NCAAF
Long Sheet
Friday, October 16
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SMU (4 - 0) at TULANE (2 - 2) - 10/16/2020, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
TULANE is 99-132 ATS (-46.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 2-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
SMU is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BYU (4 - 0) at HOUSTON (1 - 0) - 10/16/2020, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
Long Sheet
Friday, October 16
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SMU (4 - 0) at TULANE (2 - 2) - 10/16/2020, 6:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 31-51 ATS (-25.1 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.
TULANE is 99-132 ATS (-46.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
Head-to-Head Series History
SMU is 2-0 against the spread versus TULANE over the last 3 seasons
SMU is 2-0 straight up against TULANE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
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BYU (4 - 0) at HOUSTON (1 - 0) - 10/16/2020, 9:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.
Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.
NCAAF
Week 7
Trend Report
Friday, October 16
Southern Methodist @ Tulane
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tulane
Southern Methodist is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tulane
Tulane
Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Tulane is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
Brigham Young @ Houston
Brigham Young
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brigham Young's last 6 games on the road
Brigham Young is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
Week 7
Trend Report
Friday, October 16
Southern Methodist @ Tulane
Southern Methodist
Southern Methodist is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Tulane
Southern Methodist is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tulane
Tulane
Tulane is 7-1 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Tulane is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games at home
Brigham Young @ Houston
Brigham Young
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Brigham Young's last 6 games on the road
Brigham Young is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games
Houston
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games at home
Houston is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games
NCAAF
Week 7
Friday’s games
SMU (4-0) @ Tulane (2-2)
— SMU scored 42 ppg in winning its three games vs I-A opponents.
— Mustangs have 7 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— SMU has 92 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mustangs’ senior QB has started 33 games.
— SMU is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games as a road favorite.
— Tulane split its first four games; they blew a 24-0 lead in one of their losses.
— Green Wave’s last three games went over the total.
— Tulane had a +5 turnover ratio LW, still lost 49-31 in Houston.
— Tulane has 5 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Green Wave has 70 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tulane’s senior QB has started 13 games.
— Green Wave covered its last five games as a home underdog.
— SMU won five in row, eight of last nine series games, with three of last four wins by 4 or fewer points.
— Underdogs covered five of last six series games.
— SMU won three of last four visits here, last two by 27-23/35-31 scores.
BYU (4-0) @ Houston (1-0)
— BYU won its first four games, scoring an average of 43.8 ppg.
— BYU has 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— BYU has 110 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU’s junior QB has started 20 games.
— Under Sitake, BYU is 4-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— Houston beat Tulane 49-31 in its opener LW, despite its minus-5 turnover ratio.
— Houston has 10 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Houston has 71 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Houston’s junior QB has started 10 games.
— Houston is 1-3 ATS in last four games as a home underdog.
— BYU won last two series games, 33-25/47-46; Houston covered both games, which were back in 2013-14.
Week 7
Friday’s games
SMU (4-0) @ Tulane (2-2)
— SMU scored 42 ppg in winning its three games vs I-A opponents.
— Mustangs have 7 starters back on offense, 6 starters back on defense.
— SMU has 92 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Mustangs’ senior QB has started 33 games.
— SMU is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games as a road favorite.
— Tulane split its first four games; they blew a 24-0 lead in one of their losses.
— Green Wave’s last three games went over the total.
— Tulane had a +5 turnover ratio LW, still lost 49-31 in Houston.
— Tulane has 5 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— Green Wave has 70 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Tulane’s senior QB has started 13 games.
— Green Wave covered its last five games as a home underdog.
— SMU won five in row, eight of last nine series games, with three of last four wins by 4 or fewer points.
— Underdogs covered five of last six series games.
— SMU won three of last four visits here, last two by 27-23/35-31 scores.
BYU (4-0) @ Houston (1-0)
— BYU won its first four games, scoring an average of 43.8 ppg.
— BYU has 8 starters back on offense, 7 starters back on defense.
— BYU has 110 returning starts on the offensive line.
— BYU’s junior QB has started 20 games.
— Under Sitake, BYU is 4-7 ATS as a road favorite.
— Houston beat Tulane 49-31 in its opener LW, despite its minus-5 turnover ratio.
— Houston has 10 starters back on offense, 9 starters back on defense.
— Houston has 71 returning starts on the offensive line.
— Houston’s junior QB has started 10 games.
— Houston is 1-3 ATS in last four games as a home underdog.
— BYU won last two series games, 33-25/47-46; Houston covered both games, which were back in 2013-14.
Tech Trends - Week 7
Bruce Marshall
Week 7 of the College Football season kicks off on Wednesday, October 14 and we've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.
We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Friday, Oct. 16
SMU at TULANE (ESPN, 6:00 p.m.)
SMU has won outright last five meetings, covering four of those.
Ponies 8-1 vs. spread in first five games of season since LY.
Though Wave 5-0 as home dog since 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to SMU, based on series trends.
BYU at HOUSTON (ESPN, 9:30 p.m.)
UH finally on the board in 2020 with win over Tulane.
Though BYU is 4-0 SU and 3-1 vs. line, it was 0-5 as visiting chalk LY before winning 2020 opener at Navy.
Tech Edge: Slight to Houston, based on extended trends.
Bruce Marshall
Week 7 of the College Football season kicks off on Wednesday, October 14 and we've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups.
We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.
Friday, Oct. 16
SMU at TULANE (ESPN, 6:00 p.m.)
SMU has won outright last five meetings, covering four of those.
Ponies 8-1 vs. spread in first five games of season since LY.
Though Wave 5-0 as home dog since 2018.
Tech Edge: Slight to SMU, based on series trends.
BYU at HOUSTON (ESPN, 9:30 p.m.)
UH finally on the board in 2020 with win over Tulane.
Though BYU is 4-0 SU and 3-1 vs. line, it was 0-5 as visiting chalk LY before winning 2020 opener at Navy.
Tech Edge: Slight to Houston, based on extended trends.
Al Cimaglia: Hoosier Park Sires Stakes Pick 4 Analysis
October 16, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Hoosier Park has a huge card ready to roll this evening. The best state bred two and three-year olds as well aged pacers and trotters will be competing in Indiana Sires Stakes Championships. The 0.50 Pick 4 starts in Race 3, it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 3
7-Something To Me (4-1)-Finished 2nd to the morning line chalk in last 2. Was off for 3 weeks before last start and now comes right back. Gets a post edge and maybe De Long will blast out and get on the engine or in the 2 hole.
9-Somethingbeautiful (6/5)-This has been the best filly all year winning 7 of 8 and will be singled on many tickets. Hasn't started from the 9-hole before, did win from post 8. Can be posing again with a decent trip.
Race 4
2-Breckenridge (5/2)-Winner of 5 of 7 starts at HoP also has won 4 straight. Morning line chalk looks the part but I'm thinking this will be a very competitive affair.
3-Swingforthefences (9/2)-Faced some tough fillies at the Red Mile in last couple and now comes back home. Has been in the money in 6 of 7 races with 2 wins. Best to respect, might be overlooked at the windows and could offer a solid price.
5-Bridge To Success (8-1)-Broke maiden in last and was used a couple of times. Should be fresh, has raced only 6 times and might be peaking with big money on the line.
6-Brookview Bolt (3-1)-Seems to do best work when leading coming into the lane. Not sure that will be the case tonight and will likely be a short price but will respect connections.
8-Illini Earl (6-1)-The post will make the price and has the speed to beat this group. Trace Tetrick is steering as usual and the key to winning will be the trip. Was off about 3 weeks before last start and could be sitting on a big try.
Race 5
2-Tellmebaboutit (8/5)-Competitive 4-year-old always is in the mix and has faced tough company. Gets a post edge over #6 and will likely need it in what appears to be a 2 horse race.
6-Little Rocket Man (7/5)-Beat #2 by 6 lengths in the Haston Memorial back in August and left from the 7 hole that day. Tim Tetrick takes a seat and that shouldn't hurt. Rockin Image 4-year-old has won over 60% of his starts.
Race 6
4-Roll Em (4-1)-It appears Hiteman trainee was raced from the back, as in way back in its last start. If the chart is correct, this 2-year-old was 16 lengths behind at the half and then sizzled the 2nd half in 53.2. Could leave and get an up-close seat tonight with main foes starting on the outside. Best to not overlook.
7-Jewels Virgin (5/2)-Burke trainee fits with this crew but does jump off-stride at times. Figures to be in the hunt but might be over bet.
9-T's Raider II (3-1)-The post makes this a challenge but this gelding is usually in the mix and will be again with the right trip. If the pace is hot chances to be posing go up and the Erv Miller trainee does deserve respect.
0.50 Pick 4
7,9/2,3,5,6,8/2,6/4,7,9
Total Bet=$30
October 16, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Hoosier Park has a huge card ready to roll this evening. The best state bred two and three-year olds as well aged pacers and trotters will be competing in Indiana Sires Stakes Championships. The 0.50 Pick 4 starts in Race 3, it has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.
Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.
Race 3
7-Something To Me (4-1)-Finished 2nd to the morning line chalk in last 2. Was off for 3 weeks before last start and now comes right back. Gets a post edge and maybe De Long will blast out and get on the engine or in the 2 hole.
9-Somethingbeautiful (6/5)-This has been the best filly all year winning 7 of 8 and will be singled on many tickets. Hasn't started from the 9-hole before, did win from post 8. Can be posing again with a decent trip.
Race 4
2-Breckenridge (5/2)-Winner of 5 of 7 starts at HoP also has won 4 straight. Morning line chalk looks the part but I'm thinking this will be a very competitive affair.
3-Swingforthefences (9/2)-Faced some tough fillies at the Red Mile in last couple and now comes back home. Has been in the money in 6 of 7 races with 2 wins. Best to respect, might be overlooked at the windows and could offer a solid price.
5-Bridge To Success (8-1)-Broke maiden in last and was used a couple of times. Should be fresh, has raced only 6 times and might be peaking with big money on the line.
6-Brookview Bolt (3-1)-Seems to do best work when leading coming into the lane. Not sure that will be the case tonight and will likely be a short price but will respect connections.
8-Illini Earl (6-1)-The post will make the price and has the speed to beat this group. Trace Tetrick is steering as usual and the key to winning will be the trip. Was off about 3 weeks before last start and could be sitting on a big try.
Race 5
2-Tellmebaboutit (8/5)-Competitive 4-year-old always is in the mix and has faced tough company. Gets a post edge over #6 and will likely need it in what appears to be a 2 horse race.
6-Little Rocket Man (7/5)-Beat #2 by 6 lengths in the Haston Memorial back in August and left from the 7 hole that day. Tim Tetrick takes a seat and that shouldn't hurt. Rockin Image 4-year-old has won over 60% of his starts.
Race 6
4-Roll Em (4-1)-It appears Hiteman trainee was raced from the back, as in way back in its last start. If the chart is correct, this 2-year-old was 16 lengths behind at the half and then sizzled the 2nd half in 53.2. Could leave and get an up-close seat tonight with main foes starting on the outside. Best to not overlook.
7-Jewels Virgin (5/2)-Burke trainee fits with this crew but does jump off-stride at times. Figures to be in the hunt but might be over bet.
9-T's Raider II (3-1)-The post makes this a challenge but this gelding is usually in the mix and will be again with the right trip. If the pace is hot chances to be posing go up and the Erv Miller trainee does deserve respect.
0.50 Pick 4
7,9/2,3,5,6,8/2,6/4,7,9
Total Bet=$30
Weekly Bankroll Builder: October 16 Stronach 5 Play
October 14, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau
Weekly Bankroll Builder: October 16 Stronach 5 Play
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, after hitting for $256 on the $16 backup ticket last week, and we’ve got another 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass
that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update. ***
Leg 1: Gulfstream Park West Race 8 (3:58 ET) – 3up 12.5k MCL at 7 ½ furlongs (turf)
We kick off what will be a very unorthodox sequence, so you’ll have to bear with me a bit, as there will be some bobbing and weaving going on. I’m singling #1 GUACO (5-2) to kick it off, as he drew far better than his key rivals, and will run on the turf for the first time since the Kopaj claim, which says to me he’s going to be better than the 4th on the grass two-back, and even that run might win this.
Pk5 A horses: 1 (listed in order of preference)
The unorthodox part enters the building on the B-level, as I’m going to use several, which will cause me to have to narrow down to some Super A’s later in the sequence (see below). The second-level contenders are tough to separate, so I’ll just blanket them and use #10 Derby Codde (10-1), #3 Elbrus (12-1), #4 Initforthelove (20-1), #11 Cuy (5-1), and #9 Bomoseen (8-1).
Pk5 B horses: 10,3,4,11,9
*** The Super A’s are as follows ***
Leg 2: #4 Noble Way
Leg 5: #2 Homegrown
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 2: Laurel Park Race 7 (4:18 ET) – 3up 25k SAL at 6 furlongs
Many may be singling #4 Noble Way (9-5), who wins this for fun if he runs back to his last, but he hasn’t been out since that big win in January, and it was in the slop too, and his two fast track runs weren’t as sharp, so I’m picking him on top, but I’m not singling him either. I’m reaching a bit with #1 Tastes Like Plaid (12-1), who rises in class, but the N2L win last time was sharp, and he can settle off what looks like a contested pace too, so just maybe he can handle this tougher group. The cutback might work in the favor of #3 Marden (6-1), who has been running long with middling success, but is another who should settle and make a run into all the speed.
Pk5 A horses: 4,1,3
I’m probably using a few too many on the top line, so there will be no backups here.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #2 Revolutionary Road (8-1), #5 Seven on the Rocks (9-2)
Leg 3: Laurel Park Race 8 (5:02 ET) – 3upfm 10k MCL at 1 mile
It’s going to be tough to get around #6 Thunderinthevalley (9-5), who simply looks better than a very suspect group, was just 2nd to a rousing winner, and well clear of 3rd, who is back in today and one of his “main” rivals.
Pk5 A horses: 6
I’m going to save a few bullets and not use any backups, since #4 Why Not You (8-1) just isn’t consistent enough to use, and the aforementioned “main” rival, #8 My Souper Sally (5-1) just lost easily to ‘Thunder and really has no viable reason why he would bridge the gap, let alone overturn it.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #4 Why Not You (8-1), #8 My Souper Sally (5-1)
Leg 4: Santa Anita Race 4 (5:08 ET) – 2yo Cal-bred MSW at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)
With the proven runners not showing much, and the firsters a seemingly mixed bag, I’ll spread deep here and use every that looks logical; #5 That Corey (3-1), who has Reddam’s stable jock Gutierrez, a potentially big deal because O’Neill and Reddam have #10 here too; #4 Lil Nas (5-2), who keeps Prat after dueling and tiring on debut on the dirt; #8 The Chosen Vron (6-1), who lures Van Dyke; #6 Circleofchampions (5-1), with Rispoli riding a firster for Gaines (enough said); and #7 By Moonlight (5-1), a good 3rd on debut in an open MCL on the dirt.
Pk5 A horses: 5,4,8,6,7
I’d like to think I’ve got all the bases covered with the five-pack above, so there will be no backups.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields Race 3 (5:51 ET) – 2yo 12.5k MCL at 1 mile
Budget players will be singling #2 Homegrown (9-5), who’s 2nd last time is a month the best here, but that was sprinting, and there are a few others who can make the big second-race improvement, so I’ll only single him on the Leg 1 backup ticket. The second-race improvement angle could work for #3 Ynot Tony (8-1) and #8 Autism Siblings (5-1), who both stretch out and drop out of an MSW, and #5 Autism Savant (3-1), who dueled and tired on debut and could shake loose going longer.
Pk5 A horses: 2,3,8,5
No one else has much appeal, so let’s stick with the quartet above and call it a day.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: NONE
The tickets:
Main Ticket: 1 with 4,3,1 with 6 with 5,4,8,6,7 with 2,3,8,5 =$60
Leg 1 B Backup: 10,3,4,11,9 with 4 with 6 with 5,4,8,6,7 with 2 = $25
October 14, 2020 | By Brian Nadeau
Weekly Bankroll Builder: October 16 Stronach 5 Play
Back to battle in this week’s Stronach 5, after hitting for $256 on the $16 backup ticket last week, and we’ve got another 100k guarantee, and a prospective pool that should far surpass
that. To refresh, the Stronach 5 is a Pk5 wager spread across as many as four tracks and up to three surfaces (dirt, Tapeta and turf), inside of 90 minutes, with a $1 minimum and ridiculously low 12% takeout. I’ll be putting together some prospective tickets in this space each week for a wager that is undoubtedly as good as it gets for the bettors.
*** Please take note that this analysis is done upwards of 48 hours in advance, so obviously weather, track conditions and especially late scratches can and will have an effect. Please check back around 4pm Friday for an update. ***
Leg 1: Gulfstream Park West Race 8 (3:58 ET) – 3up 12.5k MCL at 7 ½ furlongs (turf)
We kick off what will be a very unorthodox sequence, so you’ll have to bear with me a bit, as there will be some bobbing and weaving going on. I’m singling #1 GUACO (5-2) to kick it off, as he drew far better than his key rivals, and will run on the turf for the first time since the Kopaj claim, which says to me he’s going to be better than the 4th on the grass two-back, and even that run might win this.
Pk5 A horses: 1 (listed in order of preference)
The unorthodox part enters the building on the B-level, as I’m going to use several, which will cause me to have to narrow down to some Super A’s later in the sequence (see below). The second-level contenders are tough to separate, so I’ll just blanket them and use #10 Derby Codde (10-1), #3 Elbrus (12-1), #4 Initforthelove (20-1), #11 Cuy (5-1), and #9 Bomoseen (8-1).
Pk5 B horses: 10,3,4,11,9
*** The Super A’s are as follows ***
Leg 2: #4 Noble Way
Leg 5: #2 Homegrown
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 2: Laurel Park Race 7 (4:18 ET) – 3up 25k SAL at 6 furlongs
Many may be singling #4 Noble Way (9-5), who wins this for fun if he runs back to his last, but he hasn’t been out since that big win in January, and it was in the slop too, and his two fast track runs weren’t as sharp, so I’m picking him on top, but I’m not singling him either. I’m reaching a bit with #1 Tastes Like Plaid (12-1), who rises in class, but the N2L win last time was sharp, and he can settle off what looks like a contested pace too, so just maybe he can handle this tougher group. The cutback might work in the favor of #3 Marden (6-1), who has been running long with middling success, but is another who should settle and make a run into all the speed.
Pk5 A horses: 4,1,3
I’m probably using a few too many on the top line, so there will be no backups here.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #2 Revolutionary Road (8-1), #5 Seven on the Rocks (9-2)
Leg 3: Laurel Park Race 8 (5:02 ET) – 3upfm 10k MCL at 1 mile
It’s going to be tough to get around #6 Thunderinthevalley (9-5), who simply looks better than a very suspect group, was just 2nd to a rousing winner, and well clear of 3rd, who is back in today and one of his “main” rivals.
Pk5 A horses: 6
I’m going to save a few bullets and not use any backups, since #4 Why Not You (8-1) just isn’t consistent enough to use, and the aforementioned “main” rival, #8 My Souper Sally (5-1) just lost easily to ‘Thunder and really has no viable reason why he would bridge the gap, let alone overturn it.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: #4 Why Not You (8-1), #8 My Souper Sally (5-1)
Leg 4: Santa Anita Race 4 (5:08 ET) – 2yo Cal-bred MSW at 5 ½ furlongs (turf)
With the proven runners not showing much, and the firsters a seemingly mixed bag, I’ll spread deep here and use every that looks logical; #5 That Corey (3-1), who has Reddam’s stable jock Gutierrez, a potentially big deal because O’Neill and Reddam have #10 here too; #4 Lil Nas (5-2), who keeps Prat after dueling and tiring on debut on the dirt; #8 The Chosen Vron (6-1), who lures Van Dyke; #6 Circleofchampions (5-1), with Rispoli riding a firster for Gaines (enough said); and #7 By Moonlight (5-1), a good 3rd on debut in an open MCL on the dirt.
Pk5 A horses: 5,4,8,6,7
I’d like to think I’ve got all the bases covered with the five-pack above, so there will be no backups.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: NONE
Leg 5: Golden Gate Fields Race 3 (5:51 ET) – 2yo 12.5k MCL at 1 mile
Budget players will be singling #2 Homegrown (9-5), who’s 2nd last time is a month the best here, but that was sprinting, and there are a few others who can make the big second-race improvement, so I’ll only single him on the Leg 1 backup ticket. The second-race improvement angle could work for #3 Ynot Tony (8-1) and #8 Autism Siblings (5-1), who both stretch out and drop out of an MSW, and #5 Autism Savant (3-1), who dueled and tired on debut and could shake loose going longer.
Pk5 A horses: 2,3,8,5
No one else has much appeal, so let’s stick with the quartet above and call it a day.
Pk5 B horses: NONE
Potential B add-ins: NONE
The tickets:
Main Ticket: 1 with 4,3,1 with 6 with 5,4,8,6,7 with 2,3,8,5 =$60
Leg 1 B Backup: 10,3,4,11,9 with 4 with 6 with 5,4,8,6,7 with 2 = $25
Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/16/20
October 16, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Cassie Belle; 6-Elgofranco
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Cassie Belle is an 11-race maiden and probably not one to trust, but if she repeats her last race in this modest state-bred turf sprint for fillies and mares she should be able to earn her diploma. After rallying widest and keeping to her task in the final furlong, the S. McCarthy-trained filly wound up second in a similar event over this course and distance last month and not much more will be needed to earn a diploma. In a race that projects to have soft early fractions, Elgofranco seems likely to be on or near the lead throughout. Despite always vulnerable under pressure in the final furlong, the daughter of Square Eddie should be able to stick around a long time against this group, and if she can shake loose early she could get brave late. Let’s try to survive and advance using these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Capital Heat; 4-Little Miss Ellie
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Little Miss Ellie, second in all three career outings to date, should finally break through with a win today in a modest five-runner maiden claiming extended sprint for older fillies and mares. She’s earned better-than-par speed figures for the level in her last pair and was more than three lengths clear of the rest in her most recent outing at Del Mar. With a healthy recent series of workouts and the switch to F. Prat, the daughter of Richard’s Kid should be able to justify her short price. For those wishing to protect in rolling exotic play, you can consider using on a ticket or two Capital Heat, a first-time blinkers on play getting a huge break in the weights with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer. With a good break from the rail, she should be on or near the early lead and have a chance from there.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Little Nas; 5-That Corey
View Video Analysis
Forecast: The known element doesn’t really inspire in this state-bred maiden 2-yer-old turf sprint so let’s go with a fresh face on top. That Corey is bred win early and handle grass (Square Eddie), and the B. Cecil-trained colt has done some decent work in the a.m. to indicate he has at least some ability. He certainly won’t have to be a world beater to beat this bunch. Also worth considering is Lil Nas, a second-time starter from the P. Eurton barn (solid stats with this angle). The homebred colt flashed good speed for a half before faltering in his debut but should stick better today with the switch to grass. We’ll also take it as a positive that F. Prat rides him back. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying That Corey on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Flying Business
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Flying Business has much in her favor as the 9/5 morning line favorite in this $20,000 main track dash restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Drawn comfortably outside, adding blinkers, and switching to F. Prat, the daughter of Gervinho makes her first start since being claimed by M. Glatt (a powerful 25% with the first-off-the-claim angle) and should return to winning form at this six and one-half furlong distance that compliments her stalking style. A good, healthy recent work tab that includes a bullet three-furlong drill
36 flat, fastest of 21) combined with the confident boost in class from the $12,500 level are other positive factors that make her rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:13 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Gypsy Spirit; 6-Quick
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Gypsy Spirit needs early cover and a patient ride and received the type of ride and trip that brought out her best in a first-level allowance score over this course and distance last month. In a race that projects to have a strong early pace, the English-bred filly may be capable of winning right back despite the obligatory raise in class. F. Prat knows her well, stays aboard, and should produce her at the quarter pole and have dead aim the length of the lane. Quick was in too tough in the Mabee S.-G2 at Del Mar last month but she’s back where she belongs today and is another that with patient handling could make some series noise when the pressure is turned on. She defeated Gypsy Spirt on the square when they met in July and is reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli, who has quickly become J. Sadler bar’s “go-to” rider. She can be effective on the lead or from off the pace and has hit the board in all three starts over the local lawn.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:44 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Conquest Cobra; 6-Secret Touch
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Secret Touch easily disposed of a $16,000 field at Del Mar in late August and today is triple-jumped in class by new trainer M. Glatt in what we’ll take as a strong sign of confidence (as stated in our fourth race analysis, this barn has superiors stats with the first-off-the-claim angle). The veteran gelding retains U. Rispoli and projects to enjoy a comfortable pace-stalking trip outside, just where he likes to be. Conquest Cobra, fresh from a fast, highly-rated win vs. $20,000 foes here last month, moves up two levels and gets a huge break in the weights with the switch to the 10 lb. bug rider J. Pyfer. A five-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Pioneerof the Nile always has been genuine and consistent. We’ll give Secret Touch a very slight edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:14 PT Grade: B+ (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 2-Mircorithms; 5-Surfing Star
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Microrithms has won both of his starts since returning off a long layoff in extra game fashion and seems well-spotted to extend his overall winning streak to four in this second-level optional claiming sprint that came up a tad light in the early speed department. The projected pace flow should allow the B. Baffert-trained colt to secure his preferred “controlling speed” trip and justify what surely will be strong favoritism. Surfing Star may be worth some consideration. A closing third behind our top pick when they met in late August at Del Mar, the B. Headley-trained horse appeared sluggish and rusty during the early stages but finished with interest and seems certain to move forward off the effort. First or second in five of six career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Surf Cat may still be a race away and find six furlong too sharp but is worth including on your ticket as a back-up or a saver.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 7: Post 4:29 PT Grade: B
Single: 4-Illapawnie
Forecast: Let’s take a stand with the class-dropping Illapawnie in this restricted (nw-2) $20,000 claiming sprint. The B. Wright-trained filly is simply better than these on her best day, and even though she was well-beaten last time out when facing much strong first-level allowance foes, the daughter of Warrior’s Reward earned a “buried” number that actually puts her right in the hunt even without improvement. A repeat of her starter’s allowance score two runs back is more than good enough. Let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 3-1;
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B- (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 5-Cheerful Charm; 7-Rockie Causeway
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Rockie Causeway is improving with racing and appears set to graduate in this mile turf affair for state-bred maiden fillies and mares. Her speed figures are gradually rising with each outing plus she’ll be adding blinkers and switching to U. Rispoli. A small concern is that she’s been a beaten favorite in her last pair (though running well in both) and the R. Baltas barn has been on a cold streak for a month, but the daughter of Giant’s Causeway still seems pretty solid against this group. Cheerful Charm retains F. Prat (who takes off ‘Causeway to ride her) and is improving in her own right, though not as fast on pure numbers as our top pick. This will be just her third career start, so the daughter of Boisterous should continue to progress. She should enjoy a good second flight, stalking trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 4:59 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Lady Brexit; 6-Whoa Nessie
Forecast: Let’s try to get survive using just two in this $6,250 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. Lady Brexit ships in from Indiana Downs while making her first start for the J. Wong barn (33% with this angle) so considerably improvement can be expected. The daughter of English Channel filly has good tactical speed and projects to enjoy a nice, trouble-free, stalking trip. Whoa Nessie looked quite good winning a recent $4,000 starter’s allowance affair in her first outing over the local lawn and while earning a speed figure good enough to make her capable of extending her winning streak to three. She can be tough on the lead or from a stalking position.
October 16, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.
RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Cassie Belle; 6-Elgofranco
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Cassie Belle is an 11-race maiden and probably not one to trust, but if she repeats her last race in this modest state-bred turf sprint for fillies and mares she should be able to earn her diploma. After rallying widest and keeping to her task in the final furlong, the S. McCarthy-trained filly wound up second in a similar event over this course and distance last month and not much more will be needed to earn a diploma. In a race that projects to have soft early fractions, Elgofranco seems likely to be on or near the lead throughout. Despite always vulnerable under pressure in the final furlong, the daughter of Square Eddie should be able to stick around a long time against this group, and if she can shake loose early she could get brave late. Let’s try to survive and advance using these two in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:33 PT Grade: X
Use: 1-Capital Heat; 4-Little Miss Ellie
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Little Miss Ellie, second in all three career outings to date, should finally break through with a win today in a modest five-runner maiden claiming extended sprint for older fillies and mares. She’s earned better-than-par speed figures for the level in her last pair and was more than three lengths clear of the rest in her most recent outing at Del Mar. With a healthy recent series of workouts and the switch to F. Prat, the daughter of Richard’s Kid should be able to justify her short price. For those wishing to protect in rolling exotic play, you can consider using on a ticket or two Capital Heat, a first-time blinkers on play getting a huge break in the weights with the switch to bug girl J. Pyfer. With a good break from the rail, she should be on or near the early lead and have a chance from there.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:08 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Little Nas; 5-That Corey
View Video Analysis
Forecast: The known element doesn’t really inspire in this state-bred maiden 2-yer-old turf sprint so let’s go with a fresh face on top. That Corey is bred win early and handle grass (Square Eddie), and the B. Cecil-trained colt has done some decent work in the a.m. to indicate he has at least some ability. He certainly won’t have to be a world beater to beat this bunch. Also worth considering is Lil Nas, a second-time starter from the P. Eurton barn (solid stats with this angle). The homebred colt flashed good speed for a half before faltering in his debut but should stick better today with the switch to grass. We’ll also take it as a positive that F. Prat rides him back. Both should be included in rolling exotic play; we’ll have a few extra tickets keying That Corey on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:41 PT Grade: B+
Single: 6-Flying Business
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Flying Business has much in her favor as the 9/5 morning line favorite in this $20,000 main track dash restricted to 3-year-old fillies. Drawn comfortably outside, adding blinkers, and switching to F. Prat, the daughter of Gervinho makes her first start since being claimed by M. Glatt (a powerful 25% with the first-off-the-claim angle) and should return to winning form at this six and one-half furlong distance that compliments her stalking style. A good, healthy recent work tab that includes a bullet three-furlong drill
36 flat, fastest of 21) combined with the confident boost in class from the $12,500 level are other positive factors that make her rolling exotic single.*
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RACE 5: Post: 3:13 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Gypsy Spirit; 6-Quick
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Gypsy Spirit needs early cover and a patient ride and received the type of ride and trip that brought out her best in a first-level allowance score over this course and distance last month. In a race that projects to have a strong early pace, the English-bred filly may be capable of winning right back despite the obligatory raise in class. F. Prat knows her well, stays aboard, and should produce her at the quarter pole and have dead aim the length of the lane. Quick was in too tough in the Mabee S.-G2 at Del Mar last month but she’s back where she belongs today and is another that with patient handling could make some series noise when the pressure is turned on. She defeated Gypsy Spirt on the square when they met in July and is reunited with “win rider” U. Rispoli, who has quickly become J. Sadler bar’s “go-to” rider. She can be effective on the lead or from off the pace and has hit the board in all three starts over the local lawn.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:44 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Conquest Cobra; 6-Secret Touch
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Secret Touch easily disposed of a $16,000 field at Del Mar in late August and today is triple-jumped in class by new trainer M. Glatt in what we’ll take as a strong sign of confidence (as stated in our fourth race analysis, this barn has superiors stats with the first-off-the-claim angle). The veteran gelding retains U. Rispoli and projects to enjoy a comfortable pace-stalking trip outside, just where he likes to be. Conquest Cobra, fresh from a fast, highly-rated win vs. $20,000 foes here last month, moves up two levels and gets a huge break in the weights with the switch to the 10 lb. bug rider J. Pyfer. A five-time winner over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Pioneerof the Nile always has been genuine and consistent. We’ll give Secret Touch a very slight edge on top but include both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:14 PT Grade: B+ (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 2-Mircorithms; 5-Surfing Star
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Microrithms has won both of his starts since returning off a long layoff in extra game fashion and seems well-spotted to extend his overall winning streak to four in this second-level optional claiming sprint that came up a tad light in the early speed department. The projected pace flow should allow the B. Baffert-trained colt to secure his preferred “controlling speed” trip and justify what surely will be strong favoritism. Surfing Star may be worth some consideration. A closing third behind our top pick when they met in late August at Del Mar, the B. Headley-trained horse appeared sluggish and rusty during the early stages but finished with interest and seems certain to move forward off the effort. First or second in five of six career starts over the Santa Anita main track, the son of Surf Cat may still be a race away and find six furlong too sharp but is worth including on your ticket as a back-up or a saver.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 7: Post 4:29 PT Grade: B
Single: 4-Illapawnie
Forecast: Let’s take a stand with the class-dropping Illapawnie in this restricted (nw-2) $20,000 claiming sprint. The B. Wright-trained filly is simply better than these on her best day, and even though she was well-beaten last time out when facing much strong first-level allowance foes, the daughter of Warrior’s Reward earned a “buried” number that actually puts her right in the hunt even without improvement. A repeat of her starter’s allowance score two runs back is more than good enough. Let’s make her a win play and rolling exotic single at or near her morning line of 3-1;
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B- (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 5-Cheerful Charm; 7-Rockie Causeway
View Video Analysis
Forecast: Rockie Causeway is improving with racing and appears set to graduate in this mile turf affair for state-bred maiden fillies and mares. Her speed figures are gradually rising with each outing plus she’ll be adding blinkers and switching to U. Rispoli. A small concern is that she’s been a beaten favorite in her last pair (though running well in both) and the R. Baltas barn has been on a cold streak for a month, but the daughter of Giant’s Causeway still seems pretty solid against this group. Cheerful Charm retains F. Prat (who takes off ‘Causeway to ride her) and is improving in her own right, though not as fast on pure numbers as our top pick. This will be just her third career start, so the daughter of Boisterous should continue to progress. She should enjoy a good second flight, stalking trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 4:59 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Lady Brexit; 6-Whoa Nessie
Forecast: Let’s try to get survive using just two in this $6,250 claiming turf miler for fillies and mares. Lady Brexit ships in from Indiana Downs while making her first start for the J. Wong barn (33% with this angle) so considerably improvement can be expected. The daughter of English Channel filly has good tactical speed and projects to enjoy a nice, trouble-free, stalking trip. Whoa Nessie looked quite good winning a recent $4,000 starter’s allowance affair in her first outing over the local lawn and while earning a speed figure good enough to make her capable of extending her winning streak to three. She can be tough on the lead or from a stalking position.
| Rk | Sports Services | Free Sports Picks |
| 1. | NSA(The Legend) | CFB – Arkansas +1.5 |
| 2. | Gameday Network | CFB – Notre Dame over 62 |
| 3. | VegasSI.com | CFB – Central Florida -3 |
| 4. | Vegas Line Crushers | CFB – Texas St under 58 |
| 5. | Sports Action 365 | CFB – North Carolina -13.5 |
| 6. | Point Spread Report | CFB – Duke +4.5 |
| 7. | Lou Panelli | CFB – SMU -6.5 |
| 8. | Gerry “Big Cat” Andino | CFB – Louisiana Tech +13.5 |
| 9. | VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club | CFB – Alabama -4.5 |
| 10. | William E. Stockton | CFB – Midd Tenn St -6.5 |
| 11. | Vincent Pioli | CFB – Memphis +3 |
| 12. | Steve “Scoop” Kendall | CFB – UAB -14 |
| 13. | SCORE | CFB – Syracuse +3 |
| 14. | East Coast Line Movers | CFB – Auburn -3.5 |
| 15. | Tony Campone | CFB – Temple under 54 |
| 16. | Chicago Sports Group | CFB – BYU -5 |
| 17. | Hollywood Sportsline | CFB – Memphis under 73.5 |
| 18. | VIP Action | CFB – Texas St under 58 |
| 19. | South Beach Sports | CFB – Kansas +22.5 |
| 20. | Las Vegas Sports Commission | CFB – Wake Forest +2.5 |
| 21. | NY Players Club | CFB – BYU over 62.5 |
| 22. | Fred Callahan | CFB – SMU -6.5 |
| 23. | Las Vegas Private CEO Club | CFB – Virginia Tech -12 |
| 24. | Michigan Sports | CFB – Navy -3 |
| 25. | National Consensus Report | CFB – Kentucky +6 |
?[h=2]Bonus Play from Jim Feist[/h][FONT="]Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Friday October 16, 2020
10/16 06:30 PM PT / 9:30 PM ET
CF (109) BYU VS (110) HOUSTON
Take: over
Reason: Houston finally got to play a game last week and their offense showed no rust in a 49-31 blowout of Tulane. Meanwhile, the 15th ranked BYU Cougars have improved to 4-0 on the season. QB Zach Wilson has been amazing for the Cougars, completing 81% of his passes and passing for over 300 yards in every game so far. The Cougars had their first close game last week in a win over UTSA, 27-20. It was the first time this season the defense allowed 10 points or more. The Houston offense piled up the points last week, but did have five turnovers. They won't be able to do that against this Cougars team this week. BYU and their secondary get their first real test here on Friday against this Houston offense. I expect a lot of scoring here as both offenses have plenty of weapons to light the scoreboard. Your Bonus Play is on the OVER.
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10/16 06:30 PM PT / 9:30 PM ET
CF (109) BYU VS (110) HOUSTON
Take: over
Reason: Houston finally got to play a game last week and their offense showed no rust in a 49-31 blowout of Tulane. Meanwhile, the 15th ranked BYU Cougars have improved to 4-0 on the season. QB Zach Wilson has been amazing for the Cougars, completing 81% of his passes and passing for over 300 yards in every game so far. The Cougars had their first close game last week in a win over UTSA, 27-20. It was the first time this season the defense allowed 10 points or more. The Houston offense piled up the points last week, but did have five turnovers. They won't be able to do that against this Cougars team this week. BYU and their secondary get their first real test here on Friday against this Houston offense. I expect a lot of scoring here as both offenses have plenty of weapons to light the scoreboard. Your Bonus Play is on the OVER.
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