your hands if you want to hold onto the football.

Even if Louisville can hang onto the ball, they will be running into a brick wall which is the Irish defense. They are second in the nation in third down stops – teams are converting just 18% of the time. Notre Dame is well rested after a 3 week break and some COVID drama. They should be much sharper after having all of those players back and practicing. Coach Kelly had steam coming out of his ears after the Irish defense relaxed a little against FSU. He wants defense to be this team’s identity, and the best way to get back on track will be playing well on Saturday.

Notre Dame certainly has enough offense to score 40 on Louisville, especially with experienced QB Ian Book at the helm. Louisville’s defense has been more than generous, as opponents are averaging 34 ppg against them. Also Louisville is really bad about giving up big plays. Georgia Tech scored 32 second half points against the Cards…32! Louisville is 1-8-1 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog. Fighting Irish are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight-up win. We know for sure the game will be on TV as the Golden Domers are going to behind me as I Knute Rockne up to the pay window…laying the wood on the Irish!

exploited17 · Oct 15, 2020

Should have waited on that Pitt line
Up to +14
Think it could matter
Got them winning by 10-17

Gl

iamhuge · Oct 16, 2020

Georgia State doesn't cover in an unwatchable game. 1-1 on the week

iamhuge · Oct 16, 2020

Marshall -13 LOUISIANA TECH

I really like this pick. The reason why is Louisiana Tech is straight up ass this year. Their record is 3-1 but they are really not that good at all. They were lucky to beat Southern Siss by 1 point, 31-30. Then they beat up Houston Bapsiss. Then the Mormons from BYU got all shitfaced and sissed all over the Bulldogs by the score of 45-14. Most revealing about Louisiana Tech’s incompetence was their narrow victory, 21-17, over lame ass UTEP. In that game, they barely completed 50% of their passes for a paltry 115 yards passing.

The Thundering Herd, on the other hand, is playing amazing defense this year – yielding only 7 points per game. They throttled the high octane Appalachian State offense, that scored 43 ppg in their other two games, and held them to only 7 points. None of their opponents has been able to exceed 100 yards rushing.

Last week they smashed Western Kentucky, a team I would argue is every bit as good as La Tech, by 24 points – in fact Marshall was up 38-0 at one point in the game. Averaging 38 points per game, the Herd should have no problem finding the end zone against the Bulldog defense which is allowing 33 points per game. So if Marshall can hold La Tech to 17 points, they’ll only need 31 points to cover. The math works.

Complementing their great defense, Marshall has been running the ball at will with a beast mode running back, Brendan Knox, who has been putting some hard knocks on opposing defenses while toting the rock for 5 yards per carry. It’s going to be easy for Marshall to control the game as they are averaging 226 yards per game on the ground. Last year, Marshall wasn’t as good as they are this year and La Tech was better than they are this year….Marshall won that game by 21 points.

Louisiana Tech is 2-6 ATS in the last 8 played at home as the underdog and Marshall is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 on the road. Marshall is knocking on the door to being a top 20 team and it’s games like this where they need to notch a beat down. At this point in the season, any unbeaten group of 5 team has a legit shot at making the playoffs, so big wins are paramount. I am laying the wood on the Herd…we are Marshall!

MikeB · Oct 16, 2020

Go get em

I like reading your write-ups

iamhuge · Oct 16, 2020

Stupid SMU decides to wait until OT to play defense....1-2 on the week

iamhuge · Oct 17, 2020

Late field goal sinks Pitt cover...1-3 on the week.

iamhuge · Oct 17, 2020

USF finds an offense this week...or maybe Temple's defense is horrible -maybe worse than this under play. 1-4 on the week.

iamhuge · Oct 17, 2020

Notre Dame plays great defense but can't find the end zone....Ian Book not a good whacker. 1-5 on the week. I will keep betting!

I am HUGE (12-21 YTD ATS 36%) Week 7 picks

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