Monday 10/12/2020 Comps/Bonus Plays,Trends, Betting Info, Etc

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Good luck! rxb@ll
 

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477LA CHARGERS -478 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.
 

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5


Monday, October 12

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LA CHARGERS (1 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 2) - 10/12/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 130-96 ATS (+24.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 130-96 ATS (+24.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in dome games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
 

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NFL

Week 5

Trend Report


Monday, October 12

LA Chargers @ New Orleans
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games
 

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NFL

Week 5


Chargers (1-3) @ New Orleans (2-2)
— Chargers lost last three games, all started by rookie QB Herbert.
— LA’s three losses were by 3-5-7 points.
— Three of four Charger games stayed under the total.
— Chargers are 8-7-2 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.

— Saints split their first four games, despite scoring 30+ points three times.
— All four New Orleans games went over the total.
— Saints allowed 34-37 points in their losses; 23-29 in their wins.
— New Orleans is 7-12 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite.

— Drew Brees was the Chargers’ QB from 2001-05.
— Saints won last three series games, by 1-7-5 points.
— Chargers won four of five games in the Superdome; they lost 31-24 in last visit here, in 2012.
 

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Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall

Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 8 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 16 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Monday, Oct. 12

L.A. CHARGERS at NEW ORLEANS

Saints just 2-5 last seven vs. line at Superdome.
New Orleans “over” first four in 2020 and 6 of 7 since late 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.
 

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Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis


October 12, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park starts the week with an 11-race card. The popular 0.20 Early Pick 4 begins in Race 4 and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 4

3-Goldinthebadlands (5/2)-Winner of 3 straight dispatched 4 from this field in last. MacDonald is back and he has taken pictures before. Will probably leave to get an up-close seat and is a major threat.
4-Allstar Seelster (7/2)-Got on the engine from the 9-hole and didn't look back versus $20k claimers in 151.2. Has won 7 of 22 here and does step up, but this barn can keep them good for a while.

Race 5

3-Cyndi Lynn (6-1)-Put in a nice effort from the 2nd tier and will look for an even stronger try from this post. Henry should provide an aggressive steer and fits well with this group. Will shoot against #1 as the ML chalk missed a start and tries Lasix.
4-Sombre (8-1)-Slow start hurt chances when bumped up to this level in last after 2 consecutive wins. If pace is honest chances for success go and JMac should have in striking range.
8-Memo (8-1)-Drops to a soft spot, McNair should be gunning out and that could work well. Has the gate speed to get the top and take control at a solid price.

Race 6

2-Joliette Hanover (7/2)-Has the speed to swallow these up but has broken stride in 2 of last 3. Should enjoy the company and if not over bet this filly is worth the risk.
3-Carnival Heart (8-1)-Winner in 4 of 7 lifetime starts makes her big track debut. Might be overlooked at the windows and will take a swing from this post.
4-Sweet Pink (8-1)-Skimmed the rail with a close-up seat and the pace was honest but did fade down the lane. Now tries Lasix for the 2nd time and Gallucci trainee should like the company at a square price.
8-Always Watching (9/2)-Fits well with this crew and the post helps the price. Has started from post 8 in 2 of last 3 and both times left and got on the engine. Can leave with enough speed to get the top and might be able to control the pace and not be caught.

Race 7

2-Assassins Creed (6-1)-Didn't leave quickly in last start from the rail but took control and went the back half in 55.3 to win easily. Steps up after breaking maiden and will use at a nice price as upswing could continue.
4-Lyons Liberty (5-1)-Yonkers invader makes 2nd start for new barn and last was a sharp effort. Competitive colt might be sitting on a big try. Will look to beat the camera-shy morning line chalk #1.
8-Windsun Azar (12-1)-Steps up to meet better after rolling the 2nd half in .55 with a last quarter of 26.4. Makes 5th lifetime start, maybe everything clicked when winning last and will string along in a race without a standout.

0.20 Early Pick 4

3,4/3,4,8/2,3,4,8/2,4,8
Total Bet=$14.40
 

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Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/12/20


October 12, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.


RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Freedom Flyer; 4-May to My Heart

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Freedom Flyer ran considerably better than the line will show in her debut when a troubled fifth in a similar turf sprint for maiden juvenile fillies at Del Mar last month and seems sure to improve a bunch for a barn that has exceptional stats with second time starters. She’ll enjoy a good ground-saving trip from her rail post and with clear sailing through the lane should be able to produce a winning late bid. May to My Heart actually earned a better speed figure than ‘Flyer when finishing a close third sprinting on grass in late August at Del Mar and is another that is likely to benefit significantly from that bit of experience. Though we suspect ‘Flyer has more upside, this daughter of Liam’s Map probably is worth including on your rolling exotic ticket, at least as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Tiz a Unicorn; 5-True Mischief

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Trainer R. Baltas has this race surrounded with the two main players in a five-runner affair. Tiz a Unicorn has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and seems very likely to improve significantly in her first two-turn outing. Her sprint form isn’t much, but she continues to train like she has some ability and a little will go a long way in this modest maiden claiming main track miler for fillies and mares. We’re projected her to draft into a cozy stalking position in this five-runner event and have every chance to kick home from the top of the lane to the wire. Her stable mate, True Mischief, is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite and deservedly so. In the frame in her last pair including a career top effort when third under these conditions at Del Mar in August, the daughter of Into Mischief shows a healthy work tab since raced and projects to be on the lead or in a cozy stalking spot outside.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-From the Get Go; 5-Superduty Justice

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: This maiden $32,000 juvenile sprint drew five entrants, two of which are stable mates in the L. Mendez barn. The better of the two we suspect is Superduty Justice, comfortably drawn outside and sporting a relatively short but solid work tab that includes a bullet half mile drill (4f, :48hg, fastest of 28) five days ago that we assume was accomplished in company with From the Get Go (same time). The latter was entered but scratched yesterday in a maiden $50,000 2-year-old sprint for this softer spot primarily to ensure the race filled. He’s trained okay, certainly well enough to be considered a contender, so in a race that we’ll otherwise pass we’ll include both in rolling exotic play and then press with Superduty Justice on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B+
Single: 9-Astute

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Astute has trained like a very nice prospect for R. Mandella and appears well-spotted to win at first asking in this abbreviated turf sprint for juvenile fillies. She’s a daughter of Speightstown and therefore bred to excel on grass, and all of her recent drills indicate she’s plenty fit and ready. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’s a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:11 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Caymans Cobra; 5-Colosi

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Caymans Cobra is re-equipped with blinkers and drops to his lowest level ever in this restricted (nw-3) $12,500 claiming main track miler for older horses. A two-time winner at Santa Anita, he’s likely to obtain his coveted pace-pressing/forcing trip so we’re expecting the R. Baltas-trained gelding to rebound with a top try. Colosi is unproven on the main track but removes blinkers and drops sharply in class, so it seems likely the City Zip gelding will be a major factor from off the pace. He’s reunited with “win rider” T. Baze and sports a healthy work pattern since raced. We’ll prefer ‘Cobra on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Tilted Towers; 2-Grit and Curiosity

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: The main contention is drawn inside in this second-level allowance turf sprint, with Grit and Curiosity exiting the best race and deserving of top billing. A respectable third in the Eddie D. S.-G3 last month and with recent speed figures that are better than par for this level, the P. Miller-trained gelding projects to settle into a second flight, stalking position and then have his chance when the pressure is turned on. Tough on any surface but never off the board in three career outings on grass, the son of Macho Uno is logically listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite. Tilted Towers, lightly-raced and improving with each outing, is moving up from an entry-level allowance grass dash while seeking his third straight win and should be close up throughout with a ground-saving trip from his rail draw. He’ll need to step forward again but could have it in him. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B- (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 3-Carpe Victoriam; 4-Race Home

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Carpe Victoriam drops to a realistic level, gets a break in the weights, and returns to his preferred surface (dirt) in this $32,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. A repeat of his strong runner-up try at Churchill Downs (out of which he was claimed for $40,000 by J. Sadler) should be sufficient to handle this assignment. Race Home is another class dropper likely to improve in this league. Not quite as fast on pure numbers as our top pick but turning back to a sprint (his best trip), the M. Ortiz-trained gelding should settle into a second flight, stalking spot and then have dead aim when it counts. Preference on top goes to Carpe Victoriam but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 7: Post 4:29 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Anna Lisa; 7-Marilyn’s Smile

Forecast: Anna Lisa ran very well over this course and distance two races back when winding up a game second after a three-wide pace pressing trip and then went to Los Alamitos for an easy mixed-breed, confidence building score last month. Always genuine and consistent (first or second in nine of 16 starts), she figures to fire another big shot today. Marilyn’s Smile is listed as the 7/5 morning line favorite and will be hard to deny if she returns as well as she left. Away for 11 months, the daughter of Smiling Tiger hails from the T. McCanna barn (excellent stats with layoff runners), shows a steady series of works, and has finished first or second in four of five career outings over the Golden Gate Fields lawn. She’ll be rolling late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B- (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 5-Afleeting Life; 8-Invictatatus

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Invictatatus drops from straight maidens into a below-average maiden $50,000 turf miler and though beaten as the favorite sprinting on dirt last time out should produce his best effort under these conditions against this modest group. The son of Strong Mandate continues to impress in the a.m. and projects to be on or near the lead throughout in a field lacking in early speed (and late speed, too for that matter). Afleeting Life has been away for more than a year and returns in a logical spot with blinkers off and a series of strong, healthy workouts at San Luis Rey Downs for a low profile outfit. If ready, he absolutely can act with these, is the one to fear most and a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 6-Billtown Banner

Forecast: Low-level ($5,000) maiden claimers meet over a mile in the finale. Billtown Banner appears to have much in his favor and can be considered as a possible single for those with limited budgets. He drops to the bottom rung for the first time, stretches out after a series of sprints that earned decent speed figures, and hails from a high-percentage outfit. Yes, he’s unproven around two-turn but against this group there’s no reason he shouldn’t handle the extra distance. Let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 3-1.
 

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Cappers Access

(Mon) NFL Saints -7
(Mon) MLB Dodgers -150
 

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RkSports ServicesFree Sports Picks
1.NSA(The Legend)MLB – Rays over 8
2.Gameday NetworkMLB – Dodgers over 8
3.VegasSI.comMLB – Astros over 8
4.Vegas Line CrushersMLB – Dodgers under 8
5.Sports Action 365MLB – Astros over 8
6.Point Spread ReportMLB – Dodgers -135
7.Lou PanelliMLB – Astros +115
8.Gerry “Big Cat” AndinoMLB – Dodgers -135
9.VegasSI.com Platinum Info ClubMLB – Astros over 8
10.William E. StocktonMLB – Dodgers under 8
11.Vincent PioliMLB – Astros +115
12.Steve “Scoop” KendallMLB – Dodgers -135
13.SCOREMLB – Astros over 8
14.East Coast Line MoversMLB – Dodgers under 8
15.Tony CamponeMLB – Astros +115
16.Chicago Sports GroupMLB – Dodgers -135
17.Hollywood SportslineMLB – Astros over 8
18.VIP ActionMLB – Dodgers under 8
19.South Beach SportsMLB – Astros +115
20.Las Vegas Sports CommissionMLB – Dodgers -135
21.NY Players ClubMLB – Astros over 8
22.Fred CallahanMLB – Dodgers under 8
23.Las Vegas Private CEO ClubMLB – Astros over 8
24.Michigan SportsMLB – Astros +115
25.National Consensus ReportMLB – Dodgers -135
 

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963HOUSTON -964 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 77-56 SU (15.4 Units) in home games against right-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.

965ATLANTA -966 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 37-23 SU (12.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.
 

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MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 12

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HOUSTON (34 - 32) at TAMPA BAY (45 - 22) - 4:07 PM
TYLER GLASNOW (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TYLER GLASNOW vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

CHARLIE MORTON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
MORTON is 5-6 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.92 and a WHIP of 1.604.
His team's record is 6-6 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-8. (-4.8 units)

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ATLANTA (40 - 25) vs. LA DODGERS (48 - 17) - 8:08 PM
MAX FRIED (L) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 139-93 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 62-41 (+20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FRIED is 12-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 26-7 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 22-6 (+13.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 19-3 (+15.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 2-9 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MAX FRIED vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
FRIED is 0-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 6.55 and a WHIP of 1.909.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ATLANTA since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 12-2 (+8.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.8 units)
 

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MLB

Monday, October 12

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (1-0) (@ San Diego)
McCullers is 0-3, 4.98 in his last five starts.
— Houston is 6-6 in his starts, 2-5 away from home.
— Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— McCullers is 1-0, 3.25 in 12 playoff games (5 starts).
— He is 1-2, 3.79 in three career starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Astros won five of their seven playoff games.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Over is 3-4 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 14-25 on road this season.

Former Astro Morton is 3-0, 4.20 in his last three starts.
— Tampa Bay is 6-4 in his starts, 2-2 away from home.
— Under is 6-1 in his last seven starts.
— Morton is 5-2, 3.50 in ten playoff games (9 starts).
— He is 4-6, 6.28 in 11 career starts vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won six of its eight playoff games.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 26-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Fried is 0-0, 3.19 in his last three starts.
— Atlanta is 12-1 in his starts, 5-0 away from home.
— Over is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— Fried is 0-0, 4.67 in 10 playoff games (2 starts).
— He is 0-2, 6.55 in three career starts vs Atlanta.

— Braves threw four shutouts in winning first five playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 21-14 away from home this season.
— Under is 4-1 in their playoff games.

Buehler is 0-0, 3.66 in his last five starts.
— Dodgers are 9-1 in his starts, winning last eight.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Buehler is 1-1, 2.84 in eight career playoff starts.
— He is 2-0, 2.92 in two starts vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 48-17 this year, winning last nine games.
— LA outscored foes 30-11 in their five playoff wins.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 27-8 away from home this season.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.
 

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MLB

Monday, October 12

Trend Report

Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta
 

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MLB public betting, line movement October 12
Patrick Everson

Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers look to keep their perfect postseason intact against the Braves in Game 1 of the NLCS on Monday night. Caesars sportsbooks have Los Angeles a -138 favorite.

MLB betting odds are on the board for a Monday double dip, courtesy of the NLCS and ALCS. The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers square off in Game 1 of the NLCS in Arlington, Texas, preceded by Game 2 of the ALCS between the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays in San Diego.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s games. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

MLB line movement

Los Angeles finished this shortened regular season with the best record in the majors, so it’s no surprise to see the Dodgers in the NLCS. L.A. is a perfect 5-0 in the postseason thus far, coming off a 3-0 sweep of the San Diego Padres in the NLDS. Likewise, Atlanta is 5-0, sweeping the Miami Marlins in the divisional round.

Caesars sportsbooks opened the Dodgers -145 Game 1 favorites, with Atlanta +135, and by late Sunday evening, the moneyline was at Dodgers -138/Braves +128. The total opened at 8 and stuck there through Sunday for Monday’s 8:08 p.m. ET first pitch.

Tampa Bay claimed a 2-1 victory over Houston in Game 1 of the ALCS on Sunday. PointsBet USA opened Game 2 at Rays -135/Astros +115, and there was no movement through Sunday night for Monday’s 4:07 p.m. ET start. PointsBet opened the total at 8 and momentarily ticked to 7.5 before going back to 8.

MLB public betting

The Dodgers are always a public team, and that’s showing up in early Covers Consensus play, with 64 percent of picks on Los Angeles through Sunday night. The total was getting two-way play, with 52 percent of picks on the Over.

Astros-Rays Game 2 is also getting two-way traction, with 52 percent of early Covers Consensus picks on Tampa Bay. On the total, 56 percent of picks through Sunday night were on the Over.
 

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Chargers vs. Saints Week 5 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

For the second consecutive week, the Los Angeles Chargers find themselves out on the road in NFC South country, and if they've got another chance to knock off a future HOF quarterback again, hopefully, they'll know how to finish this time.

The Chargers had QB Tom Brady and the Buccaneers down big late in that 1st half last week before blunders started the spiral of momentum against them, and Tampa took full advantage in the final 30 minutes. Mistakes like that can happen for younger teams like the Chargers are, but the Saints have not looked invincible by any means this year.

Yet, the problem for Chargers fans/backers has to be that any time we get Drew Brees on MNF these days, he's usually out there breaking some long-standing QB record. I'm not sure there are any within reach this time, but the Saints have been a reliable team to back in recent MNF games as some memorable moments for Brees are behind them.

Betting Resources

Week 5 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Location: New Orleans, LA
Date: Monday, Oct. 12, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert makes his fourth straight start as the Chargers take on the Saints. (AP)

Line Movements

But Saints fans have to fear that all of the great moments Brees has had in his career are currently behind him, as there are serious questions about his ability to be that guy to lead this team on another deep run this year.

New Orleans was hoping to have wide receiver Michael Thomas available to help give Brees a more reliable option to work with on offense but the below "Tweet" from Adam Schefter sums up the priorities for the All-Pro.

With or without Thomas, the Saints still have trouble stopping teams too – Saints give up an average of 30.8 points per game – and if Brees is amid a severe decline, how long can you expect to have him keep winning games 35-30?

New Orleans might not have to worry so much with this specific opponent about those deficiencies, but they'll still be around regardless. They are a big part of the question this week regarding whether the Saints will cover this number.

Spread: New Orleans -7
Money-Line: New Orleans -310, L.A. Chargers +260
Total: 50

2020 Betting Stats

L.A. Chargers

Overall: 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Road: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 20.8 (Rank 27)
Defense PPG: 23.8 (Rank 11)

New Orleans

Overall: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 O/U
Home: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 30.8 (Rank T-5)
Defense PPG: 30.8 (Rank 25)

Handicapping the Total

This game is not one I was particularly fond of for the entire week this week as there are cases to be made each way. In terms of the total, Saints at home in prime time appearances have lit up the scoreboard in the past, and we just saw another 40+, the future HOF QB put up 5 TD's on this Chargers defense last week. But Brady's been trying to re-teach himself to look deep then short this year in his progressions when all Brees tends to look and throw short.

Alternatively, can you trust this Chargers offense to put up 30+ point efforts in consecutive weeks after failing to score more than 20 in their first three games of the season? Yes, the Saints defense is bad and can help LA along in that regard, but it's still rookie QB Justin Herbert's second career road start, in a tough travel spot (whether they went to and from LA between games or not), and off a game where they coughed up what would have been a huge win.

The Chargers being completely flat and/or overmatched early is also a possible outcome to thing about here, and asking them to pull their weight for a total in the ‘50s may be a bit much.

I'm more inclined to think that the Chargers offense is likely to come back down to earth a bit, as well as the Saints defense at least “looking” better against an inferior opponent. I do also think this Chargers defense is more likely to bounce back off that rough outing and look more like the team that held the Bengals, Chiefs, and Panthers to 12, 23, and 21 points, respectively, as they did in their first three games.

I believe that Brees has hit that career cliff where talent tends to nosedive, so asking him to keep putting up 30 points a game on long, dink-and-dunk drives just isn't going to keep working out. New Orleans is 6-2 O/U in their last eight appearances on MNF, but they are also on a 4-11 O/U run against a losing team. It's the last run that I side with for this one.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 2, 2016 - New Orleans 35 at L.A. Chargers 34, Saints +3.5, Over 54
Oct. 7, 2012 - New Orleans 31 vs. San Diego 24, Saints -3.5, Over 52.5

Handicapping the Side

Believing the end is here for Brees also means that I want no part of him laying anything that much more than a FG based on the matchup, and this is one of those games where it's between fading the Saints or passing on the side.

Even if I'm completely wrong about Brees being smack dab right in the middle of the end, and he still goes out there and lights things up, New Orleans still has a defense that gives up 30 points per game. Even if they do look better, you're always asking them to potentially keep the back door shut as well from an ATS standpoint late in the game. Even if they declared they wanted too, I'm not sure the Saints defense could stop a garbage time TD drive against more times than not, and that's a situation that bettors still may have to sweat out after watching Brees and the Saints offense be at their best.

Anything less than that (far more likely), from Brees and company, and this spread is far too lofty a price on the Saints for me even to consider.

Yet, I'm not thrilled to be having the Chargers in this game either, as back-to-back non-conference road spots tend to be hard for a young team to come away with back-to-back ATS wins. And if it's the Chargers who have a dud of a game, even an average Brees and company win this game by double digits comfortably.

The Chargers are on a 33-15-4 ATS run as an organization when listed as a road underdog, but they are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last four MNF appearances. Again, cases to be made for both sides, and it's just safer to pass.

Key Injuries

L.A. Chargers

QB Tyrod Taylor: Lung - Questionable
WR Mike Williams: Hamstring - Questionable
G Trai Turner: Groin - Questionable
T Storm Norton: Knee - Questionable
T Bryan Bulaga: Back - Questionable
RB Austin Ekeler: Hamstring - Out

New Orleans

WR Michael Thomas: Discipline - Out
T Ryan Ramczyk: Concussion - Questionable
T Andrus Peat: Ankle - Questionable
CB Marshon Lattimore: Hamstring - Questionable
CB Janoris Jenkins: Shoulder - Questionable
DE Marcus Davenport: Elbow - Questionable
TE Jared Cook: Ankle - Questionable
LB Chase Hansen: Hip - Out
 

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