Week 7: OVER The Total

ofred · Oct 14, 2020

Dinged for a few units last week. I hope nobody got that late LSU play. YTD: 12-11, +1.6 units

Seems like a trend has been developing in recent seasons, and looks even more accelerated this year. Offenses are evolving at such a rapid pace and the defenses are not keeping up. More innovative coaching from younger OCs. Skill players at RB, WR and even TE just seem to be the better athletes out there. What used to be short gains are turning into long gains more and more. QBs also appear to be getting good coaching at the high school level, along with more wide-open HS offenses, and are ready to play at the college level sooner. From my eye test, the defenses look hopelessly outmatched at times. Other than Georgia and Clemson, does anyone else have an elite D? Even at the Group of 5 conferences? Scatbacks, slot receivers and mobile QBs are killing Ds all over. So, here's two I like on Friday:

3* BYU/ Houston- over 63 These two offenses have QBs that can sling it as well as almost anyone. Zach Wilson looked great at the end of 2019, and has continued to blossom. He has moved way up on the draft boards, maybe about #5 for QBs. Clayton Tune started terribly last week vs. Tulane, but considering it was his 1st game of the season, it was to be expected. From the 2nd quarter on, he looked like a much better version of himself from last year. Tune and Wilson both have nice mobility too. They can move around the pocket, and outside it, and throw well from wherever. Both QBs also are loaded with receivers and playmakers that will stretch the defenses thin. BYU is depleted at RB, and might pass more often..along with also trying to keep up with Houston's scoring.

BYU's defense has not played anyone with an offense remotely as speedy and athletic as Houston. Likewise, Houston's defense will see a completely different offense in BYU compared to Tulane. And though the Cougars D will improve this year, they sucked last season, so maybe they still are just a notch or 2 better? Tulane converted those early turnovers, but they don't have much of a passing offense and looked one dimensional. Houston's HC, on Tuesday, said about 15 guys missed some practice with nicks and bruises, but no covid cases. I think their key guys will be ready. Good weather expected.

ofred · Oct 14, 2020

2* SMU/ Tulane- over 63.5 Have seen both teams play, and part of this play is that IMO, they play god-awful defense. Especially in the back 7. Offensive skill players that get beyond the line will make some big plays in this game. Both have pass coverage that allows a lot of separation. Both tackle poorly. SMU might have the worst defense in the AAC, which is good for Tulane. Tulane is a run heavy offense and my only concern is that they get too much in the mode of ball control. But their running game should be able to gouge SMU for big chunks. They ran for 8 YPC vs. USM and 6 YPC vs. Navy. SMU is missing their best WR, but Shane Buechele and the SMU game plan has done a great job of spreading the ball around the last 2 seasons. Both OLs are solid. Good weather expected.

indiana · Oct 15, 2020

Fred.........BOL with your early week action buddy......

may there be many TD's and F/Goals........sweep'em buddy......

looking forward to your complete card this weekend........indy

ofred · Oct 15, 2020

Just my two cents, but a small play on Georgia State +3.5 tonight. Last 2 seasons, they seem to over-achieve, while Ark. St. seems to under-achieve. Could also go over the number.

ofred · Oct 15, 2020

Ark. State- Ga. State game is proof of defenses that have no chance. Terrible...And why didn't I have the OVER?! Got to kick myself.

ofred · Oct 16, 2020

o fred said:
Ark. State- Ga. State game is proof of defenses that have no chance. Terrible...And why didn't I have the OVER?! Got to kick myself.

Seriously felt bad for the defenders in the 4th quarter. Totally gassed.

ofred · Oct 16, 2020

3* Liberty -3. The QB difference here couldn't be more different. Liberty's QB, Malik Willis, is really emerging as a very good dual threat. He is elusive as a pocket passer, and electric as a runner. Syracuse has faced all pocket passers so far, and Willis is going to be a change that the defense will struggle with. Syracuse's QB, Tommy DeVito, is out, and although he's sort of mediocre, his backup(Culpepper) is worse. Syracuse will also be missing a couple of key RBs, their star safety, and a few other key guys- their OL is one area that is hit hard. Liberty has had 2 close game wins with WKU and FIU, but in both games, they outgained their opponents by about 200 yards. This is a team that runs the ball really well, and mixes in short and medium passes. There will be no fans in the Carrier Dome, and so not much of a home field advantage. Will apathy set in for the Orange?

2* South Carolina +3.5 Sad sack Gamecocks have been a bad bet now for a while. This is the game where they can turn around their fortunes. They have to be UP for Auburn at home. A ranked team that has issues. Auburn will be missing probably their 2 best defenders on a defense that is a notch or two down anyways from losing players to the NFL. Their offense has been blah, beating KY partly because of a 3-0 TO edge. An officiating miscue that helps them squeak by Arkansas. And though SC only beat up Vandy last week, they were competitive with both Florida and Tennessee. They get some defenders back this week, have a decent blend of run/ pass offensively. And though Vandy is bad, their defense is respectable and SC's offense really looked good last week. Just got a feeling this game is huge for SC, while Auburn has bigger fish to fry later this season. Also, Bo Nix is still a work in progress.

ofred · Oct 16, 2020

1* La. Tech +14 (-116) This is one of those home games where LT will show up with the best they've got. They have the pass catchers and RBs to move the ball and score. The problem has been their QB, Luke Anthony. Has a good arm, but due to injuries on the OL, has been rushing his throws or getting sacks. This week LT gets a couple of their key OL back at the tackle spots. Should help. Marshall has played really well, but has also benefitted by turnovers. They aren't that good to go on the road and dominate. They have a freshman QB who could struggle on the road in a game like this. LT well-coached and comes up with a good game plan here.

1* BC +13 I guess this line figures that BC will finally run out of magic and close wins, that VT is going to finally show up and play defense. They might. BC has played well enough to beat Pitt and almost beat UNC. They are a team that doesn't have the 4 and 5 star athletes, but the new coaching staff has made the most out of their strengths, and moderated their weaknesses. VT has the great running game, but Herndon Hooker is still a raw passer, and BC has been surprisingly good in their pass defense. BC has to play Herbert and Hooker to run the great majority of the VT offensive plays. BC should have success passing the ball, although UNC gouged VT relentlessly running the ball. BC has a chance to win here or just make it close at the end.

ofred · Oct 16, 2020

1* WVU -13 1H Kansas has really regressed from last year's 3 win season, a season in which they were competitive for about half their games. Kansas has major issues on their OL, and at the QB position. This should play badly for them since West Virginia's best attribute is their defense. They also can apply pressure up front. Though Kansas might have some skill players that are decent, they can't get the ball to them. Turnovers and sacks and TFLs are becoming commonplace when they have the ball. I expect WVU will score 1-2 times off of this horrible Kansas offense. Maybe some short fields. Kansas also has too many young players on defense, and they aren't top recruits either. With so many games off, with only a few home games in a season, and this game not being wedged between 2 tough games for WVU, they will be pumped up for lowly Kansas. Especially after their disappointing 2019 season. WVU has a pretty good running game, a QB who is average, but I think he'll play well enough here vs. a poor Kansas secondary.

1* Texas A&M -5 A&M has come a long way from their Vandy game. They also have the benefit of watching MSU's offense on tape. I'm not sure if KJ Costello is the right guy for this Leach offense. Despite his record breaking 1st week, he has been a turnover machine since. And MSU doesn't have a good 2nd choice. A&M is likely the best defense they've played so far. I do think Mike Leach challenging his players might motivate them some, and their defense is pretty solid, but I don't think they can score enough to cover this spread. I also think the Aggies defense just played 2 of the best offenses in the nation(along with Clemson), and is better than their stats show. Costello is not exactly that mobile, his OL is mediocre, and I think we'll see more of the same this week as we saw the last 2 weeks. Leach was sometimes successful in the PAC 12 due to the awful defensive play, but the SEC is much more physical, the defenders tackle better and are faster.

indiana · Oct 16, 2020

Fred........some really solid plays buddy......BOL with all your Sat. action.....

on A&M, S.Car, and Liberty with you.....will probably add as well....sweep'em buddy......indy

varkeyboy · Oct 16, 2020

You're one of the only ones on the board with the BYU OVER! Dropped to 61.5 by gametime. Solid so far with 17-14 Houston towards end of 2Q...

ofred · Oct 17, 2020

BYU- Houston game could go either way. Houston offense should be more explosive.

2* Alabama -4.5 Offense wins now in college football. Going on the premise that Alabama has a better defense than what we saw vs. Ole Miss. Some say Lane Kiffin knew the defensive signals for the Tide, but I doubt it. Georgia defense has not played a dynamic offense close to Alabama's, and this offense might be as good as the Tua years, maybe better. The OL can handle Georgia up front and that's huge. The Georgia run game is just so pedestrian right now, and not sure that Stetson can do enough to keep them in the game.

Two games at .5 units Might increase tomorrow. Navy -2.5 WKU +13.5 Both of these teams have looked pretty bad so far, but upside is better than what we've seen. ECU might be missing QB.

ofred · Oct 17, 2020

o fred said:
BYU- Houston game could go either way. Houston offense should be more explosive.

2* Alabama -4.5 Offense wins now in college football. Going on the premise that Alabama has a better defense than what we saw vs. Ole Miss. Some say Lane Kiffin knew the defensive signals for the Tide, but I doubt it. Georgia defense has not played a dynamic offense close to Alabama's, and this offense might be as good as the Tua years, maybe better. The OL can handle Georgia up front and that's huge. The Georgia run game is just so pedestrian right now, and not sure that Stetson can do enough to keep them in the game.

Two games at .5 units Might increase tomorrow. Navy -2.5 WKU +13.5 Both of these teams have looked pretty bad so far, but upside is better than what we've seen. ECU might be missing QB.

Sorry about late plays. 1*Navy-3(-115)

1* NC State/ Duke- over 59. Late money pushed this one up. Two QBs that are capable, although Chase Brice might be good for a couple of TOs. Neither defense is very good. More later.

bigwang · Oct 17, 2020

Good luck today OF.

Like Bama myself. Played -5 and have them -200 to close out a parlay with Titans ml from Tue. I don’t know if GA will be able to slow down Najee without bringing safety help up and that will leave cbs trying to cover those wr 1 on 1. Only so many plays that will hold up. GA has made a dumb play or two to shoot themself in the foot last few matchups and I’m sure they will do the same today. Kirby should leave a bunch of minibar bottles around Sark’s playcalling box.

ofred · Oct 17, 2020

big wang said:
Good luck today OF.

Like Bama myself. Played -5 and have them -200 to close out a parlay with Titans ml from Tue. I don’t know if GA will be able to slow down Najee without bringing safety help up and that will leave cbs trying to cover those wr 1 on 1. Only so many plays that will hold up. GA has made a dumb play or two to shoot themself in the foot last few matchups and I’m sure they will do the same today. Kirby should leave a bunch of minibar bottles around Sark’s playcalling box.

I think Sark is off the sauce finally. Give Saban credit for allowing his OCs to open up the Bama offense the last few years. They are just more unpredictable in their play calling, which vs. the Georgia defense, is absolutely necessary.

ofred · Oct 17, 2020

Note: Despite the byline above, West Virginia looks like a good UNDER candidate. They have a mediocre OL and a QB with the yips. Their defense is solid.

ofred · Oct 17, 2020

I stand corrected. Stetson Bennett is the real deal. Moves around the pocket well, and accurate for medium and short throws.

Week 7: OVER The Total

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