Thursday 10/15/2020 Comps/Bonus Plays,Trends, Betting Info, Etc

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Good luck! rxb@ll
 

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Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Pick 4 Analysis


October 15, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
There are 14 races scheduled at Hoosier Park tonight and the 0.50 Pick 4 begins in Race 3. The sequence will have a $10,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 3

1-The Optimist (5/2)-Nine-year-old has been camera shy this year going 1-19. Doesn't have much gate speed but at this class could get sucked around for a rare win. Not a fan of accepting a short price but this is a soft group and last was better.
6-Messi N (9/5)-Ohio invader has been racing on the 5/8's but does show a 150.4 mark at the Big M last year and meets easier.
10-Keystone Magneto (10-1)-Usually starts slowly but did show a 26.4 opening quarter 2 starts back. Will swing for a price and can close well. Miller could leave to get a close-up seat and roll by late at nice odds.

Race 4

2-Sugar And Spite (5/2)-4-year-old meets easier, likes to race close to the top and can do so with this post draw. Short price and is only 2-25 in 2020 but is hard to leave out versus this crew which includes five 3-year-olds.
3-Jd's Queen Lori (9/2)-Drops out of the same class as #2 and tries Lasix for the 2nd time. Tetrick takes a seat and should be put in play.
5-Eternal Bliss (20-1)-Widger takes a spin and that change might help this filly who has been stuck with outside posts in last 3. Did win one of those starts and may get away in a nice spot to find live cover at a juicy price.

Race 5

1-Sunfirewindrain (5-1)-Will toss last from the 9-hole, winner of 5 of 15 starts here fits and is having a nice year. Putnam should have 7-time winner this year in the hunt.
3-Shady's Starlight (3-1)-Comes off an easy win versus this bunch and has taken 3 straight pictures. Sooner or later the streak will end but best to respect here. Has gone off at a good price in last 2 but that may not be the case this time.
7-Captain Zamperini (9/2)-Ode claimed for $10k on 7/29 and it turned out to be a very nice purchase. Has hit the board in 6 of 8 since the claim and goes back on Lasix tonight. Gets post relief and should be a square price.

Rae 6

4-Cajun Lightning (9/2)-Just missed versus the $20k claimers and then beat the $30's handily. Was claimed for $15k and since then has won 2 of 3 and looks like a major player again.
7-Rising To The Top (5-1)-Seven-year-old had had success at HoP winning 15 of 64 starts. Comes off an impressive win from the rail and can still be a threat from post 7.
8-Better Than Some (8-1)-Looking for a more alert start and should offer a solid price. Did race the back half in 54.3 in last. The pace could be lively tonight and the price should be right.


0.50 Pick 4

1,6,10/2,3,5/1,3,7/4,7,8
Total Bet=$40.50
 

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977LA DODGERS -978 ATLANTA
LA DODGERS are 11-1 SU (9.9 Units) when playing on Thursday in the current season.
 

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MLB
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 15

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TAMPA BAY (48 - 23) vs. HOUSTON (35 - 35) - 5:07 PM
BLAKE SNELL (L) vs. LUIS GARCIA (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-1 (+1.6 Units) against HOUSTON this season
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL this season . (Under=+4.0 Units)

BLAKE SNELL vs. HOUSTON since 1997
SNELL is 3-3 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 4.21 and a WHIP of 1.476.
His team's record is 5-3 (+3.8 units) in these starts. The OVER is 2-6. (-4.3 units)

LUIS GARCIA vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

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LA DODGERS (49 - 19) vs. ATLANTA (42 - 26) - 8:08 PM
CLAYTON KERSHAW (L) vs. BRYSE WILSON (R)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 42-26 (+9.6 Units) against the money line in all games this season.
ATLANTA is 50-32 (+21.1 Units) against the money line in road games after a loss over the last 3 seasons.
ATLANTA is 17-6 (+12.1 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
LA DODGERS are 94-58 (+33.4 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Thursday since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 2-1 (+1.6 Units) against LA DODGERS this season
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL this season . (Over=+0.8 Units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ATLANTA since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 12-2 (+8.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.8 units)

BRYSE WILSON vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
No recent starts.
 

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MLB

Thursday, October 15

Trend Report

Tampa Bay @ Houston
Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games
Tampa Bay is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay
Houston is 6-2 ATS in its last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

LA Dodgers @ Atlanta
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 6-1 ATS in its last 7 games on the road
LA Dodgers is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
 

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MLB public betting, line movement October 15
Patrick Everson

Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers can tie up the NLCS in Game 4 Thursday night against the Astros. Caesars sportsbooks opened the Dodgers -200 favorites and quickly moved to -215.

MLB betting odds once again give us two big games, with the NLCS and ALCS both on the Thursday schedule. The Los Angeles Dodgers aim to tie the NLCS in Game 4 against the Atlanta Braves, while the Tampa Bay Rays get their second crack at ending the ALCS against the Houston Astros.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s games.

MLB line movement

Los Angeles climbed into the NLCS with a bang, piling up 11 runs in the first inning of Game 3 and coasting to a 15-3 victory Tuesday to pull within 2-1 in the best-of-seven series. Now, the Dodgers plan to have scratched Game 2 starter Clayton Kershaw take the ball in the 8:08 p.m. ET Game 4.

Caesars sportbooks certainly expect Kershaw on the bump, opening the Dodgers -200 favorites late Wednesday night, with the Braves +180. Less than 30 minutes later, the line was up to Dodgers -215/Braves +190.

Houston nabbed its first win of the ALCS, topping Tampa Bay 4-2 in Game 4 Wednesday night, but the Rays still hold a commanding 3-1 lead entering a 5:07 p.m. ET Game 5. With Thursday’s starters not yet set, most sportsbooks didn’t put up a line Wednesday night, so check back for updates.

MLB public betting

With the line for NLCS Game 4 coming out late Wednesday night, the consensus sample was very limited. However, Kershaw’s corner was the early leader, with the Dodgers getting 67 percent of picks against the Braves.
 

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NFL betting tips for Week 6: Bet Now or Bet Later
Jason Logan

The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns are a combined 7-2 Over/Under to start the 2020 NFL season and meet in Week 6 with a Over/Under total of 50 points.

Planning ahead has been tough to do in 2020, with the COVID-19 pandemic leaving a lot up in the air. That’s been the case for the NFL season the past few weeks, with the schedule shaken up in reaction to coronavirus outbreaks.

But even with plenty of unknowns, you want to stay ahead of the action with the sharpest NFL betting strategy. And that means getting the best numbers now or waiting for the market to move in your favor.

Here are our NFL betting tips for the Week 6 odds to bet now and bet later.

Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Bet now

It didn’t take long for this line to start moving away from the Bucs after their bumbling loss in Chicago on Thursday. Tampa Bay opened strong, holding a 13-0 lead in the second quarter before the Bears defense found its claws. Chicago wouldn’t allow a single point more and the Bears beleaguered offense would do just enough to get the 20-13 victory.

The Packers enjoyed a bye in Week 5 but return to action with a perfect 4-0 SU and ATS mark entering this road stop in Florida. Aaron Rodgers is hoping to have top target Davante Adams back after missing two games (hamstring) and the Green Bay rushing attack continues to chew up the turf behind RB Aaron Jones. The Buccaneers do get that mini bye to lick their many wounds and should have some bodies back on offense. However, the defense lost its linchpin in veteran DL Vita Vea (broken leg) for the season.

This spread opened as big as Bucs -2.5 on Saturday at select books and was quickly steamed over the fence to Packers -1.5. Once the betting public starts looking at Week 6 odds Monday morning, there could be more movement toward the Cheeseheads, so get them as low as you can right now.


Arizona Cardinals at Dallas Cowboys (+2.5): Bet later

Dak Prescott’s ankle injury was as gruesome as it was deflating. The Cowboys captain will be out for the remainder of the season, leaving quarterback duties in the hands of veteran Andy Dalton. Losing Dak is bad but not devastating to the Dallas offense due to the surplus of skill players around Dalton (who’s a pretty solid option at No. 2).

The Cowboys try to move forward after Sunday’s sour win over the Giants when Arizona comes to AT&T Stadium. The Cardinals snuffed a two-game slide by chewing up a cupcake in the New York Jets Sunday and play their third straight road game in Dallas in Week 6. Arizona's defense may be without pass rush specialist Chandler Jones (biceps) for an extended period of time.

This spread hit the board as high as Cowboys +3, but most books are dealing +2.5. The sharp money may be on Dallas early, but the public is going to play against the Cowboys without Prescott. I say wait it out and see if this one goes back to three or higher.


Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (Over 50): Bet now

These AFC North rivalries used to be about hard-nosed defensive football, but this Week 6 divisional matchup is boasting a butt-load of points with an opening total at 50. Both the Browns and the Steelers have plenty of options on offense and are averaging 31.2 and 29.5 points per game respectively.

Cleveland is walking tall after a convincing win over the Indianapolis Colts, hanging 32 points on the NFL’s top-ranked defense. And while Baker Mayfield had X-rays on his ribs following the victory, the results were negative and he sounded fine in postgame interviews. Pittsburgh didn’t show any rust from its sudden bye week (due to Tennessee's COVID outbreak), out-punching Philadelphia 38-29. Combined, these foes have a 7-2 Over/Under record so far in 2020.

If you like the Over in this game – and why wouldn’t you – jump on it now. Those 50-point totals aren’t going to last long and, as of Sunday night, some 50.5 O/U's are popping up.


Chicago Bears at Carolina Panthers (Under 44): Bet later

The Bears got their groove back on defense in Thursday’s win over Tampa Bay. For the first time in two seasons, Chicago caused chaos with three sacks, two forced fumbles (one recovered) and knocked around Tom Brady so bad he couldn’t remember what down it was. As for the Bears offense, it scored 20 or fewer points for the third time this season and the 13th time in the past 21 games.

The Panthers continue to play above expectations, improving to 3-2 SU and ATS with a victory over the floundering Falcons in Week 5. While QB Teddy Bridgewater, offensive coordinator Joe Brady and the Carolina offense get the love for this turnaround, the Panthers stop unit has made it easy. The defense has allowed its last three opponents to muster scores of 16, 21, and 16, playing Under the number in each of those wins.

This total opened at 43.5 points and jumped to 44 with the first action coming in on the Under. We’ve seen some early Over money on Carolina games already this season, so if you like the Under wait it out and get a little greedy. See if you can get an extra half point on this Over/Under before firing away.
 

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105GEORGIA ST -106 ARKANSAS ST
GEORGIA ST is 12-2 ATS (9.8 Units) in road games in October games since 1992.
 

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 15

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

GEORGIA ST (1 - 1) at ARKANSAS ST (2 - 2) - 10/15/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA ST is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
GEORGIA ST is 21-8 ATS (+12.2 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARKANSAS ST is 1-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
ARKANSAS ST is 1-1 straight up against GEORGIA ST over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
 

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NCAAF

Week 7

Thursday’s game
Georgia State (1-1) @ Arkansas State (2-2)
— Georgia State split its first two games, losing in OT at Louisiana.
— This is the Panthers’ first road game this season.
— GSU has 8 starters back on offense, 8 starters back on defense.
— Panthers have 87 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Georgia State’s redshirt freshman QB has started twice.
— Panthers are 2-6-3 ATS in last 11 games as a road underdog.

— Arkansas State is already playing its 5th game; they’re 1-2 vs I-A teams.
— Red Wolves gave up 227-217 rushing yards in their losses to Coastal Carolina, Memphis- they pulled an upset at Kansas State.
— ASU has 9 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— Red Wolves have 128 returning starts on the offensive line.
— ASU’s plays two QB’s, who have a combined 17 starts.
— Under Anderson, Red Wolves are 18-12 ATS as a home favorite.

— Arkansas State won five of last six series games, but lost 52-38 to GSU last year- Panthers ran the ball for 340 yards, had 722 total yards.
— Panthers lost last three visits to Jonesboro, by 16-14-2 points.
 

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NCAAF

Week 7

Trend Report

Thursday, October 15

Georgia State @ Arkansas State
Georgia State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia State's last 6 games when playing Arkansas State
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Georgia State's last 6 games
Arkansas State
Arkansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Georgia State
Arkansas State is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
 

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Tech Trends - Week 7
Bruce Marshall

Week 7 of the College Football season kicks off on Wednesday, October 14 and we've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.

We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Oct. 15

GEORGIA STATE at ARKANSAS STATE (ESPN, 7:30 p.m.)

GSU on 1-7-3 spread skid as road dog since 2018, though did win and cover at home vs. ASU in 2019.

Tech Edge: Slight to Arkansas State, based on team trends.
 

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[h=2]Bonus Play from Mike Wynn[/h][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Free Pick: LA Dodgers/Atlanta Under 9½ Runs
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Back On Friday @ 11:00AM[/FONT]
[/FONT]
 

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[h=2]ree play from Easy Money Sports[/h][FONT=&quot]
Lee's Free Thursday Selection Is
Los Angeles w/Kershaw -1½ RUNS -145
Thank You for Stopping and Hopefully Shopping but Either Way Make Sure to Check Back for the Next Winning Update Including ANOTHER FREE SELECTION HERE for Thursday by Noon Eastern!
[/FONT]
 

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[h=2]Bonus Play from The Last Call[/h][FONT=&quot]Thursday's Bonus Play: Los Angeles Dodgers/Atlanta Braves over 9
[/FONT]
 

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[h=2]Bonus Play from High Stakes Syndicate[/h][FONT=&quot]Free Selection for Thursday: Dodgers/Braves under 9
[/FONT]
 

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[h=2]Bonus Play from Roz Wins[/h][FONT=&quot]Roz's THURSDAY, OCTOBER 15, 2020
Free Pick
MLB
975. Rays (2:07 PT / 5:07 ET)
[/FONT]
 

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[h=2]Bonus Play from Platinum Plays[/h][FONT=&quot][FONT=&quot]Your Free Pick: the UAB Blazers -13½ over Western Kentucky
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]Back Again Friday At 11:00AM[/FONT]
[/FONT]
 

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[h=2]Bonus Play from Nevada Sharpshooter[/h][FONT=&quot]
Your free winner for Thursday : HOUSTON/TAMPA BAY OVER the total of 8½ runs
Back on Friday @ Noon Eastern/11:00 AM Central with another Free Pick
[/FONT]
 

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[h=2]Bonus Play from Huddle Up Sports[/h][h=2]
Bonus Play:
Middle Tennessee State -6'
College FB Saturday

Back again Friday with another Bonus Play for Saturday
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