Zia Park 10-12-2020

ZIA 10-12-2020

ZIA, wouldn't wanna be ya. ROFLMAO


race #5 - 6f
#1 9-2 RED CLOUD EXPRESS
#7 2-1 EMILY WHO

race #6 - 6f
... half the field with a shot
#1 8-1 NO DOUBT - could be a good play at a price
#2 5-1 ME AND JACK - gets speed to run at but track not too kind to closers
#12 9-2 RIO CUTIE - drops and shortens

race #7 - 5.5f
... wide open if fav falters
#3 9-5 MINDOFMYOWN - logical
#1 6-1 JACK'S PARTY GIRL
#5 12-1 PRINCESS JADA
#6 20-1 SASHAYING SIS

race #8 - 6.5f
#11 5-2 FRANKLYENERGIZED
#6 6-1 CELESTIAL COWBOY
#8 10-1 JUST CALL ME KEN

race #9 - 6f
... very tough race
#4 8-1 COURAGE N ORDER - jock+
#6 3-1 DESERT REWARD
#7 20-1 BLACK EYED BANDIT - speedy
#10 5-1 COMET CAUSEY

race #10 - 5.5f
#2 7-2 YOU BUG ME
#10 8-1 CHICO LADRONE - in easier
#7 20-1 HE'S A HIT - shock value


FYI, definitions:
"pick to click" - most likely (aka best bet)
"bomb alert" - very possible, don't ignore if big price
"exotic booster" - use underneath only
"fiddler" - don't expect top effort if low price
My wagers are exacta keybox top pick, plus straight win bet on top pick.
Good luck to all!

Good luck Prof

race #6 - 6f
... half the field with a shot
#1 8-1 NO DOUBT - could be a good play at a price
#2 5-1 ME AND JACK - gets speed to run at but track not too kind to closers
#12 9-2 RIO CUTIE - drops and shortens


sure picked an interesting race

here is the funny part

the track linesmaker made the #3 ml chalk, the #8 6-1, and the #5 6-1.

this is not possible as the #7, #6, #1, #9 should realistically be lower odds than the above three horses mentioned .
the (sims) on these 4 horses are overloaded twice the amount of the 3 horses the linesmaker made lower ??

does not make sense .

regardless a real interesting race

food for thought prof

hope all is well

Lt1 said:

Good luck Prof

Click to expand...

Thanks, Lt. Same to you!

yesyes said:

race #6 - 6f... half the field with a shot#1 8-1 NO DOUBT - could be a good play at a price#2 5-1 ME AND JACK - gets speed to run at but track not too kind to closers#12 9-2 RIO CUTIE - drops and shortens
sure picked an interesting race
here is the funny part
the track linesmaker made the #3 ml chalk, the #8 6-1, and the #5 6-1.
this is not possible as the #7, #6, #1, #9 should realistically be lower odds than the above three horses mentioned .the (sims) on these 4 horses are overloaded twice the amount of the 3 horses the linesmaker made lower ??
does not make sense .
regardless a real interesting race
food for thought prof
hope all is well

Click to expand...

Thanks for the info!! ..... looking forward to it, might be the best race on the card.

Yes ...... I'm dead-on eyeing those 4 you listed ..... they are contenders.

Yes .... was looking at playing super in the 6th depending on prices.
1 / 2,9,12 / 2,9,12 / 2,5,6,7,9,12
Is what I had jotted down before your post.

Tough race prof but nonetheless opportunity
is there . Hope u land on the right ones my friend

stick to your guns budd
I’m just trying to offer u a different view

but u know the sims don’t lie . They beat me to the punch over and over again daily

my wizard kids told me these 4 are overloading so they should be tough

but u know one race says nothing .

Ur vision continues to impress me

great job

So here is my view on what happened in that race . It happens daily .


First of all the track oddsmaker blundered the whole race .
So understanding what the real odds should have been was step one .
See post #3


Next from that
The #2. Was the clear (sim) Choice


7,1,6,9. Followed behind him


There was only a 10 point separation between them and when dealing with the sims , it’s not much.


So for me I am was not going to
Tip him at all at birds eye view .
But what u see in the linear and what’s on track tells 2 different stories.


He looked sensational on track today. Was it enough to bet him?? Very tough call.




Here is where players struggle daily and why everyone has to be on alert in how the bet is structured and how much should be wagered.


The layout did not seem like there was a overwhelming selection from those 5 horses. But the money on the #2 was consistent and lopsided telling u that it could have been inside. We have de no contacts in zia park so won’t confirm . But these low level tracks at least 30 percent of the time when the contenders look evenly matched the money becomes the decider on who is live (today). Doesn’t mean they will win but should show a good account of themselves .


On the contrary when the # 7 is suppose to be 5-1 on the board and he is not taking the consistent money it should you can safely downgrade his chances. Yes he could have won as well but you lean against.


Now u add to the fact that horse like the #8 don’t figure at all, and have to jump up 5 lengths to even be considered.
But they do At least 19 percent of the times and mess up your tickets.


So u are dealing with multiple factors all happening at once. So value becomes important. And not value from the odds themselves!!!! but from the quirks of the whole layout according to what it should have been. !!!!! An important distinction .


Some would have said the #2 was an absolute stick out. Some no. But what u did know is he was the only original horse of the 5 major contenders that was live on track. And yes the track layout was not conforming to his idiosyncrasies but that has less of an effect when the horse is healthy for today’s conditions .
Especially low level claimers


This is why he won the race .
It would be nice if horses like the #2 would tip their hands With body language and board money more often but unfortunately these are rare.




Anyway hope it helps
Yes

Thanks, Yes ...... always appreciate the input ..... damn good stuff.

Hit the pick-5 on a $2 wager

yesyes said:

....
So u are dealing with multiple factors all happening at once. So value becomes important. And not value from the odds themselves!!!! but from the quirks of the whole layout according to what it should have been. !!!!! An important distinction .

Yes

Click to expand...

That was my favorite part ....... quite astute Yes!!

Prof_Factor said:

Hit the pick-5 on a $2 wager

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U are number 1 in my book prof .
able to isolate the 4 keys is the ? to the kingdom . Tough just to get one

Great payday well deserved

great stuff ?

Yeah, that should be $2 ticket not $2 wager.
Anyway, yeah, good day.

Your sims were spot on as usual yesman. Just glad I was seeing that race just like you did.
The #1 had a 2-length lead mid-stretch but dealt with too much pressure early to deny the #2 (the best horse in field) the wire.

Much appreciate your insightful posts. Good stuff.

Prof_Factor said:

Yeah, that should be $2 ticket not $2 wager.
Anyway, yeah, good day.

Your sims were spot on as usual yesman. Just glad I was seeing that race just like you did.
The #1 had a 2-length lead mid-stretch but dealt with too much pressure early to deny the #2 (the best horse in field) the wire.

Much appreciate your insightful posts. Good stuff.

Click to expand...

np prof

sorry being pulled away all day and night today

yes the #1 was missing an important sim which made him vulnerable for the (win spot only)
so he actually out ran his simulations(ran real strong ) . This is why when u see something in your analysis i pay close attention
as they always seem to outperform my original sim projections so i always project higher . Must have something to do
with your keen observations of the cheats . Lol


I also missed the boat on the #7(odds wise) as he clearly projected higher in the readouts but didn't draw money . actually very surprised he wasn't lower than the #3 who was last on my readouts . funny how strong that (top ml) projection horse actually is
for most bettors . alot of people just send the money in on that factor alone without considering how bad the horse really is

so we move along nothing is 100 percent but we get it as close as we can

by the way is just me or does every race that one bets at FINGER LAKES feel like you are pulling teeth . when it comes to the stretch run it looks like they are all going sideways and leaning in to each other . . very frustrating , maybe i'm alone on this one

thanks profw-thumbs!^

Finger Lakes is a unique track. It's quirky, effected by weather. Haven't played FL all year but I used to play them regularly and loved playing there. Unfortunately they don't generally have enough wide-open fields to get my attention. Just looked at today's card. Couple good looking races but not enough promise for shot players. You've obviously watched many races at many tracks so I'm sure there isn't much that will escape your notice when it comes to track behavior. But yeah, Finger Lakes can sometimes feel like pulling teeth.

Mahoning in the winter ..... now there's a track. Love it.

Funny you mention cheats. That is actually my main handicapping angle(s).